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Workforce Planning in an Uncertain Future: Preparing for the Good, the Bad, and the WeirdRobin Boomer

AHRI National Convention & ExhibitionSeptember 2019 / Brisbane, Australia

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Uncertainty About the Future of Work Rises

Will Robots Take My Job?

Enter your job

Even Robots to Replace HR Staff

“I expect AI to

change 100% of jobs

within the next 5 to

10 years.”

Ginni Rometty, CEO, IBM


“If we don’t get our approach to

the future of work right, we will

not be able to attract or retain

the talent we need; it will cripple

our organization.”

— CHRO, Technology Company


Few Organizations Are Prepared

n = 44

Source: 2019 Gartner HR Future Effectiveness Survey

9% of CHROs agree that their organization

is prepared for the Future of Work


Focusing on Different Challenges

AI Replacing

Jobs



Gig



Gen Z +

Boomers


Access

to Data

AI Ethics

Expanding

Diversity

Robo Bosses

Digital Skills

Development

Widen Your Lens

Gig

AI Replacing

Jobs

Gen Z +

Boomers


How Can HR Reimagine

Work to Drive Performance?



Shape the Future Today

Five Areas for a Widened Lens

Ethics ManagersInformationSkills Jobs


How can we

collect data

ethically?


Plans to Increase Data and Analytics Resources

Staff Costs TechnologyTraining

75%

Top Three

Line Items:

of HR leaders plan to increase

spend on talent analytics in 2019


Identifying Data Collection Techniques to Pursue

Least Experimental

Most Experimental

Employee

Microchipping

Sociometric

Badging

Data

Scraping

Engagement

Surveys

Pulse

Surveys

Employee

Location Data

Internal

Messaging Transcripts

Facial

Monitoring


GDPRGeneral Data Protection Regulation

HITECHHealth Information Technology

for Economic and Clinical HealthAct

PIPEDAPersonal Information Protection

and Electronic DocumentsAct

Complying With Data Privacy Concerns

CDRConsumer Data Right

53+ Countries


No One Creepy Line for Every Organization

Marital StatusSocial

Media Activity

Personal

Life DetailsHome

AddressHobbies

Number of

Dependents

Login

Attempts

Browsing

History

Activity

MonitoringLocationKey Strokes

Productivity Harassment

ReportsWork MetricsEngagement

Scores

Performance

Reviews


Employee AI Is Everywhere


Use of Algorithms to Improve Hiring

HQ

HR

Postal CodeA

Postal Code B

Postal Code C

Postal Code D

Postal Code E

Algorithms Can Create Bias


Consider These Scenarios


Scrape social media

to identify sentiment

#MeToo #OurBrand

So upset! The project

manager was known

around the office for this

inappropriate behavior!

ALERT


Use wearables

to measure

employee health

ALERT

Heart rate elevated

without activity


How can we

collect data

ethically?


How can we

collect data

ethically?

How do we

ethically

use the data

we collect?


CEO

Marketing Sales Finance HR ITBusiness

Units

AI Implemented Throughout the Business

RPAFraud

Analysis

Virtual

Personal

Assistants

Smart

Robotics

Resume

Screening

Market

Segmentation

Chatbots


Consider This Scenario


Consider This ScenarioCrash Test Dummies Almost Exclusively Male


No one is better positioned than HR to

lead AI ethics for the organization.


HR Must: Drive an Ethical AI and Analytics Strategy

Lead your

organization

toward an AI

ethics strategy

Train leaders

on real-world

employee

data misuse

Build roles

focused on

data and AI

decision ethics


How do we develop

new digital skills in

our employees?


CHROs Prioritize Building Critical Skills

73% CHROs say

building employee-critical

skills and competencies

are top priorities

n = 843

Source: 2019 Gartner Agenda Poll.


Skills Need Changing Rapidly

of job postings had their required

skills change in the last five years59%

Source: Gartner TalenNeuron.


