workshop: can climate change policies be fair?royal statistical society, july 5th 2012 practices by...
TRANSCRIPT
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Practices by ProxyClimate, Consumption and Water
(and troubles with data...)
Dr Ben AndersonUniversity of Essex
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Contents Why?
Water 'practices' How?
Proxies What?
Models Problems?
Data Where next?
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Why: Water is (going to be) a problem Energy problems:
Carbon cost of `clean' water
The water industry currently accounts for 5 million tonnes
of carbon dioxide emissions per Year - almost one per cent of UK greenhouse gas emissions.
Environment Agency 2009
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Why: Water is (going to be) a problem Energy problems:
Carbon cost of `clean' water
Supply problems Locally/regionally scarce Climate change?
Demand problems 50% used by households Poorly understood Climate change?
With no 'behaviour' change and no flow controls
Source: DEFRA, 2011
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
What do we want to know? Practices in which water is implicated
Diversityhabituation, routine,
practical consciousness,tacit knowledge,
traditionPerformance often
neither fully conscious
nor reflectiveAlan Warde, 2005
Why people don’t do what they ‘should’ -
Jim Skea, 2011
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
What do we want to know? Practices in which water is implicated
Diversity Proxies for practices?
'Traces' of water Relationship with climate?
Mediation, adaptation Relationship to demand?
From practices to litresImage: Eric Shipton, 1951
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Conceptual Framework
Water demand = f(price + demographics + practices + attitudes) + error
Policy levers & Interventions
habituation, routine, neither conscious nor reflective
RegulationMarket Supply ?? ??
EducationInformationPersuasion
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Conceptual Framework
Water demand = f(price + demographics + practices + attitudes) + error
Policy levers & Interventions
habituation, routine, neither conscious nor reflective
RegulationMarket Supply ?? ??
EducationInformationPersuasion
Climate change
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
How: Expenditures as Proxies Ideal Proxy (LCF 2002-2010)
water (l/day)
Attitudes
Demographics
Price
Practices
£ water/week
AttitudesAttitudes
Demographics
PricePrice
£/week
Shampoo,soapdetergents
Garden products
Fruit & Veg
Tea, coffee, juices
RegionalClimate/Weather
linked to survey quarter
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
How: Modelling Approach 2005 prices Selection:
Metered only Combined water & sewerage
Seasonal models
All households
39121
Metered 11119
Separate water & sewerage
-1387
Remaining 9732
Winter (Dec – Feb) Spring (Mar – May) Summer (Jun – Aug) Autumn (Sep – Nov)02468
101214161820
£4.70£4.72£4.74£4.76£4.78£4.80£4.82£4.84£4.86£4.88£4.90
Water £/week Mean rainfall (cm)
Mean number raindays Mean sunshine hours (/10)
Mean temperature
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
What: Summary Results
Region, year, income
Accommodation, number of rooms, tenure
N cars, n earners, HRP employment, composition
Age distributions, number of persons
Long-term illness, age of HRP, gender of HRP, ethnicity of HRP
Washing machine/dishwasher
Practices
Weather (contemporary interaction)
Weather (3 year anomly interaction)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
change in rsq r sq
Climate/Weather
Practices
Traces of Practices?
Linear regression (OLS), Wald Table, n = 11,192, final r sq = 27%
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
What: Practice 'effects'
Washing machine
Dishwasher
Potatoes
Leaf & stem vegetables
Rice
Pasta
Tea
Coffee
Fruit juices (incl squash)
Vegetable juices
Mineral/spring water
Soap/shower gel
Laundry/Laundrettes
Detergents/washing powder
Kitchen gloves/cloths
Garden tools
Lawn mowers
Plants, flowers, seeds
-0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7
b (coefficient)
Traces of Practices
?
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
What: Weather 'interaction effects'Proxy Spring Summer
Main effect
Interaction Main effect Interaction
Leaf & stem vegetables 0.069 0.905 (unusually hot)
Detergents/washing powder
0.066 -0.087 (number of rain days)
plants, flowers, seeds, fertilisers, insecticides
N/s 0.018 (temperature)
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
So... The 'proxies for practices' approach has value But
Garden/soils etc Period of water use? Expenditures as proxies?
High spend != high volume Recall/response 'error'? Zeros!
What to do?
72% reported no spend on soaps, shower gels etc in 2010!
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Approaches to 'validation' Link 'real' data Model response data Aggregate and compare with other sources
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Linking 'water' Practice based survey of water 'habits'
1800 respondents across South & East England Linked metering data for survey respondents
For those who agreed to linkage And whose water company also agreed (!)
Metered: 769 42%
Agreed to linkage: 282 15%
Agreed to linkage and metered
132 7%
10% didn't know
To date we only have 64 records
To date we only have 32 records
Of whom 4 are metered who said they weren't!
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Linking 'water': What we hope for...
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Linking 'water': What we get...
21 metered respondents who agreed to data linkage AND estimated monthly water bill
To be refreshed when more data arrives
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Aggregating 'electricity' Ia Survey:
LCF 2010 DECC
Sub-regional electricity statistics (aggregated LSOAs)
East Midlands
Eastern
Greater London
North East
South East
South West
Wales
West Midlands
Yorkshire and the Humber
Total
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Mean £ per week (LCF, 2010)Mean £ per week (DECC 2010, assume 12p per kwh)
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Aggregating 'electricity' Ib
East Midlands
Eastern
Greater London
North East
South East
South West
Wales
West Midlands
Yorkshire and the Humber
Total
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Mean £ per week (EFS, 2010)Mean £ per week (DECC 2010, assume 12p per kwh)
7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 100
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
R² = 0.3642018973
Mean £ per week (LCF, 2010)
Me
an
£ p
er w
ee
k (D
EC
C,
20
10
, as
sum
es
12
p p
er
kwh
)
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Aggregating 'electricity' IIa Ideally
Geo-referenced clusters of LCF households Compare to DECC LSOA data
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Aggregating 'electricity' IIa Ideally
Geo-referenced clusters of LCF households Compare to DECC LSOA data
So: Small Area Estimation
East of England LSOA level electricity demand estimates Census 2001 & LCF 2010
Compare to DECC LSOA dataNew data please!
'Spatial Microsimulation'
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Aggregating 'electricity' IIb
Forest Heath 002A/Bc. 73% = Born in the USA!
LSOAs East of England
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Aggregating 'electricity' IIc
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Aggregating 'electricity' IId
Spearman rho: Town: 0.6403 Urban: 0.5915 Village: 0.7948
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
So what? We can map:
Energy 'poverty' Energy 'inequality'
And we can model Potential policy
effects
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
So what? We can map:
Energy 'poverty' Energy 'inequality'
And we can model Potential policy
effects But also
The electricity expenditures may be robust
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Conclusions Thinking about expenditures as proxies for practices
Has some value BUT there are problems
Zeros? Mis-reporting?
Where next?
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Conclusions Thinking about expenditures as proxies for practices
Has some value BUT there are problems
Zeros? Mis-reporting?
Where next? Data linkage? Micro and area level calibration?
Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012
Thank you Dr Ben Anderson
Sustainable Practices Research Group www.sprg.ac.uk
Spatial microsimulation: cresi.essex.ac.uk/getPubsByTag?tag=spatial%20microsimulation