wildfire risk mapping for the insurance industry susanne haas, university of cologne
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Wildfire Risk Mapping for the Insurance Industry Susanne Haas, University of Cologne Ulrich Ebel, Swiss Re. ( Reuters/ Mike Stone ). Content. Content. Image: www.guardian.co.uk. ( Reuters/ Mike Stone). I Monetary losses caused by wildfires II Measuring the susceptibility towards - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Wildfire Risk Mapping for the Insurance Industry
Susanne Haas, University of CologneUlrich Ebel, Swiss Re
( Reuters/ Mike Stone)
ContentI Monetary losses caused by wildfires
II Measuring the susceptibility towards particularly large wildfires
∙ the Fire Radiative Power as an indicator ∙ Comparison of FRP measurements amongst regions
III Comparison of the different fire hazard maps
IV PROs & CONs
V Cat net: the number of wildfires above 600MW
Image: www.guardian.co.uk( Reuters/ Mike Stone)
Content
Monetary losses caused by wildfires
Source: Insurance Services Office Source: Insurance Matters
1
The Fire Radiative Power as an indicator for particularly large wildfires
Fireline Intensity (kW/m)
MODIS Active Fire Data (MCD14ML)
Fire Radiative Power (MW/pixel)
2
Comparison of FRP measurements amongst regions
Source: Wikipedia
Source: Holmes et. al 2007
3
Comparison of FRP measurements amongst regions
4
Comparison of FRP measurements amongst regions
5
Comparison of FRP measurements amongst regions
6
Validation & Comparison of the results
7
PROs & CONs
Pareto alpha estimation
Maximum FRP Fires above 600mW
+ proven statistical model
+ the potential for ultra large fires can be displayed
+ the frequency of large events is accounted for
- threshold selection & fit are critical
- the frequency of large fire events is neglected
- empirical threshold selection- peak events are neglected
8
Cat Net: the number of wildfires with a FRP above 600 MW
9
