@nationalandlord @PorticoProp#postbrexit

2

HOUSE PRICES SINCE 1995House prices have continued to increase, with London now 63% above the pre-crash high of 2007.

Great Recession

Source: Land Registry Website

#postbrexit

1995

-01

1995

-06

1995

-11

1996

-04

1996

-09

1997

-02

1997

-07

1997

-12

1998

-05

1998

-10

1999

-03

1999

-08

2000

-01

2000

-06

2000

-11

2001

-04

2001

-09

2002

-02

2002

-07

2002

-12

2003

-05

2003

-10

2004

-03

2004

-08

2005

-01

2005

-06

2005

-11

2006

-04

2006

-09

2007

-02

2007

-07

2007

-12

2008

-05

2008

-10

2009

-03

2009

-08

2010

-01

2010

-06

2010

-11

2011

-04

2011

-09

2012

-02

2012

-07

2012

-12

2013

-05

2013

-10

2014

-03

2014

-08

2015

-01

2015

-06

2015

-11

2016

-04

2016

-09£0

£100,000

£200,000

£300,000

£400,000

£500,000

£600,000

England And Wales London

Credit Crunch

The Lending Boom

Brexit

Stamp Duty Change

LONDON vs ENGLAND/ WALES AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES 1995-2016

StampDuty 3%

Price: £

3

A REMINDER OF THE PREVIOUS CRISIS

Source: Land Registry Website

#postbrexit

Volume recovery 3

months before price

Volume halved, prices

dropped

Volumedrop 6mths before price

2007-01

2007-02

2007-03

2007-04

2007-05

2007-06

2007-07

2007-08

2007-09

2007-10

2007-11

2007-12

2008-01

2008-02

2008-03

2008-04

2008-05

2008-06

2008-07

2008-08

2008-09

2008-10

2008-11

2008-12

2009-01

2009-02

2009-03

2009-04

2009-05

2009-06

2009-07

2009-08

2009-09

2009-10

2009-11

2009-12£0

£50,000

£100,000

£150,000

£200,000

£250,000

£300,000

£350,000

£400,000

£450,000

£500,000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

averagePrice SalesVolume

LONDON AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES vs VOLUME 2007-2009Price: £ Volume

4

CENTRAL LONDON: WHAT WE SAID LAST YEAR IN 2015 Central London has shown a dramatic volume decline;Is this just a Central London issue or is there a risk of contagion?

Jan-

14Fe

b-14

Mar-1

4Ap

r-14

May-

14Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4Au

g-14

Sep-

14Oc

t-14

Nov-

14De

c-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar-1

5Ap

r-15

May-

15Ju

n-15

Jul-1

5Au

g-15

Sep-

15

800,000

825,000

850,000

875,000

900,000

925,000

950,000

975,000

1,000,000

1,025,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500CENTRAL LONDON: PRICE VS VOLUME: 2015

PriceVolume

Volume in Prime Central London has halved

Prices likely to follow

Price: £ Volume

Source: Land Registry Website (Westminster)

#postbrexit

5

CENTRAL LONDON: TAX CHANGE / #POSTBREXIT EFFECT?

Source: Land Registry Website (Westminster)

#postbrexit

Volume dropped below 100 with April tax changes

2014-01

2014-02

2014-03

2014-04

2014-05

2014-06

2014-07

2014-08

2014-09

2014-10

2014-11

2014-12

2015-01

2015-02

2015-03

2015-04

2015-05

2015-06

2015-07

2015-08

2015-09

2015-10

2015-11

2015-12

2016-01

2016-02

2016-03

2016-04

2016-05

2016-06

2016-07

2016-08

2016-09

2016-10

2016-11

2016-12

2017 -01

£0

£200,000

£400,000

£600,000

£800,000

£1,000,000

£1,200,000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

averagePrice SalesVolume

CENTRAL LONDON PRICE vs VOLUME 2014-2017

Monthly year on year now

-60% in volume for more than

6mths

September -1.1% in price

vs 2015

VolumePrice: £

Portico Forecast

April Stamp Duty

Change

6

GREATER LONDON: TAX CHANGE / #POSTBREXIT EFFECT?

Source: Land Registry Website

#postbrexit

Portico forecast – Prices continue at

+10% YOY, until early next yearwhilst volumes

continue to decline

Downward trend

interrupted by tax changes

2014

-01

2014

-02

2014

-03

2014

-04

2014

-05

2014

-06

2014

-07

2014

-08

2014

-09

2014

-10

2014

-11

2014

-12

2015

-01

2015

-02

2015

-03

2015

-04

2015

-05

2015

-06

2015

-07

2015

-08

2015

-09

2015

-10

2015

-11

2015

-12

2016

-01

2016

-02

2016

-03

2016

-04

2016

-05

2016

-06

2016

-07

2016

-08

2016

-09

2016

-10

2016

-11

2016

-12

2017

-01£0

£50,000

£100,000

£150,000

£200,000

£250,000

£300,000

£350,000

£400,000

£450,000

£500,000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Average Price Volume

LONDON AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES vs VOLUME 2014-2017

Feb 2016–July 2016 -20% volume decline

Price: £ Volume

Portico Forecast

Oct 2015–July 2016 -42% volume decline

7

WHAT FACTORS MAY IMPACT RENTAL PRICES?

Less landlords/properties to the market

AirBnB decreasing long term stockAverage tenancy lengths increasing

SUPPLY: SET TO DECREASE DEMAND: SET TO INCREASE

Supply / demand imbalance likely to increase rental prices and

weaker transaction prices may result in higher rental yields

London population still growingLondon job market still strong

Fewer tenants buying

#postbrexit

8

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YIELDS – LOOKING BACKIn 2014 there were already parts of central London with yields below 4% but there were still many areas with 5-6+%

Yields %(Oct 14)

>6%

5 – 6%

4 – 5%

<4%

Source: Portico Internal Analysis

2014

#postbrexit

9

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YIELDS – LAST YEARBy 2015 we had 4 boroughs which were below 3% in terms of yield and a much higher number of boroughs below 4%

Yields %(Oct 15)

>6%

5 – 6%

4 – 5%

3 - 4%

Source: Portico Internal Analysis

2015

#postbrexit

<3%

10

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YIELDS – THIS YEARIn 2016 we have 5 boroughs which were below 3% in terms of yield and almost all boroughs, with the exception of 3 (Haringey, Newham and Barking & Dagenham), at 3-4%

Yields %(Oct 15)

>6%

5 – 6%

4 – 5%

3 - 4%

Source: Portico Internal Analysis

2016

#postbrexit

<3%

But 2017 likely to revert the trend to give better

Yields

11

RESOURCES FOR LANDLORDSEven more important to optimise your portfolio in the best way possible, and if you are investing further know by street where is best

YIELD MAP

INSTANTVALUATION

–Check how much a property is worth instantly

–Portico.com/valuation

portico.com

INVESTMENT PROPERTIES

–Find out which street is best –Live market data –Portico.com/yields

#postbrexit

–17 offices across London–The team are here today–Osbournes Solicitors & Capricorn Financial Advisers here today