Woody EpsteinCurriculum Vitae

Who am I?

Since 1983, I have been a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) consultant, manager, mathematician, and technical advisor for large organizations, both public and private. Since 2014, I have been the Director of Risk and Safety, Asia-Pacific and Japan country Manager for Curtiss-Wright, Nuclear Division.

I became a Japanese resident in 2001.

I received a Smithsonian award for the development of innovative software systems in 1989, I am one of the founders of the Open PSA Initiative, a Core Group Member of the Resilience Engineering Group, a member of the Risk Technical Committee of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan, and I serve on the Technical Review Committee of the Japan Nuclear Safety Institute.

Woody EpsteinAppendix R SolutionsRizzo International, Inc.Director of International Business376-1 Koizumi, Sunforest D102Ageo-shi, Saitama-ken, 362-0063, Japan

T +81 (0)48-726-8543M +81 (0)80-4401-5417E woody@ars-corp.netE woody@woody.com

woodyep

In my life …Education:Harvurat Shalom Seminary, Rabbinical and Philosophical StudiesUniversity of Paris, Sorbonne (Paris IV) Studies in PhilosophyCase-Western Reserve University

BA Mathematics, BA Computer Science, BA Philosophy (1977)Case-Western Reserve Scholar

Case Institute of TechnologyMSc. Computer Science under a National Science Foundation Grant (1978-79)

Language Abilities:English, French, Japanese

Career description:2016 – present Appendix R Solutions, Director of International Business2014 – present B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences at UCLA, Research Affiliate2013 – present Nikkei Asian Review ; Columnist2014 – 2016 Curtiss-Wright, Director of Safety and Risk, Asia-Pacific2013 École polytechnique ; Visiting Researcher2011 – 2014 Lloyd’s Register Consulting, Japan, Country Manager of Risk Consulting2011 – 2012 Tokyo Institute of Technology, Visiting Scholar2000 - 2011 ABSG Consulting, Irvine CA & Tokyo, Japan Country Manager1998 - 2000 The Midland School; mathematics teacher1992 - 1998 Safety Factor Associates, Encinitas CA1987 - 1992 PLG, Inc., Newport Beach CA1983 - 1987 Management Analysis Company, San Diego CA1970 – 1981 Founding member of Kibbutz Gezer; head of farm machine shop

Age

Woody’s Career TrajectoryPr

opor

tion

Wine

Women

Song

Risk Assessment

Kibbutz Hulda –Farm Machinery

Shop

1980/1981

Personal Technical Catalogue1983 - Present

Energy and TransportationRisk, safety, and engineering services to the international energy and transportation sectors, with specialties in nuclear energy and aerospace.

Extreme RiskMathematical and analytical support managing the risks and consequences of explosion, extreme weather, terrorism, tsunami, and earthquakes.

Public SectorRisk analysis and risk communication for national, prefectural, and local governments.

Natural HazardsProbabilistic modeling, earthquake safety mathematics, probable maximum loss calculations, PRA integration

RiTSE: the Reactor Trip Simulation Environmentfor the Salem NPS

1985with Management Analysis Co.

NASA Challenger DisasterAfter the Challenger disaster, PLG was asked by the US Government to institute a risk assessment program with the space shuttle and to perform a pilot study to understand and quantify the chances that a fatal accident might again occur. Our study, finished in 1988, predicted that the chances of a loss of vehicle (LOV) accident was 1/75. The LOV accident rate at SST retirement was 1/64.5.

Lead programmer and mathematical modeling 1987with Pickard Lowe and Garrick

RISKMAN for Nuclear Safety

The mathematician and head programmer for RISKMAN, the most widely used probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) software for nuclear power and fuel facilities in Japan and Switzerland.

• Plant Accidents• Seismic, Flood, Fire• Terrorism• Radioactive Release• Emergency Response

What can go wrong, how likely is it, what are the consequences?Head programmer and mathematician 1987-2011with Pickard Lowe and Garrick

Probabilistic Schedule -All Critical Paths are Not Created Equal

>$20 Billion Construction Project

Yucca Mountain Waste Repository

• Over 7500 tasks• Significant external factors

• political risk• public opinion• unstable requirements

• Developed a probabilistic cost and schedule risk profile

Project Risk Management

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

P A230

P A164

S R 300

XP A09

S R 390

W P 015

S E 124

W P 050A

W P 050

Tas

k N

ame

L ike lih o o d o f b e in g in th e C ritica l P a th

P a rt o f P o in t V a lu e C rit ic a l P a th

P a rt o f P o in t V a lu e C rit ic a l P a th

P a rt o f P o in t V a lu e C rit ic a l P a th

PA23074%

PA16448%

XPA0935%

SR30039%

SR39020%

START PROJECT FINISH

WP0154%

WP00204%

WP050A2%

WP0502%

SE1242%

39%

35%

16%

4%

2%Point EstimateCritical Path

48%

32%

35%7%

35%

20%

20%

19%

4% 4%

2% 2%

2%

Other Paths

4%

Project/technical manager 1991with Pickard Lowe and Garrick

Software Safety Assessment of the Main Engines of the NASA Space Shuttle

At Safety Factor Associates, we created analysis methods to assess the risk of real time software by integrating the analysis techniques of software engineering, software reliability, software system safety, and classical risk analysis. We used this methodology for NASA to help understand the risk of failure of the main engines of the Space Shuttle.

Manager/lead analyst1995with Safety Factor Associates

Mathematics teacher at the Midland School, located in Los Olivos, California. Midland provides a unique college preparatory boarding school experience to a diverse student body. Through study and work it teaches the value of a lifetime of learning, self-reliance, simplicity, responsibility to community and the environment, and love for the outdoors.

