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Wind Energy UpdateWind Energy Update
Larry Flowers Larry Flowers National Wind Technology Center, NRELNational Wind Technology Center, NREL
Maine Maine -- October, 2009October, 2009
*Preliminary data
Installed Wind Capacities (‘99 – ‘09)
Four Years of Strong Growth: 2008: 8,558 MW Added; $16 billion Investment
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Annual US Capacity (left scale) Cumulative US Capacity (right scale)
2008 Wind Market Report; LBL
Geographic Spread of Wind ProjectsGeographic Spread of Wind Projectsin the United States Is Reasonably Broadin the United States Is Reasonably Broad
Texas Easily Led Other StatesTexas Easily Led Other Statesin Both Annual and Cumulative Capacityin Both Annual and Cumulative Capacity
• 13 states had >500 MW of wind capacity at the end of 2008 (7 had >1000 MW, 3 had >2500 MW)
• 2 states (IA and MN) have in-state wind generation that exceeds 10% of total in-state generation (6 other states exceed 5%)
Annual Capacity (2008, MW)
Cumulative Capacity (end of 2008, MW)
Estimated Percentage of In-State Generation
Texas 2,671 Texas 7,118 Iowa 13.3%Iowa 1,600 Iowa 2,791 Minnesota 10.4%Minnesota 456 California 2,517 South Dakota 8.8%Kansas 450 Minnesota 1,753 North Dakota 7.1%New York 407 Washington 1,447 Kansas 6.7%Wyoming 388 Colorado 1,068 Colorado 6.6%North Dakota 370 Oregon 1,067 Oregon 5.4%Wisconsin 342 Illinois 915 Texas 5.3%Washington 284 New York 832 New Mexico 4.5%West Virginia 264 Oklahoma 831 Wyoming 4.1%Illinois 216 Kansas 815 Washington 3.9%Oregon 185 North Dakota 714 Oklahoma 3.7%Oklahoma 142 Wyoming 676 Montana 3.4%Indiana 131 New Mexico 497 California 3.1%Michigan 127 Wisconsin 395 Hawaii 2.2%Montana 125 Pennsylvania 361 Idaho 1.6%Missouri 106 West Virginia 330 New York 1.4%South Dakota 89 Montana 272 Illinois 1.4%California 89 South Dakota 187 Wisconsin 1.3%Pennsylvania 67 Missouri 163 West Virginia 0.9%Rest of U.S. 52 Rest of U.S. 622 Rest of U.S. 0.2%TOTAL 8,558 TOTAL 25,369 TOTAL 1.8%Source: AWEA project database, EIA, Berkeley Lab estimates
Wind Now >20% of Some UtilitiesWind Now >20% of Some Utilities’’ SalesSales
See full report for the many assumptions used to generate the data in this table
Total Wind Capacity (end of 2008, MW)
Estimated Percentage of Retail Sales (for utilities with > 100 MW of wind)
Xcel Energy 2,906 Minnkota Power Cooperative 22.6%MidAmerican Energy 2,363 Empire District Electric Company 20.7%Southern California Edison 1,137 Otter Tail Power 14.9%Pacific Gas & Electric 981 Southern Minn. Muni. Power Authority 13.0%Luminant 913 Austin Energy 11.7%City Public Service of San Antonio 502 Xcel Energy 10.7%American Electric Power 468 MSR Public Power Agency 9.3%Alliant Energy 446 Great River Energy 9.1%Austin Energy 439 City Public Service of San Antonio 8.2%Puget Sound Energy 435 MidAmerican Energy 8.1%Exelon Energy 351 Public Service New Mexico 6.2%Great River Energy 319 Luminant 5.6%Empire District Electric Company 255 Alliant Energy 5.4%First Energy 244 Puget Sound Energy 5.3%San Diego Gas & Electric 239 Seattle City Light 5.3%Portland General Electric 225 Northwestern Energy 5.0%Public Service New Mexico 204 Minnesota Power 4.6%MSR Public Power Agency 200 Aquila 3.9%Reliant Energy 199 Portland General Electric 3.3%Minnkota Power Cooperative 193 Southern California Edison 3.1%Source: AWEA, EIA, Berkeley Lab estimates
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22%
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Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2008
Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2007
Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2006
Proj
ecte
d W
ind
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as a
Pro
porti
on o
f El
ectri
city
Con
sum
ptio
nU.S Lagging Other Countries in WindU.S Lagging Other Countries in Wind
As a Percentage of Electricity ConsumptionAs a Percentage of Electricity Consumption
Note: Figure only includes the 20 countries with the most installed wind capacity at the end of 2008
Wind Is a Major Source of New GenerationWind Is a Major Source of New GenerationCapacity Additions: Wind Contributed 42% Capacity Additions: Wind Contributed 42%
of New Additions in the US in 2008of New Additions in the US in 2008
• Wind was the 2nd-largest resource added for the 4th-straight year
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Ann
ual C
apac
ity A
dditi
ons
(GW
)
Other non-renewable
Coal
Gas (non-CCGT)
Gas (CCGT)
Other renewable
Wind0% wind
42% wind
35% wind18% wind
12% wind
2% wind
3% wind
1% wind
4% wind
Nearly 300 GW of Wind inNearly 300 GW of Wind inTransmission Interconnection QueuesTransmission Interconnection Queues
• MISO (64 GW), ERCOT (52 GW), SPP (48), and PJM (43 GW) account for >70% of total wind in queues
• Not all of this capacity will be built….
