With support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

The Graduation Project

�� New annual report from New annual report from

Education Week Education Week and the and the

EPE Research CenterEPE Research Center

�� Original analysis of graduation Original analysis of graduation

rates nationwiderates nationwide

�� Roadmap for state policies on Roadmap for state policies on

graduationgraduation

�� Powerful online data mappingPowerful online data mapping

Diplomas CountDiplomas Count

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Dropouts at Great Risk in Adult World

�� General agreement on benefits of a General agreement on benefits of a high school educationhigh school education

�� Compared to graduates, high school Compared to graduates, high school DropoutsDropouts::�� Are more likely to be Are more likely to be unemployedunemployed

�� Earn Earn lower wageslower wages

�� Have higher rates of Have higher rates of public assistancepublic assistance

�� Are more likely to be Are more likely to be single parentssingle parents

�� Have Have children at a younger agechildren at a younger age

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Employment Rate

�� High School High School DropoutsDropouts are are LESS LESS likely to be likely to be EMPLOYED EMPLOYED than graduatesthan graduates

42

60

7076

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Em

plo

ym

en

t R

ate

(%

)

HS Dropout HS Graduate Some College College Graduate

Employment Rate (March 2006)

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Unemployment Rate

�� High School High School DropoutsDropouts are are MOREMORE likely to be likely to be UNEMPLOYEDUNEMPLOYED than graduatesthan graduates

8

54

2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t R

ate

(%

)

HS Dropout HS Graduate Some College College Graduate

Unemployment Rate (March 2006)

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Earning Power

�� High School High School Dropouts EARN LESS Dropouts EARN LESS than graduatesthan graduates

$18,085

$26,104

$30,610

$47,317

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

Med

ian

Earn

ing

s (

$)

HS Dropout HS Graduate Some College College Graduate

Median Earnings (2004)

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Economic Impact over a Lifetime

�� Compared to a graduate, a single Compared to a graduate, a single 1818--yearyear--old dropout:old dropout:

�� Earns Earns $260,000$260,000 less over a lifetimeless over a lifetime

�� Contributes Contributes $60,000$60,000 less in federal and state less in federal and state income taxesincome taxes

�� Combined income and tax losses for one Combined income and tax losses for one cohort of 18cohort of 18--yearyear--olds who drop out:olds who drop out:

�� $192 billion$192 billion

�� 1.6 percent1.6 percent of gross domestic productof gross domestic product

SOURCE: Cecilia Rouse, economist, Princeton UniversitySOURCE: Cecilia Rouse, economist, Princeton University

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Graduation in an era of Accountability

�� No Child Left Behind (NCLB)No Child Left Behind (NCLB)�� Federal law signed January 2002Federal law signed January 2002

�� PerformancePerformance--based accountability with focus on based accountability with focus on test scorestest scores

�� NCLB NCLB alsoalso holds schools accountable for holds schools accountable for graduation rates graduation rates �� Graduation part of adequate yearly progress (AYP)Graduation part of adequate yearly progress (AYP)

�� Why have graduation accountability in the law?Why have graduation accountability in the law?�� To safeguard against To safeguard against ""pushpush--out out ""

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Some Good News

�� We are getting better at identifying We are getting better at identifying

students at risk of dropping outstudents at risk of dropping out

�� Promising intervention strategies for Promising intervention strategies for

combating the crisiscombating the crisis

�� Active policy leadershipActive policy leadership

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Giving Voice to a Crisis

“People think we’re ignorant. A lot of us already know what we want, but people aren’t showing us the right path to help us get there. We ask and ask, and when people don’t show you, you stop asking.”

Sa’Brina Reeves, 16,Indianapolis, Ind.

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Discovering the Graduation Crisis

Report Disputes U.S. High School Graduation Rates

Worst Rates of Graduation Are in New York,

Study Says

Minority graduation rate lags, study says

Study: Graduate rate is inflated, School districts find a loophole

Study shows racial divide in graduation

Chicago Works to Keep Teens in School Would-be dropouts and their parents must sign

a waiver warning of the decision's consequences.

