william james sidis_a remark on the occurrence of revolutions

8/14/2019 William James Sidis_A Remark on the Occurrence of Revolutions

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A Remark on the Occurrenceof Revolutions

William James Sidis

Foreword by Boris Sidis

Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 1918, 13,213-228.

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FOREWORD TO "A REMARK ON THE THE OCCURRENCEOF REVOLUTIONS"

BORIS SIDIS

The following paper is timely and interesting from ascientific point of view in general and from apsychological standpoint in particular. The presentEuropean war is well termed a world war, the greatestwar of nations on the records of history, a war shakingsocial organizations with their conflicting instincts and

passions to the very foundations. This world maelstromin which nations, large and small, are caught unawares isfraught with events no one can foresee, withconsequences no contemporary can conceive. We havethe good fortune of living in one of the greatest epochs inthe history of mankind. Revolutionary changes are taking

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place on a gigantic scale under our very eyes withoutour realization of their trend and significance. We are inthe midst of the mad whirl of this raging world hurricaneso that our mental vision is obscured, our mind isparalyzed by the very magnitude of the furious struggleof frenzied social and psychic forces. No scientist, nostatesman can forecast any of the consequences,or estimate the meaning of the profound and extensivetransformations rapidly taking place in the nature ofsociety and man. This much we seem to feel and know,that humanity is in labor with big events which are far

beyond our ken, that society is in the throes of a newsocial order the character or even the outlines of whichcannot be discerned in this infernal confusion ofsupreme struggle of social elements and humanpassions. Man and society are now being forged into newforms, hammered by Vulcan blows of war and revolt.

If, however, things appear dark as to the outcome of

this great upheaval, some of its causes may be withinour grasp. Any ray of light, coming from whateverquarter, should be welcome. In this respect the presentcontribution may add its mite in regard to some of theproximate contributing causes of one of the greatestcatastrophes in the history of humanity. The merit of thiscontribution is that it advances in a general, thoughtentative way, one of the contributory causes of revoltsand revolutions, referring them to fundamentaleconomical conditions and psychic states, famine andcold, fear instinct and self-preservation, which in turn aretraced to variations of one central, cosmic source, tovariations of solar energy.

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When social forces become charged withrevolutionary ferment the governments under ordinaryfavorable conditions keep those forces in check bymeans of force exerted on the fear instinct, but thepangs of famine and the distress of cold with their resultsof disease and epidemic counteract the fear of force,arousing the fear instinct of death and the fundamentalinstinct of self-preservation, throwing the social organisminto convulsions of riots, revolts and revolutions. All thisthe author traces to variations of the central source of allterrestrial energyto variations of solar activities.

The writer, however, warns the reader not to takethis cosmic source as the sole cause of revolutions, butonly as one of the contributing factors, helping to turnthe scale when social discontent has accumulated, andrevolutionary forces are being ripened in thesubconscious depths of social life. The cosmic factor isthe trigger for the explosion and for the release of social,

revolutionary forces.

The general subject of revolutions is an interestingone for us at the present time. We have all been readingin the newspapers enough contradictory reports aboutthe state of affairs in Russia to arouse a widespreadinterest in the recent revolution in Russia. We read everynow and then of a new outbreak of revolt in the Austro-Hungarian Empire; an extensive revolt took place in theenemy countries only last winter; and the prospect,brought up by those events, of an actual revolution in

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Germany and Austria-Hungary, involve the possibility of acomplete change in the face of the present war.

Such being the present interest in the subject, I

venture to make a few remarks concerning the time whenrevolts and revolutions usually take place. I was led to myview on this subject by Taine's explanation of the FrenchRevolution of 1789 in "Les Origines de la FranceContemporaine." I take the liberty of quoting from thisbook: "L'hiver vint et fut le plus dur qu'on eut vu depuis1709. Des le printemps de 1789, la famine etait partout,et, de mois en mois, elle croissait comme une eau qui

monte. . . . Plus on approchait du 14 juillet, dit untemoin oculaire, plus la disette augmentait. . . . Pour avoirdu pain de chien, le people doit faire queue pendant desheures . . . De toutes parts, en mars, avril et mai,l'emeute eclate." ("The winter came and was the severestthat had been since 1709. From the spring of 1789 on,famine was everywhere, and, from month to month, itincreased like a rising flood. . . The closer one came to

