william solecki, phd - warszawa 21.10… · william solecki, phd • professor of geography, hunter...

William Solecki, PhD

• Professor of Geography, Hunter College, City University of New York • Co-Chair on the New York City Panel on Climate (NPCC) – funded by

City of New York • Co-PI – Climate Change Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN) –

funded by US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency • Co-PI – Transformation and Resilience in the Urban Coast (TRUC) –

funded by US National Science Foundation • Co-Investigator – Urban Resilience to Extreme Events (UrEX)

Sustainability Research Network – funded by US National Science Foundation

• Co-Founder and co-lead – Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) – funded by multiple agencies and organizations

• Editor – Journal of Extreme Events • Co-Editor – Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability

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Climate Variability and Risk and the New York Metropolitan Region:

Vulnerability, Disaster Risk Reduction, Adaptation, and Resilience

William Solecki Hunter College, City University of New York Temp Shifts from 1991-2012 compared to 1901-1960

average 2

Projections show change in average temperature (2071-2099 relative to 1970-1999 (source: NCND / CICS-NC

FUTURE TEMPERATURES

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Climate Variability and Urban Systems and Residents

Main Message - U.S. urban residents and critical infrastructure systems are already experiencing climate change – and the impacts will accelerate in the coming decades 5

Climate Change

Observation and Projections

• Temperature and Precipitation Trends

• Sea Level Rise

• Other measures – snow cover, heat waves

• Extreme events

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* Observations made in Central Park.

Temperature*

• Mean annual temperature has increased at a rate of 0.3°F per decade

• Total of 3.4°F since 1900

Observed Climate Trends (1900 – 2014)

Source: NPCC, 2015

Sea Level

• Sea level rise in NYC has averaged 1.2 inches per decade

• Total of 1.1 feet, nearly twice observed global rate over a similar time period

Precipitation*

• Mean annual precipitation has increased ~0.8 inches per decade

• Total of 8 inches since 1900

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Weather and Climate Extreme Events

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Observed Climate – Extreme Events

Source: NPCC, 2015; National Climate Assessment, 2014

Between 1958 and 2010, the Northeast saw more than a 70% increase in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events

(defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events)

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Source: New York City Panel on Climate Change (2015)

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Key City-Focused Findings from the 2014 National Climate Assessment

• Climate change and its impacts threaten the well-being of urban residents in all U.S. regions. Essential infrastructure systems such as water, energy supply, and transportation will increasingly be compromised by interrelated climate change impacts.

• In urban settings, climate-related disruptions of services in one infrastructure system will almost always result in disruptions in one or more other infrastructure systems.

• See http://nca2014.globalchange.gov for more information.

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http://nca2014.globalchange.gov

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov

Key City-Focused Findings from the 2014 National Climate Assessment

• Climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity of urban residents and communities are influenced by pronounced social inequalities that reflect age, ethnicity, gender, income, health, and (dis)ability differences.

• City government agencies and organizations have started adaptation plans that focus on infrastructure systems and public health. To be successful, these adaptation efforts require cooperative private sector and governmental activities, but institutions face many barriers to implementing coordinated efforts.

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Source: NOAA 13

Hurricane Sandy, 28 October 2012

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Source: PlaNYC 2013

2013

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http://www.dutchwatersector.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/dws-sandy-aerial-jersey-coast-mantoloking-breach-525px.jpg

Impacts and Associated Vulnerabilities

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Urban Lifelines and Infrastructure System Failures

• Water Supply

• Electricity

• Transportation

• Gasoline Supply

• Pharmacy – Drug Supply

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General Observations about Impacts and Vulnerabilities

• Cascading system impacts • Uneven geography – not all on the coast, but

most impactful on coast • Highly complex systems require significant

redundancy and context specific vulnerabilities – e.g. health care system

• Role of ecosystem protection opportunities – lost and found – e.g. wetlands

• Data rich assessment – smart city context yielding critical data – challenge is how to use it

• A lot more impact and vulnerability work to be done

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Source: PlaNYC 2013

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What Does Hurricane Sandy Mean?

• New York City is prone to losses from weather-related disasters.

• Top 10 in population vulnerable to coastal flooding; Second only to Miami in assets exposed to coastal flooding

• What did it reveal about exposure and vulnerability and urban infrastructure system connections?

