WORKSHOPCombating Climate Change:

National Commitments and Activities

22 March 2002, Skopje

National Inventories and Future Projections of GHG Emissions

Research Center for Energy, Informatics and Materials (ICEIM)

Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts (MANU)

1.Team StructureProject Leader: Akad. Jordan Pop-Jordanov

Project Coordinator: Akad. Tome Bosevski

Executive Secretary: Dr. Natasa Markovska

Energy Industrial ProcessesAcad. T. Bosevski Acad. B. [ optrajanov Acad. J. Pop-Jordanov Prof. S. Hadzi-JordanovAcad. G. Kanevce B.Sc. A. VolkanovskiM.Sc. M. TodorovskiDr. N. Krstanovski

Agriculture LUCF WasteAcad. R. Lozanovski Acad. R. Lozanovski Acad. B. [ optrajanov Dr. N. Markovska Dr. N. Markovska Prof. S. Hadzi-Jordanov

B.Sc. A. Volkanovski

2. Inventory of GHG emissions

2.1 Sector ENERGY

Subsectors Liquid fuels (kt) [%] Solid fuels (kt) [%] Total (kt) [%]

Energy Industries 235.36 9.17 6,621.89 100 6,857.25 74.62

Manufacturing Industries and Construction 639.93 24.93 0 0 639.93 6.96

Transport 1,176.44 45.83 0 0 1,176.44 12.8

Commercial/Institutional & Residential 316.95 12.35 0 0 316.95 3.45

Agriculture / Forestry / Fishing 198.49 7.73 0 0 198.49 2.16

Other 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 2,567.18 100 6,621.89 100 9,189.07 100

Contribution [%] 27.94 72.06

CO2 emissions (year 1998)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

[kt]

Agriculture / Forestry / Fishing

Commercial/Institutional &Residential

Transport

Manufacturing Industries andConstruction

Fugitive Emissions

Energy Industries

Subsectorial CO2-equivalent emissions

82.8

82.9

82.4

82.9

81.8

81.7

82.3

82.2

82.0

16.8

16.7

17.2

16.7

17.8

17.8

17.3

17.4

17.6

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0 20 40 60 80 100

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

[%]

CO2 CH4 N2O

Contribution of CO2, CH4 and N2O to CO2-eq. emissions

58.5

60.0

58.0

60.9

61.3

60.3

61.0

61.5

16.1

15.9

16.4

15.9

17.0

17.2

16.7

17.0

17.2

8.2

8.2

7.8

7.3

5.6

5.5

6.0

6.0

5.7

10.0

10.4

9.2

12.2

11.2

10.9

11.5

10.7

10.6

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.4

3.6

3.5

3.7

3.4

3.3

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.2

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

58.9

0 20 40 60 80 100

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

[%]

Energy Industries Fugitive Emissions

Manufacturing Industries and Construction Transport

Commercial/Institutional & Residential Agriculture / Forestry / Fishing

Subsectorial contribution to CO2-equivalent emissions

2.2 Sector INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

[kt]

Metal Production

Chemical Industry

Mineral Products

Subsectorial CO2-equivalent emissions

95.7

94.7

96.5

95.1

89.6

94.0

94.1

94.3

93.6

4.3

5.3

3.5

4.9

10.4

6.0

5.9

5.7

6.4

0 20 40 60 80 100

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

[%]

CO2 N2O

Contribution of CO2, CH4 and N2O to CO2-eq. emissions

38.2

39.2

34.3

31.0

36.2

49.4

44.6

41.4

35.5

5.4

6.4

4.7

6.4

11.7

7.5

7.6

6.8

7.8

56.4

54.4

61.0

62.6

52.1

43.2

47.9

51.8

56.8

0 20 40 60 80 100

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

[%]

Mineral Products Chemical Industry Metal Production

Subsectorial contribution to CO2-equivalent emissions

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1995 1997 1998

A Enteric Fermentation

B Manure Management

C Rice Cultivation

D Agricultural Soils

2.3 Sector AGRICULTURE

[kt]

Subsectorial CO2-equivalent emissions

39.54

40.17

40.59

41.26

40.43

41.14

42.79

44.35

44.17

60.46

59.83

59.41

58.74

59.57

58.86

57.21

55.65

55.83

0 20 40 60 80 100

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

%CH4 %N2O

Contribution of CH4 and N2O to CO2-eq. emissions

(%)

35.95

36.62

37.07

37.25

37.86

39.10

40.44

40.20

8.95

8.96

8.59

8.74

8.88

9.21

10.10

10.65

10.56

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.3

54.64

53.96

53.89

53.15

53.77

52.86

50.54

48.58

48.95

37.82

0 20 40 60 80 100

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

A Enteric Fermentation

B Manure Management

C Rice Cultivation

D Agricultural Soils

Subsectorial contribution to CO2-equivalent emissions

(%)

