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WitnessTestimonyDouglasR.Toomey,Ph.D.

Professor,DepartmentofGeologicalSciencesUniversityofOregon

OVERSIGHTHEARINGON:

“WholeLottaShakin’:AnExaminationofAmerica’sEarthquakeEarlyWarningSystemDevelopmentandImplementation”

BEFORETHEU.S.HOUSEOFREPRESENTATIVESCOMMITTEEONNATURALRESOURCES,SUBCOMMITTEEONENERGYANDMINERALRESOURCES

June10th,2014

GoodmorningChairmanLamborn,RankingMemberHolt,CongressmanDeFazio,andCommitteeMembers.IwanttothanktheChairmanandallmembersofthecommitteefortheopportunitytosubmittestimonyaboutaWestCoastEarthquakeEarlyWarning(EEW)system.IwouldalsoliketothanktheChairmanandallmembersofthecommitteefortheirleadershipinholdingthishearing.IamDouglasToomey,aprofessorofgeophysicsattheUniversityofOregon.IleadtheCascadiaInitiative,afour‐year,$30millionprojectfundedbytheNationalScienceFoundationthatfeaturesthelargestarrayofonshore‐offshoreearthquake‐measuringinstrumentsinU.S.history.Thisonshore/offshoreseismicandgeodeticexperimentusesanamphibiousarraytostudyquestionsrangingfrommegathrustearthquakestovolcanicarcstructuretotheformation,deformationandhydrationoftheJuanDeFucaandGordaplates.TheUniversityofOregonalsoparticipatesinthePacificNorthwestSeismicNetwork,acooperativeoperatedbytheUniversityofWashingtonandtheUniversityofOregon;itmonitorsearthquakeandvolcanicactivityinthePacificNorthwest.TodayIwillemphasizetheuniqueopportunitiesforanEarthquakeEarlyWarningsysteminthePacificNorthwest.IwilloutlinethehazardsoftheCascadiaSubductionZone,explainhowanEarthquakeEarlyWarningsystemcanbenefitthePacificNorthwest,anddevelopavisionforthefuturewhentheCascadiaSubductionZone—whichliesalmostentirelyoffshore—ismonitoredinrealtimebyoceanbottomobservatories.

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CascadiaSubductionZoneAmagnitude9(M9)earthquakeandtsunamicomparabletothosethatoccurredinAlaskain1964,Sumatrain2004,Chilein2010,andJapanin2011,has,andwillagain,hitthePacificNorthwest.ThesourceofthisdevastatingearthquakewillbetheCascadiaSubductionZone,whichliesbeneaththecoastalareasofNorthernCalifornia,OregonandWashington.It’sbeenmorethan300yearssincethelastgreatearthquakeandtsunamialongthesubductionzone,andwe’reinthewindowforitsrecurrence;weknowthatenoughenergyhasbuiltupasdeformationintherocksaroundthefaulttopoweramagnitude9quake.ThePacificNorthwestisunpreparedforacatastropheofthisscale.FEMAestimatesthatthedirectfinanciallosseswouldbe$60billion,whiletheInsuranceBureauofCanadaexpectslossesofapproximately$75billioninCanada.Bycomparison,theestimatedlossesfromtheChristchurch,NewZealand,magnitude6earthquakeexceeds$18billion,andinaJanuary2012pressrelease,thereinsurerMunichREestimatedJapaneselossesat$210billion.BecausetheCascadiafaultzoneliesoffshore,wedonotunderstanditaswellasonshorefaults,whichcanbemonitoredthrougheasyandrelativelyinexpensivemeans.However,severalongoinginitiativesandmonitoringefforts–includingtheNSF‐supportedCascadiaandOceanObservatoriesInitiativesandtheUSGS‐supportedAdvancedNationalSeismicSystem–arelayingasolidfoundationforassessingandhelpingtomitigatetheseismicandtsunamigenichazardsofthenextgreatearthquakeinthePacificNorthwest.Aslaudableastheseeffortsare,however,theyfallwellshortofprovidingsocietywithreal‐timewarningstotakeemergencyaction.OnlyaWestCoastEarthquakeEarlyWarningsystemcanprovideadvancewarningsthatwillsavelives,protectbusinesses,andfacilitateamorerapidrecoveryforlocalcommunities,thefederalgovernment,andtheeconomyasawhole.AnEarthquakeEarlyWarning(EEW)SystemfortheU.S.WestCoastAnEarthquakeEarlyWarningsystemiswellsuitedfortheimpendingmagnitude9earthquakeonthePacificNorthwestcoast.ThisisbecausethemostpowerfulearthquakesinthePacificNorthwestoccuralongafaultthatliesprimarilyoffshore,asopposedtodirectlybeneathmajormetropolitanareas.Giventheimmenselengthofthisfault,ifitweretobeginrupturinginthesouth—asresearchindicates—Portlandcouldreceiveawarningasmuchasthreeminutes