• What does it mean for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation?

Observed Inundation – Hurricane Sandy

Change in conceptualization of extreme events. From discrete acute events to events as part of a chronic process; Looking into future dynamics as much as the present and past; Use a systems perspective to look at interactions and opportunities for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation

Source: http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2012/11/hurricane-sandy-one-week-after-landfall/100399/

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Cascading Exposure and Vulnerability of Social-

Ecological-Technological Systems

Blackouts and water supply

Electrical Power Generation and

Distribution

Transportation

All the East River Subway Tunnels flooded – although pumped out quickly salt water-related corrosion increasingly evident.

Liquid Fuel Terminals and Gas Shortages

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Liquid Fuels Supply Chain for New York City

Social Vulnerability

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South Brooklyn and Jamaica Bay Queens, including the Rockaway peninsula. Tax lots are ranked from low (dark green), to low-medium (light-green), to medium (yellow), to medium-high (orange), to high values (red). Source: Patrick 2015

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Overall Flood Risk Index for South Brooklyn and Jamaica Bay, Queens The overall flood risk index for south Brooklyn and Jamaica Bay Queens, including the Rockaway peninsula. Tax lots are ranked from low (dark green) to high values (red), and the 500-year flood zone for the 2050s is shown in transparent blue (right). Source: Patrick 2015

Breezy Point, Queens, NYC October 2012

Disaster Risk Reduction

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Critical Questions

• What is the role of city services (fire brigades, road service, water supply service etc.) and citizens and other organizations like the US National Guard in activities undertaken in crisis situation?

• How do you organize road traffic (or traffic generally - subway etc.) in crisis situation?

• Who is in charge?; or what is the system of management in crisis situation?

• What is the system of air quality evaluation in the city? How do you evaluate the air quality (in times of crisis and otherwise)?

• What measures are used to adopt to climate changes / to mitigate? • What are legal regulations; How current legal regulations support

or not adaptation to climate changes?

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Emergency Management in NYC and the NYC Hazard Mitigation Plan 2014

(with NYS and Federal Contexts)

Emergency Management Phases

City of New York (2014) New York City Hazard Mitigation Plan 2014, p. 5. Available at http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hazard_mitigation/plan_update_2014/final_nyc_hmp.pdf

Generalized Organizational Structure for the 2014 Hazard Mitigation Plan


Hazard Mitigation Planning

New York State Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan (January 2014)

New York City Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (March 2009, revised 2014)

• 1.Identification of vulnerable areas

• 2.Identification of facilities vulnerable by virtue of proximity to vulnerable areas

• 3.Risk assessments to determine degree of risk by type of facility

• 4.Process to engage stakeholders

1. Vulnerabilities: Example of Storm Surge Inundation


Identification of Vulnerable Areas: Distribution of Poverty, NYC

City of New York (2014) New York City Hazard Mitigation Plan 2014. P. 63 Available at http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hazard_mitigation/plan_update_2014/final_nyc_hmp.pdf

2. Locating Vulnerable

Facilities


3.The Risk Assessment Process for Emergency Management


Risk-Based Approach: Combining Hazards and Consequences to Prioritize Response Resources

Source: NYS Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services (January 2014) 2014 NYS Hazard Mitigation Plan.

Albany, NY: NYS, p. 3.0-32, available at

http://www.dhses.ny.gov/oem/mitigation/documents/2014-shmp/2014-SHMP-full.pdf

4. Public Engagement: Outreach Structure, NYC 2014 HMP


Response: Evacuation Planning

City of New York (2014) New York City Hazard Mitigation Plan 2014. Available at http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hazard_mitigation/plan_update_2014/final_nyc_hmp.pdf

Examples of Typical Organizations Involved in Response

• Emergency Medical Services (EMSs)

• Emergency Medical Technicians (EMTs), e.g., with Advanced Life Support (ALS) certification

• Emergency Operations Centers or EOCs (Scanlon’s case account of Gander)

• Emergency Services Strike Teams

• Police, fire, sanitation, transportation (depending on service and facility needs)

• Volunteer Organizations

Electric Power Recovery from Hurricanes Irene and Sandy: the role of “Mutual Assistance”

