DHS

September 13, 2016

Madison, WI

Workforce Considerations in the New Economy

Dennis K. Winters Chief Economist

Department of Workforce Development

9.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1949 1954 1958 1960 1970 1975 1980 1982 1991 2001 2009

Real GDP Growth Sixteen Quarters into Recovery

2 2

How the Economy has Changed - Economic Recovery

Chart1

1949

1954

1958

1960

1970

1975

1980

1982

1991

2001

2009

16-month Growth

Real GDP Growth Sixteen Quarters into Recovery

0.2669396315

0.1259502692

0.2084424201

0.2268061331

0.1376517358

0.2155219702

0.1587358846

0.2227498381

0.1377355721

0.1311903787

0.0922274307

Sheet0

Gross domestic product

1q 19471932.6

2q 19471930.4

3q 19471928.4

4q 19471958.8

1q 19481987.6

2q 19482019.9

3q 19482031.2

4q 19482033.3

1q 19492005.6

2q 19491998.8

3q 19492020.816-month Growth

4q 19492002.7194926.7%

1q 19502082.5195412.6%

2q 19502145.5195820.8%

3q 19502228.2196022.7%

4q 19502271.2197013.8%

1q 19512302.3197521.6%

2q 19512342.3198015.9%

3q 19512390.5198222.3%

4q 19512395.8199113.8%

1q 19522421.1200113.1%

2q 19522426.220099.22%

3q 19522443.7

4q 19522523.9

1q 19532570.9

2q 19532591

3q 19532576.4

4q 19532537.326.7%

1q 19542525.6

2q 19542528.3

3q 19542556.9

4q 19542606.8

1q 19552681.2

2q 19552724.8

3q 19552761.5

4q 19552778.1

1q 19562767.4

2q 19562790.2

3q 19562787.9

4q 19562833.5

1q 19572851.8

2q 19572845.5

3q 19572873.2

4q 19572843.712.6%

1q 195827709.7%

2q 19582788.3

3q 19582852.7

4q 19582919.5

1q 19592973.8

2q 19593046.1

3q 19593040.2

4q 19593052.2

1q 19603120.2

2q 19603108.4

3q 19603116.1

4q 19603078.4

1q 19613099.3

2q 19613156.9

3q 19613209.6

4q 19613274.6

1q 19623333.6

2q 19623369.520.8%

3q 19623401.6

4q 19623414.8

1q 19633452.8

2q 19633497.8

3q 19633566.1

4q 19633591.5

1q 19643669.2

2q 19643712.9

3q 19643763.3

4q 19643776.622.7%

1q 19653869.8

2q 19653922.7

3q 19654002.4

4q 19654096.7

1q 19664197.9

2q 19664215.1

3q 19664245.2

4q 19664281.6

1q 19674320.9

2q 19674324.7

3q 19674362

4q 19674397.1

1q 19684486.4

2q 19684562.2

3q 19684595

4q 19684615.4

1q 19694687.1

2q 19694702.1

3q 19694731.5

4q 19694711

1q 19704702.8

2q 19704711.1

3q 19704752.8

4q 19704703.9

1q 19714829.9

2q 19714857.4

3q 19714895.3

4q 19714909.5

1q 19724997

2q 19725112.7

3q 19725159.8

4q 19725245.5

1q 19735374.7

2q 19735435.6

3q 19735406.1

4q 19735456.5

1q 19745411.2

2q 19745425.4

3q 19745372.8

4q 19745351.413.8%

1q 19755286.7

2q 19755327.4

3q 19755415.5

4q 19755488.5

1q 19765612.4

2q 19765654.8

3q 19765683.6

4q 19765726.2

1q 19775792.9

2q 19775906.6

3q 19776011.1

4q 19776011.7

1q 19786032.6

2q 19786267.2

3q 19786328.5

4q 19786413.3

1q 19796426.121.6%

2q 19796433.9

3q 19796480.1

4q 19796496.8

1q 19806517.9

2q 19806385.7

3q 19806376

4q 19806494.1

1q 19816628.6

2q 19816580.2

3q 19816655.7

4q 19816578

1q 19826468

2q 19826503.3

3q 19826479.8

4q 19826486.2

1q 19836571.1

2q 19836721.1

3q 19836852.7

4q 19836994

1q 19847132.9

2q 19847258.2