July 14, the more the famine grew, said an eye-witness. . .To get a dog's bread, the people must stand in line forhours. . . From all sides, in March, April, and May, riotbroke loose.") This suggests that the real cause of theFrench Revolution coming in the summer of 1789 was notthe dissolution of the States-General, but rather a generalfamine accompanied by a prevailing "inflammation of thethroat and intestinal pain," caused in turn by the badbread resulting from a poor crop due to summer hail anda cold winter. In other words, the French Revolution tookplace in 1789 rather than four or five years earlier orlater, because the winter of 1788 was extremely cold.

Taine's explanation of the French Revolution bears aremarkable resemblance to that of the Russian

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Revolution contained in the first official bulletin of thePetrograd Soviet, issued March 13, 1917. This bulletinbegins: "The old regime has reduced the country tocomplete ruin, and the people to starvation. It was

impossible to endure it further. The population ofPetrograd went out into the streets to demonstrate theirdiscontent. They were met with bullets. Instead of breadthe Imperial government gave the people a stone." TheRussian Revolution was, according to this, based on ahunger strike.

This suggests the idea that revolutions and revolts in

general (a revolt being a revolution that has not quitesucceeded) are connected in some way or other withdirect, obvious, physical discomfort, especially hunger,and possibly lack of clothing and fuel. Not that I wish tobe interpreted as saying that this is the cause ofrevolutions; the causes are quite different. A match willcause an explosion in a powder magazine, but not in atank of water; and similarly a famine will bring about a

revolution in a society where the underlying conditionsare such as to favor the spread of such ideas and whereother proper circumstances are present.

Now, all such matters as lack of nutrition and lack ofheat are dependent in great degree on the climate. In acold country, a severe winter is directly a cause ofphysical discomfort; people freeze in such weather.Further, the early frosts preceding a cold winter lessenthe crop, transportation becomes difficult, and generallya famine is more likely to result in such a year. In a warmcountry, a similar result occurs when the summer isexcessively hot, the heat parching and drying the cropsso that food is scarce.

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It may be interesting to note that Professor Jevonshas advanced a meteorological theory to explain theperiodicity of industrial crises. Industrial crises usuallyappear about once in ten years. Jevons ascribes this to a

periodicity in the climate, causing, in cases of cold years,poor crops, and therefore a failure of everythingdependent on the crops, including the banking system,and through that, the whole industrial system. Thisperiodicity in the crops, which would directly concern thesubject of this article, Jevons ascribes to a well-knownperiodicity in the number of spots on the sun.

To explain this, I may say that sun spots are rifts inthe surface of the sun, exposing a lower layer. This lowerlayer gives less light and heat than the surface, andtherefore, the more spots there are on the sun, the lessheat the sun will give, and the cooler will be the climate.Now, astronomers have kept records of the number ofspots on the sun since the early part of the last century,and it has been found that this number of increases and

decreases in a period of eleven years approximately. Forexample, there was a maximum in 1905, a minimum in1911, and a maximum again in 1916. Jevons' theory wasthat the maxima of sun-spots cause cold weather, and,therefore, poor crops, resulting in industrial crises.1

The essential feature in this theory is that there is aperiodicity in the crops corresponding to the sun spots,this period being eleven years. This suggests thefollowing question: If the weather and the crops follow thenumber of sun-spots, might we not expect the occurrenceof revolutions also to be connected with the sun-spots?

The best way to answer this is by comparing the dates ofrevolutions with the dates of maxima and minima of sun-

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spots.

Since the record of sun-spots was kept only forabout a century, I have tried to select only revolutions in

the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, since previousrevolutions cannot easily be compared with the sun-spots. I have included in my list the great revolts thathave taken place, and even the first Balkan war, whichsomewhat partook of the nature of a revolt. The listcontains 33 revolts, of which seventeen occurred nearerthe minimum of sunspots than the maximum, and sixteenoccurred nearer the maximum. This looks unsatisfactory

at first sight, and as though there was no connection atall between revolts and sun-spots. But if we takeseparately the revolts that occurred near the maximumof sun-spots and those that occurred near the minimumdifferent results are obtained.2 For example, the list ofrevolts occurring near the minimum of sun-spots:

Minimum of 1811 180

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Tyrolese

revolt

1810

Revolt inMexico

Minimum of 1822 1820

Revolt inSpain

Revolt in

Italy

Revolt inSouthAmerica

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1821

Revolutionin Mexico


Carlist

revolt inSpain


Revolutionin Mexico

IndianMutiny


Revolutionin Japan


Brazilianrevolution


CubanRevolution

1898

Revolt inSpain


PortugueseRevolution

191

1

MexicanRevolution(Madero's)

1911

Chineserevolution

191 Balkan

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2 Wars

Compare these with the revolts taking place nearthe sun-spot maxima, as follows:

Maximum of 1828 1830

Revolutionin France

1831

Revolt inPoland

BelgianRevolution


Insurrections in Austria

Revolt inPrussia

ChartistUprising inEngland

Revolutionin France

1851

Tai-Ping

Rebellion inChina


ParisCommune

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Rebellion inRussia

Maximum of 19161917

Russian

Revolution

1917

Rebellion inGermany

1916

Dublin"Sinn Fein"Insurrection

1918

Rebellion inGermany

Rebellion inAustriaHungary

Uprising inQuebec

To the last list I would add others; as, for instance,the French Restoration in 1815 (maximum of 1816); theItalian and Russian Uprisings of 1914 (maximum of 1916);and the American Civil War (maximum of 1861).

If we examine the two lists, we will find that most ofthe revolts in the first list occurred in warm countries,while most of the revolts in the second list occurred incold countries.

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This would seem to indicate that there is actually aneleven-year period for revolutions corresponding to thesun-spots. In fact, if we take the above list of revolts innorthern countries, and try to calculate from that what

sort of period they could be fitted into easiest, themethod of least squares gives us that period: 11.07years. The period of sun-spots has been estimated at11.1 years. The average time of occurrence would begiven, for example, October 3, 1905; May 27, 1850, etc. Imay add that, in 1905, the most and largest sun-spotswere visible in September and October. The averagedeviation in the case of a period of 11 years would be

slightly over three years.

Similarly with the other revolts on the list. Theaverage period is found in the same way to be about 11.2years, with the average time of occurrence at variousdates down to April 8, 1911. Thus it appears that revoltsand revolutions take place in warm countries near theminimum of sun-spots, and in cold countries near the

maximum of sun-spots; in each case, when the weather issuch as to tend to poor crops.

However, I do not wish to be understood as sayingthat the sun-spots cause revolutions. An appearance ofsun-spots could not, by itself, produce revolution unlessother circumstances are already such as to cause therevolution. All such revolutions would occur anyway, evenwithout the sun-spot variations; but these sun-spot

variations super-add natural extremes of climate, causingnot only physical discomfort but danger to life and health,thus hastening a revolt that might otherwise have waitedfor a very long time.

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A government not based on the will of the peoplemust, in the nature of things, rule by fear, by keeping thepeople inconstant subjection; and the people will be keptin subjection as long as they can be made to fear. The

tendency of such oppression is to exasperate the peopleand excite them to desperate measures, especially if theoppression affects their means of livelihood. But ifcircumstances suddenly become such that many lives, orthe health of many people, are seriously threatened as byextreme cold, famine, &c., this super-adds the instinct ofself-preservation, and the fear is entirely counteracted.The power of the government to keep the people in

subjugation is weakened, and the rebellious tendenciescome to the foreground, resulting in open revolt. This willhappen especially, if there is a poor crop; and this

probably takes place every eleven years, in accordancewith the sun-spot variations.

In order to have a revolution at the proper time inthe sun-spot cycle, the revolutionary tendency must be

there already. This alone would produce rebellion, if leftto itself for maybe a generation or more; but the sun-spotcycle always comes in and hastens it, so that a rebellionwould usually occur at sun-spot maximum in coldercountries, and at a sun-spot minimum in warmercountries.

This rule would, therefore, apply only to the date ofthe beginning of a revolt; therefore all revolts included inmy list were dated from the time of the outbreak, and notof the culmination.