U. S. Department of Energy (2013) Comparing the Impacts of Northeast Hurricanes on Energy Infrastructure. [Online], pp. 12-13, 27 citing reports from the Edison Electric Institute. Available from: http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2013/04/f0/Northeast%20Storm%20Comparison_FINAL_041513c.pdf

• Utilities relied on assistance in the form of workers from other utilities across the U.S.: • Following Hurricane Irene, 50,000 workers were used • Following Hurricane Sandy, 67,000 workers were used

• Support was also obtained in the form of equipment • Networks to tap this assistance are usually established in

advance • The U.S. DOE deployed 31 emergency responders (“ESF-12”) in

Hurricane Irene and 35 in Hurricane Sandy

New York City Plans for Coastal Protection

City of New York (April 22, 2015) One New York: The Plan for a Strong and Just City, pp. 248-249 http://www.nyc.gov/html/onenyc/downloads/pdf/publications/OneNYC.pdf

Climate Change Adaptation and Resiliency

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New York City Climate Adaptation Process

53 Source: NPCC, 2010

Stakeholder Task Force

City-wide Sustainability Office

Expert Panel

C W W

P

T

E

Mayor or City Official

Stakeholders

- City Agencies

- Regional Authorities

- Private Corporations

Integration across Sector-specific Working Groups

- Energy (E) - Transportation (T)

- Policy (P) -Water & Waste (WW)

- Communications (C)

Expert Knowledge Providers

- University scholars and private sector experts

- Social, biological, and physical scientists

- Legal and insurance experts

- Risk management professionals

High-Level Buy-In

Coordinating Role

Climate Risk Information

Adaptation Assessment Guidelines

Climate Protection Levels

Critical Infrastructure

PlaNYC 2013 – Released 11 June 2013

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NYC Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency

• Addresses how to rebuild New York City to be more resilient in the wake of Sandy but with a long‐term focus on: – 1) how to rebuild locally; and – 2) how to improve citywide infrastructure and building

resilience

• A comprehensive report in June 2013 addresses these challenges by investigating three key questions: – What happened during and after Sandy and why? – What is the likely risk to NYC as the climate changes and

the threat of future storms and severe weather increases?

– What to do in the coastal neighborhoods and citywide infrastructure

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Strengthening Coastal Defenses

Secured funding for nearly half of the City’s $3.7 billion first phase coastal protection program

Started design on vital $335 million Lower East Side coastal resiliency project

Launched $100 million shoreline improvement program

Placed over 4.2 million cubic yards of sand on city beaches

Advanced vital USACE projects in the Rockaways, Jamaica Bay, Sea Gate, and Staten Island

Created a new Science and Resilience Institute at Jamaica Bay

Comprehensive Coastal Protection Plan – Phase I

Progress

One New York: The Plan for a Strong and Just City

The plan envisions how we want our City to look in ten years and beyond

OneNYC recognizes a historical moment: in 2025, we will celebrate our 400th

anniversary and begin our fifth century.

OneNYC In April 2015, Mayor Bill de Blasio released a new long-term strategic plan to address our most pressing challenges.

We commit to the goals and initiatives designed to achieve that long-term vision

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Our Growing, Thriving City

Our Just and Equitable

City

Our Sustainable City

Our Resilient City

OneNYC: Our Four Visions This plan is organized across four strategic visions for growth, equity, sustainability, and resiliency.

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Resiliency NPCC3 is being launched in support of the City’s climate resiliency program. It’s important to first define what resiliency means to us in New York City.

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Our neighborhoods, economy, and public services will be ready to withstand and emerge stronger from the impacts of climate change and other 21st century threats

Our Resilient City

2008

2013

New York City Panel on Climate

Change is convened

A Stronger, More Resilient New

York/Climate Risk Information 2013

NPCC2 publishes 2015 projections

2015 2009

NPCC1 publishes Climate Data Projections

FEMA Preliminary FIRMs

2014

Mayor’s Office of Recovery and Resiliency established;

One City, Rebuilding Together

2015

One New York, the Plan for a Strong and Just New

York City

Launch NPPC3

September

2011

PlaNYC update

OneNYC: Our Resilient City The City’s plan builds on prior efforts in both the current and prior administrations…

http://nytelecom.vo.llnwd.net/o15/agencies/planyc2030/pdf/planyc_2011_planyc_full_report.pdf

Neighborhoods Every city neighborhood will be safer by strengthening community, social, and economic resiliency

Infrastructure Infrastructure systems across the region will adapt to enable continue services

Coastal Defense New York City’s coastal defenses will be strengthened against flooding and sea level rise

Buildings The city’s buildings will be upgraded against changing climate impacts

OneNYC: Our Resilient City …And strengthens and expands the City’s commitment to a multilayered approach to resiliency.

