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Page 1: Wishbone Gold Align Update Nov 2018 - RNS Submit · Wishbone Gold listed on AIM in 2012 as a gold exploration play. 2016 saw the business refocused on gold trading following the acquisition
Page 2: Wishbone Gold Align Update Nov 2018 - RNS Submit · Wishbone Gold listed on AIM in 2012 as a gold exploration play. 2016 saw the business refocused on gold trading following the acquisition

WishboneGold

19thNovember2018

Innovativegoldplayprovidingartisanalminerswithprocessingequipmenttogainhighlyprofitablegoldoff-takeagreements

CONVICTIONBUY–PriceTarget0.589p

KeydataEPIC WSBNShareprice 0.095p52weekhigh/low

0.65p/0.08p

Listing AIMSharesinissue 2,104.23mMarketCap £2.0mSector Mining12monthsharepricechart

AnalystdetailsDrMichaelGreenmichael.green@alignresearch.co.ukIMPORTANT:WishboneGoldisaresearchclientofAlignResearch.AlignResearchandadirectorofAlignholdaninterestinthesharesofWSBN.Forfulldisclaimerinformationpleaserefertothelastpageofthisdocument.

WishboneGoldlistedonAIMin2012asagoldexplorationplay.2016sawthebusinessrefocusedongoldtradingfollowingtheacquisitionofBlackSandFZE,basedinDubai.Thisisalocationwhichhasquicklyemergedasa leading global hub for the precious metals trade. The strategy is toreverseintegratedownintothesupplychaintogainaguaranteedsupplyofgoldunderlongtermcontractsathighlyattractivemargins.

IssuesbehindthesharepricecollapseseemtohavebeensolvedThe past 12 months has seen the share price wilt due to the combinedeffect of delays at the maiden reverse integration project in Hondurascombinedwith theramificationsofa fundingarrangement.With the finalcompletion of the Honduran plant expected by the year-end and theRiverFort finance deal now unwound, it looks as though the clouds havelifted.

RapidgrowthingoldtradingusingtheMarcRich/GlencoremodelWishboneisfinancingequipmenttodramatically improvegoldproductionforartisanalminersincountrieslikeHondurasandNigeria.Inthisway,thecompany can negotiate long term gold off-take contracts with attractivemarginsasMarcRich+CoAGpioneered,whichwasthebasisofGlencore.

Firstmillinproductionshortlywithmoreonthecardsin2019Artisanal miners provide 20% of world gold production. High leveldiscussionswith governments in Africa look as though theywill pave theway now for a more rapid roll-out of company’s compelling strategywherebyWishboneeffectivelybecomesahighmargingoldproducer.

Aconservativemultipleof2020profitssuggestsover500%upsideOurinitialtargetis0.589p,butdiscountingforecastgoldtradingcashflowssuggestsahigherpriceof1.19p.WereconfirmourConvictionbuystance.

Thisinvestmentmaynotbesuitableforyourpersonalcircumstances.Ifyouareinanydoubtastoitssuitabilityyoushouldseekprofessionaladvice.Thisnotedoesnotconstituteadviceandyourcapitalisatrisk.Thisisamarketingcommunicationandcannotbeconsideredindependentresearch.

Table:Financialoverview.Source:Companyaccounts&AlignResearchYeartoendDec 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020ERevenue(US$m) 8.24 8.00 34.10 78.24PTP(US$m) (0.91) (1.04) 0.39 2.43EPS(cents) (0.070) (0.072) 0.017 0.095

Page 3: Wishbone Gold Align Update Nov 2018 - RNS Submit · Wishbone Gold listed on AIM in 2012 as a gold exploration play. 2016 saw the business refocused on gold trading following the acquisition

Update

Wishbone provides exposure to the gold market in being a trader in gold and preciousmetalsandbeingaproxyproducerthroughthesupplyofexpertiseandequipment.Movingforward,thecompanylookstobesetfirmlyonapathleadingtoincreasingcashflowsandprofitability.Earlyprogresshasnotbeenasrapidassomeinvestorshoped,butithastoberealised that this time has been well spent by the team laying the proper foundationsnecessaryonwhich tobuildapotentially fast-growingbusinessof reverse integration intotheworld’sgoldsupplychain.