The Midland School

1998 - 2000

Alternative Risk Transfer for Tokyo Disney Land

Catastrophe Bond Securitization

139º00’,36º20’ 140º30’,36º20’

139º20’,36º10’ 140º15’,36º10’

139º20’,34º55’ 140º15’,34º55’

139º,34º45’ 140º30’,34º45’

• Developed earthquake risk model

• Supported rating agencies in due diligence

• Drafted investment offering circular

• Conducted investor “road show” marketing

Project/technical manager 2000with EQE

Terrorist Risk - MIDAS-AT SoftwareUrban Terrain Model Output – Release of

Anthrax in Downtown Los Angeles

For over 20 years, MIDAS-AT software has been used in nuclear power, chemical industry, governments to manage, in real time, chemical, biological, and radiological attacks by terrorists.In 2001-2008, MIDAS-AT was installed and customized for the Japanese Ministry of Defense for use by the Ground Self Defense Force.

Project/technical manager 2001with ABS

VERN: The Virtual Emergency Response Network

VERN is used in Japan at the Sumitomo Harumi Building to provide real time disaster information to aid emergency response after seismic events.

Project/technical manager and software designer 2001with ABS

THE MARS EXPLORATION ROVER PRA for theJet Propulsion Laboratory

Alejo Engineering Main Contractor

Verification and validation of the PRA model 2002with ABS

Chemical Weapons DisposalAt the end of WW2, the Japanese Imperial Army abadoned more than 300,000 chemical weapons in Northern China. The weapons were buried in two large burial pits near Haeberling, The Japanese government must excavate and dispose of these weapons. From 2003-2007, ABSC quantified the risk to the public, the workers, and the environment for the Japanese government.

Project/technical manager and lead programmer/mathematician 2003 - 2007with ABS

MRJ70 / MRJ90Preliminary System Safety Assessment (PSSA)

In 2009 ABS performed the PSSA for Mitsubishi Aircraft (MJET). This PSSA will be used to qualify the safety of the new regional jet for use worldwide and for FAA Type certification.

Project/technical manager 2009with ABS

Mining Safety and Risk Assessment

In response to the San Jose Mine collapse in Chile during 2010, ABS did the risk assessment of the capsule used to bring the 33 miners to the surface.

Project/technical manager of the PRA 2010with ABS

HazardLite® Fragility Software

HazardLight® uses an EXCEL workbook to input the necessary information for fragility calculations of components over discreet ranges of peak ground accelerations, which are considered to be the initiating events. Each component's fragility information is also entered. To capture the full uncertainty inherent in our knowledge, families of both hazard curves and fragility curves are used. Fragility curves are modeled as lognormal probability distributions.

Lead designer 2011with LR Consulting

The IAEA Mission to OnagawaLloyd’s Register: Mission Leaders

from Concept to Report

Operations manager 2012with LR Consulting

The Natural Hazard Workbench is a 100% working software prototype to link earthquake data to strong motion data to actual success and failures of structures, systems, and components.

The main panel of the software also provides software for fragility calculations (Hazard Lite), data and Bayesian analysis (R-DAT), and easy online connections to K-Net in Japan and PEER for easy strong motion record downloads.

2013Inventor/Programmer

Lloyd’s Register Consulting’s Independent Investigation and Review for Active Faults

At the request of the Japan Atomic Power Company and the Tōhoku Electric Power Company, we assembled an expert team of geologists, seismologists, earthquake engineers, and risk assessment professionals. Our investigation included:

● field investigations of all excavation trenches ● examinations of the drilling cores● field investigations of the surrounding geographic areas ● interviews with utility geologists● aerial reconnaissance and review of 3-D maps ● reviews of NRA and utility reports● interviews with outside experts and researchers ● studies of earthquake sources

Project/technical manager 2013with LR Consulting

The United Nations has a special committee called the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, called UNSCEAR. UNSCEAR asked a small, independent film company, Gig House Films, to make a short film about radiation exposure and the people of Minami-soma, a small town near Fukushima Daiichi. In August, 2013, I acted as the operations manager for the filming and interviews for the mission. 2013

The US – Japan PRA Round Table

February 20-21, 2014

On February 20 and 21, 2014, the United States and Japan held a roundtable in Tokyo on PRA methodologies and their application to nuclear safety. The Roundtable was sponsored by the US Department of Energy and the Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry.

The keynote speakers were Hironori Nakanishi, METI director-general for energy and technological policy; Peter B. Lyons, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Office of Nuclear Energy, DOE, George Apostolakis, a member of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission; Toyoshi Fuketa, a commissioner at Japan's Nuclear Regulation Authority; Dr. B. J. Garrick, former chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board; and Dr. Shunsuke Kondo, Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission of Japan.

Woody Epstein, from LRC, was a member of the US delegation.

Named Distinguished Visiting Scholar of Risk Assessment at the Tokyo Institute of Technology working for Professor Ninokata in the Nuclear Reactor Research Laboratory.

Tokyo Institute of Technology

2011 - 2012

Named Visiting Researcher for the 2013 academic year working with Dr. Antoine Rauzy on mathematical problems in reliability engineering and system safety for risk analysis in industrial systems such as aircraft, nuclear power plants, offshore oil platforms, rail systems.

École polytechnique

2013

In 2016, was named as a research affiliate and the Institute’s representative in Asia.

B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences at UCLA

2011 - 2012

Nikkei Asian Review

2013 - Present

Regular Columnist since publication began on November 21, 2013.

Woody Epstein:Risk, Technology, and Society

Committees and Organizations

Notable Publications2004 - Present

contact:Woody Epstein

T +81 (0)48-726-8543M +81 (0)80-4401-5417E woody@ars-corp.netE woody.epstein@rizzointl.comE woody@woody.com

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