workforce development and labor trends in new jersey · edward j. bloustein school of planning and...

Workforce Development and Labor Trends in New Jersey

Carl Van Horn, Ph.D. Distinguished Professor of Public Policy and Director

John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development

Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy

Rutgers University

John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development 2

New Jersey Employment (2000-2017)

Source: BLS CPS, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Une

mpl

oym

ent

Rate

Tota

l New

Jer

seya

ns

Year

NJ Number Employed NJ Number Unemployed NJ Unemployment Rate US Unemployment Rate


Unemployment tends to last longer for those out of work in New Jersey

31.9% 26.9% 26.1%

33.1% 28.9%

24.4%

15.0% 16.1% 17.6%

14.7% 14.0%

18.5%

26.6% 30.1% 29.6% 25.0% 29.6% 26.9%

26.6% 26.9% 27.5% 27.2% 27.6% 30.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

NJ CT MA MD NY PA

Perc

ent

of a

ll un

empl

oyed

Unemployed by Duration of Unemployment (2017 preliminary figures)

27 wks+ 15-26 wks 5-14 wks LT 5 wks



Currently, the mean duration of unemployment for those in New Jersey is around 36 weeks

4

15.9

28.1

43.7

35.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017p

Wee

ks U

nem

ploy

ed

Year

Mean Duration of Unemployment in New Jersey (Annual Averages 2000-2017)



U-6

U-5 U-3

5

The official unemployment rate does not capture all individuals looking for work

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

New

JerseyCivilianLaborForce

InvoluntaryPart-Time

MarginallyAIached

Unemployed(officialrate)

U-3: total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (definition for the official unemployment rate)

U-4: U-3 + discouraged workers U-5: U-3 + marginally attached workers U-6: U-5 + Persons employed part-time for economic reasons

Alternate Measures of Unemployment in New Jersey (2003-2017)



The unemployment rate for black New Jerseyans was nearly double that of white residents aged 25 to 34

6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

White Black Asian Hispanic White Black Asian Hispanic White Black Asian Hispanic White Black Asian Hispanic

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate,

201

6

Unemployment Rate by race and age, NJ, 2016

Sample size for 55-64 age group, Asian was too small for reliable estimate

Source: BLS CPS


Nationally, inflation tends to outpace annual median wage changes

7

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

Annual Infation and Wage Change, 2009-2017, US

Annual Inflation Change

Annual Median Wage Change (Inflation Adjusted)

*Inflation change estimate for 2017 is based on the change in the CPI from Q3 2016 to Q3 2017

Source: BLS Median Weekly Earnings, Consumer Price Index data


The percentage of people in the labor force—those who are either already working or looking for work—has fallen to the lowest level in three decades

8

Source: BLS CPS

63.10%

61.58% 62.84%

55%

57%

59%

61%

63%

65%

67%

69%

71%

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Labor Force Participation Rate for NJ & US (1976-2017)

NJ LFPR US LFPR


Half of all non-Hispanic white New Jersey residents attain an Associate’s degree or higher, compared to 30% of black residents, and less than 25% of

Hispanic residents

913,778

315,517

241,633

599,834

182,751

179,782 247,359

61,430

58,433 975,284

128,512 120,479

594,914

58,339 64,065

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

NON HISPANIC WHITE HISPANIC BLACK*

Educational Attainment by Race, New Jersey 2016

Graduate or professional degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Some college, no degree

GED or alternative credential

Regular high school diploma

9th to 12th grade, no diploma

Less than 9th grade

* Black includes some Hispanics

Source: ACS 2016 1-year estimates


Improvements in Educational attainment, but gaps remain

10

Between 2006 and 2016, total population over 25 years age is estimated to have gone up by 5% -  Population with no

schooling completed went up by 48%

-  Population with some college (no degree) or less went down by 5%

-  Population with associate’s degree or higher went up by 20%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Percen

tagechangeinpop

ulaQ

on2006-16

ChangebyEducaQonalaIainment,NewJersey,2006-16

Source: ACS 2006 and 2016 1 year estimates


What are the new realities of the American labor market?

•  Fewer stable and permanent jobs;

•  Rising expectation that the workforce is better prepared before they begin working; and

•  Increasingly difficult for students and workers - and labor market experts - to predict where specific jobs will be in 5, 10, or 20 years.

