Plaza Three 101-2000 Argentia Rd.

Mississauga, Ontario Canada L5N 1V9

Phone: (905) 272-3600

Fax: (905) 272-3602

e-mail: info@watson-econ.ca

August 28, 2015 Re: Bronte Green Corporation OMB Case No. PL141318

Witness Statement of Jack Ammendolia Qualifications

I am a Director and head of the Education Division at Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., a land

economist consulting firm in Mississauga, Ontario. I have provided consulting services to school boards

and government agencies across Canada since 1998 and have worked with more than 40 Ontario school

boards. I specialize in studying school aged demographics and have completed hundreds of enrolment

projection forecasts for school boards. I have also prepared long term accommodation reports for school

boards, which incorporate strategies and recommendations based on a board’s accommodation needs

and the number and location of facilities necessary to accommodate those needs.

I am a Professional Land Economist (PLE) designated by the Association of Ontario Land Economists and

am a member of the Council for Education Facilities Planners International (CEFPI). I graduated from the

University of Waterloo in 1997 with an Honours Bachelor’s Degree of Environmental Studies, from the

School of Urban and Regional Planning.

Issue

I will be addressing the issue of the need for an elementary school site in the Bronte Green Lands.

Background

The need for a new elementary school in the Merton planning area is based on a variety of factors and

variables. School site needs are not determined based solely on projected pupil generation and available

capacity. School boards, however, must consider factors such as transportation, board enrolment shares,

school programs and Ministry of Education initiatives etc. School boards have a responsibility to

communities to plan for walkable, neighborhood schools that account for natural boundaries and a variety

of other factors.

Planning for new schools or new school sites must be initiated well in advance of school construction and

opening. New school construction is based on enrolment projections that rely on many of the factors

referred to above and assumptions that may change over time. In the current residential development

landscape, school boards often only have one chance to identify and designate a school site before the

land is developed for residential or other purposes.

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2.

BRONTE

The proposed residential development in the subject lands, according to the Bronte Green draft plan of

subdivision, is forecast to total 860 residential units made up of 531 low density units, 229 medium density

units and 100 high density units. If a 5 acre school site is included as part of the residential development,

it would remove approximately 49 single family homes. According to the Halton District School Board’s

(“HDSB”) enrolment projections, the forecasted residential units are projected to yield approximately 207

new elementary students.

Elementary Review Area’s 114 and 115

The subject lands are located in the HDSB’s Elementary Review Area (“ERA”) 114 and the lands are

adjacent to the Board’s ERA 115 (See attached map). ERA 114 has 3 existing elementary schools and

ERA 115 has 5 existing elementary schools. The HDSB’s enrolment projections for these areas indicate

that ERA 114 will have a total of 257 surplus spaces by 2024 that will be spread over the 3 elementary

schools in the area and ERA 115 will have a total of 187 surplus spaces spread over the 5 elementary

schools.

ERA 114 is bounded by 14 mile creek to the east, the Queen Elizabeth Way (QEW) highway to the south

and the Bronte Creek Provincial Park lands to the west. The three existing elementary schools in the ERA

are closely concentrated in the north-east portion of the review area, all north of Upper Middle Road. All

3 schools are currently operating over permanent capacity and require portables or temporary capacity to

accommodate total enrolment. While enrolment is projected to decline and the review area is forecast to

have more than 250 surplus spaces by 2024, only 1 school, Palermo Public School, is projected to have

more than 100 surplus spaces. It should also be noted that this school offers both Core English and French

Immersion programming, which may impact the number of surplus spaces that are available depending

on program availability and demand. The remaining elementary schools in the area are projected to have

somewhere between 70-80 surplus spaces each, assuming the projections are realized. There is not a

single school or even grouping of two schools that can accommodate the projected enrolment from the

proposed Bronte Green developments.

ERA 115 is located to the east of the subject lands on the opposite side of14 Mile Creek. The creek is a

natural barrier between the subject lands and the elementary schools located in ERA 115 as there are no

roads or pedestrian access across the creek adjacent to or nearby the proposed developments. Access

across 14 Mile Creek from the subject lands is by way of the QEW or Service Road to the south or via

Upper Middle Road to the north.