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Wind Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Solar Other
Entered Queue in 2008 Total in Queue at end of 2008
Nam
epla
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W)
Twice as much wind as next-largest resource (natural gas) in queues
Drivers for Wind PowerDrivers for Wind Power
• Declining Wind Costs• Fuel Price Uncertainty• Federal and State
Policies• Economic Development• Environment/Water• Public Support• Green Power• Energy Security• Carbon Risk
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Inst
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d Pr
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08 $
/kW
)
Individual Project Cost (283 online projects totaling 18,641 MW) Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost Polynomial Trend Line
Installed Project Costs Rose Substantially,Installed Project Costs Rose Substantially,After a Long Period of DeclineAfter a Long Period of Decline
Sample of 3,600 MW of projects proposed for construction in 2009 (not shown in graphic) are ~$205/kW higher still (averaging ~$2,120/kW)
Increase of ~$700/kW
As a Result of Foregoing Trends,Wind Prices Have Been Rising Since 2002-03…
• Wind power prices bottomed out with projects built in 2002-03• Projects built in 2008 are ~$15-20/MWh higher on average
2008 Wind Market Report; LBL
Wind Has Been Competitive withWind Has Been Competitive withWholesale Power Prices in Recent YearsWholesale Power Prices in Recent Years
• Wholesale price range reflects flat block of power across 23 pricing nodes• Wind power prices include sample of projects built from 1998-2008
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49 projects 62 projects 80 projects 98 projects 117 projects 145 projects
2,268 MW 3,069 MW 4,083 MW 5,165 MW 7,654 MW 9,873 MW
2008
$/M
Wh
Nationwide Wholesale Power Price Range (for a flat block of power)
Cumulative Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price (with 25% and 75% quartiles)
Wind project sample includes projects built from 1998-2008
Even Among MoreEven Among More--Recent Projects, WindRecent Projects, WindWas Competitive in Most Regions in 2008Was Competitive in Most Regions in 2008
Note: Within a region there are a range of wholesale power prices because multiple wholesale price hubs exist in each area (see earlier map)
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Texas Heartland Mountain Northwest Great Lakes California East New England Total US
2 projects 28 projects 10 projects 5 projects 6 projects 3 projects 4 projects 2 projects 60 projects
241 MW 2,133 MW 1,115 MW 831 MW 713 MW 233 MW 170 MW 29 MW 5,465 MW
Average 2008 Wholesale Power Price Range (by region) 2008 Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price (by region) Individual Project 2008 Wind Power Price (by region)
Wind project sample includes projects built from 2006-2008
2008
$/M
Wh
Comparative Generation Costs
Source: LBL
Result: The NearResult: The Near--Term Economics of Wind Term Economics of Wind Has Become Somewhat Less AttractiveHas Become Somewhat Less Attractive
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1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006 2007 2008624 MW 805 MW 1,648 MW 1,331 MW 757 MW 2,938 MW 1,769 MW
Capacity-Weighted Average 2008 Wind Power Price (by project vintage) Individual Project 2008 Wind Power Price (by project vintage)
2008
Pow
er P
rice
(200
8 $/
MW
h)
Note: Wind prices include the value of the PTC
2008 2009 Wholesale Price Range1,769 MW
Soaring Demand Spurs Expansion of U.S. Wind Turbine Manufacturing
But 2009 Is Expected To Be a Slow(er)But 2009 Is Expected To Be a Slow(er)Year for the US Wind SectorYear for the US Wind Sector
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2008 Wind Power Capacity Additions
COCO22 prices significantly prices significantly increase the cost of coalincrease the cost of coal
Levelized Cost of Electricity (2010) vs. CO2 Price
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Carbon Price ($/ton CO2)
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Wh
Coal PCCoal IGCCCoal IGCC w/CCSGas CCNuclearWind Class 6Wind Class 4Wind Offshore Class 6
Economic Development OpportunitiesEconomic Development Opportunities
• Land Lease Payments: 3-5% of gross revenue $3000-4000/MW/year
• Local property tax revenue: 100 MW often brings in on the order of $500K-$1 million/yr
• 80-100 jobs/ 100 MW during construction• 6-8 permanent O&M jobs per 100 MW• Local construction and service industry:
Foundations, roads-- often done locally• Investment as Equity Owners: production
tax credit, accelerated depreciation, project revenues
• Manufacturing and Assembly plants expanding in U.S.-- single most significant economic development opportunity
Maple Ridge I Wind Farm Maple Ridge I Wind Farm
• 231 MW (1.65-MW turbines)• Landowner payments: $1.65
million/year, $49.5 million over 30-year period
• 300 workers during peak construction (60% local)