11


What are the implications for Education, Education Leaders, and Policy Makers?

•  More pressure on schools and colleges to deliver better prepared graduates;

•  Graduates increasingly accepting jobs previously held by graduates of lower-level degrees; and

•  Proliferation of degree programs and certificates.

12


College graduation rates in New Jersey remain lower for minority students

13

24.7

65.4

25.7

78.1

32.2

70.7

23.1

63.8

20.7

54.2

14.6

49.1

24.3

45.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Graduation rate 2 year (cohort 2013) Graduation Rate 4 year (cohort 2010)

Graduation rates for New Jersey’s two-year (cohort 2013) and four-year (cohort 2010) institutions

Tota

l

Asi

an

Whi

te

Pac

Isla

nd

His

pani

c

Bla

ck

Am

Indi

an

Tota

l

Asi

an

Whi

te

Pac

Isla

nd

His

pani

c

Bla

ck

Am

Indi

an

Source: US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics


New Jersey remains in the top five states with the highest average student loan balance

14

Source: Experian State of Student Loan Debt in 2017


How are employers responding?

•  Employers regularly report that recent high school and college graduates are not adequately prepared for labor market success.

•  Employers increasingly require more educational

credentials.

15


What should educators and policy makers do?

•  New Jersey must make an effort to increase high school and college completion rates.

•  Public workforce development programs must do a better job of serving the needs of unemployed job seekers.

•  New Jersey’s education and workforce programs must provide better services to those who need the most help.

•  Education and training programs must be transformed by deploying more cost-effective strategies and innovative technology.

16


Workforce Development Initiatives

!  For those eligible, assistance should be more closely tied to participation in training and other workforce-related activities.!

!  More active interventions will help these workers find employment more quickly and avoid the consequences of long-term unemployment.

Reform UI System

Increase On-the-job Training

Expand Internet Based

Tools

Increase Data Transparency for Decision-

making



!  New Jersey workforce development programs should allocate more to “on-the-job” programs and training for industry-certified credentials.

!  Public funding of specific community-college based training programs for the unemployed should be made available when the curriculum leads to the attainment of an industry-supported credential.

Reform UI System



Tools


making



!  The state should expand and enrich high-quality, Internet-based software platforms to deliver workforce development and reemployment services.

!  Job seekers and students need timely access to ongoing career management supports, industry-recognized training programs, and accurate information about skill needs and occupational requirements.

Reform UI System



Tools


making



!  New Jersey state government should integrate and analyze information to inform citizens and policymakers about the quality, cost, and benefits of education and workforce training programs.

!  The New Jersey Education to Earnings Data System (NJEEDS), housed at Rutgers University, will serve as a data resource to provide this critical information.

Reform UI System



Tools


making


Contact Information

For more information, please contact: Carl Van Horn, Ph.D.

Distinguished Professor of Public Policy and Director John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development

Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy Rutgers University

Phone: (732) 932-1153 Email: [email protected]

21


The unemployment rate varies throughout the state

New Jersey Unemployment (February 2018)

22

Source: BLS CPS, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Map


Alternate Measures of Unemployment

23


5.9

9.5

4.6

6.0

9.6

4.4

9

16

9.2

10.1

16.7

8.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Perc

ent

of N

onin

stitu

tiona

lized

Civ

ilian

Pop

ulat

ion

Unemployment Measures (U-3 and U-6 for US and NJ, 2003-2016)

U3 NJ U3 US U6 NJ U6 US


Educational Attainment in NJ

24

480,450 175,734 289,469 319,8941,294,789

658,997

1,706,073 678,776 1,046,470 1,156,496

3,574,814 3,132,444

1,024,289 415,150 779,195734,632

2,150,858

1,431,231

400,332 186,288 268,485363,356

1,191,816

730,217

1,460,518 541,369 860,4911,124,295

2,749,6191,676,971

670,786 297,488 528,502 629,3511,521,940

765,331

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

New Jersey Connecticut Maryland Massachusetts New York Pennsylvania

Educational Attainment for population 25 years and over, 2016 estimates

Doctorate degree

Professional school degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Some College, no degree

High school graduate (includes equivalency)

12th grade, no diploma

Less than 12th grade

No schooling completed

Source:NCES

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