Thepasttwelvemonthshasseenthesharepriceerodedbylackofprogressonthemaidenreverse integration deal (Honduras) plus mounting concerns surrounding the trueramificationsofthefundingprovidedbyRiverFortCapital.TherehasbeenconfirmationontheHondurasprojectgoingintoproductionbeforetheyear-endandtherecentlyannouncedfundraisingandsharesalewhichservedtoterminatetheearlierInvestmentAgreementthathadprovidedsomuchangst.Thismeansthatboththese issueshavebeenfullyresolved.We believe that this creates an attractive opportunity for investors to buy into theWishbonestoryatafractionofthehistoricshareprice.Webelievethatthetremendousupsidepotentialwehighlightedoninitiationremainsintact.

GoldandPreciousMetalsTrading

BlackSandFZEisa100%-ownedpreciousmetalstradingbusinessbasedinDubaiwhichwasacquiredbyWishboneinearly2016.ThiscompanyislicensedasapreciousmetalsandgemtraderintheUnitedArabEmirates(UAE),andprovidesasecuresupplychainfromtheminetotradebuyers.

Over recent years,margins in gold trading have become squeezedwith one reason beingIndia changing its import rules, which provides a premium for gold doré shipped to andprocessedincertaineconomiczonesinthatcountry.SuchamovehasattractedmoregoldproductiontocometoIndiabutservedtoreduceoverallmarginsongoldtrading.Inordertoguarantee supplies of gold and also gain a higher margin, Wishbone is now seeking tobecomeinvolvedhigherupthesupplychain.

Reverseintegrationintothesupplychain

Thestrategyofreverseintegrationintothesupplychainwaspioneeredbytheinternationalcommodities trader Marc Rich and his company Marc Rich + Co. AG, which would laterbecomeGlencore.MarcRichshowedthatoilandotherrawmaterialscouldbetradedwithlesscapitalandfewerassetsthanthebigproducersbelieved,ifbackedbybankfinance.Thishighly leveragedbusinessmodelbecamethetemplate formoderntraders likeTrafigura,VitolandofcourseGlencore.

Over recent years, Wishbone has been successfully targeting artisanal and small-scaleminingtoprovideaguaranteedsupplyofgold,withdecentmargins.This isplannedtobeachievedbygentleintegration,supplyingequipmentandexpertisetothelocalminers.Thecompany is not seeking to buy these mines but is locking them into long-term supplycontracts in exchange for the equipment and expertise.Wishbonemight portray this asgold trading but in actual fact the company is effectively becoming a highmargin goldproducer.

Page 4: Wishbone Gold Align Update Nov 2018 - RNS Submit · Wishbone Gold listed on AIM in 2012 as a gold exploration play. 2016 saw the business refocused on gold trading following the acquisition

ArtisanalandSmall-ScaleMining

Wishbone is targeting artisanal and small-scalemining to provide a guaranteed supply ofgold,withdecentmargins.Thissub-sectorofthegoldminingindustryattractslittleinterest,buttheWorldBankreckonsthatartisanalandsmall-scaleminingaccountsforsome20%ofworldgoldproduction. Ithasbeenestimatedthatworldwidethereare15millionartisanalminers,comparedto2millionpeopleemployedinlargescalemining.So,smallscaleminingemploysaround88%oftheglobalminingworkforce.

Artisanalminersusehandtoolsinsimplemines,eitherchasinggoldveinsinhardrockminesorminingalluvialmaterial.Theseminerslackfinanceandproperequipment,andtheminescanbeveryunsafewithlowlevelsofoutput.Whileproductioncostsforlarge-scaleminingmaybeintheregionofUS$600–1,000perounceofgold,artisanalminers’costscanbeoftheorderofafewhundreddollarsperounce.

TheMinamataConvention,aUNenvironmentschemewassignedin2013bymorethan100countriestostoptheuseofmercuryinartisanalandsmall-scalegoldmining.AlthoughmanycountriesinAfricaandSouth/CentralAmericasignedandhavebannedtheuseofmercury,itstillcontinuestobeusedastherearefewotheroptionsfortheartisans.

The work of artisanal miners is thus creating a ticking time bomb. The environmentaldamagecreatedbytheseminesisenormousasgoldintheseareasiscommonlyrecoveredusingmercury. The gold bearing ore is combined withmercury to create a gold-mercuryamalgam.Themercuryisburntoff,leavingthegold,butinthisprocess,mercuryisreleasedintotheair,soilandwater.