On-the-Job Training Is Top Learning Method

n = 303

Source: Gartner 2019 Learning Innovations Survey

82% of organizations leverage on-the-job training

for employee learning and skill development


47%of learning

and development

spending will

be wasted.

67%of on-the-job

learning opportunities

can be automated.

AI Eliminates Opportunities for On-the-Job Learning

n = 3,778 employees

Source: 2019 Gartner Reimagine HR Survey

67%of employees repeat

the same tasks at

least daily.


“The death of repetition worries our

organization because it affects our

frontline staff and our robust

middle-management staff.”

Future of Work Leader at Insurance Company


How do we

develop new

digital skills in

our employees?


How do we

develop new

digital skills in

our employees?

How do we develop all

skills as AI eliminates

learning

opportunities?


HR Must: AI-Proof Your Development Strategy

Audit existing

learning strategies

for dependence

on on-the-job

learning

Reimagine

career tracks

based on

rapid mastery

and skill

development

Incorporate

your reskilling

strategy into your

employer branding

to differentiate


How do we control

our narrative with so

much widely

available

information?


Candidates Are Swimming in Data


Candidates Feel Better Informed Than Employees

59%

Candidates

Feel Informed

n = 6,368 new hires

Source: Gartner 2019 Candidate Survey.

Employees Feel

Informed

n = 4,651 employees

Source: Gartner 2019 Modern Employee Experience Workforce Survey.

40%



Candidates

in the Know,

Employees

in the Dark

Employees Want Greater Transparency

of employees think employers

should increase transparency

n = 3,978

Source: 2019 Gartner ReimagineHR Employee Survey.


71%


Campus Hires Accustomed to Transparency

R A T E M Y P R O F E S S O R S

Vendors Offer Transparency to Your Employees

“My manager has no trust

on anyone in the team. He

needs status updates

every day. He’s focused on

quantity compared to

innovation and quality. Is

this normal in [Org.]?”


Aggressive Internal Transparency

Manager Reviews

NameCoaching

Quality

Task

Management

Strategic

PerspectiveTeam Leadership

Bell, G. B– C+ A– B

Eze, J. A B– A A–

Garcia, A. B+ B B+ C+

Khan, L. B A– B– C+

Ohashi, S. A– A A B–

Taylor, C. C+ B+ B+ B


Aggressive Internal Transparency

Sample Companies with Open Salaries


How do we control

our narrative with

so much widely

available

information?


How do we meet

employees’ growing

expectations for

information

transparency?

How do we control

our narrative with

so much widely

available

information?


HR Must: Build an Internal Transparency Strategy

Develop a transparency

strategy that goes a step farther than you think your culture would allow

Train your managers on

how to operate with a shifting informational

balanceof power

Collaborate across functions

on dataaccess and

interoperability


How do we develop

our managers for the

future of work?


Heavy Investment in Manager Training

$0

$3,000

Cumulative Investment in Manager Training per Manager Over 10 Years

$6,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: Gartner analysis.



$0

$3,000


$6,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$471




$0

$3,000


$6,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$5,086



0%

50%

100%

$0

$3,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Investment in Manager Training Not Paying Off

Source: Gartner analysis; 2010-2019 Gartner Global Labor Market Survey.

Effectiveness Remains Flat


$6,000


How do we

develop our

managers for the

future of work?


How do we

develop our

managers for the

future of work?

How is technology

changing what

it means to be

a manager?


The Manager Role Is About to Change

Monday

9 AM Coaching Ana

10 AM Strategy Meeting

11AM Joe’s Teachback with Team

12 PM LUNCH BREAK

1 PM Project Status Meeting

2 PM Mei’s Review

3 PM Setup New Hire

4 PM Approve Expenses

n = 4,821 managers.

Source: 2017 CEB Manager Effectiveness Survey.



