wildfires risk reduction from forests contaminated by ... · a case study of the chernobyl nuclear...
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Wildfires risk reduction from forests
contaminated by radionuclides:
A case study of the Chernobyl Nuclear
Power Plant exclusion zone
Sergiy Zibtsev, National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of
Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine (NUBiP of Ukraine)
Chadwick D. Oliver, Global Institute of Sustainable Forestry, Yale University
Johann G. Goldammer, Global Fire Monitoring Center, Freiburg University,
Freiburg, Germany
Aaron Hohl, Humboldt State University, Arcata, CA, USA
James McCarter, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
Andrew Niccolai, Aviation Branch, U.S. Coast Guard R&D Center, U.S.A.
Mykhaylo Petrenko, Olexandr Borsuk, NUBiP of Ukraine 1
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Outline
• Disaster on Chernobyl NPP and radioactive
contamination
• Forestry and forests in the Chernobyl exclusion zone
(CEZ)
• Fuel loading, Fire history, regional level threats
• Doses for firefighters
• Regional Health risk assesment
• Modeling of fire risks
• Conclusions and recommendations
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Disaster on Chernobyl NPP,
26 Apr 1986
• An area of more than 200 000 km2 in Europe was contaminated above 0.04 MBq of 137Cs/m2 (IAEA,06);
• Most contaminated is Chernobyl exclusion zone (CEZ) with area 2600 km2 : 90Sr, 137Cs, 154Eu, 238Pu, 239,240Pu, and 241Am;
• Total amount of radionuclides that eventually could be mobilized by a catastrophic wildfire is - 2.1×1014 Bq (Hohl et.al);
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Radioactive contamination of CEZ
137Cs 238Pu
239-240Pu
241Pu 241Am
4
90Sr
Source: www.uiar.org.ua
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Radioactive waste in the CEZ as a potential
threat during wildfires
5 http://chernobel.tk
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Tree species distribution in CEZ and fire
dangerous classes
6
Species
Scotch Pine Birch Aspen
Oak Alder
Fire
dangerous
classes
1
2
3
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Forests and forest management in the
Chernobyl Exclusion zone
7
Total area of CEZ– 260 000 ha
Total area of forests 150 000 ha
Scotch Pine forests 89 000 ha
Total growing stock 30 mln m3
Total stock of died trees ~ 2 mln m3
Age structure:
≤ 40 years old - 23%,
40-60 years old - 67%
Plan for thinning in CEZ (2006):
8600 ha (407 thou m3)
Executed thinning:
680 ha (24 thou m3)
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Lack of management and impact of
diseases, insects and fires as a result
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Fuel loading in Scotch Pine forests in CEZ
1.6
3.3
1.8
2.7 2.9
3.6 3.9
0.9
7.3
19.0
11.9
21.4
55.7
13.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
22 37 40 44 48 53 64
Sto
ck
of
de
ad
wo
od
, м
3/h
а
Age, years
Fo
res
t li
tte
r ,c
m
Вік, років Потужність підстилки, см
Лежачий сухостій, м3/га
Forest litter, centimeters
Downed deadwood, m3/ha
OCBITA, НАУКА ТА ІННОВАЦІЇ У ЛІСОВОМУ I САДОВО-ПАРКОВОМУ ГОСПОДАРСТВІ УКРАЇНИ В KOHTEKCTI РЕГІОНАЛЬНИХ ТА
ГЛОБАЛЬНИХ ВИКЛИКІВ, КИЇВ, НУБіП УКРАЇНИ, 30 ВЕРЕСНЯ - 2 ЖОВТНЯ 2010 Р.
180.64
151.18
301.93 354.23 327.80 427.56 362.79
15.31
45.75 29.52 39.40 34.75 31.34
32.37
2.68 7.17 21.84 14.56 14.80 9.94 11.10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
22 37 40 44 48 53 64
Здорові
Ослаблені
Сухостій
Health trees
Declined trees
Dead trees
Growing stock of declined trees and deadwood, m3/ha
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Mapped wildfires, burned forests and forests
damaged by insects in CEZ (92-10)
10
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Fire history in CEZ
11 Distribution of wildfires in CEZ during fire season and day
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Regional impact of wildfires from
contaminated zones Picture - courtesy of Ukrainian Land Resources Management Centre, image from 8 of May 2003
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Populated area on South vicinity of the CEZ (Ivankiv rayon)
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Prevention measures in CEZ
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Fire forces and fire fighting
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Experimental assessment of doses for
firefighters from wildfires in CEZ (Yoschenko, et al, UIAR, Project #1992 ICTU)
Density of contamination with 39+240Pu, kBq/m2
0,4 1 4 10 20 40 100 400 1000
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Experimental assessment of doses for
firefighters from ground and grass fires in CEZ (1 hour exposition) (Yoschenko, et al, UIAR, Project #1992 ICTU)
Maximum airborne
concentration, Bq m-3, in
the site
Dose type Dose, Sv, in the site
#1 #2 #3 #1 #2 #3
137Cs 5 1 0.27 External from
the cloud
6.910-4 1.410-4 3.7·10-5
Inhalation 610-2 1.210-2 3.2·10-3
90Sr 3 0.5 0.33 External from
the cloud
10-4 1.710-5 1.1·10-5
Inhalation 0.24 4.110-2 2.6·10-2
238Pu 3.410-3 2.510-4 4.6·10-4 Inhalation 7.1 0.53 1
239+240Pu 6.710-3 5.110-4 1.1·10-3 Inhalation 17 1.3 2.8
External irradiation from soil and vegetation 16 10 4.2
Total dose 40 12 8
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Summary: Features of the exclusion zone
as a radioactive wildfire prone area
• Highly radioactive contamination territory
• Fire prone ecosystems
• Dangerous for firefighters
• Possible regional impact
• Lack of forest and fire management
• Lack of suppression capacity
• Absence of early warning
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International efforts aimed in reduction of radioactive wildfires risk in the CEZ
Yale University School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
OSCE
Council of Europe
Global Fire Monitoring Center
(GFMC)
http://research.yale.edu/gisf/EDSC/Chernobyl/chernobyl_ftp.htm
Ministry of Emergencies of Ukraine
National University of Life and
Environmental Sciences of Ukraine
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Modeling of fire risks and scenarios
Pilot area:
Ditiatki forest
district
Area 10 000
ha in CEZ
Burned forest in 1992 (5 000 ha in CEZ)
Stand groups are named for a three part classification: B =
broadleaf, C = conifer; Site class 1-4; Age class 1-3.
