windless winter weeks
TRANSCRIPT
WINDSTILLE WINTERWEKKEN
Kees van der Leun
24-11-2016
Windless winter weeks
Kees van der Leun | managing partner
© F
oto
lia-j
stu
ij
© ECOFYS | |
Climate disruption in full swing: North Pole warm…
24-11-2016 Kees van der Leun2
Temperature around the North Pole: 2016 (red) vs average 1958-2002 (green)
Source: Danish Meteorological Institute Via: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
© ECOFYS | |
… but our winters could get colder
24-11-2016 Kees van der Leun3
Meltwater from Greenland ice cap
disturbs the Gulf Stream
Vis
ualisation
of
pola
r vort
ex invasio
n in J
anuary
2014 ©
NASA,
Goddard
Space F
light Cente
rTem
pera
ture
Nov-O
ct
2016 L
-OTI
(°C)
Anam
oly
vs 1
951-1
980 ©
NASA G
ISTEM
P
Less Arctic ice causes heavier
outbreaks of colder
temperatures to the South
© ECOFYS | |
Paris Agreement: lots of additional measures needed
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Nederl
andse C
O2-e
mis
sie
paden g
ebaseerd
op P
ari
jsakkord
en g
efo
rmule
erd
bele
id ©
PBL P
lanbure
au v
oor
de L
eefo
mgevin
g
CO2 emissions pathways for the Netherlands based on the Paris Agreement
and formulated policies
Mt CO2 per year
Illustrative calculation
History
Formulated policies (NEV 2016)
With net negative emissions
Without net negative emissions
With net negative emissions
Source: PBL
© ECOFYS | |
Ambitious plans, both nationally and locally
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The Hague: Climate-neutral by 2040
Rijk
zonder
CO
2©
Raad v
oor
de leefo
mgevin
g e
n infr
astr
uctu
ur
2015
The H
ague ©
fre
eim
ages.c
om
-Herm
an B
rinkm
an |
Utr
echt
© f
reeim
agescom
-Pete
r H
ellebra
nd
Utrecht: Energy-neutral by 2030
Advice to Dutch government
© ECOFYS | |
For high-density areas: renewable heat distribution
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• Renewable sources of heat needed:
• Geothermal
• Sustainable biomass
• Industrial waste heat
• Challenge: lower demand low cost, low temperature systems
Vis
ualisation taken fro
m:
Warm
tela
dder.
Afw
egin
gskader
warm
tebro
nnen v
oor
warm
tenett
en
© E
cofy
s 2
014 in o
pdra
cht
van:
Eneco
Map source: Warmtebedrijf Rotterdam, Eneco
© ECOFYS | |
For lower-density areas: Heat pumps, using ground
source, ventilation air, or ambient air
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Ground-source Ambient air
Gro
und-s
ourc
e h
eat
pum
p d
iagra
m ©
Foto
lia-S
lavom
irValigurs
ky
Air
heat
pum
p ©
Foto
lia-p
hanuw
atn
andee
• High Coefficient of Performance
(COP), hardly dependent on ambient
temperature
• Requires space, and earthwork
• Low Coefficient of Performance (COP)
especially at low ambient temperature
• Sometimes even switch to resistance
heating: COP=1
• Cheaper, easy, applicable almost
everywhere
© ECOFYS | |
Recent cold spell: 2012
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De
Bilt,
2012 ©
Ecofy
sTem
pera
tur,
zate
rdag 4
febru
ari
2012,
07:3
0 u
ur
© 2
012,
KN
MI,
Aangem
aakt:
04-0
2-2
012,
06:3
8 U
TC
Netherlands: 10 days below freezing
Temperature
Saturday, 4 February 2012, 07:30 AM
© ECOFYS | |
Recent cold spell: 2012, in neighbouring countries too!
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De
Bilt,
2012 ©
Ecofy
sEuro
pe
Tem
pera
ture
Anom
aly
JAN
29 -
FEB 4
by N
OAA/N
ational W
eath
er
Serv
ice –
National Cente
rsfo
r Environm
enta
l Pre
dic
tion –
Clim
ate
Pre
dic
tion C
ente
r[P
ublic d
om
ain
], v
ia W
ikim
edia
Com
mons.
