Sylvain Saint-PierreDirector for Environment and Radiological ProtectionWorld Nuclear Association

URAM-2009Vienna, Austria

June 22-26, 2009

WNA Worldwide Overview onFront-End Nuclear Fuel Cycle’s

Growth (Supply and Demand)

WNA Worldwide Overview onFront-End Nuclear Fuel Cycle’s

Growth (Supply and Demand)

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World Nuclear Association - WNAThe trade association of the global nuclear industry with a worldwide membership• Based in London, UK• WNA: http://www.world-nuclear.org• WNN: http://www.world-nuclear-news.orgOur membership makes us unique, global and truly representative• Over 180 industry enterprises from over 30 countries• Over 90% of world uranium production and nuclear power generation

Our membership makes us unique, global and truly representative• Over 180 industry enterprises from over 30 countries• Over 90% of world uranium production and nuclear power generation

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PART I

OVERVIEW OF FRONT-ENDNUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE’S:

GROWTH

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World Uranium and Nuclear Power

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The Nuclear Fuel Cycle MiningMining

ConversionConversionEnrichmentEnrichment

Fuelfabrication

Nuclear Power Plant

ReprocessingWaste

Uranium

Plutonium

Back-endReactors & ServicesFront-end

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World Reference : WNA’s Market Report

Demand for nuclear fuel depends on two factors•Number and size of reactors in operation•How they are run – load/capacity factors, enrichment level, burn-up and tails assay

Demand for nuclear fuel depends on two factors•Number and size of reactors in operation•How they are run – load/capacity factors, enrichment level, burn-up and tails assayReactor operators buy separately uranium and conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication servicesReactor operators buy separately uranium and conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication services

Nuclear powerNuclear powerNuclear power

U productionU production U conversionU conversion

U enrichmentU enrichmentFuel fabricationFuel fabrication

Growth depends on Supply and

Demand!Growth depends on Supply and

Demand!

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World Reference : WNA’s Market ReportConsiders 3 scenarios approach to nuclear power demand (2007-2030):•Reference case•Upper case•Lower case

Considers 3 scenarios approach to nuclear power demand (2007-2030):•Reference case•Upper case•Lower case

Generic assumptions underlie each scenario on:• nuclear economics• public acceptance•impact of climate change debate and electricity market structure

Generic assumptions underlie each scenario on:• nuclear economics• public acceptance•impact of climate change debate and electricity market structure

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Nuclear power capacity to 2030, GWe net2007 Market Report

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

2 00 32 0

0 52 0

0 72 0

0 92 0

1 12 0

1 32 0

1 52 0

1 72 0

1 92 0

2 12 0

2 32 0

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2 72 0

2 9

GW

e ne

t

Lower Scenario Reference Scenario Upper Scenario

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Nuclear power capacity to 2030, GWe net2009 Market Report draft

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URANIUM MINING:GROWTH

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Distribution of Uranium resources

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Low cost (

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World Uranium production 2008, tUCanada 9000Kazakhstan 8521Australia 8430Namibia 4366Russia 3521Niger 3032Uzbekistan 2338USA 1430Others 3292

Total 43930 tU

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U requirements to 2030, tU2007 Market Report

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2 00 32 0

0 42 0

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0 92 0

1 02 0

1 12 0

1 22 0

1 32 0

1 42 0

1 52 0

1 62 0

1 72 0

1 82 0

1 92 0

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2 22 0

2 32 0

2 42 0

2 52 0

2 62 0

2 72 0

2 82 0

2 92 0

3 0to

nnes

U

Lower Scenario Reference Scenario Upper Scenario

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Uranium requirements to 2030, tU –2009 Market Report draft

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Implied need for primary uranium production –requirements less secondary supplies

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

2 00 62 0

0 72 0

0 82 0

0 92 0

1 02 0

1 12 0

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tonn

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Requirements Lower minus Secondary UpperRequirements Reference minus Secondary UpperRequirements Upper minus Secondary Upper

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Uranium Mining Outlook1. U market has sound supply up to 2015-20 but meeting

demand becomes likely more challenging thereafter1. U market has sound supply up to 2015-20 but meeting

demand becomes likely more challenging thereafter2. Primary U supply (mining) needs to rise sharply to

meet rising market demand• Canada and Australia will expand, key increases from Kazakhstan, new producing countries in Africa

2. Primary U supply (mining) needs to rise sharply to meet rising market demand• Canada and Australia will expand, key increases from Kazakhstan, new producing countries in Africa