The majority of elementary schools in this ERA are operating above capacity and rely on temporary

accommodations (portables) to accommodate enrolment. While enrolments are projected to decline at

some of the schools by 2024, only Abbey Lane and Pilgrim Wood elementary schools are expected to

have surplus spaces, with approximately 150 and 100 respectively. As discussed for ERA 114, there is

not a single school that can accommodate projected enrolments from the proposed developments. In

addition, Pilgrim Wood Public School is approximately 4KM away from the proposed development and

Abbey Lane Public School is more than 6KM away.

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 3.

BRONTE

In summary, to accommodate students projected from the proposed development (and assuming

projections are realized), the Board would have to address the following issues;

Provide transportation to most, if not all, of the students residing in the proposed development,

which would increase transportation requirements and costs.

Students residing in the proposed development would likely have to be accommodated at more

than one school in the surrounding area based on space requirements/distance.

Students residing in the proposed development would likely be transported past closer HDSB

elementary schools to schools that are further away which have available space.

The projected average bussing distance to schools closest to the subject lands that have available

surplus space is approximately 4 KMs. The average bussing distance for students attending

existing schools in ERA114 and 115 is approximately half of that at just over 2KMs.

The 4 core English elementary schools in ERA 114 and 115 are largely neighborhood, walkable

schools with less than 13% of enrolment attending these schools requiring bussing.

Need For An Elementary School Site

School board accommodation planning is designed to ensure that HDSB has the flexibility to account for

changing enrolment projections, policies or programs. While the HDSB’s enrolment projections indicate

the possibility of surplus space at some of the area schools in the longer term, the combined surplus space

in ERA’s 114 and 115 is less than 450. From a long-term planning perspective, considering the limited

number of surplus spaces and the number of schools that these spaces are distributed over, it is my opinion

that potential available space at existing elementary schools should not be relied upon as the long term

accommodation solution in these ERA’s.

The existing schools in ERA 114 and 115 are some of HDSB’s newest schools with an average age of 16

years. Most of these schools have been built in the last decade and were planned for based on Board

enrolment projections and forecasted residential growth. In most cases actual enrolments have exceeded

the Board’s projections in this area and many schools that were planned for and built in the last decade

have already required additions or portables to accommodate students. In ERA 115, the 4 elementary

schools constructed since 1989 have had a total of 24 new classrooms added on to the existing facilities.

The average capacity of the schools in ERA 114 and 115 is 683 with an average site size of just under 6

acres, which means most of these schools are already at a maximum built size. If actual enrolment

exceeds the projected enrolment, there are limited, if any, accommodation opportunities available through

additions to existing facilities.

As previously mentioned, enrolment projections rely on the best data available at the time, to inform a set

of assumptions. For example, both the forecast of new students in the subject lands as well as the

projections for existing schools in ERA 114 and 115 are based on development applications that have

been currently filed or programming as it exists today or enrolment shares based on historical trends.

Changes in one or more of these assumptions could result in significant impacts on future enrolments.

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 4.

BRONTE

Potential For Future Residential Development

If there is potential for future residential developments in the Merton planning area, this could increase the

potential number of future HDSB elementary students. In addition, there are residential developments in

ERA’s 114 and 115 that have not been finalized and are either under review or pending at the Ontario

Municipal Board. These developments could impact future enrolments and the projected available space

that might be used to accommodate students generated from residential development in the Merton

planning area.

Impact Of French Immersion Programming

Also, 4 of the 8 elementary schools in ERA’s 114 and 115 offer French Immersion (“FI”) programming,

which has been extremely successful for the HDSB. FI enrolment has increased by 130% over the past

10 years with more than 24% of the Board’s total elementary students enrolled in FI. Enrolment at the

schools in ERA’s 114 and 115 is expected to decline by 13% over the next 10 years, however, FI enrolment

is projected to increase by 13%. In 2014, FI enrolment comprised 30% of the total enrolment in ERA’s 114

and 115 and by 2024 it is expected to increase to 38%. Additional increases in FI participation or enrolment

growth closer to the 10 year Board-wide FI enrolment average, could cause additional enrolment pressures

in ERA’s 114 and 115.