Mercury is highly toxic and being an elementmeans that it does not break down in theenvironment.Thispoisoncanseepintothewatertableandcancauseterribledeformitiestowildlifeandpeople.Graphicnewsstoriesfromaroundtheworldhavedemonstratedtheappallingtragedycausedwhenmercurygetsintothewatersupplyandthefoodchain.So,inproviding modern mineral processing equipment, Wishbone will be helping reduce thedamage to theenvironmentaswell improving the lotofmanypeople inpoorer countriesaroundtheworld–somethingweapplaud.

Supplycontractsagreed

Wishbone hasmade tremendous progress in Honduras aswell asworking on negotiatingsimilarsupplycontractsinNigeria,Tanzania,Uganda,MaliandThailand.Honduraslookslikeagoodplace tostartas thecountry’sartisanalminersareresponsible for thebulkofgoldproduction.

ThekeyproblemsfacingHondurasinclude:lowgoldproductionandtaxesnotbeingpaidbyartisanalgoldminers. Inaddition,therearepoor levelsofexploitation,asa lotofthegoldfails tobe recovered, alongwithenvironmental problems.Wishbone’s strategywill allowtheseproblemstoberesolved,withallpartiesbenefitting,includingtheenvironment.

InMarch 2017,Wishbone signed a joint venture agreement with a US based equipmentmanufacturertoworkonthedevelopmentandexploitationofexistinggoldminingsites inHonduras.This is a10-yeardealwhereby the companywillbeprovidingequipmentandexpertisetoexistingsmallminesinHonduras,inordertohelpincreasegoldproduction.

Page 5: Wishbone Gold Align Update Nov 2018 - RNS Submit · Wishbone Gold listed on AIM in 2012 as a gold exploration play. 2016 saw the business refocused on gold trading following the acquisition

ThedeallefttheJVpartnerssupplyingandinstallingtheminingequipmentandtakingcareof the necessary permitting. The range of mining equipment to be supplied to artisanalminers includes: concentrators, conveyors, crusherandgrinders, generators, shaker tablesand crushers. This equipment is simple to install and operate but acts to transform theprocessingcapabilityatthemines.

Finalcompletionofthemaidenplantbytheyear-end

TheHondurasreverseintegrationdealprovidesagoodblueprintofthestyleoffuturedealsand the benefits that negotiating such contracts will bring to the company. Wishbone isseeking tohelp theseartisanal/small-scaleminerswhich currentlymayonlybeprocessingsome0.5tperdayofgoldorefromateamoftenminersusinghammers,withgoldrecoveryratesaslowas50%.Withtheequipmentthatthecompanysupplies,5tperhouroforecanbeprocessedwith80-90%recoveryaswellasthebenefitofnotneedingtousemercurytocapturethegold.

Additional equipment is now being installed on site in Honduras for sixmonths by its JVpartnertobringtheplantuptofullspecification.Thiswillprovideprocessingfacilitiesinanarea where there is high grade gold of 15-20g/t close to the surface.Moving ahead, theminers can concentrate on mining and leave the processing to Wishbone, which couldgenerate intheorderofacoupleofkilosofgoldaday.There isplentyofdemandfortheprocessingfacilityinHonduras,asitistheonlyoneintheregion.

Production costs are deemed to be probably less than US$400 per ounce at 5t/hour. So,afterpayingadditionalcostssuchasfeestothe landowner,withgoldatUS$1,200/oz it isnotinconceivablethatthecompanyanditsjointventurepartnercouldbesharing20-30%marginsofUS$240–360/oz.Theendresultisthatthecompanycouldconceivablyreceivesomething likeUS$250,000permonth,whichwouldbe transformational for lowly cappedWishbone.Butthisjustmarksthebeginningofamuchlargerstory.

Inall,US$250,000worthofequipmenthasbeeninstalledatthesiteinHonduras,witha10-year deal in place. The equipment was funded by and belongs toWishbone. The set upconsistofa5t/hrballmill,a10t/hrjawcrusherconcentratoranda10t/hrconcentrator.So,there is the scope to double the capacity of the plant to 10t/hr simply by adding anadditionalballmill.Thetermsofthedeal includeWishbonereceiving80%ofprofitsuntilthecapexispaidoff.