• 20 O&M positions• Total annual tax payments: $8
million/year; $240 million over 30 years
• Located in Lewis County, NY• Jointly owned by Iberdrola &
Horizon Wind Energy• On-line in 2006
Mount Storm Wind Farm Phase 1Mount Storm Wind Farm Phase 1
• 164 MW (2-MW turbines)• Landowner payments:
$700,000 annually; $17.5 million over 25 years
• ~ 300 workers during peak construction
• Total annual tax payments: $584,000/year; $14,600,000 over 25 years
• Schools will receive a separate payment of $68,000/year; $1.7 million over 25 years
• Located in Grant County, WV• Jointly-owned by Dominion
Energy and Shell Wind Energy • On-line in 2008
Locust Ridge Wind Farm Phase ILocust Ridge Wind Farm Phase I
• 26 MW (2-MW turbines)• Landowner payments: $9,000 -
$12,000/year/turbine• 85 – 90 workers during peak
construction• 3 O&M positions• Total annual payments:
$18,000/year including taxes; $540,000 over 30 years
• Located in Schuylkill County, PA• Owned by Iberdrola • On-line in 2006
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On‐site & Project Development Labor
Construction
Management and support
Earth moving, cement pouringTruck drivers, crane operators
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Off‐site and supply chain jobs, services, materials
Steel mill jobs, parts, servicesPhotos: E.C.Levy, Inc, Detroit, MI
Financing, banking, accountingEquipment manufacturing and sales
Property taxes
UtilitiesBlade and tower manufacturers
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Induced jobs, services, materialsMoney spent on local area goods and services from increased
revenue: sandwich shops, child care, grocery stores, clothing, other retail, public transit, new cars, restaurants, medical services
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Landowner Revenue:Landowner Revenue:
Project Development & Project Development & Onsite Labor ImpactsOnsite Labor Impacts
Local Revenue, Local Revenue, Turbine, & Supply Turbine, & Supply Chain ImpactsChain Impacts
Induced ImpactsInduced Impacts
Local Property Taxes:Local Property Taxes:
Construction Phase:Construction Phase:
Operational Phase:Operational Phase:
Construction Phase:Construction Phase: Construction Phase:Construction Phase:
Operational Phase:Operational Phase: Operational Phase:Operational Phase:
Jobs and Economic Impacts from the JEDI Model
Construction Phase = 1-2 yearsOperational Phase = 20+ years
JEDI Model Version W1.09.03e
Total economic benefit:New local jobs during construction:
New local long-term jobs:
1,000 MW of New Wind Power in Virginia
•• 71 new jobs71 new jobs
•• $9.9 million/year$9.9 million/year
•• 500 new jobs500 new jobs
•• 51 new jobs51 new jobs
•• $3 million/year$3 million/year•• 3,118 new jobs3,118 new jobs •• 1,081 new jobs1,081 new jobs
•• 84 new jobs84 new jobs•• $39.8 million to local economies$39.8 million to local economies
•• $3.5 M/year to local economies$3.5 M/year to local economies
•• $20.2 million/year to local $20.2 million/year to local economieseconomies
•• $405.8 million to local $405.8 million to local economieseconomies
•• $125.4 million to local $125.4 million to local economieseconomies
•• $9.8 million/year to local $9.8 million/year to local economieseconomies
28
$1.24 billion4,699206
Renewable Portfolio Standards
State renewable portfolio standard
State renewable portfolio goal
www.dsireusa.org / August 2009
Solar water heating eligible *† Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables
Includes separate tier of non-renewable alternative resources
WA: 15% by 2020*
CA: 20% by 2010
☼ NV: 25% by 2025*
☼ AZ: 15% by 2025
☼ NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)10% by 2020 (co-ops)
HI: 40% by 2030
☼ Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
UT: 20% by 2025*
☼ CO: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*
MT: 15% by 2015
ND: 10% by 2015
SD: 10% by 2015
IA: 105 MW
MN: 25% by 2025(Xcel: 30% by 2020)
☼ MO: 15% by 2021
IL: 25% by 2025
WI: Varies by utility; 10% by 2015 goal
MI: 10% + 1,100 MW by 2015*
☼ OH: 25% by 2025†
ME: 30% by 2000New RE: 10% by 2017
☼ NH: 23.8% by 2025
☼ MA: 15% by 2020+ 1% annual increase(Class I Renewables)
RI: 16% by 2020
CT: 23% by 2020
☼ NY: 24% by 2013
☼ NJ: 22.5% by 2021
☼ PA: 18% by 2020†
☼ MD: 20% by 2022
☼ DE: 20% by 2019*
☼ DC: 20% by 2020
VA: 15% by 2025*
☼ NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs)10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis)
VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by 2012;
(2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017
29 states & DChave an RPS
5 states have goals
KS: 20% by 2020
☼ OR: 25% by 2025 (large utilities)*5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)
Public Benefits Funds for RenewablesPublic Benefits Funds for Renewables
State PBF supported by voluntary contributions
www.dsireusa.org / May 2009 (estimated funding)
(NOTE: Slides 2-9 explain the methodology for calculating funding estimates.)