3q 19847329.6

4q 19847388.115.9%

1q 19857461.5

2q 19857529.9

3q 19857647

4q 19857704.4

1q 19867775.8

2q 19867811.5

3q 19867890.1

4q 1986793122.3%

1q 19877986.4

2q 19878076.1

3q 19878149.4

4q 19878283.8

1q 19888330.4

2q 19888440.5

3q 19888489.2

4q 19888601.6

1q 19898688.4

2q 19898756.7

3q 19898822.1

4q 19898840.7

1q 19908937.5

2q 19908972.1

3q 19908974.3

4q 19908897.8

1q 19918856.1

2q 19918924.9

3q 19918967.7

4q 19919006.8

1q 19929113.2

2q 19929213.7

3q 19929303.3

4q 19929396.5

1q 19939414

2q 19939469.9

3q 19939516.1

4q 19939643.1

1q 19949737.6

2q 19949870.7

3q 19949928.9

4q 199410041.6

1q 199510075.913.8%

2q 199510111.1

3q 199510197.7

4q 199510270.1

1q 199610337.4

2q 199610517.9

3q 199610615.2

4q 199610727.4

1q 199710809.1

2q 199710972.2

3q 199711112

4q 199711198.2

1q 199811309

2q 199811418.7

3q 199811568.1

4q 199811757.9

1q 199911867.8

2q 199911967.7

3q 199912120.1

4q 199912329.8

1q 200012365.2

2q 200012598.7

3q 200012614.8

4q 200012682

1q 200112645.7

2q 200112712.8

3q 200112674.1

4q 200112705.2

1q 200212824.6

2q 200212894.7

3q 200212956.7

4q 200212962.9

1q 200313028.6

2q 200313151.8

3q 200313374

4q 200313525.7

1q 200413606.6

2q 200413710.7

3q 200413831

4q 200413947.7

1q 200514100.2

2q 200514177.2

3q 200514292.9

4q 20051437213.1%

1q 200614546.4

2q 200614591.6

3q 200614604.4

4q 200614718.4

1q 200714728.1

2q 200714841.5

3q 200714941.5

4q 200714996.1

1q 200814895.4

2q 200814969.2

3q 200814895.1

4q 200814574.6

1q 200914372.1

2q 200914356.9

3q 200914402.516

4q 200914540.2

1q 201014597.7

2q 201014738

3q 201014839.3

4q 201014942.4

1q 201114894

2q 201115011.3

3q 201115062.1

4q 201115242.1

1q 201215381.6

2q 201215427.7

3q 201215534

4q 201215539.6

1q 201315583.9

2q 2013156819.22%

3q 2013

4q 2013

Sheet0

16-month Growth

16-month into Recovery Growth

Sheet1

Table 1.1.6. Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained Dollars

[Billions of chained (2009) dollars] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Last Revised on: August 29, 2013 - Next Release Date September 26, 2013

Note: Data appear on more than one sheet.

Line 2010201120122013

IIIIVIIIIIIIVIIIIIIIVIII

1Gross domestic product14839.314942.41489415011.315062.115242.115381.615427.71553415539.615583.915681

2Personal consumption expenditures10063.71016910221.310258.910311.910373.110447.810496.81054110584.81064410690.6

3Goods3319.13380.53402.83404.63415.234573495.83514.73546.73579.23611.93640.1

4Durable goods1093.81127.41142.311401154.41191.71219.71228.61253.41285.21303.51322.9

5Nondurable goods22262254.52262.62266.52263.822712283.62293.923032306.72322.22332.4

6Services6744.66788.56818.26854.16896.66915.56951.26981.46993.47004.77031.17049.7

7Gross private domestic investment2185.72166.12124.32196.12209.92368.22427.824182456.52441.82470.12529.2

8Fixed investment2060.82103.12100.72144.42219.82273.42320.82347.92363.52429.124202455.8

9Nonresidential1692.81728.11724.11765.318351877.31903.819251926.41971.919491970.1