Minority high school graduation rate just 50

Study finds low local graduation figure

Jefferson school officials dispute accuracy of report

Official high school dropout rates misrep

study says

Disparities in grad rates high in state, Connecticut is among 10 states with the worst racial disparities in high school graduation rates

United Press International

Graduation rates subject to doubt

Minorities' graduation rates low,

report says

Study: Colo. lags in minority grad rate

State officials say report's figures off

When Jose fails TAKS, has HISD failed him?

Low Graduation Rate Reported

Report Finds Only One Half Of Minority High School

Students Graduate In Four Years...

US black pupils still missing out. Only half of black

high school students in the United States are

graduating - says a report.

Who is, isn't being fitted for high school cap, gown

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Say it ain’t so ...

�� Is it possible that we do not know what Is it possible that we do not know what the graduation rate is?the graduation rate is?

�� Consider this Consider this ……�� Until Until this past Octoberthis past October, the U.S. Department of , the U.S. Department of

Education Education did notdid not report an annual public school report an annual public school graduation rate for the graduation rate for the nationnation

�� and this and this ……�� Before 2002, 8 Before 2002, 8 statesstates based rewards/sanctions based rewards/sanctions

on graduation rateson graduation rates

�� Only 1 state reported subgroup graduation rates Only 1 state reported subgroup graduation rates in school report cardsin school report cards

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Asking the Obvious Question

Do we have a problem with graduation rates?

(At least, is it big enough that we need to do something about it?)

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Is there a problem with graduation rates?

�� Answer 1: NOAnswer 1: NO

�� Graduation rates are high and stable Graduation rates are high and stable -- probably canprobably can’’t go much highert go much higher

High School Completion Rate by Year (CPS)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Year

Co

mp

leti

on

Ra

te (

%)

Total

85.8%

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Is there a problem?

�� Answer 2: MAYBEAnswer 2: MAYBE

�� Graduation rates high BUT there are large disparities among grouGraduation rates high BUT there are large disparities among groupsps

High School Completion Rate by Year

for Major Racial-Ethnic Groups (CPS)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Year

Co

mp

leti

on

Ra

te (

%)

White

Total

Black

Hispanic

92.1%

84.0%

70.1%

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Is there a problem?

�� Answer 3: YESAnswer 3: YES

�� Why?Why?�� Graduation rates Graduation rates

are actually much are actually much lower than lower than supposedsupposed

�� RacialRacial--Ethnic gaps Ethnic gaps are largeare large

�� Sizeable and very Sizeable and very consistent gender consistent gender gap gap

�� Large differences Large differences across states and across states and different kinds of different kinds of districtsdistricts

87.5

69.6

92.2

76.2

85.4

51.6

69.6

55.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

All

Students

White Black Hispanic

Current Population Survey (CPS) Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI)

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate

(%

)

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Navigating the Maze

�� Multiple sources of information about high school Multiple sources of information about high school completioncompletion

�� Statistics in current circulation mostly come from Statistics in current circulation mostly come from ……�� Common Core of Data (CCD) Common Core of Data (CCD) -- U.S. Department of EducationU.S. Department of Education

�� Current Population Survey (CPS) Current Population Survey (CPS) -- BLS, Dept. Labor, CensusBLS, Dept. Labor, Census

�� State Reported Statistics State Reported Statistics -- State Education Agencies NationalState Education Agencies National

�� Longitudinal Studies Longitudinal Studies -- U.S. Department of EducationU.S. Department of Education

�� No one data source is perfect. Different data sourcesNo one data source is perfect. Different data sources……�� Ask/answer different questionsAsk/answer different questions

�� Uncritical eyes don't see same things in the dataUncritical eyes don't see same things in the data�� Can't tell the apples from the orangesCan't tell the apples from the oranges

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Pros and Cons of the Common Core

�� Common Core of Data (CCD)Common Core of Data (CCD)�� U.S. Dept of Education (ED)U.S. Dept of Education (ED)

�� Advantages of the CCDAdvantages of the CCD

�� AnnualAnnual censuscensus of all public schools and districtsof all public schools and districts

�� Uniform definitions Uniform definitions for data across statesfor data across states

�� Distinguishes completion type Distinguishes completion type (diploma vs. other)(diploma vs. other)

�� Administrative dataAdministrative data (not self(not self--reported)reported)

�� Local rates Local rates can be calculated (down to district level)can be calculated (down to district level)

�� Disaggregate ratesDisaggregate rates for demographic groupsfor demographic groups