* Fund does not have a specified expiration date
** The Oregon Energy Trust is scheduled to expire in 2025
RI: $2.2M in 2009$38M from 1997-2017*
MA: $25M in FY2009$524M from 1998-2017*
NJ: $78.3M in FY2009$647M from 2001-2012
DE: $3.4M in 2009$48M from 1999-2017*
CT: $28M in FY2009$444M from 2000-2017*
VT: $5.2M in FY2009$33M from 2004-2011
PA: $950,000 in 2009$63M from 1999-2010
IL: $3.3M in FY2009$97M from 1998-2015
NY: $15.7M in FY2009$114M from 1999-2011
WI: $7.9M in 2009$90M from 2001-2017*
MN: $19.5M in 2009$327M from 1999-2017*
MT: $750,000 in 2009$14M from 1999-2017*
OH: $3.2M in 2009$63M from 2001-2010
MI: $6.7M in FY2009$27M from 2001-2017*
ME: 2009 funding TBD$580,300 from 2002-2009
DC: $2M in FY2009$8.8M from 2004-2012
DC
OR: $13.8M in 2009 $191M from 2001-2017**
CA: $363.7M in 2009$4,566M from 1998-2016
State PBF
16 states + DChave public benefits funds
($7.3 billion by 2017)
ME has a voluntary public benefits
fund
Policy Is Now More Favorable to WindPolicy Is Now More Favorable to WindThan At Any Other Time in the Past DecadeThan At Any Other Time in the Past Decade
• ARRA 2009 established a number of federal policies to support wind• Federal PTC currently in place through 2012 (longest extension in history)• Wind projects can elect a 30% ITC or a 30% cash grant in lieu of the PTC• Subsidized financing double-dipping penalty removed for ITC / cash grant• New allocations of Clean Renewable Energy Bonds• Expansion and enhancement of Federal loan guarantee program• Increased R&D funding• Four new state RPS policies (MI, MO, OH, KS), and many revisions to
existing state RPS policies (total is now 29 states plus Washington, D.C.)• State renewable funds, tax incentives, utility planning, green power, and
growing interest in carbon regulation all also played a role in 2008• Efforts to pass an RPS and carbon regulation at the Federal level continue
• Minnesota farmer cooperative (Minwind)
• FLIP structure
• Farmer-owned small wind
• Farmer-owned commercial-scale
Local Ownership ModelsLocal Ownership Models
Environmental BenefitsEnvironmental Benefits
• No SOx or NOx • No particulates• No mercury• No CO2• No water
Key Issues for Wind Power Key Issues for Wind Power
• Financial markets • Policy Uncertainty• Supply chain/workforce• Siting and Permitting: avian,
noise, visual, federal land * Transmission: FERC rules,
tariffs, new lines, PMA’s
• Operational impacts: variability, ancillary services, forecasting, cost allocation
• Accounting for non-monetary value: green power, no fuel price risk, reduced emissions and water use
Maine Wind Resources
13,647 MW5,545 MW
“The future ain’t what it used to be.”