10Structures364.4371.2339.8365.3388.9402.2409416422439.4407.9423.5

11Equipment766.2787.8810.6819.2858879.1896.9908.5899.5918.8922.5929.2

12Intellectual property products563570575.2582589.6597.6599.6602.3606.4614.9620.6619.2

13Residential368.1375.1376.7379.2384.9396.2417.2423437.3457.5471.2485.7

14Change in private inventories116.258.12242.9-1180.689.256.877.27.342.262.6

15Net exports of goods and services-504.9-457.5-456.5-438.3-433.9-454.7-439.2-435.3-436.5-412.1-422.3-422

16Exports1784.91837.71854.71876.91908.91921.71941.41959.81961.619671960.52001.2

17Goods1228.41266.412801291.61309.81334.31340.21357.31362.81352.61342.81375.6

18Services556.3571574.3585599.2586.6600.7601.9598614.2617.5625.4

19Imports2289.82295.22311.32315.22342.82376.42380.62395.123982379.12382.72423.2

20Goods1881.41889.21909.81906.51923.11954.41958.61970.71972.71955.119541987.8

21Services407.5404.9399.8407.4419420.9420.8423.2424.2423.1428.3434.9

22Government consumption expenditures and gross investment3103.53071.530123002.42983.22971.72961.32963.52988.82938.82907.42900.5

23Federal12851276.41241.612471236.41226.71219.11218.51244.61198.91172.81168

24National defense825.9818.6787.8800.8805.6784.2770.7768.8791.8745723.1722

25Nondefense459.1457.7453.7446.2430.8442.5448.3449.7452.8453.9449.8446.1

26State and local1818.51795.21770.51755.51746.917451742.217451744.31739.81734.31732.1

27Residual-2.3-5-10.1-3.1-13.3-9.1-7.5-11.6-11-22.2-22.5-22.7

Legend / Footnotes:

Note. Chained (2009) dollar series are calculated as the product of the chain-type quantity index and the 2009 current-dollar value of the corresponding series, divided by 100. Because the formula for the chain-type quantity indexes uses weights of more than one period, the corresponding chained-dollar estimates are usually not additive. The residual line is the difference between the first line and the sum of the most detailed lines.

3

How the Economy has Changed - Job Recovery

4

Workforce development and

economic development are

interrelated and interdependent.

Ed = ED

The New Economy

5

What will be the biggest

socio-economic policy challenge

in the next 20 years?

Projected Population Change 2015 - 2035

Source: WI Dept. of Administration Demographic Services Center and U.W.-Madison Applied Population Lab

Projected Population Change 2015 – 2025

People Aged 65 & Older

8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

Wisconsin Population and Labor Force

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

( x 1

000

)

POPULATION CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

Wisconsin’s Workforce Growth The New Economy

Chart2

19601960

19701970

19801980

19901990

20002000

20102010

20202020

20302030

POPULATION

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

( x 1000 )

Wisconsin Population and Labor Force

3967

1647

4417.8

1830

4602.3

2340

4895.5

2598.9

5310.4

2996.1

5751.5

3191.1

6110.9

3282.4

6415.9

3305.5

LF JOBS POP

Labor Force is annual average from LAUS

Nonfarm W&S is annual average from CES (Does not include self-employed and unpaid family wkrs)

Historic Population 1970, 1974-2006 are January 1 numbers and Projections are July 1 numbers. Data is from WI DOA

Historic Population 1954-1969, 1971-1973 are July 1 numbers. Data is from WI Dept of Health and Social Services (now Dept of Health and Family Services)

Historic Self-Employed/Unpaid Family/Private Household Workers for 1980, 1990, and 2000 are from various rounds of Wisconsin Projections

Projected LF, Nonfarm W&S, and Self-Emp/Unpaid Family/Private Household Wkrs are from Karin Wells, WI DWD OEA

All numbers are in thousands

Last Updated January 29, 2007

YEARCIVILIAN LABOR FORCENONFARM WAGE & SALARYPOPULATIONLF-JobsLF/JobsPop/JobsSELF-EMP/UNPAID FAMILY/PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD WKRSTOTAL NONFARM

