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24 May, 2017

http://whatwood.ru/english



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Russian softwood lumber industry:

capacities, competitive environment & sales markets

by WhatWood – Timber Industry Analytics

WhatWood / Kirill Baranov / 24 May 2017

Russian softwood lumber industry: capacities, competitive environment & sales markets 2



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Forest industry share in 2016 grew up to 1.9% mainly on high export revenues

Share of timber industry in Russia’s GDP



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0.03

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016



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Lumber sales in the general woodworking revenues (billion RUB)



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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Lumber, plywood, chipboard, fibreboard



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Several factors affect directly the

construction sector in recent years:

1. Stagnation in the economy

2. Shortage of affordable mortgage lending

3. Decrease in real disposable incomes of

Russians (-6% in 2016)

Housing volumes in Russia (+WhatWood outlook)



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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025



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Russian furniture production grew

dynamically after the economic crisis of

2009, but presently the industry is affected:

1. reduction in household incomes

2. general stagnation in the construction

sector

3. growing pressure of furniture from

Belarus and Asia

Furniture production in Russia



26.534.7

42.534.3 37.7

45.553.1 50.7 53.8 54.2 53.1

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35.7 39.245.3 44.3 43.962.3

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143.9 146.8 144.2

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



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1. Softwood lumber exports from Russia grew 11% to 24.8 million m3 in 2016, $2.9 billion

in value terms (+4%)

2. Capacity utilization rate at the largest Russian sawmills in 2016 increased up to 80-95%.

3. Low rouble rate helped Russian sawmills get extra profits in 2014-2015, but rate

volatility remains one of the key problems currently, as it makes financial planning very

complicated

4. Segezha Group is the largest Russian exporter of sawnwood after the purchase of

Lesosibirsky LDK-1 (900 thousand m3)

5. After reaching the bottom in the middle 2016, prices had been increasing until the end of

2016.

6. In the nearest 2-3 years, 3 million m3 of lumber capacities may appear in Russia

Lumber exports booming





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Top 50 sawmills capacity utilization





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1. Segezha Group 1.465 million m3: Lesosibirsk LDK-1, Onega LDK, Segezha LDK,

Sokolsky DOK (NW&Siberia – Europe, Egypt, China)

2. Russian Timber Group 1.0 million: TSLK, LDK Igirma, Tairiku (Siberia – China, Japan,

Central Asia)

3. Ilim Timber 0.7 (Siberia – supplies to China, Europe)

4. Titan Group 0.6: Lesozavod 25, LDK-3 (Northwest – Europe)

Major lumber holdings





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1. LDK-3 (2017, Northwest) – by Titan Group with Austrian shareholders, also owns

Arkhangelsk Pulpmill and Lesozavod-25

2. Solombala (2018-2020, Northwest) – by a group of top managers and European traders

3. RFP Group (2017, Far East) – the largest regional holding which trades veneer and logs

to China, Korea and Japan

Largest lumber mill projects





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Top 50 sawmills equipment





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Russian exports by global regions (thousand m3)



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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



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the menu bar: Price indices for Russian softwood lumber, $/m3

(more in WhatWood’s Lumber Report)





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Russian lumber in China





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1. Largest consumer of Russian lumber: 13.4m m3, +37% on-year

2. Sales shifted from Central Asia and MENA, esp. Egypt

3. Many border sawmills in Siberia supply very rough lumber to the other side of border

4. Canada lags far behind in recent years: -15% down to 3.87m m3 in 2016 to China

5. US duties may push Canadian lumber to Asia in 2017

6. Russian lumber reaches new niches in Southern and Central China

7. Chinese consumers start to have interest in premium quality lumber

8. NW Russia spruce also penetrates the Chinese market

9. Major increase in 2016 shipping rates from NW Russia to China ($20 to $60/m3)

Russian lumber in China





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Russian lumber in Europe (price index for Germany, $/m3)





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1. Sales to Europe +6% to 3.5 million m3 in 2016

2. Siberian larch is a premium and important product (joinery, windows, doors, stairs etc.)

3. European markets start growing in 2016: construction, furniture, parquet and pallets on

the growth track.

4. Germany and UK are the growth drivers

5. Commercial construction grows faster than housing

Russian lumber in Europe





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Russian lumber in Japan





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1. Japan: +7.4% to 910,000 m3 in 2016

2. Angara pine from Siberia (mostly planed) is used in special Japanese grades like taruki,

genban, mabashira etc. and competes with European products

3. Volumes and prices reached the bottom and started restoring

4. Deficit of high-quality pine sawlogs in Siberia for Japanese grades

Russian lumber in Japan





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Russian lumber in MENA (price index for Egypt, $/m3)





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1. MENA: -20% down to 2.5 million m3 in 2016

2. Egypt is the top consumer (edged pine for industrial construction)

3. Volumes from Egypt were redirected to China by the largest lumber groups in 2016

4. Acute competition with Finland and Sweden in Egypt

5. Iran consumes edged spruce, Russia enjoys almost unique position

Russian lumber in MENA





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WhatWood – Timber Industry Analytics:

1. the only Russian consulting company with core specialization in the timber industry

analytics

2. 130 clients in 15 countries within 5 years of timber market research

3. unique contact and knowledge base

About WhatWood





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Regular publications, annual industry reports, custom studies:

About WhatWood





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Thank you for your attention!

Kirill Baranov

WhatWood

Chief Editor

[email protected] | http://whatwood.ru

+7 905 704 5133

Contacts



mailto:[email protected]

http://whatwood.ru/

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