wildfire in colorado: understanding the role of social interactions and risk perceptions in shaping...

Wildfire in Colorado: Understanding the role of social interactions and

risk perceptions in shaping households’ mitigation behaviors

Katie DickinsonWorking with Hannah Brenkert-Smith,

Patricia Champ, and Nicholas Flores

Katie Dickinson, environmental economist

Research interest: What motivates individual actions that affect environmental, health, and economic outcomes?

Past projects:- Sanitation choices in India- Malaria prevention and treatment

behaviors in Tanzania- Mosquito control in Wisconsin

Current projects at NCAR:- Wildfire mitigation behaviors in

Colorado- Cookstove use and meningitis in

Ghana- Hurricane warning information and

evacuation decisions in Miami

Overarching questions:

How do social networks shape behaviors?

How can a better understanding of human behaviors inform more effective

policies and programs?

What benefits and costs do people consider when making decisions in the

face of risk?

Relevance to NCAR:Understanding the societal impacts of weather and climate requires an understanding

of behavioral responses to risk

Wildfire Study: Definitions

• Wildfire in Colorado: Understanding the role of social interactions and risk perceptions in shaping households’ mitigation behaviors



• Risk: Probability of fire occurring times consequences (or impacts) of fire (damage to own house & property, loss of life or other health impacts, psychological impacts…)



• Risk perceptions: Individual’s assessment of probability and consequences of fire



• Mitigation behaviors: Actions taken by homeowner to reduce (perceived) wildfire risk, including structural changes to the home (e.g., fire-resistant roofing) and actions to reduce fuels (e.g., creating a “defensible space” around the home).



• Social interactions: Contact between individuals within social groups. Can include group or 1-on-1 interactions, organized or spontaneous, issue-focused or generic.

Wildfire Study: Basic Model

MFire Mitigation Behaviors

RRisk Perceptions

SSocial Interactions

• Social group gives information about fire risk, changing my risk perception

• Neighbor removes dead trees, lowering my risk (risk interdependency)

• Attending fire event teaches me how to install screens over vents (learning)

• Neighborhood group launches campaign to get everyone to “do their part” (social norms)

Wildfire Study: Methods

• Social survey data collection– 700 homeowners in Boulder and Larimer Counties

(Colorado) surveyed via internet and mail in 2007– Repeat survey after big fires in fall of 2010– Survey includes extensive questions on social

interactions, risk perceptions, behaviors, and household characteristics

• Quantitative statistical analysis to infer relationships between variables in our dataset

Wildfire Study: Snapshot

MFire Mitigation Behaviors

RRisk Perceptions

SSocial Interactions

Social amplification of wildfire risk: Are measures of social interaction and information sources related to

risk perceptions?

Probability

ConsequencesDamage to own houseDamage to own land

Damage to neighbors’ propertyDamage to public lands

Social Interactions

Generic Informal Proximity to neighbors

Frequency of interaction with neighbors

Generic Formal Participation in social groups and

community groups

Perceived Wildfire Risk

Fire-specific Informal Talking with neighbors about fire

Reporting that neighbors have taken action

Fire-specific Formal Attending fire-related event

Personal Characteristics

Location, Age, Gender, Income, Previous Wildfire Experience, Parcel Characteristics

Results: Social Amplification of Risk

• Wildfire risk perceptions are associated with social interaction measures

• Fire-specific interactions are associated with more risk perception measures than generic interactions– Talking with neighbors about fire is associated with

higher perceived fire probability and consequences– Reporting that neighbors took action before you

decreases perceived probability of fire• But generic interactions also matter

Wildfire Study Challenges

• Correlation does not equal causation– Do I think fire is more likely because

I talked to my neighbor about fire?– Or did I talk to my neighbor because

I thought fire was more likely?

• Possible solutions: – 2010 data… Looking at changes in

perceptions and behavior over time– Experimental approaches… “lab” or

field

M

R

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Summary

• Social science perspective can aid in understanding human behaviors in the face of weather and climate risks

• In the wildfire context, interactions with neighbors, social contacts, and experts may shape risk perceptions and mitigation actions– Risk interdependency: what I do affects your risk

• Getting people to act “better” isn’t just a matter of delivering more information

wildfire in colorado: understanding the role of social interactions and risk perceptions in shaping...

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