3. In-situ leach (ISL) will represent a greater share but conventional mining is to remain dominant

3. In-situ leach (ISL) will represent a greater share but conventional mining is to remain dominant

4. Secondary supplies will remain important:• Ex-military material, commercial inventories, MOX-RepU

4. Secondary supplies will remain important:• Ex-military material, commercial inventories, MOX-RepU

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URANIUM CONVERSION:GROWTH

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Conversion - Basics

Enrichment for light water reactors (PWR) requires conversion to UF6 – [Serves 90% of all nuclear reactors]CANDU reactors require direct conversion to UO25 major UF6 conversion suppliers – Cameco, Springfields, Comurhex, ConverDyn and RosatomUO2 conversion by Cameco and domestic suppliers in Argentina, China, India and Romania

Enrichment for light water reactors (PWR) requires conversion to UF6 – [Serves 90% of all nuclear reactors]CANDU reactors require direct conversion to UO25 major UF6 conversion suppliers – Cameco, Springfields, Comurhex, ConverDyn and RosatomUO2 conversion by Cameco and domestic suppliers in Argentina, China, India and Romania

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UF6 conversion requirements to 2030, tU

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2 00 32 0

0 42 0

0 52 0

0 62 0

0 72 0

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0 92 0

1 02 0

1 12 0

1 22 0

1 32 0

1 42 0

1 52 0

1 62 0

1 72 0

1 82 0

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2 02 0

2 12 0

2 22 0

2 32 0

2 42 0

2 52 0

2 62 0

2 72 0

2 82 0

2 92 0

3 0

tonn

es U

Lower Scenario Reference Scenario Upper Scenario

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Uranium Conversion Outlook1. UF6 conversion will expand to cope with rising demand

• Replacement of present plant in France, and expansion of facilities elsewhere

1. UF6 conversion will expand to cope with rising demand• Replacement of present plant in France, and expansion of

facilities elsewhere

2. Small-scale UO2 conversion facilities may continue in a few countries but Cameco will remain dominant

2. Small-scale UO2 conversion facilities may continue in a few countries but Cameco will remain dominant

3. World UF6 conversion demand will rise steadily in line with overall U requirements3. World UF6 conversion demand will rise steadily in line with overall U requirements

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URANIUM ENRICHMENT:GROWTH

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Enrichment - Basics

U-235 is enriched from 0.71% (natural) to 3-5% (typical): [ Such fuel is needed for 90% of power reactors ]2 main technologies – older gaseous diffusion and more recent centrifugesInvestment in laser enrichment so far remains unrewarded by commercial applicationNote: Effort to enrich measured in Separative Work Units (SWUs)

U-235 is enriched from 0.71% (natural) to 3-5% (typical): [ Such fuel is needed for 90% of power reactors ]2 main technologies – older gaseous diffusion and more recent centrifugesInvestment in laser enrichment so far remains unrewarded by commercial applicationNote: Effort to enrich measured in Separative Work Units (SWUs)

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Enrichment – Supply

4 large suppliers of primary enrichment services– USEC (USA), Areva (France), Urenco (Western

Europe) and Rosatom (Russia)USEC and Areva use gas diffusion, Urenco and Rosatom use centrifuges JNFL (Japan) and CNNC (China) also primary suppliersHeavy current investment in new centrifuge plants by USEC, Areva and Urenco in USA and by Areva in France

4 large suppliers of primary enrichment services– USEC (USA), Areva (France), Urenco (Western

Europe) and Rosatom (Russia)USEC and Areva use gas diffusion, Urenco and Rosatom use centrifuges JNFL (Japan) and CNNC (China) also primary suppliersHeavy current investment in new centrifuge plants by USEC, Areva and Urenco in USA and by Areva in France

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Enrichment requirements to 2030

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2 00 32 0

0 42 0

0 52 0

0 62 0

0 72 0

0 82 0

0 92 0

1 02 0

1 12 0

1 22 0

1 32 0

1 42 0

1 52 0

1 62 0

1 72 0

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1 92 0

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2 22 0

2 32 0

2 42 0

2 52 0

2 62 0

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thou

sand

SW

U

Lower Scenario Reference Scenario Upper Scenario

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Uranium Enrichment Outlook1. The key change is the gradual replacement of older

gas diffusion plants (France, USA) by gas centrifuge plants

1. The key change is the gradual replacement of older gas diffusion plants (France, USA) by gas centrifuge plants

2. Elsewhere, Western Europe and Russia will likely expand their centrifuge capacity

2. Elsewhere, Western Europe and Russia will likely expand their centrifuge capacity

3. Investors in the SILEX laser technology will try to commercialise it within the next 5 years

3. Investors in the SILEX laser technology will try to commercialise it within the next 5 years

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Overall Outlook on NFC Front-End GrowthU MiningSound growth until 2015-2020. Becomes challenging thereafterU MiningSound growth until 2015-2020. Becomes challenging thereafter

U ConversionSound growth with rising demandU ConversionSound growth with rising demand

U EnrichmentSound growth with rising demand. Technology changeU EnrichmentSound growth with rising demand. Technology change

Thank you for your attentionQuestions?

saintpierre@world-nuclear.org