Page 6: Wishbone Gold Align Update Nov 2018 - RNS Submit · Wishbone Gold listed on AIM in 2012 as a gold exploration play. 2016 saw the business refocused on gold trading following the acquisition

Strategyforgrowth

The board of Wishbone is seeking to create rapid and sustainable growth via a strategywhichhasbeendesignedtoensurethatthecompanywillbeabeneficiaryfromarisinggoldprice.Inreality,movingahead,thecompanyshowsallthesignsofbecomingafastgrowinghigh-margingoldproducer.Low-riskpreciousmetalstradingandcontrollingthecompany’ssupply chain inphysical goldhavebeendesigned to create growingmarginsas thegoldpricerises.Atthesametime,therearetheEPMs(explorationlicences)inQueenslandwhichcoverareaswhicharehighlyprospectiveforanumberofmetalsandwhichhavethescopetogenerateinterestfromajointventurepartnerorforWishbonetoexplorethemselves.

There have been delays in Honduras due to the required permission not having beengranted.However,managementbelieves that thenecessarypermitwillbe inplaceby theyear-end.This,togetherwiththeinstallationofsomefurtherancillaryequipment,willallowtheprocessingplanttobeginoperationwithgoldproductionexpectedtoberampedupinH12019toachievenameplatecapacity.OncefundsstartbeingreceivedbyWishbone,thevalidityofthecompany’sreverseintegrationstrategywillbeconfirmed.

Thisoperationwillprovideagoodshopwindowforthecompany’ssolutiontoimprovingthelotofartisanal/small-scaleminersinmanycountriesaroundtheworld. Inaddition, itwill provide clear evidence of the powerful and robust economics of such schemeswhichoughttoservetounlockfinancingonattractivetermstorolloutWishbonestrategyinbothSouthAmericaandAfricaoverthecomingyears.

It looks likely that theroll-outof thereverse integrationstrategywillbe focusedmainly inAfrica.AlthoughWishbonehasyettoannounceanyMOUsoragreementsinthiscontinent,thereseemstobeplentyofanecdotalevidencetosuggestthatalotisgoingonbehindthescenestopavethewayforsucharoll-out.Thecompany’sSecurityConsultantCaptainSimonMann(aformerBritishArmyofficerwithprovenconnectionsatthehighest level inAfrica)hastakentheteamtodiscusstheartisanalminingpositioninNigeria,whichwasmentionedinthelastannualreport.Thereisvideofootageofthismeetingonthecompany’swebsite.

Consultant Oliver Poole has been working on helping to plan for the roll-out of theWishbone model in Uganda and so we can guess that similar sorts of discussions havehappened in other African countries. There are lot of good opportunities in Nigeria,Tanzania,UgandaandZimbabwe.ThescaleofthegoldpotentialincountriessuchasNigeriaandTanzania,wouldprobablyleadtheteamtonegotiatefarlargerschemesinthesehigh-leveldiscussions.

TheplanforcountrieslikeNigeriaandTanzaniaseemstobethesettingupofagoldrefinerywhichissuppliedbyindividualprocessingplants.ThesewouldrequireaninvestmentintheorderofUS$5–10millionfortherefineryplusadditionalprocessingplantsatUS$250,000–350,000each, processingplantswill alsohavebuyingoffices to captureother goldminedlocally.AperiodofexclusivitywouldneedtobenegotiatedwiththegovernmenttoensurethatWishbonecouldrecaptureitsinvestmentandmakethenecessaryreturnwhichwouldbeattractivetothepotentialfinancialbackersthatarebeinglinedupforsuchdeals.

Page 7: Wishbone Gold Align Update Nov 2018 - RNS Submit · Wishbone Gold listed on AIM in 2012 as a gold exploration play. 2016 saw the business refocused on gold trading following the acquisition

Theseschemesarehighlyattractivetothecountry’sgovernments.Nigeriaforexamplehasahealthy small-scale gold mining industry, however most of this production slips over theborder and so the country gains little benefit. Governmental support for Wishbone’sstrategy is good as the company’s planswould very neatly bring artisanalminers into thebanking system, reduce illegal exports of gold, reduce environmental damage and allowthesenationstocollectmuchneededtax.

UgandaandZimbabwehavethecapacityforaseriesofstandaloneprocessingplantsusingthe Honduras model. Wishbone expects that its ongoing developments in early stageprojects shouldbegingaining somereal traction in2019.With theRiverFort fundingdealended, financing for these early processing plants is likely to be obtained on far moreattractive terms from new finance partners that the team has beenwarming up. Therewould seem to be the opportunity to fund such plants using debt finance at the assetlevel.Thisdebtwouldpayfortheequipment,whichrepresentsthebulkoftheexpenditure,coveredbythesecurityontheassetandinsurance.

