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Winter 2004 The wired society: Interview with James MartinBusiness Strategy Review44
Dr. James Martin has been called “the guru of
the Information Age” and is an authority on the
social and commercial ramifications of computers
and technology. He received a Pulitzer Prize
nomination for his book The Wired Society: A
Challenge for Tomorrow based on his predictions
and progressive views about technology.
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James Martin is founder and chairman emeritus
of Headstrong, a global consultancy that helps
leading companies create real business value
from digital technologies. He has acted as an
advisor to the UK government on restructuring
telecommunications in the UK and changing the
role of the Post Office, and consulted on planning,
product and service strategies for the long term
future with AT&T, IBM, Honeywell, Texas
Instruments, and Xerox. He has been a member of
the software Scientific Advisory Board of the US
Department of Defense.
In its 25th anniversary issue, Computerworld , ranked
Dr. Martin fourth among the 25 individuals who have
most influenced the world of computer science.
After the recent opening of the James Martin
Institute for Science and Civilization in Oxford,
James Martin talked to Des Dearlove about the
current state of technology and how it is likely
to impact on business in the future.
Why did you decide to found the James Martin
Institute for Science and Civilization?
The first part of the 21st century has some extreme
dangers and opportunities. They are examined in my
forthcoming book. This entire subject needs thorough
research and accurate data collection. Because theconsequences of getting it wrong are so immense, it
is, perhaps, the most important subject we should
be studying today. Society needs a School for
Civilization, not just a School for Business.
You are famous for predicting future trends –
particularly in technology. But isn’t the work of
futurists ultimately just guesswork. After all many
people were predicting technology would create
more leisure time but we instead we appear to be
working harder than ever.
In my view, responsible studies of the future arelogical explorations based on what we already know.
Understanding the future is a matter of logic, history,
science, and the understanding of complex
organisations. Many things about the future are
uncertain, but demographics are not. Also, much
can be predicted about future technology because
of the lengthy time lag between research in the lab
and application in the field. For example, when I
wrote The Wired Society in the mid-1970s, there
were no personal computers, and the internet was
little more than an idea about how large computers
could be interlinked. Some 25 years later the book
was hailed as an astonishingly accurate forecast of
a world using the global internet.
There are other major trends that are foreseeable,
some with a fair degree of accuracy. I call these
macrotrends in the book – that is, an ongoing trend
that has substantial consequences and seems either
inevitable or very difficult to change.
Much can be predicted, at least roughly, about
future technology – for example, the globalisation of
new media, and some of the consequences of
genome mapping. Some of today’s macrotrends will
create spectacular business opportunities.
Business Strategy ReviewThe wired society: Interview with James Martin Winter 2004 45
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There have been many dramatic technological
advances in recent years. What do you think have
been the most significant ?
They would certainly include: The web, fiber optics,
real-time business-to-business communication,
micro-sensors, wireless technology, data mining,
medical imaging, genome mapping. The most
significant changes are perhaps in research and not
yet in products – nanotechnology, medicine related
to a person’s genes, genetic modification, the grid,
focused psychotropic drugs, technology for
automated evolution, intelligent robotics, fuel cells,
fourth-generation nuclear power, carbon nanotubes.
Do you see the pace of technological change ever
reaching a plateau?
The rate of change is relentlessly increasing.
Technology is like an avalanche gaining momentum
and force as it hurtles down the mountainside. Each
generation of technology provides better tools for
designing the next generation, and generations
follow each other increasingly quickly. The industrialrevolution set the avalanche going, moving slowly at
first, but now it is thundering down the mountainside
with awesome momentum. And we can be sure that
avalanche is not going to slow down now. On the
contrary, it will increase in speed and power for the
rest of this century. Only a catastrophe of
unspeakable scale could stop it. Many factors willdrive the relentless acceleration, including highly
developed computer intelligence feeding on itself,
and the intriguing potential of automating evolution.
So how is technology going to impact on business in
the near future?
Growing innovation; a growing need for
entrepreneurship; a growing need for freedom of
trade globally. There will be long-term on-going
increase in productivity, perhaps about 2.5 per cent
per year in advanced countries; a much higher rate
of growth in China and India. Plus a massive
increase in Chinese imports and exports. For the
consumer: increased choice, increased pressure,
but not necessarily increased happiness.
