winter range studies of the western arctic caribou herd...2011/10/07 · winter range studies of...
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Winter Range Studies of the Western Arctic
Caribou Herd
Kyle Joly
National Park Service
Wildlife Biologist, Gates of the Arctic National Park & Preserve
Caribou Monitoring Lead, Arctic Network Inventory & Monitoring Program
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Funding
NPS – Gates, ARCN
BLM – Central Yukon
FWS – Selawik NWR
Acknowledgements Paul Duffy and Scott Rupp
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Photo: R. Jandt
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Background
• Historic Debates • Fire destroys lichens
• Caribou can just find new range
• Centered on boreal forests
• Preliminary Alaska Work • Nelchina Caribou Herd
• Western Arctic Herd
• Current Efforts
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WAH
Background
Information
• Wide Ranging
• ~ 40 Villages
• 15,000 Harvested Annually
• ~ 97 % Subsistence Use
• 348,000 (in 2009)
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0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
WAH Herd Size
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Summary • Wildfires are relatively common in tundra
• Quick re-growth allows greater reburning
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Summary • Wildfires are relatively common in tundra
• Quick re-growth allows greater reburning
• Extensive winter use of tundra by WAH
• Caribou avoid burned tundra and taiga
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Summary • Wildfires are relatively common in tundra
• Quick re-growth allows greater reburning
• Extensive winter use of tundra by WAH
• Caribou avoid burned tundra and taiga
• Few differences b/t burned and burned plots
• Lichens > 4x at unburned locations
• Lichen recovery, caribou avoidance times similar
• Caribou seek out lichen and impact them
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
All models are wrong,
but some are useful. -George Box
Reality is just a single replicate. - Tony Starfield
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
Goals
Quantify effects of climate change scenarios on:
• Fire regime of northwest Alaska
• Extent of caribou winter range
• Extent of quality moose habitat
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
ALFRESCO (ALaska FRame-based EcoSytem Code)
• State-transition type vegetation succession model
• Deciduous a successional state of spruce
• Tundra stays tundra after disturbance (fire)
• Focuses on system interactions and feedbacks
• 1 km2 pixels, 1 year time steps
• Pixels randomly “ignited”
• Fire “spread” a function of climate and vegetation state
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
Individual
Pixel
Flammability
Probability
of
Burning
Vegetation Type
Stand Age Climate
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time Since Fire (Years)
Fla
mm
ab
ilit
y
Boreal
Tundra
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
SNAP
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Empirical
Simulated
Are
a B
urn
ed (
km
2)
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Empirical
Rep_44
• A
rea
Burn
ed (
km
2)
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Cum
ula
tive
Are
a B
urn
ed (
km
2)
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Max. Fire Size (km2)
Fre
quen
cy
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
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200 250 300 350 400 450
Tundra Area Burned (km2)
Fre
quen
cy
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Historic
CGCM31
ECHAM5
Year
Are
a of
Tundra
Burn
ed (
km
2)
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
2010 Fire Season
• 37 fires in Noatak Preserve (most ever)
• 3 Re-burns just in Noatak
• # 3 all-time fire year in northwest area Parks
• Barrow Aug temps 2 C (4 F) above average
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
260000
280000
300000
320000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Historic
CGCM31
ECHAM5
Year
Are
a (k
m2)
Caribou Winter Range
> 50 yrs old
ENTIRE Study Area
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
30000
40000
50000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Historic
CGCM31
ECHAM5
Year
Are
a (k
m2)
Caribou Winter Range
> 50 yrs old
CORE
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
Potential Impacts
Of Less Winter Range
• Range shifts
• Increased competition
• Increased dispersal
• Reduced nutritional condition
• Reduced reproductive output
• Smaller group and herd sizes
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
1000
3000
5000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Historic
CGCM31
ECHAM5
Year
Are
a (k
m2)
Moose Habitat
10-30 yrs old
CORE
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
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Simulating the effects of climate change on winter range
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Part 3: Habitat selection in relation to lichens, wildfires, grazing and landscape
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Summary • Wildfires are relatively common in tundra
• Quick re-growth allows greater reburning
• Extensive winter use of tundra by WAH
• Caribou avoid burned tundra and taiga
• Few differences b/t burned and burned plots
• Lichens > 4x at unburned locations
• Lichen recovery, caribou avoidance times similar
• Caribou seek out lichen and impact them
• Simulations forecast more fires
• Less quality caribou winter range
• Conservative forecasts
• Climate-induced impacts increase moose habitat
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Summary • Wildfires are relatively common in tundra
• Quick re-growth allows greater reburning
• Extensive winter use of tundra by WAH
• Caribou avoid burned tundra and taiga
• Few differences b/t burned and burned plots
• Lichens > 4x at unburned locations
• Lichen recovery, caribou avoidance times similar
• Caribou seek out lichen and impact them
• Simulations forecast more fires
• Less quality caribou winter range
• Conservative forecasts
• Climate-induced impacts increase moose habitat
• Forage, fire and predation part of winter range story
• Winter range is just one piece of the puzzle
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Preliminary Fire Management Plan
Prior to Fire Plan
• TEK and AFS input required
• Consider more than caribou
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Preliminary Fire Management Plan
• Maintain 296-year fire cycle
• 3-Year Moving Average of Area Burned
• Stand Age ~ Lichen abundance
• Protect large areas > 30 years old
• Resource Advisor Galena Zone Fires