There is a lot going on beneath the surface at Wishbone, there have been senior levelmeetingswithgovernmentsofanumberofAfricancountriesoverthepast24months.Non-disclosureagreementsmeanthatmuchofwhathasbeenachievedhasprobablynotasyetbeenallowedtobebroadcast,butitdoessuggestthatnowthestageissetforwhatcouldbe substantial progress on a number of different projects. In our view it seems that thelatestdealscouldbefarmoreattractiveinscale.

The board of Wishbone is seeking to create rapid and sustainable growth via a strategywhichhasbeendesignedtoensurethatthecompanywillbeabeneficiaryfromarisinggoldprice. Low-risk precious metals trading and controlling the company’s supply chain inphysicalgoldhavebeendesignedtocreategrowingmarginsasthegoldpricerises.

Page 8: Wishbone Gold Align Update Nov 2018 - RNS Submit · Wishbone Gold listed on AIM in 2012 as a gold exploration play. 2016 saw the business refocused on gold trading following the acquisition

Forecasts

Weupdate coverageofWishboneGoldwith forecasts for full year2018, 2019&2020. In2018 the company has been working hard to establish the reverse integration of thepreciousmetals trading business. There has been a hold-up in Honduras although all theequipmentisnowinplaceandsorevenueisseentocomeonlyfromBlackSand’straditionalgold trading activities. For 2018,we forecast revenuesofUS$8.0million, a pre-tax loss ofUS$1.04millionwithalosspershareof0.072cents.

In2019,weexpect tobegin to see theprocessof reverse integrationup the supply chainbegin in Honduras and which represents the company’smaiden such deal. Following thereceiptofthenecessarylicences,thesupplyofgolddorétothecompanycanbegin.Inthisperiod,weexpectthefullbenefitsofthefirstsupplycontractplusfurthersimilarcontractsenteredintothatwillbegintoprovideadditionaloff-takeagreements.ThenumberofsharesinissueisassumedtoincreasewiththeOctober2018warrantsbeingexercisedonthebackof a rising share price. Minorities relate to the joint-venture interests of SION in theHonduran off-take agreements. For 2019, we forecast that revenue will rise to US$34.1millionandestimateapre-taxprofitofUS$0.39million,whichequatestoearningspershareof 0.017 cents. This grows rapidly with the roll out to allow us to forecast PTP of $2.43millionin2020andaderivedEPSof0.097c(equivalentto0.076p)puttingthecompanyonaPEratioofjustover1timesbasedontheseforecasts.

US$'000s.YearendDec 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E

Sales 8,241 8,000 34,100 78,240

Costofsales (8,157) (7,927) (30,970) (69,050)

Grossprofit 84 73 3,130 9,190

Administrationexpenses (885) (1,000) (1,000) (1,100)ProfitsharetoBlackSandpreferenceshareholders - - (190) (1,073)

Operatingprofit/(loss) (801) (927) 1,940 7,017

Impairmentofinvestments (1) - - -

Foreignexchangegains (32) (15) - -

Financecosts (79) (100) (50) (70)

Minorities - - (1,500) (4,514)

Profit/(loss)beforetaxation (913) (1,042) 390 2,433

Taxation - - - -

Profit/(loss)forthefinancialyear (913) (1,042) 390 2,433

Profit/(loss)pershare:

Basicanddiluted(cents) (0.070) (0.072) 0.017 0.095

Weightedaveragenumberofshares 1,305,256,635 1,445,235,442 2,286,910,732 2,558,720,184Totalsharesplusoptions,warrantsanddeferredsharestobepaidtothevendorsofPMIandBlackSands. 1,322,268,221 2,647,913,609 2,688,513,609 2,688,513,609

Table:WishboneGoldsummaryforecasts.SourceCompanyaccountsandAlignResearch

Page 9: Wishbone Gold Align Update Nov 2018 - RNS Submit · Wishbone Gold listed on AIM in 2012 as a gold exploration play. 2016 saw the business refocused on gold trading following the acquisition

Valuation

We believe that the ultimate size of the prize fully justifies the meticulous planning andnegotiationsthatarecontinuingacrossofnumberofwell-knowngoldproducingcountries.Discussionsatgovernment-level,alongwiththosewithgroupingsofartisanalminersandtheprocessof gaining the right regulatorypermissions,have successfully led toan impressivepipelineofthesereverseintegrationdealsspreadacrossanumberofcountriesinAfricaandSouth America. These are long-term deals with ten-year contract terms which serve toprovideahighlyvisibleearningsstreamthatstretchesmanyyears intothefuture.Justthesortofqualityearningsthatinvestorsarepreparedtopayapremiumratingfor.

