David Millar

Technical Director, Renewable Energy

AECOM

September 24, 2013

Australian Institute of Energy

Canberra Branch

Wind Energy 2013 Technology and Market Update

AECOM Overview

Presentation Title Page 2 September 25, 2013

Member of the Clean Energy Council

Geographies:

• Africa

• Americas

• Asia

• Australia New Zealand

• Europe

• Middle East

• 45,000 employees around the world

• A Fortune 500 company

• Serves clients in more than 140 countries

AECOM provides a blend of global reach, local knowledge, innovation and technical excellence in delivering solutions that create, enhance and sustain the world's built, natural, and social environments.

Program,

Cost

Consultancy

AECOM Business Lines

9/26/2013 The Future of Energy Page 3

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& Bridges

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& access

consulting

My experience

AECOM Australia Pty Ltd

January 2011 – Present

Technical Director – Renewable Energy

• Owner’s Engineer , Development Phase – Collector Wind Farm, NSW (150 MW) [Ratch Australia Corporation]

• Owner’s Engineer, Construction phase – Bald Hills Wind Farm, VIC (104 MW) [Bald Hills Wind Farm P/L]

• Owner’s/Contractor’s Engineer, Construction phase – Gullen Range Wind Farm, NSW (160 MW) [Goldwind Australia]

• Technical Consultant for Due Diligence review on two operating wind farms (140 MW) in South Australia.

• Owner’s Engineer for 20 MW Morton’s Lane Wind Farm, VIC [Goldwind Australia].

GL Garrad Hassan

2001 – January 2011

• Owner’s Engineer for a 160 MW wind farm in Thailand

• Owner’s Engineer (wind turbines and wind farm electrical) for 70 MW Hallett Hill Wind Farm (2007 – 2009) - [SKM].

• Bank’s Engineer for 110 MW Waterloo Wind Farm, South Australia (2009 – 2010) [Roaring 40’s & Banks group].

• Owner’s Engineer (wind turbines and wind farm electrical) for 94 MW Hallett Wind Farm (2004 – 2006) [SKM].

• Bank’s Engineer for 61 MW Yeong Yang Wind Farm, South Korea (2008 – 2009) [BNP Paribas].

• Bank’s Engineer for 205 MW Collgar Wind Farm, Western Australia (2008 – current) [Investec & Banks group].

• Bank’s Engineer for 160 MW Lake Bonney Stage 2 Wind Farm, South Australia (2006 – current) [Infigen & Banks group].

• Bank’s Engineer for 80 MW Lake Bonney Stage 1 Wind Farm, South Australia (2003 – 2006) [Infigen & Banks group].

• Owner’s Engineer for the 70 MW Mt. Millar Wind Farm (2005 – current). [Tarong Energy].

Presentation Overview

Global Wind Energy Market

- Wind capacity growth

- Active markets

- Market drivers

- Globalisation of the industry

Wind Turbine Technology Development

- Main components of a turbine

- Key technology developments in recent years

- Potential future developments

Global wind energy market and wind turbine technology – present and future

Global Wind Capacity Growth

Global Wind

Energy Market

Wind Turbine

Technology

• Wind energy industry began to grow significantly in the early 90s

• Annual installed capacity globally has increased 20-30% per annum consistently

• Global cumulative wind energy capacity in 2012 was recorded at almost 300 GW – making wind energy a key energy generation source

Global Active Markets

Global Wind

Energy Market

Wind Turbine

Technology

• Wind generation is active today in over 79 countries, with 24 countries having more than 1,000 MW installed (Australia ~ 2500 MW to end 2012).

• Europe, North America and Asia are the largest markets.

• Yearly installed capacity in Europe has increased consistently since 2005, whereas capacity in Asia has increased significantly between 2009 and 2012.