�� Limitations of the CCDLimitations of the CCD

�� Missing pieces of data we would like to haveMissing pieces of data we would like to have

�� Grade retentionGrade retention

�� Mobility/transferMobility/transfer

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

The CPS (a.k.a. "the Conventional Wisdom")

�� Current Population Survey (CPS)Current Population Survey (CPS)

�� Census/Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)/U.S. Dept of Education (Census/Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)/U.S. Dept of Education (ED)ED)

�� Advantages of the CPSAdvantages of the CPS

�� Authoritative source of Authoritative source of economic economic indicators indicators

�� LongLong--standing source of data on standing source of data on adultadult educational attainmenteducational attainment

�� Some Limitations of the CPSSome Limitations of the CPS

�� Sample survey Sample survey (of adult non(of adult non--institutionalized population)institutionalized population)

�� Coverage problems Coverage problems for some populations (e.g., incarcerated, transient)for some populations (e.g., incarcerated, transient)

�� SelfSelf--report or secondreport or second--hand information hand information on high school completionon high school completion

�� Cannot reliably distinguish completion type Cannot reliably distinguish completion type (e.g., diploma vs. GED)(e.g., diploma vs. GED)

�� No local estimates No local estimates below state levelbelow state level

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

State-Reported Statistics

�� State Education AgenciesState Education Agencies

�� 50 states plus District of Columbia50 states plus District of Columbia

�� Report graduation rates for NCLB Report graduation rates for NCLB andand other purposesother purposes

�� The ProsThe Pros

�� TimelyTimely -- available before other sourcesavailable before other sources

�� Local Local -- generated down to school levelgenerated down to school level

�� Relevant Relevant -- used for accountability purposesused for accountability purposes

�� The ConsThe Cons

�� Not comparable Not comparable from statefrom state--toto--statestate

�� Most states use dropout data Most states use dropout data to estimate graduation rateto estimate graduation rate

�� Detailed data Detailed data not publicly availablenot publicly available

�� Other concerns Other concerns about state practicesabout state practices

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Mapping Out State Formulas

Calculation Formula

Leaver Rate (33)

Cohort - State (6)

Cohort- Local (4)

Persistence (3)

Completion (2)

Dropout (1)

On-time Rate (1)

Composite Rate (1)

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Eye of the Beholder

�� StateState--reported graduates consistently higher than independent researchreported graduates consistently higher than independent research

26

2322

22

2019 19

1817

16 1615

14 14 1312 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7

5 43 3 3 3

-2

31

32

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Perc

en

tag

e P

oin

t D

iffe

ren

ce

Difference between State-Reported Rates and CPI Value

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Understanding the Problem

A Road Map to the A Road Map to the Graduation CrisisGraduation Crisis

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

A Brief Detour, before hitting the road

�� How do we calculate graduation rates?How do we calculate graduation rates?

�� Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI)Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI)

�� Follow stepFollow step--byby--step progress through high schoolstep progress through high school

�� Only standard diplomas countOnly standard diplomas count

�� Data fromData from

�� Common Core of Data (CCD) 2002Common Core of Data (CCD) 2002--0303

�� Calculate rates for every district in the countryCalculate rates for every district in the country

�� The formula (nonThe formula (non--technical version)technical version)

12th graders 200211th graders 200210th graders 20029th graders 2002

Diplomas 2002X

12th graders 2003X

11th graders 2003X

10th graders 2003CPI =

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Three in 10 students do not receive diploma

�� National graduation rate:National graduation rate:

�� Q: Where are students Q: Where are students lost from the high school lost from the high school pipeline?pipeline?

�� A: The A: The CPICPI can tell you.can tell you.

69.6%for all students

100

8981

7570

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9th grade 10th grade 11th grade 12th grade Graduation

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

9th Grade Greatest Source of Loss

�� Where are students lost Where are students lost from the high school from the high school pipeline? pipeline?

�� Over oneOver one--third third of the loss of the loss

happens in the transition happens in the transition

from 9th to10th grade. from 9th to10th grade.