Wehavedetermineda sum-of-the-partsvaluation forWishboneGoldwhich isbasedonafinancialmodelofthecompanyand itsgrowingpreciousmetaltrading/reverse integrationstrategy business. Below are set out the various assumptions which are based upondiscussionswiththemanagementteamwhichhavebeentemperedbyourownopinion.

Toremainconservative,wehaveusedaflatgoldpriceof$1,200perounceinouranalysis.Theaverageleveloftradinginkilogramsofgoldperweekhasbeenputat7kgperweekin2019,risingrapidlyto11kg/weekand17kg/weekin2021and2022respectively.

The first gold from themaiden offtake agreement is expected to be received early inQ12019.Fromthenonwards,itisassumedthattwonewgoldreverseintegrationprojectswillbeestablishedeachandeveryyear.TheHondurasmodelhasbeenusedastheblueprintandsowehaveassumedall thesenewprojectshavecapacity toproduce5-10kg/week,whichequatestoacirca8,000-16,000ouncesofgoldperannumoperation.Inthisanalysis,ithasbeen assumed that $350,000 of fundingwill be required for each plantwith a six-monthpaybackperiod.Fullnameplatecapacityisassumedtobereachedateachprojectfollowingacommissioningperiod.Eachoff-takeagreementisassumedtohaveaten-yearlife.

Marginsforthetraditionalgoldtradingbusinesshavebeenunderpressure.Goingforward,wehaveassumedaflatconstantmarginofjustunder1%,whichreflectsthecurrentmargin.Fortheofftakeagreements, themargincouldconceivablybeashighas20 -30%,but toremainconservativewehaveassumedanaverageofjust15%.

Wishbone is pursuing its strategy in Honduras in a joint-venture with SION, with thecompanyandSIONsharing theprofitsequally. Theboard is seeking tousea similar joint-venturearrangementwithaminingequipmentsupplierasitexpandsintoothercountriesinSouth America and Africa once production has become stable at the first gold processingoperations. On that basis, we have assumed a 50:50 split on profits on the gold off-takeagreementsresultingfromallthereverseintegrationdeals.

Wehavealsoassumedthatoncethefirsttwoplantsareinfullproduction,thattheroll-outof these reverse integration projects could be become self-funded. There is a 30%entitlement to any annual audited profits after tax of the gold trading business for theholderofthePreferenceShares,whichhasbeenallowedforinthisanalysis.

We also use a particularly high discount rate of 14% to further apply conservativeassumptionstoourforecastsandprovideforhopedforupsidesurprises.

Page 10: Wishbone Gold Align Update Nov 2018 - RNS Submit · Wishbone Gold listed on AIM in 2012 as a gold exploration play. 2016 saw the business refocused on gold trading following the acquisition

Discountrate 12% 14%NPVUS$million 45.83 40.34NPV£million 35.53 31.27NPVsforthegoldtradinginterests.Source:AlignResearch

Ourtargetpriceisbasedonasum-of-thepartsvaluationoftheNPV(14)ofthegoldtradingbusinessallowingforcurrentcashanddebt.£million ValuationGoldtrading,explorationexpenditureandplccosts 31.27Cash 0.50Debt(US$400,000SandersonCapital) (0.31)Total 31.46

Targetprice Numberofshares SOTPvaluation£million

Persharep

Currentlyinissue 2,144,831,466 31.46 1.47Fullydilutedbasis 2,647,913,609 31.46 1.19Table:Sum-of-the-partsvaluationandtargetpriceforWishbone.Source:AlignResearch

Our valuation forWishbone is thus £31.46million, which equates to 1.47p based on thenumber of shares currently in issue (2,144,831,466). Our target price however has beencalculatedonafullydilutedbasis(2,647,913,609shares)dividingthevaluationbythesumofthetotalnumberofsharesandwarrantsexpectedtobe in issuebytheyear-end,plusthe240millionsharesthatwill result fromthepaymentofthedeferredconsiderationforPMIandBlackSands.Onafullydilutedbasisthisresultsinapersharevaluationof1.19p.As the gold trading business is being ramped up and the off-take contracts begin to bearfruit,weexpectthereshouldbegoodnewsflowoverthenexteighteenmonths.Eachandeverydealinsupplyingminingequipmentbringsalong-termoff-takeagreement,providinga guaranteedadditional supplyof gold at an attractivediscount to the current goldprice.This has the potential to create a growing, highly visible stream of earnings for thecompanystretchingwellintothefuture.

