Will the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?

Basics of the Malthusian dilemma Today: 1 person 1 Unit 25 yrs 2 persons 2 units 50 years 4 persons 3 units 75 years 8 persons 4 units

People are doubling, but food is not!

Food & Population, 1950-2000Malthus vs. Actual Trends

Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

Neo-Malthusians Maybe Malthus was right?

› Poor countries = more rapid pop growth; tech = people living longer

› Outstripping of resources = increase in wars and civil violence

Criticisms of Malthus› World supply of resources is not fixed –

possibilism› Technological advances offset scarcity› Larger pop stimulates economic growth

Marxists› The issue with resources isn’t population growth– it is

unfair distribution of resources and corrupt governing structures

Against the grain… The Myth of Overpopulatio

n?

Fuel Wood Collection in Mali

Crude Birth Rate Decline, 1980-2005

Fig. 2-21: Crude birth rates declined in most countries during the 1980s and 1990s (though the absolute number of births per year increased from about 120 to 130 million).

- 2nd highest population in the world

shortages of food and water less healthy therefore less productive work force

greater demand for natural resource consumption

higher level of environmental degradation resulting from such

consumption.

- Pressing for sterilization over temporary contraceptives

India

-Rapid population growth after creation of People’s Republic of China

- “Great Leap Forward”1958- ”Late, Long, and Few” 1960s

- One Child Policy 1979-present

- Female infanticide?

China “Of all the things in the world, people are the most precious.”- Mao Zedong, 1949

Low levels of secondary education correlate to lack of knowledge/use of

birth control methods

A survey reported several respondents knowing of a contraceptive method

(76%), but only 28% were currently using one, and fewer than half (47%)

reported ever having used one

Many surveyed did not make the connection between

contraceptive use and higher

standards of living

[International Planning

Perspectives, 1999)

Nigeria

TFR of 3-8 per family

The UN Population Fund has spent more than half a billion dollars on contraception in the Philippines in the past two decades. –Catholic church is so hostile that it is now planning to

pull out of more than half of the 21 provinces.

1/5of 15 to 24-year-old girls in the Philippines have had an abortion.

The Philippines

Baby Boom in

the Philippin

es

Women Using Family Planning

Use of Family Planning Demand is actually greater than supply in most LDCs

Bangladesh – 6% in 1950s – 58% using them in 2006

Especially low in Africa – 25% - econ, religion, education

High birth rates = low status of women – many children = status of women and virility of men

Fig. 2-22: Both the extent of family planning use and the methods used vary widely by country and culture.

Family Planning Methods used in three countries

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