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Our neighborhoods, economy, and public services will be ready to withstand and emerge stronger from the impacts of climate change and other 21st century threats. New York City will… • Eliminate disaster-related long-term displacement of New

Yorkers from homes by 2050 • Reduce the Social Vulnerability Index for neighborhoods across

the city • Reduce average annual economic losses resulting from climate-

related events

Goal: Eliminate disaster-related long-

term displacement of New Yorkers from homes by 2050

Metrics:

1. Social Vulnerability Index for neighborhoods across the city

2. Average annual economic losses resulting from climate-related events

OneNYC: Our Resilient City To measure our efforts, the City has identified a long-term goal and two key metrics to monitor.

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Identify critical infrastructure in New York City that could be at-risk from the effects of climate change Facilitate knowledge sharing and to develop coordinated adaptation strategies to secure these assets

Climate Change Adaptation Task Force

Adopt uniform climate change projections for NYC

Key Activities

Create inventory of at-risk infrastructure

Develop adaptation strategies to protect at-risk infrastructure

Coordinate adaptation strategies across stakeholders

Identify issues for further study

Develop design guidelines to protect critical infrastructure

Objectives

1

2

3

4

5

6

Energy Transportation Freight Rail & Shipping Water and Waste Etc.

Stakeholders will work in working groups to assess climate risks across sectors

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CCATF Organizational Structure

Working Groups 60 Stakeholders

City Agencies State Agencies Federal Agencies Private Sector

Sea Level Rise Heat Extreme wind Extreme precipitation Public Health

Issues

Updated risk assessment Design standards

Outputs

Scientific Advisory Panels

New York City Panel on Climate Change Urban Heat Island Mitigation Working Group

Resilience and Adaptation – Conditions for Success

• Flexibility, broad cross-disciplinary involvement and buy-in • Embedding climate change into work and planning streams

rather than developing a special system • Prioritizing "no-regrets” strategies and meeting multiple

goals; multi-policy approach to adaptation • Planning for and executing effective communication with

residents • Top level engagement with a central point of coordination • Coordination with other infrastructure and service

providers within the service-shed of urban systems. • Integrate resiliency and adaptation into regular

infrastructure capital upgrades

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Resiliency and Adaptation – Opportunities

• Connecting operations and management

• Creating science-policy interface panels

• Robust indicator and monitoring systems; need metrics of resiliency and adaptation success

• More pro-active use of extreme events as learning moments

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Resiliency and Adaptation – Challenges

• Confidence in the climate science and climate scientists

• Coordination across varying urban infrastructure systems and interconnecting systems across metropolitan scales

• Connecting short term planning with long term planning – possible through flexible pathway approach

• Funding for resiliency and adaptation – possible through mitigation-adaptation link and other funding options (ensuring that adaptation and mitigation activities are synergistic and not in conflict – e.g. air conditioning increases adds more GHG emissions)

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Policy Non-Stationarity - Freeboard

“Freeboard” is the practice of elevating a building’s lowest floor above the Base Flood Elevation (BFE) by a small additional height, typically 1 to 2 feet above FEMA minimum height requirements, depending on building type (2 feet for single and two- family residences and 1 foot for most other buildings). The benefits of freeboard include an additional margin of safety to protect against more severe storms and increased future flood risks from rising sea levels. Additionally, FEMA recognizes that freeboard significantly reduces flood risk and provides substantial reductions in flood insurance premiums.

Freeboard

Final Considerations

• Tying policy directly to changing climate science

• Building flexible adaption directly into the legal and regulatory framework

• Opportunities for transformation – extreme events

• Solution space – policy, regulation, and codes; translation into the realm of engineering and equity…next steps

Intense rainfall – panhandle Florida April 2014

Extreme Rain Event – Long Island NY August 2014

william solecki, phd - warszawa 21.10… · william solecki, phd • professor of geography, hunter...

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