In thisway,eachof thesedealswilladdvalueas thestrategy is rolledout inanumberofcountries. We have refined our model based on the improved understanding we havegainedoverthepasttwelvemonthsconcerningthecapitalandoperatingcostsaswellasthelikely levels of production.What has become apparent over this period ismanagement’sdesire to become involved in larger scheme involving a setting up a central gold refiningfacility that is fed by a series of satellite mills. This looks like an exciting developmenthowever,atthisstage,wehavemodelledagrowingoperationthatlooksmoreachievablebyWishboneasitstandstoday.Welookforwardtorevisitingourvaluationoncemoredetailedplansbecomeputinplace.

For a further element of conservatism in our forecasts and as the company rehabilitatesitselfwithinvestorsafteradifficult2018,weupdateourcoverageofWishboneGoldwitharenewedConvictionBuystanceandpricetargetbasedon8times2020profits(0.0736ppershare–basedonaGBP/USDFXrateof1.29)givinga firstpricetargetof0.589p.TheDCFvalue of 1.19p gives investors an idea of the medium-term upside potential as thecompany’sstrategygainstraction.

Page 11: Wishbone Gold Align Update Nov 2018 - RNS Submit · Wishbone Gold listed on AIM in 2012 as a gold exploration play. 2016 saw the business refocused on gold trading following the acquisition

DISCLAIMER&RISKWARNINGIt is thepolicyofALIGNResearch toonly cover companies inwhichwehave conviction in the investment case.Our“ConvictionBuy”recommendation isderived fromourconviction ineither takingequityaspayment forour researchservices, or applying our fee to the purchase of equity in a covered companywhilst absorbing the cash cost of ourfreelanceanalystpayments.WishboneGoldPlcisaresearchclientofAlignResearch.AlignResearch&aDirectorofAlignResearchownssharesinWishbone Gold Plc. Full details of our Company & Personal Account Dealing Policy can be found on our websitehttp://www.alignresearch.co.uk/legal/ALIGNResearchhasmadeeveryreasonableefforttoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationinourresearchreportsandonourwebsite,althoughthiscannotbeguaranteed.Ourresearchreflectstheobjectiveviewsofourteamofanalysts.Aswe actively seek to take themajority of our fees by theway of equity payment in the companieswe cover,webelieve that we are aligned with both investors and the subject company. Additionally, we only write about thosecompanies that we have conviction in. However, as a consequence of this alignment, our vested interest is in anincrease in value of the subject company’s equity. As such, we can not be seen to be impartial in relation to theoutcomeofourreports.ALIGNResearchhasbothapersonal&companydealingpolicy(coveringstaff&consultants)inrelationtothedealingin the shares,bondsorother related instrumentsof companies thatwe follow&whichadhere to industry standardpersonalaccountdealing(PAD)rules.ALIGNResearchmaypublishfollowupnotesonthesesecurities/companiesbuthasnoscheduledcommitmentandmayceasetofollowthesesecurities/companieswithoutnotice.Ourreportsarenotsubjecttoanyprohibitionondealingaheadoftheirdisseminationbystaffmembers.Your capital is at risk by investing in securities and the income from themmay fluctuate. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to futureperformanceand forecasts arenot a reliable indicatorof future results.Nothing in thisreport shouldbe construedas anoffer, or the solicitationof anoffer, tobuyor sell securitiesbyus.Aswehavenoknowledgeofyour individualsituationandcircumstancesthe investment(s)coveredmaynotbesuitableforyou.Youshould notmake any investment decision without consulting a fully qualified financial advisor. Themarketability ofsomeofthecompanieswecoverislimitedandyoumayhavedifficultybuyingorsellinginvolume.Additionally,giventhesmallercapitalisationbiasofourcoverage,thecompanieswecovershouldbeconsideredashighrisk.ALIGNreportsmaynotbereproducedinwholeorinpartwithoutpriorpermissionfromALIGNResearch.Thisfinancialpromotion has been approved by Align Research Limited, which is authorised& regulated by the Financial ConductAuthority.FRNNo.768993.©2018AlignResearchLimited.