Global Active Markets

Global Wind

Energy Market

Wind Turbine

Technology

Global Cumulative Offshore Installed Capacity 2011-2012

Global Wind

Energy Market

Wind Turbine

Technology

Forecasted Global Trends in Installed Wind Energy

Global Wind

Energy Market

Wind Turbine

Technology

• Global installed wind energy capacity is forecasted to continue grow at approximately 20%/annum (almost doubling in size in the 5 years)

• Asia is forecast to be the largest market in the near future

Key Market Drivers Globally

Global Wind

Energy Market

Wind Turbine

Technology

• National and state renewable energy targets, clean energy initiatives, carbon pricing, feed in tariffs, production tax credits (US)

• Energy security – wind energy provides security in energy supply for countries that would otherwise rely on importing and transporting fuels

• Decreasing prices for turbines ($/MWh) and BoP means that wind energy is competitive with new conventional generation in some countries

Globalisation of the Industry

Global Wind

Energy Market

Wind Turbine

Technology

International corporations now manufacturing turbines

General Electric (US)

Siemens (Germany)

Mitsubishi (Japan)

Alstom (France)

AREVA (France)

Many Chinese turbine manufacturers in Top 10

Goldwind, Sinovel, Guodian United Power, Ming Yang

3 large Spanish companies involved:

Gamesa, Acciona, Ecotecnia

Manufacturers’ HQs in:

Denmark, Spain, Germany, US, Japan, India

Subsidiaries now in most major markets including:

Brazil, USA, UK, Canada, China, India

Global Wind

Energy Market

Wind Turbine

Technology

Wind Turbine Components

Global Wind

Energy Market

Wind Turbine

Technology

Source: http://www.ecw.org/windpower/web/cat2a.html

Source: https://www1.eere.energy.gov/wind/inside_a_wind_turbine.html

Wind Turbine Technology Trends

Global Wind

Energy Market

Wind Turbine

Technology

• Turbine size and capacity has increased significantly in last 20 years

• Typical wind turbine capacity factors and energy yield are increasing consistently

• With power electronics, turbines have improved power quality, anti-islanding protection and fault ride through – resulting in improved grid connectivity

• Increased focus on wind speed measurement and predictions

• Significant developments for On-shore and off-shore turbines

Wind Turbine Technology (Current and future)

Generators

Global Wind

Energy Market

Wind Turbine

Technology

Historically • Fixed speed generator technologies - directly connected (no power electronics) squirrel

cage induction generator. All power fluctuations transferred to the grid. • Two speed generator technologies - low speed generator (smaller unit for low wind

speeds) and a high speed generator (e.g. 4pole and 6pole generators) Current • Variable slip generator technologies - Controllable resistance provides control of slip for

larger generators, allowing absorption of fluctuations. • Doubly fed induction generators (DFIG) - power can feed directly from the generator to

the grid, or via IGBT converters, IGBT converters are rated for around 30% of the power (cheaper than full conversion)

• Variable speed / full conversion technologies - Full converted power electronics allows for speed control and improved grid connectivity (anti-islanding protection and fault ride through); however it does introduce harmonics. Full rated IGBT converters are expensive.

• Gearless generator technologies – Enercon, Goldwind, Siemens

Future • With power electronics decreasing in cost and more emphasis on

grid suitability, fully converted generators are thought to be preferred in the coming years

• Use of synchronous generators with full conversion is increasing – (lighter weight, more efficient, no reactive power required)

• Direct drive vs. geared machines – debate continues….

Wind Turbine Technology (Current and future)

Towers

Global Wind

Energy Market

Wind Turbine

Technology

Current Rolled steel tubular towers still common. Height trade off between high wind speeds and more expense. Nacelle mounted on tower with yaw drive teeth and gears. Towers brought to site on trucks Future New materials and tower shapes leading to restricted base diameters that are just as strong as stiff steel towers currently used. Pouring concrete towers on site – help minimise transport issues. Slender concrete steel tower – also helps with transportation

Wind Turbine Technology (Current and future)

Blades

Global Wind

Energy Market

Wind Turbine

Technology

Siemens 75m blade (6MW SWT-6-154, rotor diameter 154m)

Current Mostly fibre glass, epoxy composites. Bending loads taken by internal spar. Aerofoil shape varies from root to tip to maximise aerodynamic effect. Rotational speed limited by aerodynamic noise. Carbon fibre-reinforced load-bearing spars can reduce weight and increase stiffness. Future Using carbon fibres in 60 metre turbine blades is estimated to reduce total blade mass by 38% and decrease cost by 14% compared to 100% fibreglass. Aluminium and wood epoxy materials – reduce weight of blades by 40%