Monday

9AM Coaching Ana

10AM Strategy Meeting

11AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM Setup New Hire

4 PM

Joe’s Teachback with Team

LUNCH BREAK

Expense Management SystemApprove Expenses

Project Status Meeting

Mei’s Review

n = 4,821 managers.




Algorithmic Management Platform

Monday

9AM Coaching Ana


11AM

12 PM

Project Status Meeting1 PM

2 PM Mei’s Review

3 PM Setup New Hire

4 PM


Automated Project Status Dashboard

LUNCH BREAK

Expense Management SystemApprove Expenses

n = 4,821 managers.




Automated Project Status Dashboard

Algorithmic Management Platform

Onboarding Automation

Expense Management System

Monday

9AM Coaching Ana


11AM

12 PM

Project Status Meeting1 PM

2 PM Mei’s Review

3 PM Setup New Hire

4 PM Approve Expenses


LUNCH BREAK

n = 4,821 managers.




Monday

9 AM Coaching Ana Real-Time Chatbot Interventions

10 AM Strategy Meeting

11AM Joe’s Teachback with Team

12 PM LUNCH BREAK

1 PM Project Status Meeting Automated Project Status Dashboard

2 PM Mei’s Review Algorithmic Management Platform

3 PM Setup New Hire Onboarding Automation

4 PM Approve Expenses Expense Management System

n = 4,821 managers.




69% of what a manager currently does will be automated by 2024.

Status Quo Will Cause Managers to Get Worse

$5,000


$10,000

$0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: Gartner analysis; 2010-2019 Gartner Global Labor Market Survey.

100%

50%

0%

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Effectiveness Plummets


From Manager To?

Career Coach?


From Manager To?

Career Coach?

Therapist?


From Manager To?

Career Coach?

Therapist?

Lunch Buddy?


From Manager To?

What will

they become?


From Manager To?

How many will

we need?


HR Must: Overhaul the Manager Role for a New Era

Determine which

management

tasks should

be automated

Establish new

expectations

for managers

Design

career paths

for growth with

fewer management

opportunities


How is AI going to

affect jobs?


AI Technology Deployment Is Widespread

n = 2,043.

Source: 2018 Gartner AI Survey

Banking and Investment

Utilities

Insurance

Government Retail

HealthcareNatural

Resources

Manufacturing

three years

91% of

organizations

have already or

plan to deploy AI

within the next

three years


Focus on AI’s Impact on Jobs

of CHROs expect

AI to replace jobs

at their organization

within the next

three years

n = 44.

70%

Source: 2019 Gartner HR Future Effectiveness Survey



Technology

Can Remove

Mobility

Limitations

Dawn Ver cafe

in Japan uses robot

waiters controlled

remotely by

paralyzed employees.


Technology

Can Enable

Neuro-Diverse

Candidates

JPMorgan Chase,

Microsoft, DXC

Technology host virtual

reality career fairs to

create comfortable and

accessible environments

for neuro-diverse

candidates.


Technology

Can Remove

Visual

Limitations

Enterprise Rent-A-Car

developed software to

integrate its reservations

system with their blind

employees’ braille-

reader technology.

How is AI going

to affect jobs?


How is AI going

to affect jobs?

How can we use

AI to increase

access to jobs?



We can build a

better society,

and better

companies, by

enabling new

entrants to the

labor market.


HR Must: Enable a Rapidly Expanding Talent Pool

Implement technology that

will create an enabling work

environment for your target new

talent pools

Audit your internal systems and practices for potential barriers

to successfor new

talent pools

Adapt your compensation

packages and role designs to ease access for new

entrants intothe labor market

How can we use AI to increase access to jobs?Jobs

Managers

Information

How do we develop all skills as AI eliminates

learning opportunities?

How do we meet employee’s expectations for

information transparency?

How is technology changing what it means

to be a manager?

Skills

Ethics How do we ethically use the data we collect?

Shifting Your Focus



Humans are called to

be architects of the

future, not its victims.— Buckminster Fuller


What future will you architect for

your organization?