19541,557.91,069.63,559.0488.31.463.33

19551,575.11,108.13,666.0467.01.423.31

19561,605.41,146.93,740.0458.51.403.26

19571,603.51,152.03,802.0451.51.393.30

19581,602.71,114.93,863.0487.81.443.46

19591,619.71,166.03,915.0453.71.393.36

19601,647.01,191.93,967.0455.11.383.33

19611,644.61,179.94,014.0464.71.393.40

19621,654.01,207.24,043.0446.81.373.35

19631,676.21,233.54,086.0442.71.363.31

19641,699.31,270.94,151.0428.41.343.27

19651,741.51,331.74,212.0409.81.313.16

19661,782.81,394.14,262.0388.71.283.06

19671,812.81,430.54,303.0382.31.273.01

19681,853.91,472.14,332.0381.81.262.94

19691,903.41,525.14,381.0378.31.252.87

19701,830.01,530.44,417.8299.61.202.89

19711,844.01,525.44,473.0318.61.212.93

19721,982.01,580.84,526.0401.21.252.86

19732,030.01,660.54,533.3369.51.222.73

19742,059.01,703.44,586.1355.61.212.69

19752,098.01,676.84,581.7421.21.252.73

19762,148.01,725.94,623.4422.11.242.68

19772,181.01,798.94,627.4382.11.212.57

19782,263.01,887.04,652.8376.01.202.47

19792,331.01,960.24,688.3370.81.192.39

19802,340.01,938.14,602.3401.91.212.37180.02,118.1

19812,370.01,923.24,730.9446.81.232.46

19822,439.01,866.84,756.3572.21.312.55

19832,425.01,864.64,777.9560.41.302.56

19842,389.01,949.24,774.4439.81.232.45

19852,373.01,983.14,779.0389.91.202.41

19862,403.02,023.94,789.1379.11.192.37

19872,493.02,089.64,794.8403.41.192.29

19882,570.02,168.54,815.5401.51.192.22

19892,611.02,236.44,863.2374.61.172.17

19902,598.92,291.54,895.5307.41.132.14172.22,463.7

19912,640.12,302.04,891.8338.11.152.13

19922,695.12,357.94,968.2337.21.142.11

19932,752.82,412.75,021.0340.11.142.08

19942,835.22,490.85,061.5344.41.142.03

19952,881.32,558.55,101.6322.81.131.99

19962,921.02,600.55,143.0320.51.121.98

19972,958.92,655.75,192.3303.21.111.96

19982,967.12,718.05,234.4249.11.091.93

19992,970.02,784.05,274.8186.01.071.89

20002,996.12,833.85,310.4162.31.061.87177.63,011.4

20013,031.02,813.95,400.4217.11.081.92

20023,036.52,782.45,453.9254.11.091.96

20033,055.72,775.35,490.7280.41.101.98

20043,040.92,803.25,533.0237.71.081.97

20053,041.52,839.65,580.8201.91.071.97

20063,082.32,868.75,617.7213.61.071.96

20103,191.13,017.35,751.5173.81.061.91181.03,198.3

20155,931.4

20203,282.43,096.66,110.9185.81.061.97181.03,277.6

20256,274.9

20303,305.53,118.46,415.9187.11.062.06181.03,299.4

2020-2030 jobs are projected to grow at the same rate as the labor force.

In the data above the 2010 projection is revised downward based on the compound annual growth rate calculated from the 2004-2014 projections

The 2010 Projection above is the number that was given to Angela Russell for the Governor's Report.

As a result of the lower 2010 projection, 2020 and 2030 are also revised downward.

Data used in original slide showing pop, lf, and job changes.

labor forcepopulationall nonfarm jobs (includes se/uf/phh)

19802,340,0004,705,7672,118,100

19902,598,8984,891,7692,463,730

20002,935,0005,363,6753,011,380

20103,191,0815,751,4703,301,160

20203,282,4346,110,8783,395,664

20303,305,5126,415,9233,419,538

Graphs

first Karin data

labor forcepopulationall nonfarm jobs (includes se/uf/phh)

19802,340,0004,705,7672,118,100

19902,598,8984,891,7692,463,730

20002,935,0005,363,6753,011,380

20103,191,0815,751,4703,301,160

20203,282,4346,110,8783,395,664

20303,305,5126,415,9233,419,538

Revised Karin Data

labor forcepopulationall nonfarm jobs (includes se/uf/phh)

