william glavin - investing in the 21st century
DESCRIPTION
William Glavin addressed the Worcester Economic Club on November 19, 2013.TRANSCRIPT
Shares of Oppenheimer funds are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency and involve investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.Oppenheimer funds are distributed by OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. Two World Financial Center, 225 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10281-1008© 2013 OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. All rights reserved.
BILL GLAVIN
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
OPPENHEIMERFUNDS, INC.
INVESTING IN THE 21ST CENTURY
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About OppenheimerFundsEconomic Overview: The Bad and Good
AGENDA
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Domestic Equity$46.6
Global Equity$79.5
Domestic Debt$56.7
Global Debt$21.5
Alternatives/Multi-Asset$17.8
OppenheimerFunds, Inc. & its Subsidiaries
Founded in 1960 Privately held firm with majority
ownership by MassMutual since 199034 investment strategies $222.1B Assets Under Management
(As of 9/30/13)11 million accounts
(Assets in billions)
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CONVICTION THAT ACTIVE MANAGEMENT DELIVERS BETTER OUTCOMES
CONVICTION THAT A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE IS CRITICAL, ESPECIALLY NOW
CONVICTION THAT INDEPENDENT SMALL TEAMS OF SMART INVESTORS LEAD TO BETTER PERFORMANCE
CONVICTION THAT WE KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RISK AND RISKY
1 2
3 4
Creating Value Through High Conviction Investing“I was taking a different look at the familiar… rather than adhering to conventional wisdom.”
– Leon Levy, founder, (the original) Oppenheimer Fund
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Deficits declining Washington taking an incremental, short-term approach to
debt problemsRecent steps buy time but entitlement programs remain
burdensome
Economic Overview: The Real Numbers
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U.S. Deficits Declining
7.4%
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 201210
15
20
25
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U.S. Government Spending U.S. Government Receipts
% Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II ObamaGOVERNMENT OUTLAYS AND RECEIPTS AS A PERCENT OF GDP
Source: U.S. Treasury, 12/31/12.
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U.S. DEBT AS A PERCENTAGE OF NOMINAL GDP
Incremental Short-term Approach has Arrested Likely Growth in Debt to GDP for Next Decade
Source: Congressional Budget Office as of 8/31/13. *Forecasts may not be achieved.
2012 2013 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021* 2022*70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%No Government ActionRatio without Budget Control Act American Taxpayer
Relief Act Sequester
Government Action to Date Ratio with Budget Control Act American Taxpayer
Relief Act Sequester
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The Real Problems Begin to Emerge in Less Than 10 YearsU.S. BIRTHS 1940 - 1970
1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 19702.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5BABY BOOM
AVERAGE AGE: 57 YEARS OLD
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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TOTAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING AS % OF GDP (PROJECTED)Current Government Spending Unsustainable
Source: Congressional Budget Office Projections may not be achieved.
% o
f GD
P
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TOTAL DEBT AS % OF GDP (PROJECTED)Current Government Spending Unsustainable
Source: Congressional Budget Office Projections may not be achieved.
% o
f GD
P
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Technological and scientific advances led by the U.S. Unforeseen economic booms (global and domestic) U.S. benefits from further synergies from world economic integration Entitlements can be modified (they are only promises)
But, Things May Be Better Than They Seem…
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Developing economies helping drive growth Increased productivity and wealth across emerging markets Reorientation of Chinese economy
U.S. energy renaissance Companies have strong balance sheets and low valuations Global Megatrends (MANTRA) may help drive growth
Key Themes for the Future
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WORLD POPULATION (AS OF 12/31/12) CONSUMPTION GROWTH: EM VS. DM
Significant Growth Opportunities in Emerging Markets
Ann
ualiz
ed G
row
th
1990-2010 2010-2020E0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
7.6% 7.8%
4.5%
1.2%
BRICs G7Emerging MarketsDeveloped Markets
~6 billion
~1 billion
Source: The World Bank, 2012 and Goldman Sachs: “Global Consumer: An all consuming search for growth & consolidation,” 12/31/12. Estimates may not be achieved. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Wealth Is Rising Across Emerging Markets
Brazil +46%
United States +35%
Russia +49%
Turkey +66%
Germany +27%
Indonesia +83%
Malaysia +90%
Japan +14%
Vietnam +212%
India +168%
Source: The World Bank, 12/31/12. GDP (gross domestic product) is the total value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a given year. *Purchasing Power ParityPast performance does not guarantee future results.
GROWTH IN REAL GDP PER CAPITA (PPP*): 20 YEARS AS OF 12/31/12 China
+495%
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Myth:Coca Cola and Nestlé generate the majority of their
revenue in North America
Revenues No Longer Have Borders
Reality:Only 31% of Nestlé's revenues come from
“The Americas.”Only 45% of Coca Cola’s revenue is generated in
North America. Source of data: Bloomberg. As of November 14, 2013.The mention of specific companies does not constitute a recommendation by any Oppenheimer fund or by OppenheimerFunds, Inc. Certain Oppenheimer funds may hold the securities of those companies mentioned.
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MANTRA®
Mass Affluence New Technology AgingRestructuring
The mention of specific companies does not constitute a recommendation by any Oppenheimer fund or by OppenheimerFunds, Inc. Certain Oppenheimer funds may hold the securities of those companies mentioned.
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Poor politics Oil embargoes Emergent Asian superpower (Japan) Stagflation High interest rates Geopolitical uncertainty
1972-1982 2002-2012 Poor politics Oil price high and volatile Emergent Asian superpower (China) Europe directionless Loss of faith in fiat currencies Geopolitical uncertainty
The More Things Change the More they Stay the Same
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Special Risks: Foreign investments may be volatile and involve additional expenses and special risks, including currency fluctuations, foreign taxes and geopolitical risks. Emerging and developing market investments may be especially volatile.
Shares of Oppenheimer funds are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency, and involve investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.
Before investing in any of the Oppenheimer funds, investors should carefully consider a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Fund prospectuses and summary prospectuses contain this and other information about the funds, and may be obtained by asking your financial advisor, visiting oppenheimerfunds.com or calling 1.800.CALL OPP (225.5677). Read prospectuses and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
Oppenheimer funds are distributed by OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc.Two World Financial Center, 225 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10281-1008 © 2013 OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. All rights reserved.