wind energywindpower.sandia.gov/2008bladeworkshop/pdfs/mon-01-laird.pdf · 2008 blade workshop. ......
TRANSCRIPT
Wind Energy Industry Overview
Daniel LairdWind Energy Technology Department
Sandia National LaboratoriesTelephone: (505) 844-6188E-mail: [email protected]
Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company,for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
Sandia National LaboratoriesAlbuquerque,New Mexico
Livermore, California
Tonopah Test Range, Nevada
Kauai Test Facility,Hawaii
WIPP, New Mexico
Yucca Mountain,Nevada
Pantex, Texas2008 Blade Workshop
Wind Energy Research at SNL
• Began in the mid 1970’s
• Initially focused on vertical-axis wind turbines
• Since 1993, the program has focused on industrial-sized horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWT)
2008 Blade Workshop
Installed CapacityWorld
Year: Installed MW Increase % Cumulative MW Increase %2002 7,227 32,0372003 8,344 15% 40,301 26%2004 8,154 -2% 47,912 19%2005 11,542 42% 59,399 24%2006 15,016 30% 74,306 25%2007 19,791 32% 94,005 27%
22.3% 24.0%Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
Average growth - 5 years
2008 Blade Workshop
The 10 Largest Markets in 2007
Country 2005 2006 2007 Share % Cum. Share %USA 2,431 2,454 5,244 26.5% 26%P.R. China 498 1,334 3,287 16.6% 43%Spain 1,764 1,587 3,100 15.7% 59%Germany 1,808 2,233 1,667 8.4% 67%India 1,388 1,840 1,617 8.2% 75%France 389 810 888 4.5% 80%Italy 452 417 603 3.0% 83%Portugal 502 629 434 2.2% 85%UK 447 631 427 2.2% 87%Canada 239 776 386 2.0% 89%Total 9,918 12,711 17,653Percent of World 85.9% 84.7% 89.2%Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
2008 Blade Workshop
U.S. Installed Wind Capacity(MW as of Jan 16, 2008)
Alaska2
California2439
Colorado1067
Hawaii63
Iowa1273
Kansas364
Maine42
New Hampshire1
Massachusetts5
Michigan3
Minnesota1299
Montana146
Nebraska73
New Mexico497
New York425
North Dakota
345Oregon885
Pennsylvania294
Tennessee29
Texas4356
Utah1
Vermont6.0
Wisconsin53
Wyoming288
Washington1163
South Dakota
98
Idaho75
Oklahoma689
Illinois699 WV
66
Ohio7
New Jersey8
1 MW powers ~300 homessource: awea.org
Missouri57
Rhode Island1
The 10 Largest Markets in 2007
Country 2005 2006 2007 Share % Cum. Share %USA 2,431 2,454 5,244 26.5% 26%P.R. China 498 1,334 3,287 16.6% 43%Spain 1,764 1,587 3,100 15.7% 59%Germany 1,808 2,233 1,667 8.4% 67%India 1,388 1,840 1,617 8.2% 75%France 389 810 888 4.5% 80%Italy 452 417 603 3.0% 83%Portugal 502 629 434 2.2% 85%UK 447 631 427 2.2% 87%Canada 239 776 386 2.0% 89%Total 9,918 12,711 17,653Percent of World 85.9% 84.7% 89.2%Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
2008 Blade Workshop
The 10 Largest Markets by end of 2007
Country 2005 2006 2007 Share % Cum. Share %Germany 18,445 20,652 22,277 23.7% 24%USA 9,181 11,635 16,879 18.0% 42%Spain 10,027 11,614 14,714 15.7% 57%India 4,388 6,228 7,845 8.3% 66%P.R. China 1,264 2,588 5,875 6.2% 72%Denmark 3,087 3,101 3,088 3.3% 75%Italy 1,713 2,118 2,721 2.9% 78%France 775 1,585 2,471 2.6% 81%UK 1,336 1,967 2,394 2.5% 83%Portugal 1,087 1,716 2,150 2.3% 86%Total 51,303 63,203 80,415Percent of World 86.4% 85.1% 85.5%Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
2008 Blade Workshop
Turbine Suppliers in 2007Market Share
Top-10 Suppliers in 2007% of the total market 19,791 MW
GE WIND (US) 16.6%
GAMESA (ES) 15.4% ENERCON (GE) 14.0%
SUZLON (Ind) 10.5%
SIEMENS (DK) 7.1%
Others 10.5% SINOVEL (PRC) 3.4%
NORDEX (GE) 3.4%VESTAS (DK) 22.8%
GOLDWIND (PRC) 4.2%
ACCIONA (ES) 4.4%
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
2008 Blade Workshop
Turbine Suppliers (2005 - 2007)Domestic and Export (2005-2007)
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
VESTAS
GE WIND
GAM ESA
ENERCON
SUZLON
SIEM ENS
ACCIONA
NORDEX
GOLDWIND
M ITSUBISHI
ECOTÉCNIA
SINOVEL
MW
Domestic Export
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
2008 Blade Workshop
Global Wind Power ForecastCumulative MW by end of 2007 & Forecast 2012
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Europe USA Asia Rest of World
2007 (94,005 MW) 2012 (287,940 MW)Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
2008 Blade Workshop
Global Wind Power ProjectionsCumulative MW - Forecast 2012 & Prediction 2017
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Europe North America Asia Rest of World
2012 (287,940 MW) 2017 (690,994 MW)Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
Wind Power’s Share of World Power Generation
Generation Electricity gen. Electricity from all Wind Power's shareTechnology by Wind Power gen. sources of the world's electricity
(BTM-C) (incl. Wind) IEA generation:Year: TWh TWh %1996 12.23 13,613 0.09%1997 15.39 13,949 0.11%1998 21.25 14,340 0.15%1999 23.18 14,741 0.16%2000 37.30 15,153 0.25%2001 50.27 15,577 0.32%2002 64.81 16,233 0.40%2003 82.24 16,671 0.49%2004 96.50 17,408 0.55%2005 120.72 17,982 0.67%2006 152.35 18,576 0.82%2007 194.16 19,189 1.01%2012 (forecast) 605.4 22,571 2.68%2017 (est.) 1573.8 26,549 5.93%Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008 ; World Figures: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007
Phenomenal Growth - No End in Sight!Global Wind Industry
• 25% growth rate, 1990-2007 (actual)
2008 Blade Workshop
Cumulative Global Wind Power DevelopmentActual 1990-2007 Forecast 2008-2012 Prediction 2013-2017
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1990 2007 2012 2017
MW
Prediction Forecast Existing capacitySource: BTM Consult ApS - March 2008
• 25% growth rate 2008-2012 (BTM)
• 19% growth rate 2013-2017 (BTM)