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–andSeattle,asmuchasfiveminutes–priortotheearthquakehitting.EveninEugene,Oregon,whereIlive,ourschools,businesses,andhospitalscouldbewarnedasmuchastwominutesbeforetheshakingstarts.Twominutesisalongtime.Iaskedaprincipalofalocalelementaryschool,whichwasbuiltin1926,howlongitwouldtaketoevacuateall350students.Theanswer:Aminuteandahalf.Thisisjustoneofthe1,000schoolsthatarecentstateofOregonstudyconcludedwouldcollapseinanmagnitude9event.BecausemanystructuresinOregonwerebuiltpriortocurrentstandardsforseismicstability,itisimperativethatweoperateanEarthquakeEarlyWarningsystemsoourschoolsandpublicbuildingscanbesafelyevacuated.TodrivehomejusthowunpreparedthePacificNorthwestis,considerthemapinFigure1.ThismapshowsseismicstationsoperatedbythePacificNorthwestSeismicNetwork.ObservethenearabsenceofearthquakemonitoringsiteswithinthelargeredcircleencompassingsouthwesternOregon.IfwepresumethatthenextmassiveearthquakeintheCascadiaSubductionZonebeginsinNorthernCaliforniaandunzipstothenorth,thenitisobviousthatourcurrentcapacitytodetectearthquakesinthiscrucialregioniswoefullyinadequateforprotectingsociety.AnonshoreEarthquakeEarlyWarningsystemisentirelypossiblewiththetechnologyandscientificknowledgeathand.Theonlythingthatismissingisthefundingtodevelopthismuch‐neededsystem.TheopinionofthePacificNorthwestSeismicNetworkisthatoncefundingisavailable,ahigh‐performanceEarthquakeEarlyWarningsystemfortheWestCoastis,atmost,fiveyearsaway.TheCaseforOceanBottomObservatoriesStudiesinthewakeofrecentmagnitude9earthquakesinJapanandChileshowincreasingevidencethatsubductionzones,likeCascadia,shimmy–sometimesfordaysorevenweeks‐‐beforetheyshake.Toinvestigatethis,scientistsaredeployingoceanbottomseismometersdirectlyabovesubductionzonefaults.TheNSF‐supportedCascadiaInitiative,forexample,hasdeployedhundredsofseismometersalongthecoastofthePacificNorthwest.TheseseismometersformthepotentialbackboneofanoffshoreEarthquakeEarlyWarningsystem,butthecurrentmethodofretrievingdata—whichisdonebyship,onceperyear—isimpracticalforthatpurpose.Ifseafloor

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cablesattachedtheseismometers,theycouldprovidereal‐time,near‐fieldmonitoringoftheCascadiaSubductionZone.Byalteringthefunctionofinstrumentsthatarealreadyinplaceontheoceanfloor,wecanfundamentallytransformourabilitytomonitorCascadia.Intheeventofanmagnitude9earthquake,cabledoceanbottomseismometerswillincreasethewarningtimeandmakeearthquakeandtsunamiwarningsmoreaccurate.Cabledoceanbottomseismometerswillalsoacceleratediscovery,byallowingscientiststobettermonitorthecreaksandgroansthatoccurpriortocatastrophicfailure.Thetechnologynecessaryforcabledoceanobservatoriesisproven.Japanisinvesting$1billiontoinstallseafloorobservatories,inpartmotivatedbytheunusualeventsthatwererecordedbyseafloorinstrumentspriortothe2011magnitude9Tohokuearthquake.TheNSF‐fundedOceanObservatoriesInitiativeiscurrentlyinstallingamodest‐sizedseafloorobservatoryinthePacificNorthwest.TheseeffortsshouldbeexpandedtoincludeanoffshoreEarthquakeEarlyWarningsystem.Summary

OnlyaWestCoastEarthquakeEarlyWarningsystemcanprovideadvancewarningsthatwillsavelives,protectbusinesses,andfacilitateamorerapidrecoveryforlocalcommunities,thefederalgovernment,andtheeconomyasawhole.

AnEarthquakeEarlyWarningsystemisideallysuitedtotheCascadiaSubductionZoneinthePacificNorthwest.

ExtendingEarthquakeEarlywarningoffshorewillincreasethewarningtime,theaccuracyofwarnings,andfundamentallytransformourcapacitytomonitoractivitythatprecedesthenextmagnitude9event.

ThankyouMisterChairmanandthecommitteeforyourleadershiponthisvitalissue.

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Figure 1.  Map of seismic stations in the Pacific Northwest Seismic 

Network.  Red oval indicates region of poor station coverage in 

southwestern Oregon.