2.4 Sector LUCF

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Year

kt/y

ea

r

Removals of CO2 (kt/yr) for the period 1990 - 1998

Subsectors 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Biomass (removals) 1485.3 1603.4 1661.9 1696.7 1757.8 1804.2 1781.6 2203.4 2242.5

Soil (removals) 62.26 62.26 62.26 62.26 62.26 62.26 62.26 62.26 62.26

Forest and Grassland (release) 83.64 6.48 136.31 209.41 84.22 1.52 14.24 51.32 27.44

TOTAL (removals) 1463.9 1659.2 1587.8 1549.5 1735.8 1864.9 1829.6 2214.3 2277.3

Balance between removals and releases of CO2 (kt CO2) for the period 1990 – 1998

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

[kt]

Solid Waste Domestic/Commercial Wastewater

Industrial Wastewater Human Sewage

2.5 Sector WASTE

Subsectorial CO2-equivalent emissions

87.8

87.9

87.8

87.9

88.0

87.8

88.1

87.9

88.2

12.2

12.1

12.2

12.1

12.0

12.2

11.9

12.1

11.8

0 20 40 60 80 100

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

(%)

CH4 N20

Contribution of CH4 and N2O to CO2-eq. emissions

78.8

79.8

80.0

80.3

81.1

81.3

79.7

6.5

6.3

4.8

4.8

4.0

4.0

3.9

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.9

3.1

2.6

4.6

12.2

12.1

12.2

12.1

12.0

12.2

11.9

12.1

11.8

78.9

81.5

5.6

5.6

1.5

2.2

0 20 40 60 80 100

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

(%)

Solid Waste Domestic/Commercial WastewaterIndustrial Wastewater Human Sewage

Subsectorial contribution to CO2-equivalent emissions

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

[kt]

Waste

Land Use Change andForestry

Agriculture

Industrial Processes

Energy

2.6 Integrated results

Sectorial CO2-equivalent emissions

68.3

68.7

67.1

69.0

70.0

72.1

72.0

72.3

74.3

10.5

9.5

9.2

7.7

7.1

6.1

6.5

7.6

7.1

13.1

13.5

14.1

13.5

14.1

13.7

12.8

11.5

10.5

7.5

8.3

8.6

8.3

8.1

8.2

8.5

8.2

8.0

0.6

1.5

1.0

0.0

0.6

0.0

0.1

0.4

0.2

0 20 40 60 80 100

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

[%]

Energy Industrial Processes

Agriculture Land Use Change and Forestry

Waste

Sectorial contribution to CO2-equivalent emissions

67.15

65.95

65.13

65.90

64.23

64.62

65.46

66.98

67.69

23.28

24.16

24.84

24.47

25.33

25.68

25.51

24.91

24.80

9.57

9.89

10.03

9.63

10.43

9.71

9.03

8.11

7.51

0 20 40 60 80 100

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

[%]

CO2 CH4 N2O

Contribution of CO2, CH4 and N2O to CO2-eq. emissions

3. Evaluation of input data 3.1 Sector ENERGY

Data sources:[1] Statistical Office, Republic of Macedonia, Yearbooks.

[2] Public Enterprise for Airport Services Macedonia, Airports Skopje and Ohrid,Internal Documents.

[3] Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: ReferenceManual.

[4] Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Workbook

[5] Electric Power Utility of Macedonia, Annual Reports.

Distribution of items by sources

Source Activity dataEmissionfactors

[1] 74 0

[2] 3 0

[3] 0 2

[4] 0 90

[5] 0 2

Total 77 94

3.2 Sector INDUSTRIAL PROCESSESData sources:

[1] Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia:

a) Industry in the Republic of Macedonia 1987-1992, Statistical Review 242, Skopje,February 1994, Republic of Macedonia.b) Industry in the Republic of Macedonia 1993-1998, Statistical Review 330, Skopje,November 1999, Republic of Macedonia

[2] IPCC default data

Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Workbook,Module 2: INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES

[3] Estimated by local expertsDistribution of items by sources

Source Activity dataEmissionfactors

[1] 20 0

[2] 0 19

[3] 0 1

Total 20 20

3.3 Sector AGRICULTURE

Data sources:

[1] Statistical Yearbooks of the Republic of Macedonia, Chapter: Agriculture, StatisticalOffice of the Republic of Macedonia, Skopje

[2] Estimations of experts working on the project in consultation with experts from theMinistry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy

[3] Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Workbookand Reference Manuel, Module 4: AGRICULTURE

[4] Filipovski G. (1999): Soils in the Republic of Macedonia, Macedonian Academy ofSciences and Arts, Skopje.