To illustrate the sun-spot periods from recenthistory. The recent sun-spot variations have been: 1900,

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minimum; 1905, maximum; 1911, minimum; 1916,maximum. Following a variation of three years in somecases from the exact date or the maximum or minimum,as the case may be, we will start with three years before

the minimum of 1900, that is, 1897. At this time we mayexpect revolts to take place in warm countries, and thissort of period lasts till 1903. After a hot summer, revoltbroke out in Cuba in the fall of 1897. The proximity ofCuba to the United States brought about Americanintervention in the shape of the Spanish-American War of1898. The Philippine Islands, which were annexed byUnited States, revolted in 1902. Even in 1903, revolt

broke out in Panama. But now, we are getting to theperiod of revolt for the northern countries, approaching1905. In 1903 the two branches of the Social DemocraticParty of Russia, the Bolsheviki and the Mensheviki, wereorganised, revolts were threatening in 1904, and theCzars government, threatened by this, proceeded tothrow its people into a fight against Japan. This attemptwas unsuccessful, and in 1905, at the time of the sun-

spot maximum, a revolutionary organisation wasestablished in Russia, only to be crushed. The last tracesof this revolt were, apparently, stamped out in WesternRussia by the aid of the German Government in 1906.

Now the scene shifts once more to the south, Wenow see uprisings in Turkey in 1908, in Portugal in 1910,in China (starting in the south) in 1911; Mexico also

started a revolution in 1911, the year of the sun-spotmaximum and of an unusually hot summer. In 1912 theattempt at liberation of the Balkans resulted in the Balkanwars.

A year later, the end of 1913, was the time midway

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between the minimum and maximum of sun-spots, and itwas to be expected that the scene would suddenly shiftback to the northern countries. In the spring of 1914 ageneral strike of a political nature (demanding abolition

of the three-class system of voting) took place inBelgium, forcing the Belgian government to appoint acommission to revise the electoral laws. The Socialists inPrussia made similar demands, and, when met with theusual Prussian disdain, replied "Wir werden belgischreden" (we will talk Belgian). The German Socialistsbegan to show openly their contempt for the Kaiser,3 andthe prospect of a German revolution loomed near, The

Irish were arming. There was also strong tendency towardrevolution in many other European nations.

In the mean time, the supposedly suppressedRussian revolt suddenly appeared. The President ofFrance was visiting Russia when the revolt broke out, andeverything pointed to general European uprising unlesssomething unusually desperate was done. The only

measure in sight was to start a general European war,and the ruler most threatened, the German Kaiser (forthe revolt in Russia was getting under control), took thestep.

Even that was a doubtful step. Socialists of allcountries were opposed to war, and they were verystrong in Germany and neighboring countries. Would they

fight? It was known that they intended to convene onAugust 23, to decide definitely what to do in case of war;and it was the middle of July before the actual magnitudeof the danger of revolution became obvious. War had tobe started, if at all, within a month. The result was, thatwar broke out with hardly any preliminary negotiations,

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many 24-hour and 48-hour ultimatums were sent, and thewar spread over almost all of Europe within the space ofone week.

The sun-spot maximum, however, was not due till1916, and 1916 was still to come. In 1916, there was arevolt in Irelanda small beginning, but one whichshowed that the revolutionary period had not yet ended.In 1917, at the end of a long cold winter, revolutionaryactivity in Russia revived and was finally successful; afterthat Germany and Austria were shaken with a greatnumber of revolts. There being about a year more before

the sun-spots were due to settle down to their averageactivity, the revolutionary period in northern countries isnot yet over, and there is still a possibility, if not aprobability, of an Austro-German revolution within thecoming year or so.

This illustrates the relation of the sun-spot period tocurrent events. A discontented people can be kept cowedby fear, by the use of force, as a general rule, in normaltimes; but when the instinct of self-preservation isaroused by hunger, cold, &c., the people are much moreready for revolt, and a previously existing discontent willbreak out openly. This is brought about by extremes inweather and failure of crops which take place in coldcountries at the sun-spot maximum, and in warmcountries at the sun-spot minimum.

___________

1 For various reasons I need not here specify, I do notagree with the theory of industrial crises advanced by

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Jevons.2 Table of sunspot variations:

Maxim

a Minima

1816 1811

1828 1822

1839 1834

1850 1845

1861 1856

1872 1867

---- ----

1894 1889

1905 1900

1916 1911

3 See Prince, "The Psychology of the Kaiser."

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