- Yogi Berra
- 200 400 600 800 1,0000
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Quantity Available, GW
Leve
lized
Cos
t of E
nerg
y, $
/MW
h
Onshore
Class 6
Class 4
Class 7
Class 5
Class 3
Offshore
Class 6
Class 4
Class 7
Class 5
Class 3
10% Available 10% Available TransmissionTransmission
2010 Costs w/ PTC, $1,600/MW-mile, w/o Integration costs
The black open square in the center of a state representsthe land area needed for a single wind farm to produce theprojected installed capacity in that state. The brown squarerepresents the actual land area that would be dedicatedto the wind turbines (2% of the black open square).
Wind CapacityTotal Installed (2030)
(GW)0.0 - 0.1
0.1 - 1
1 - 5
5 - 10
> 10
Includes offshore wind.
46 States Would Have Substantial Wind Development by 2030
$0
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olla
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20% WindNo New Wind
Wind O&M Costs
Transmission CostsWind Capital Costs
Fuel CostsConventional O&M CostsConventional Capital Costs
2% investmentdifference between
20% Wind and No New Wind
Incremental investment cost of 20% Wind Scenario
Economic Costs of 20% Wind Scenario
20% Wind Scenario Impact on Generation Mix in 2030
• Reduces electric utility natural gas consumption by 50%
• Reduces total natural gas consumption by 11%
• Natural gas consumer benefits: $86-214 billion*
• Reduces electric utility coal consumption by 18%
• Avoids construction of 80 GW of new coal power plants
U.S. electrical energy mix
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
No New Wind 20% Wind
Natural GasCoalNuclear
HydroWind
Source *: Hand et al., 2008
41
Landowner Revenue:
Project Development & Onsite Labor Impacts
Local Revenue, Turbine, & Supply Chain Impacts
Induced Impacts
Local Property Taxes:
Construction Phase:
Operational Phase:
Construction Phase: Construction Phase:
Operational Phase: Operational Phase:
National (U.S.) Economic Impacts
Construction Phase = 1-2 yearsOperational Phase = 20+ years
JEDI Model Version W1.09.03e
Total economic benefit:New local jobs during construction:
New local long-term jobs:
Cumulative Impacts from 2007-2030
• 1.3 M FTE jobs
• $1,877 million
• 834,072 FTE jobs
• 366,441 FTE jobs
• $783 million• 2.63 M FTE jobs • 2.75 M FTE jobs
• 1.64 M FTE jobs• $65 billion to the US economy
• $17 B to the US economy
• $207 billion to the US economy
• $526 billion to the US economy
• $353 billion to the US economy
• $192 billion to the US economy
41
$1.36 trillion6.2 M FTE3.3 M FTE
From the 20% Scenario – 300 GW new Onshore and Offshore Development
CO2 Emissions from the Electricity SectorCO2 Emissions from the Electricity Sector
02006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
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No New Wind Scenario CO2 emissions 20% Wind Scenario CO2 emissionsUSCAP path to 80% below today’s levels by 2050
CO
2E
mis
sion
s in
the
Ele
ctric
Sec
tor
(mill
ion
met
ric to
ns)
02006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
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2,000
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3,000
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No New Wind Scenario CO2 emissions 20% Wind Scenario CO2 emissionsUSCAP path to 80% below today’s levels by 2050
02006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
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2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
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4,500
No New Wind Scenario CO2 emissions 20% Wind Scenario CO2 emissionsUSCAP path to 80% below today’s levels by 2050
CO
2E
mis
sion
s in
the
Ele
ctric
Sec
tor
(mill
ion
met
ric to
ns)
Cumulative Water Savings from 20% Scenario
Reduces water consumption of 4 trillion gallons through 2030 (represents a reduction in electric sector water consumption by
17% in 2030)
Incremental direct cost to society $43 billionReductions in emissions of greenhouse gasses and other atmospheric pollutants
825 M tons (2030)$98 billion
Reductions in water consumption 8% total electric17% in 2030
Jobs created and other economic benefits
140,000 direct$450 billion total
Reductions in natural gas use and price pressure
11%$150 billion
Net Benefits: $205B + Water savings
Results: Costs & Benefits
U.S. Remains on Early Track To Meet 20%U.S. Remains on Early Track To Meet 20%of Nationof Nation’’s Electricity with Wind by 2030 s Electricity with Wind by 2030
But ramping up to ~16 GW/year and maintaining that pace for a decade is an enormous challenge, requiring proactive policy, substantial transmission expansion, mitigation of output variability, and eased siting and permitting processes
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Deployment Path in 20% Wind Report (annual)
Actual Wind Installations (annual)Deployment Path in 20% Wind Report (cumulative)
Ann
ual C
apac
ity (G
W)
annual projections (EER)
Cum
ulat
ive
Cap
acity
(GW
)
Carpe Ventem
www.windpoweringamerica.gov
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