Wind turbines - Future

Global Wind

Energy Market

Wind Turbine

Technology

Onshore

• Significant technology advances driving down cost of energy

• Market dominated by turbines of 1.5 – 4 MW rating

• Rotor diameters up to 160 m diameter, nacelle height 120 m soon to be in serial production

Offshore

• Further growth in size of offshore turbines probable

• Manufacturers are now considering turbines in the range of 7.5 - 14 MW

• Vestas speculates that 20 years from now, giant floating 20 MW wind turbines with rotors 250 metres in diameter could be a common sight across the world’s deep ocean waters.

Thank You

Technologies Description Examples Comments

Fixed speed

Directly connected (no power

electronics) squirrel cage

induction generator

Classic Danish turbine

Vestas V82 (1.65 MW)

Mitsubishi MWT-1000 (1MW)

All power fluctuations transferred to the grid

Units need to be small (as the size increased and units

became more efficient… less turbine resistance and

therefore less slip to absorb fluctuations)

Two speed

Contains a low speed generator

(smaller unit for low wind

speeds) and a high speed

generator (e.g. 4pole and 6pole

generators)

Vestas V82 (0.9MW/1.65MW)

Siemens 82 (0.4MW/2.3MW)

Suzlon S.66 (0.25MW/1.25MW)

With a low speed generator – audible noise is reduced

Squirrel cage rotor is economical, robust and generally

considered reliable

Variable slip

Wound rotor

Controllable resistance (through

power electronics)

Vestas V80 Optislip (1.8 MW)

Suzlon S.88 Flexi-slip (2.1 MW)

Controllable resistance provides control of slip for larger

generators, allowing absorption of fluctuations.

Transient torques and stresses are reduced.

Variable

speed -Full

conversion

Power electronics (all power

goes through the converters).

Induction or synchronous

generators can be use.

Siemens SWT (2.3MW)

Siemens SWT (3.6MW)

Synchronous, permanent

magnet generators:

GE (2.5MW)

Vestas GridStreamer (2MW)

Vestas V112 (3MW)

Higher cost (full rated IGBT converters).

Induction generators are preferred to directly connected

models due to slip allowance, however if power is fully

converted – synchronous generators can be used

(generally more efficient, no reactive power control

needed).

Use of power electronics does introduce harmonics.

Full converted power electronics allows for anti-islanding

protection and fault ride through.

Gearless

wind

turbines

Large diameter synchronous,

full converted generator.

Enercon

Goldwind

Siemens

DFIG units

Doubly fed wound rotor

induction (or asynchronous)

generator – power can feed

directly from the generator to

the grid, or via IGBT converters

Vestas V80 (2MW)

Vestas V90 (3 MW)

Vestas V120 (4.5MW)

Gamesa G90 (2MW)

GE 1.5s (1.5MW)

REpower MD70 (1.5MW)

IGBT converters are rated for around 30% of the power

(cheaper than full conversion)

Widely used today

Project Operating Companies

Location Commenced Operation

Capacity (MW)

Capital Wind Farm Suzlon S88 2.1MW turbines

Hub height: 80m

Rotor diameter: 88m

Infigen Energy Bungendore, NSW 2009 140

Crookwell Wind Farm Vestas V44-600kW

Hub height:45m

Rotor diameter: 44m

Eraring Energy 10 km south of Crookwell, NSW

1998 5

Cullerin Range Wind Farm

REpower

8×MM82 2 MW 7×MM92 2 MW

Origin Energy 12 km east of Gunning, NSW

2009 30

Gunning Wind Farm Acciona AW 1500

Hub height: 76m

Acciona Energy 15 km north-east of Gunning, NSW

2011 46

Woodlawn Wind Farm Suzlon S88 2.1MW Infigen Energy Bungendore, NSW 2011 48

Total Capacity of Operating Projects 269

Operating Wind Farms in ACR