wildfire smoke forecasting nc-daq 7/13/2011 photo credit: rob shackleford, ncdfr the daq air quality...
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Wildfire Smoke Forecasting
NC-DAQ7/13/2011
Photo credit: Rob Shackleford, NCDFR
The DAQ Air Quality Forecast TeamNick WitcraftChris MisenisElliot TardifCassie Mentha
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Why bother forecasting big smoke plumes?
• Smoke from wildfires contains a very large amount of fine particulate matter (also known as PM), which is very unhealthy to breathe, and also smells really bad.
• Remember when smoke settled over the Raleigh area a few weeks ago?
• It’s important to tell where the wildfire smoke is going to go, and about how much of it there will be.
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So how can we tell where the smoke plume is now, and what are the
concentrations?
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Visible satellite imagery
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MODIS Satellite Imagery
http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/images/terra/true_color/2011_05_24_144/t1.11144.USA8.143.1000m.jpg
July 4, 2011
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Pains Bay burn scar on MODIS
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Monitoring stations can tell us where the smoke plume is by how high the PM concentrations are.
June 21, 2011 – Smoke from Pender fire reaches Raleigh
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Special monitoring stations are set up around the fire to aid in tracking and forecasting smoke plumes
Stumpy Point, NC – May 31, 2011
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We can get an idea of where the plume is going, and how dense the
plume is, based on surface observation and visibility
information.
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Visibility Guide
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• We also get an idea of how much smoke there is based on reports from officials on the ground who are fighting the fire.
• More smoke means more particle pollution over a greater area.
Photo Credit: Donnie Harris, USFWS
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Where is the plume heading? Based on the forecast winds.
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HYSPLIT
•Use HYSPLIT model to generate forecast plumes
•Along with predicted winds, gives an idea of where smoke will head
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• We put all of this information together to issue special Air Quality Alerts to areas that may be affected by the smoke.
• These Air Quality Alerts are carried to the public by the news media, the National Weather Service, and NCDAQ press releases.
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The End