What are the big issues relating to technology facing
business?
Firstly, important and inevitable e-business transitions
were put on hold in many corporations in 2000 to
2003. They now need to be implemented. Secondly,
there is a steady movement of jobs, including high-
tech jobs, from affluent countries to China, India
and other countries.
Thirdly, in America and Europe: inadequate
education and inadequate resources for the highest-
quality education.
Technology isn’t always beneficial. What is the
potential downside for civilization?
Low-cost weapons of mass destruction, especially
biological weapons, producible by individuals or
groups rather than governments. The need to build
a counter-terrorist infrastructure in Western
societies, with a consequent redefinition of what we
mean by privacy.
Extraordinary divergence between the most
capable and least capable countries. Within each
country, a growing divide between the most capable
and least capable people.
Children with low attention span (ADHD), and
growing acceptance of violence. Increasing use of
more sophisticated drugs by children (beyond
Ritalin) with unknown consequences.
The serious growth of a skill/wisdom gap.
The brightest people are driven intensely intoever more demanding skills needing deeper and
narrower knowledge. Wisdom may be scarce when
we need it most.
All technology has the capability for good or evil.
The extraordinary technology of the 21st century
has the capability for great good or great evil. The
spectrum from good to evil is becoming muchlarger, and the larger this range, the greater the
need to accelerate the best technologies and
suppress the worst. It doesn’t make sense to
embrace technology just because it’s there, as we
have done in the past. We need the wisdom to
recognize that some new technologies are a
Godsend and others could wreck civilization.
Energy technologies that will stop the greenhouse
effect are vital; plutonium and smallpox should be
banished from the planet.
We have to realise that as the avalanche gains
momentum, there’s going to come a time when it
will become very difficult to control. Either we learn
how to control technology or it will destroy us, in
one way or another.
And the upside?
A change from very narrow cultural diversity to extreme
cultural diversity. Advanced intellectual power tools.
Access to an extraordinary diversity of such tools on
networks of immense bandwidth. Affluence and new
technologies will give us the opportunity to rethink
what civilization means. New and different civilizations
will develop in different parts of the world.
Winter 2004 The wired society: Interview with James MartinBusiness Strategy Review46
Either we learn how to control technology or it will destroy
us, in one way or another.
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Why is it that many technological solutions fail to
deliver on their promises? Is this likely to change?
Irrational over-enthusiasm; inadequate
implementation skills; inadequate attention to valid
calculations of return on investment; failure to have
high-quality understanding between business
leaders and leaders of technical innovation;
inadequate understanding of the broad-spectrum
consequences; these are just some of the reasons.
Is it likely to change? Probably not, but the most
savvy executives get it right.
What will it be like to be a CEO in the future?
Being a top CEO will be an increasingly demanding
job, with an increasing ability to increase shareholder
value. Almost every industry needs radically
reinventing. The increasing complexity and globalism
will require increasing teamwork to integrate the
requisite forms of professionalism. Much greater
attention will be needed to social and global problems.
New forms of CEO-like leadership will be desperately
needed in dealing the world’s grand-scale problems.
Are you optimistic about the future?
Given our advancing knowledge, if we fail to create a
great civilization it will be because of avoidable
problems caused by greed, lack of education,
massive vested interests and bad governance. It may
be because companies drive excessive consumerism
and maximize profits by focusing on the lowest
common denominator. It may be because false
mythologies prevail instead of science. It may be that
science misleads us by focusing only on things it can
measure. It may be because the West is stuck in its
past. A wealthy society could be like Huxley ’s Brave
New World; it could be a society of drug-damaged
shop-till-you-drop imbeciles addled with garbage
television, or it could be a society educated to enjoy
the finest pleasures of civilization.
The task of the 21st century is to achieve
survivability – to eliminate the factors that could
destroy humanity. Many actions are needed; many
leverage factors are available to us. The corrections
need to be made sooner rather than later. The
longer we delay, the greater the risk.
Business Strategy ReviewThe wired society: Interview with James Martin Winter 2004 47
James Martin: hardwired
London Business School
Regent’s Park
London NW1 4SA
United Kingdom
Tel +44 (0)20 7262 5050
Fax +44 (0)20 7724 7875
www.london.edu
A Graduate School of the University of London