Will cattle ranching continue to drive deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon?

Paulo BarretoSenior Researcher at IMAZON

15% deforested up to 2009

Pastureland ocupies 75% of the area deforested

Will cattle ranching continue to drive deforestation?

Predominant trends Critical uncertainties

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Scenarios

What has driven deforestation?

Policies to occupy the Amazon

InfrastructureColonization

projectsSubsidized rural

creditTax breaks

Demand for agricultural commodities stimulated deforestation

What has made Brazil more effective against deforestation?

Reduction of leniency with crimes < 5% of the value of fines collected

Drought in Amazon - 2005

www.panoramio.com/photos/original/4110363.jpg 280,000 people affected

EE

~40% of Brazilian Emissions of Greenhouse gases

Less than 1% of GDP

Market risk2006 – soy moratorium

Biofuels and indirect

deforestation

New measures against deforestation in 2008

Illegal operations

Credit restriction

Embargo of areas illegally

deforested

Buyers of products from embargoed

areas liable to penalties

Increased confiscation

Confiscation of 3,000 cattle inside protected area

June 2008

• Auctioned after two months

Deforestation declined despite the increase of soy and cattle prices

Will cattle ranching continue to drive deforestation?

Predominant trends

Growing demand for food

Demand for environmental

protectionSocioeconomic impacts of the application of

environmental laws

Pressure for economic growth.

Critical uncertainties

Reduction of legal forest protection?

Support for the implementation of

laws?

Size of the clandestine beef

market?

Scenarios

Low deforestation

Medium deforestation

High deforestation

Low deforestation scenario

Low deforestation

No reduction of legal protection

Enforcement of environmental laws

Support for the implementation of

law

Beef industry demanding

deforestation-free cattleRanchers organize to overcome barriers to

the implementation of the law.

Medium deforestation scenario

Medium deforestation.

No significant reduction of legal

protection

Enforcement of environmental laws

No support for the implementation of

law

Beef industry buys from legal

deforestation.Clandestine industry

buys from ilegal deforestation.Small landholders

free to deforest illegally.

High deforestation scenario

High deforestation.

Reduction of legal protection

Enforcement of environmental laws

No support for the implementation of

law

Beef industry buys from legal

deforestation.Clandestine industry

buys from ilegal deforestation.Small landholders

free to deforest illegally.

Low deforestation scenario

Low deforestation

No reduction of legal protection.

Enforcement of environmental laws

Support for the implementation of

law

Beef industry demanding

deforestation-free cattleRanchers organize to overcome barriers to

the implementation of the law.

REDD