19802,340,0004,705,7672,118,100

19902,598,8984,891,7692,463,730

20002,935,0005,363,6753,011,380

20103,191,0815,751,4703,198,300

20203,282,4346,110,8783,277,600

20303,305,5126,415,9233,299,400

POPULATIONCIVILIAN LABOR FORCENONFARM WAGE & SALARY

19603,967.001,647.001,191.90

19704,417.801,830.001,530.40

19804,602.302,340.001,938.10

19904,895.502,598.902,291.50

20005,310.402,996.102,833.80

20105,751.503,191.103,017.30

20206,110.903,282.403,096.60

20306,415.903,305.503,118.40

Graphs

labor force

all nonfarm jobs (includes se/uf/phh)

Revised Data

Sheet3

POPULATION

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

( x 1000 )

Wisconsin Population and Labor Force

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

NONFARM WAGE & SALARY

( x 1000 )

Wisconsin's Labor Force and Job Levels

9 Source: Office of Economic Advisors

Nursing Workforce in Wisconsin The New Economy

Chart1

< 25

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

Frequency

Wisconsin Registered Nurses by Age

1175

7703

9267

8265

8458

7995

10463

11303

9742

4675

1576

568

Age_Range

age_rangeFrequencyPercentCumulative FreqCumulative Percent

< 2511751.4577039.49

25-2977039.491697020.9

30-34926711.412523531.08

35-39826510.183369341.5

40-44845810.424168851.35

45-4979959.855215164.23

50-541046312.896345478.15

55-591130313.927319690.15

60-649742127787195.91

65-6946755.767944797.85

70-7415761.948001598.55

75+5680.781190100

Age_Range

Frequency

Wisconsin Registered Nurses by Age

Sheet2

Sheet3

Workforce Replacement Needs

Recent Beige Book noted that firms had difficulties

filling positions in:

IT, engineering, legal, health-care services, management, skilled manufacturing, building trades, and transportation and warehousing

Source: Federal Reserve Bank

“My family's here and I love it here, but going somewhere that fits my recreational interests would be better for me,” said Limbach. Limbach has a degree in geology and will locate where there are suitable jobs, but as a climber, she'd like to be around mountains.

-- Wisconsin Public Radio, Updated: Tuesday, July 22, 2014, 3:21pm, By Shamane Mills My emphasis added

New Motivations The New Economy

12

What is another workforce challenge

faced by businesses in this new Economy?

The New Economy

New Economy New Skills

"The days are over when you could walk into a paper mill with a high school diploma and run

one of the machines."

Patrick Schillinger, former Wisconsin Paper Council President, Center will teach paper-industry technology

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, JS Online, October 21, 2004.

New Economy Need for Creativity and Innovation

“Today in most fields I know, the struggle is about creativity and innovation. There is no script.”

Robert B. Shapiro Former CEO & Chairman Monsanto Corporation

15

Source: Autor, Levy and Murnane, 2003

Nonroutine manual

Routine cognitive

Routine manual

Nonroutine analytical

Nonroutine interactive

Source: K-12 Education and Economic Summit presentation by Alan B. Krueger, Princeton University

* Based on the Dictionary of Occupational Titles

Workplace Requirements Changes in Skills Used at Work

Job Growth in Health Care Industries

Job growth from 2005-2015 exceeded 50% for community care and home health industries, while nursing care industries declined 10% over the period

Health Care Industry Percent Growth

*This includes all ownerships (government and private) and data not covered by QCEW

Source: Department of Workforce Development, Office of Economic Advisors (OEA), July 2016

Health Care Occupations Percent Growth

Source: Department of Workforce Development, Office of Economic Advisors (OEA), July 2016

Health Care Annual Job Openings

Source: Department of Workforce Development, Office of Economic Advisors (OEA), July 2016

Health Care Median Wage

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics (OES), May 2015

Questions?

Dennis Winters Chief Economist 608-267-3262

Dennis.Winters@dwd.wisconsin.gov http://dwd.wisconsin.gov

http://www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/

Slide Number 1Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21