�� In In most statesmost states 9th grade 9th grade

is greatest source of lossis greatest source of loss

�� Disadvantaged districts Disadvantaged districts

have more severe have more severe

freshman lossfreshman loss

11th grade

20%

9th grade

35%

12th grade

17%

10th grade

28%

Percent of loss

by grade

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

69.6

47.451.6

55.6

76.2 77.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

AllStudents

AmericanIndian

Black Hispanic White Asian

National Graduation Rates 2002-03

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate

(%

)

Large Racial Disparities�� Historically disadvantaged minorities much less likely to graduaHistorically disadvantaged minorities much less likely to graduatete

�� 25 percentage point gap between Blacks and Whites25 percentage point gap between Blacks and Whites

25% gap

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

The Gender Gap�� Male students less likely to graduate Male students less likely to graduate -- 8% gap nationally8% gap nationally

�� Female advantage seen across all racialFemale advantage seen across all racial--ethnic groupsethnic groups

65

73

4348

44

58

50

60

7278

7380

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

All Students American

Indian

Black Hispanic White Asian

National Graduation Rates 2002-03

Male Female

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate

(%

)

8% gap

5%

14%

10%

6%

7%

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

69.6

60.0

74.470.5

73.1

56.2

75.1

54.9

74.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

AllDistricts

Urban Suburban Town Rural High Low HIgh Low

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate

(%

)

Local Context Matters�� Graduation rates much lower for all students in urban, impoverisGraduation rates much lower for all students in urban, impoverished, hed,

and segregated communitiesand segregated communities

Racial Segregation Economic Segregation

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Mapping Out Graduation Rates

Graduation Rate2002-03

> 75% (15)

70-75% (17)

60-70% (13)

< 60% (6)

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

REALLY Mapping Out Graduation Rates

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Around the Beltway

DC

Balt

Montgomery

PrinceGeorges

Loudon

FairfaxArl.

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Chicagoland

Chicago Public Schools

Evanston

HammondEast Chicago

Gary

New Trier

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

The City So Nice … NY, NY

New York City Public Schools

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

The Deep South

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

State Policy Roadmap

Diplomas Count Diplomas Count examines policies related to examines policies related to

high school graduationhigh school graduation

�� CoursetakingCoursetaking and credits for standard diploma and credits for standard diploma

�� State exit exams State exit exams

�� High school credentials offered by stateHigh school credentials offered by state

�� Compulsory age for attending public schoolCompulsory age for attending public school

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Counting Credits

�� Average state requires 20.5 credits for standard diplomaAverage state requires 20.5 credits for standard diploma�� Typically: 4 in English, 3 each in Math, Science, Social StudiesTypically: 4 in English, 3 each in Math, Science, Social Studies

Total Credits for Standard Diploma

> 22 credits (9)

21-22 credits (18)

17-20 credits (11)

< 17 credits (6)

Local or other (7)

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

How Many "Diplomas"

�� Most states offer multiple high school credential optionsMost states offer multiple high school credential options�� 26 states have alternative credentials for less than standard re26 states have alternative credentials for less than standard requirementsquirements

High School Credentials

Standard diplomas only (18)

Advanced recognition (7)

Alternative credential (9)

Advanced & Alternative (17)

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Testing Out

�� Close to half of states (23) require the Class of 2005Close to half of states (23) require the Class of 2005--06 to 06 to pass an exit exam to receive a standard diplomapass an exit exam to receive a standard diploma

High School Exit Examfor Class of 2005-06

Yes (23)

No (28)

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Testing Trends

�� Since 2002, more states have established exit exams and Since 2002, more states have established exit exams and more of those tests are based on 10th grade standardsmore of those tests are based on 10th grade standards

17

23

6

18

1012

0

5

10

15

20

25

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Nu

mb

er

of

sta

tes

State requires exit exam

Exam based on 10th grade standards

State funds remediation

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Aging Out

�� Compulsory attendance age ranges from 16 to 18 years oldCompulsory attendance age ranges from 16 to 18 years old�� Students can leave school at 16 in almost half of statesStudents can leave school at 16 in almost half of states

Compulsory Attendance Agefor Public School

16 years old (23)

17 years old (10)

18 years old (18)

D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6

Online Extras

� Diplomas Count online atwww.edweek.org/dc06

� State Graduation Briefs www.edweek.org/dc06/SGB

� Get Maps Now!www.edweek.org/dc06/maps

� Coming Soon!� Download a special report

for your district

� Interactive power mapping