Netherlands: 10 days below freezing
© ECOFYS | |
Germany: production of solar energy, 2012
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energy-charts.de
© Fra
unhofe
r-G
esellschaft
via
Fra
unhofe
r IS
E –
Energ
y c
hart
s,
ww
w.e
nerg
y-c
hart
s.d
e
Data: Fraunhofer ISE, energy-charts.de
© ECOFYS | |
Germany: production from solar and wind, 2012
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© Fra
unhofe
r-G
esellschaft
via
Fra
unhofe
r IS
E –
Energ
y c
hart
s,
ww
w.e
nerg
y-c
hart
s.d
e
Data: Fraunhofer ISE, energy-charts.de
© ECOFYS | |
Germany: production from solar and wind, 2012
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© Fra
unhofe
r-G
esellschaft
via
Fra
unhofe
r IS
E –
Energ
y c
hart
s,
ww
w.e
nerg
y-c
hart
s.d
e
Data: Fraunhofer ISE, energy-charts.de
© ECOFYS | |
When it’s really cold in the Netherlands, there’s less wind…
24-11-2016 Kees van der Leun13
© F
oto
lia-j
stu
ij |
Cabauw
win
dspeed a
t 140m
, 2001-2
016,
win
ter
© E
cofy
s, 2016 w
ith d
ata
fro
m K
NM
I |
De B
ilt,
2012 ©
Ecofy
s
Data source: KNMI
© ECOFYS | |
…while electricity demand from heat pumps peaks
> Air-source heat pumps are applied a lot, but perform poorly at low ambient
temperature:
> Demand during cold spells can be 2 kW per home, continuously
> When installed in half of all homes:
Extra peak demand 8 GW, almost half of present Netherlands peak demand
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-10 0 10 20
Effic
iency a
ir h
eat
pum
p (
CO
P)
Outdoor temperature (oC)
100% efficient
= resistance heating
Floor heating (35oC)
Radiators (50oC)
© E
cofs
y 2
016
© ECOFYS | |
Major impact on local grids, but on national grids too!
> Heat pump dominant in requiring
additional capacity locally, due to:
– Long duration (10 days, in
2012)
– High simultaneity
– Dimensioning: in cold spell, runs
continuously
> Total effect (5 – 10 GW) would have
major impact on national electricity
grid too
> 34 years (until 2050) or even
19 years (until 2035, RLI) is not a
lot of time in terms of planning such
extensive infrastructure
24-11-2016 Kees van der Leun15
Gri
dm
ap
The N
eth
erl
ands ©
TenneT
Transmission grid TenneT, the Netherlands
© ECOFYS | |
Many solution approaches available
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Insula
tion ©
Foto
lia-J
ürg
en F
älc
hle
| A
ir h
eat
pum
© F
oto
lia-p
hanuw
atn
andee |
Gas b
oiler
© F
oto
lia-O
leksandr
Dely
k |
Red f
irepla
ce w
ith
wood p
ellets
© F
oto
lia-m
aho |
Aquifie
r –
WKO
-syte
men, Pri
ncip
e d
ouble
t in
en w
inte
rsituatie ©
Pro
vin
cie
Dre
nth
er
| “C
ar
as p
ow
er
pla
nt”
©
Gre
en V
illa
ge –
all r
ights
reserv
ed
Heat storage
Rigorous insulation
“Car as power plant”
(Green) gas as backupHigh-quality heat pump
Pellet stoves
© ECOFYS | |
National Heat Strategy for the Netherlands
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Tem
pera
tur,
zate
rdag 4
febru
ari
2012,
07:3
0 u
ur
© 2
012,
KN
MI,
Aangem
aakt:
04-0
2-2
012,
06:3
8 U
TC
> Local or individual choices can lead
to problems or expensive solutions
on larger scales
> Costs of different solutions can differ
by € billions
> Magnitude and importance require a
National Heat Strategy, providing
guidance on:
– Solution approaches
– Necessary legal and regulatory
framework
– Governance
– Communication
© ECOFYS | |
Contact
> For further information, please contact
Kees van der Leun
Managing Partner | Ecofys
Ecofys Netherlands
Kanaalweg 15-G
3526 KL-Utrecht
The Netherlands
www.ecofys.com
Twitter: @Ecofys @Sustainable2050
24-11-2016 Kees van der Leun18