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Thin 2
Thin 1
2006
2021
2036
Modeling of fire risks and scenarios
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Health Risk: Conceptual Model
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Deforested lands,
former agricultural
32% Sands, swampy,3% Scotch Pine
forests, 38%
Lakes, 10%
Villages, roads 7%
Distribution of lands in the Chernobyl Exclusion
Zone according to 1996 inventory
Deciduous forests, 10%
Source Model: Fire prone lands
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Source Model: Radionuclide Distribution
Radionuclide Radionuclide Inventory (Bq) Ratio Combustible/Soil
Soil in 2000
Soil in 2010
Combustible in 2010 Forest Grassland
90Sr 7.7E+14 6.1E+14 1.5E+14 0.351 0.023 137Cs 2.8E+15 2.2E+15 5.8E+13 0.101 0.037 154Eu 1.4E+13 6.4E+12 8.5E+10 0.031 0.005 238Pu 7.2E+12 6.7E+12 8.4E+10 0.03 0.004 239,240Pu 1.5E+13 1.5E+13 2.0E+11 0.031 0.005 241Am 1.8E+13 1.8E+13 4.7E+11 0.062 0.01
1
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Transport Model: Resuspension & Ground
concentration
Gaussian plume model
– Air concentration downwind depends on
• Fraction of time per event that wind blows toward the target (assumed 90%)
• Diffusion factor (assumed Pasquill-Gifford stability class D)
• Wind speed (assumed 2 m/s)
– Ground concentration depends on
• Deposition velocity (assumed 1000 m/d)
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Exposure Model
• Total dose is sum of:
– Inhalation
– Cloud immersion
– Ground exposure
– Ingestion (for foodstuffs including milk, meat, and
crops)
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Exposure Model: Inhalation
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Results: Total exposure of Adults
Distance Immersion Ground.Exposure Inhalation Ingestion Total (km) (mSv/a) (mSv/a) (mSv/a) (mSv/a) (mSv/a)
Adult Adult Adult
25 1.8E-04 2.1 1.7 14 17 50 6.4E-05 7.2E-01 6.1E-01 4.8 6.2
100 2.2E-05 2.6E-01 2.2E-01 1.7 2.1 150 1.2E-05 1.4E-01 1.2E-01 9.1E-01 1.2
Estimated effective dose for the critical population
after a catastrophic wildfire.
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Conclusion
• Results suggest substantial risk of large wildfires.
• Wildfire would not, under Ukrainian law, require resettlement, evacuation, or limitation of time spent outdoors for populations living outside of CEZ.
• Limitations of consumption of foodstuffs might be required.
• A series of activities by Ukrainian and international scientists, global citizens, administrators, and policymakers is leading to a promising outcome: to the decision of the Ukrainian government to initiate measures to prevent them.
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Conclusions and recommendations
• Urgent steps that should be taken in Chernobyl exclusion zone related with installation of advanced automated early warning system, implementation of individual protection means for fire fighters and fast response capacity increasing.
• Second package should include silvicultural measures aimed in long-term reduction of fire dangerous in forests, developing of DSS for prevention of catastrophic radioactive wildfires, modeling of risks and doses
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Conclusions and recommendations
• International procedures for fire monitoring and fire
fighting operation should be approved by Governments
of Ukraine, Byelorussia and Russia for better co-
ordination in emergencies situation
• Classification of others wildfire prone territories in the
world with additional risks (radioactive, chemical
contamination, explosive etc) should be developed.
Special safe procedures for fire management should be
implemented
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Acknowledgements
• We thank Dr. V.A. Kashparov and Dr. V.I. Yoschenko
of the Ukrainian Institute of Agricultural Radiology,
and Dr. Y. Goksu for critically reviewing some of the
work presented here.
• Our work has been supported by the Chopivsky
Family Foundation, Global Fire Monitoring Center,
the Global Institute of Sustainable Forestry at Yale
University, National University of Life and
Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, and Humboldt
State University
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Thank you for attention!
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