Distribution of items by sources

Source Activity data Emission factors

Ref. [1] 8 0

Ref. [2] 6 0

Ref. [3] 0 56

Ref. [4] 1 0

Total 15 56

3.4 Sector LUCFData sources:

[1] Statistical Yearbooks of the Republic of Macedonia, Chapter: Forestry, StatisticalOffice of the Republic of Macedonia, Skopje

[2] Energy Balance of the Republic of Macedonia for 2001, Ministry of Economy,December 2000

[3] Forests and Forest Land, Space Plan of the Republic of Macedonia, Draft version,Department for Physical Planning, Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning,1998

[4] Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Workbookand Reference Manuel, Module 5: LAND USE CHANGE AND FORESTRY

[5] Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Economy, (Internal Publications)

[6] Filipovski G. (1999): Soils in the Republic of Macedonia, Vol IV: Histosols,Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Skopje.

Distribution of items by sources

Sources Activity data Emission factors

Ref. [1] 14 0

Ref. [2] 2 0

Ref. [3] 0 3

Ref. [4] 0 46

Ref. [5] 6 0

Ref. [6] 8 0

Total 30 49

3.5 Sector WASTEData sources:

[1] Statistical Yearbooks of the Republic of Macedonia, Chapter: Industry, StatisticalOffice of the Republic of Macedonia, Skopje

[2] Estimations of experts working on the project in consultation with other localexperts

[3] Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories:Workbook and Reference Manuel, Module 6: WASTE

[4] (a) Industry in Republic of Macedonia 1987-1992, Statistical Review 242, Skopje,February 1994, Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia(b) Industry in Republic of Macedonia 1993-1998, Statistical Review 330, Skopje,November 1999 Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia,

Distribution of items by sources

Sources Activity dataEmissionFactors

[1] 13 0

[2] 32 0

[3] 0 25

[4] 2 0

Total 47 25

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2020

[kt]

Waste

Land Use Change andForestry

Agriculture

Industrial Processes

Energy

4. Projections of GHG emissions

Subsectorial CO2-equivalent emissions

68.3

68.7

67.1

69.0

70.0

72.1

72.0

72.3

74.3

75.1

10.5

9.5

9.2

7.7

7.1

6.1

6.5

7.6

7.1

6.0

13.1

13.5

14.1

13.5

14.1

13.7

12.8

11.5

10.5

8.5

7.5

8.3

8.6

8.3

8.1

8.2

8.5

8.2

8.0

10.2

0.6

1.5

1.0

0.0

0.6

0.0

0.1

0.4

0.2

0.3

0 20 40 60 80 100

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

2020

[%]

Energy Industrial Processes

Agriculture Land Use Change and Forestry

Waste

Subsectorial contribution to CO2-equivalent emissions

5. GHG Data Collection and Management System

S ta tist ica l O ffice o f th eR ep u b lic o f M a ced o n ia

S O R M

C o lle c tin g s ta tis t ic a l d a taS ta tis t ic a l e x a m in a tio n

R eg io n a lS ta t ist ica lO fficers

C o lle c tin gd a ta fro min d iv id u a lso u rc e s

M u n ic ip a lE n terp r ise s

D a ta o n-W a s te

M in is try o f E co n o m yM o E

D a ta o n - F u e l P ro d u c tio n Im p o rt , E x p o r t C o n s u m p tio n - T h e rm a l P o w e r P la n ts - B o ile rs > 2 M W - Te c h n o lo g y

M in is try o fTra ff ic a n d

C o m m u n ica tio n sM o T C

D a ta o n-T ra n s p o rt

Av ia tio nR a il T ra n sp o r tN a v ig a tio n

M in is try o fIn terio r

A ffa irM o IA

D a ta o n-R o a d T ra n s p o r t

M in is try o fA g r icu ltu re ,F o restry a n d

W a ter E co n o m yM o A F W E

D a ta o n - A g r ic u ltu re - F o re s try - W a s te W a te r

M in is try o fH ea lthM o H

R e g io n a lIn s p e c to r a te s

D a ta o n- E m iss io n in th e a ir

M in is try o f E n v iro n m en t a n d P h y s ica l P la n n in gM o E P P

C o o rd in a tio nVe rif ic a tio nF in a n c in g

M A N U

A c tiv it ie s :M o d e lsS to rin gC a lc u la tio n

S e c to rs :E n e rg yIn d u s tr ia l P ro c e s se s & W a s teA g r ic u ltu re & L a n d U se C h a n g e a n d F o re s try