Shifts In Enrolment Share

Enrolment share or participation share refers to the share of the school aged population that attends a

particular school board. In 2001, the HDSB had an approximate 53.5% share of the elementary population

in Halton Region and by 2011 it had increased to 59%. In ERA 114, the HDSB opened its first school in

2004 and by 2006 had a 32% share of the elementary population which increased to 50% by 2011. In

ERA 115, the participation share was 40% in 2001 and increased to 63% in 2011. Changes in enrolment

share can have significant impacts on enrolment and this single assumption can greatly alter projections.

These changes in enrolment share, particularly between Public and Catholic school boards, have become

more common over the past several years as immigration patterns, especially in the GTA, influence

enrolments. In the 1970’s, approximately 70% of immigrants to Canada originated from European

(predominantly Catholic) countries. Recent immigration patterns now suggest that approximately 70% of

immigrants to Canada originate from Asia (from Countries where the predominant religion is not Catholic)

accounting for some of the shift in Catholic and Public school participation rates.

Opinion Summary

A responsible school board accommodation strategy must consider options or alternatives to account for

changes in enrolments, programming or Ministry initiatives. Reserving a school site in the proposed Bronte

Green development would give the HDSB the most secure long-term accommodation solution. Should

the HDSB’s projected enrolments at surrounding schools be realized, the relatively few number of long-

term surplus spaces distributed over a number of different schools would severely limit the effectiveness

of accommodating students from the proposed development at existing elementary schools. In addition,

the notion of accommodating pupils from the proposed development in existing schools with available

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 5.

BRONTE

space, would increase long-term bussing requirements and costs, cause significant disruption both to the

community in the proposed development as well as existing school communities and result in the boundary

reconfigurations of multiple schools.

In sum, it is my opinion that an elementary school site is warranted in the Bronte Green Lands.

____________________________________

Jack Ammendolia

Director

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF EXPERT’S DUTY

Case Number Municipality

PL141318 Town of Oakville

1. My name is Jack Ammendolia

I live in the City Of Toronto

in the Province Of Ontario

2. I have been engaged by or on behalf of The Halton District School Board to provide evidence in relation to the above-noted Board proceeding.

3. I acknowledge that it is my duty to provide evidence in relation to this proceeding

as follows:

a. to provide opinion evidence that is fair, objective and non-partisan;

b. to provide opinion evidence that is related only to matters that are within my area of expertise; and

c. to provide such additional assistance as the Board may reasonably require,

to determine a matter in issue.

4. I acknowledge that the duty referred to above prevails over any obligation which I may owe to any party by whom or on whose behalf I am engaged.

August 28, 2015 ______________________________________

Signature

Ontario Municipal Board

Commission des affaires municipales de l’Ontario

Jack Ammendolia, BES, PLEDirector

EDUCATION

1997 Received Bachelor of Environmental Studies (Honours) – University of Waterloo, School ofUrban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Environmental Studies

EMPLOYMENT HISTORY

2012- Director, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. and head of the Education Division. Involved inschool board planning and the study of school-age demographics.

2007-12 Founded The Ammendolia Group, specializing in school board facility and capital planning,education development charges, demographic analysis and enrolment forecasting for schoolboards throughout Ontario. The Ammendolia Group was purchased by Watson & Associates in2012 and Jack returned to Watson & Associates to lead the company’s Education Division.

1999-07 Senior Consultant and Project Manager, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Jack has worked with over 45 school boards across Ontario and Canada since 1999. He has developed enrolmentprojections and demographic studies for over 30 school boards and has prepared enrolment projections for morethan 30 First Nation reserves for Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada. Over the past decade,Jack has been responsible for the project lead and calculation of education development charges for more than 25school boards and more than 50 EDC by-laws.

During his career, Jack has completed long term accommodation plans, accommodation reviews, schoolconsolidation studies and Ministry of Education Funding Business Cases for approximately 20 school boardsacross Ontario. He has conducted seminars on education development charge methodologies, presented atconferences throughout the Province on school-age demographics and enrolment projections and has liaised withMinistry of Education staff on education matters including education development charges, accommodation plansand school board funding matters.

Jack is a Professional Land Economist (PLE) and a member of the Ontario Land Economist Association. He isalso a member of the Council for Educational Facilities Planners International (CEFPI) and the Urban LandInstitute, and is a past member of the Canadian Institute of Planners.