workshop on flood management in a transboundary context, 13-14.12.2011, jacob host madsen
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Effects of climate change on flood risksWorkshop on “Flood management in a transboundary context”, 13-14.12.2011, Zagreb, CroatiaTRANSCRIPT
Jacob Høst-Madsen
Effects of climate change on flood risks
Director, consultancy
Climate change is here and will have impact
Water Stress Changes by 2025
Vorosmarty et al., 2000
80% of future
stress from
population
& development
not
climate change
Climate change adaptation: Many stakeholders
• Countries
• Ministries
• EU
• Insurance industry
• Local communities
• Water supply works
• Citizens
• Regions
• Health authorities
• Emergency units
• ……….
What is IWRM ?
Securing basic water needs takes
50 l/cap/day
Securing our basic diet takes 2500
l/cap/day
Bio-fuels using up to 10-30,000 l
water per l bio-fuel!
A process which promotes co-ordinated development and management of water, land
and related resources in order to maximize the economic and social welfare in an
equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of the nature.
Water governance and IWRM:
A never ending cycle!
Vision
Strategy
Situation analysis
Implementation
Monitoring
IWRM Plan
AwarenessParticipationCommitmentCapacity
WR management issues
The basin as the basic
management unit
Opportunities for modelling
IWRM where?
IWRM processes focus on critical
water resources issues of any basin
New climate change guidelines from DHI
• Working with climate change: Water resources guidelines
• Working with climate change: Urban water guidelines
• Working with climate change: Marine water guidelines
The guidelines can provide answers to:
• Where and how to do screening and detail investigations?
• How to do adaptation and intelligent planning?
• How to do contingency planning?
• How to see adaptation planning as a continued effort?
Purpose:
• Safeguard the future service level
• Identity new flood risk zones, due to climate changes
• Estimation of flood damanges
• Preparation of flood mitigation plans (climate adoptions)
Example: Guidelines for the analyses of the
impacts from climate changes on sewer systems
The road towards informed decisions – according to the climate
guidelines
1. Will there be a problem ?
2. How big will it be ?
3. When will it arrive ?
4. What will it cost ?
5. How can damages be reduced ?
Informed decisions – Urban water
• Avoid contact with mixtures of rain water and
wastewater
• Protection of vital functions in society, i.e.
electricity, water, heating, communication and
hospitals,
• Economical estimates of damages to society
• Develop emergency plans
Flood damage reduction
• Reduction of the flood extent
• Reduction of the interaction with the flood
• Control of the surface runoff and subsequently flooded areas
• Emergency plans and actions
• Flood warning and information systems
Example: Greve, Denmark
Example – Greve Denmark
The intelligent city
The football field: A new flood control storage - Denmark?
Intelligent planning - Porto Alegre - Brazil
Get the water out of the sewerage system
DHI Climate Change DSS Powerful decision support for climate change
adaptation
Applications
• Analyses of impacts from different
emission scenarios and different
global circulation models
• Analysis of climate vulnerability,
undertainty, and downscaling
• View and display information
concerning current and future climate
scenarios
Features
• Current and future climate information
• Scenario data
• Vulnerability information
• Impacts information
• Adaptation impacts
• Analysis tools
• Data exchange
• Downscaling
• Uncertainty
• Comparison of adaptation measures
• Forum for decisions
• Presentation and analysis
• Database.
Benefits
• Strong decision support
• Easy analysis from Global
Circulation model to local impact
• Output tailored for stakeholders
and decision makers
• Part of DHI Solution Software
Downscaling & corrections
GCM projections:
Dynamical
Downscaling
RCM projections:
Local Climate simulations:
Statistical Downscaling Bias
Corrections
Weather generators,
….
Local Hydrological simulations:
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Climate change tool In MIKE by DHI
Case: The Nile Basin Decision Support System
The Nile Basin DSS Project
Client : Nile Basin Initiative, Water Resources
Management Project, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Lead Consultant : DHI Sub-consultants:
• Riverside Technologies, USA
• Mott MacDonald, UK
• Tropics Consultants, Ethiopia.
• Funding : World Bank
• Project Period (May 2009 – May 2012)
• Project Scope (WP1 : IT Project) – Software Requirement Analysis
– Software Architecture and Design
– Software Development and Testing
– Proof-of-concept
• WP2 (NB DSS Application within the Nile Basin) – Software Testing
– Full scale application
Background (Nile Basin DSS)
• Key Treaties and Events
Various Bi-lateral Agreements Sudan/Egypt and upstream riparians (no downstream
Impacts unless agreed with Sudan/Egypt)
High Aswan Dam (1955) Capacity 111 BCM.
Nile Basin Treaty (1959): 55.5 BCM/yr for Egypt
18.5 BCM/yr for Sudan.
Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) Established (1999) Under the NILE COM (Ministers of Water Affairs)
• promote cooperation and co-ordination in the Basin
Nile Basin water resources
management Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda
Challenge The 9 riparian countries of the Nile river basin, represented by the Nile Basin
Initiative, have agreed to develop the water resources of the 3 million km2 Nile
river basin in a cooperative manner; share socioeconomic benefits, and
promote regional peace and security. The development of shared and
accepted water resources management technologies is an important element
in achieving this common vision.
Solution The Nile Basin decision support system (NB DSS) integrates climatological,
hydrological and environmental data with sophisticated water simulation
models, together with sector economic production models, cost-benefit and
multi-criteria analysis tools.
Value The NB DSS provides accepted processes and tools for quantifying the
benefits of water and for sharing of information. It enables transparent and
objective prioritisation of investments and contributes to sustainable water
resources management in the Nile Basin.
“The Nile Basin decision support system will provide the basis for agreement on
and development of sustainable water resources projects in the Nile Basin.”
Dr. Abdulkarim H. Seid, DSS Lead Specialist
Water Resources Management Project, Nile Basin Initiative
Why a Nile Basin DSS?
Objective:
To enhance capacity to support basin wide communication, information exchange, and identifying trans-boundary opportunities for cooperative development of the Nile Basin water resources.
The Nile Basin DSS is expected to be an agreed upon tool that will be
accepted and used by all riparian countries in the management of the shared Nile water resources.
NBI Institutional Mandates
Basin Development Planning related
– Coordination for Subsidiary Action Programs
– Support investment financing, mobilization of funding
resources
– Basin-wide river operations policies
NBI-Secretariat
Objective: Achieving efficient trans-boundary management and
optimal use of Nile Basin water and water-related resources
The NB DSS / Institutions
• Regional level
– Regional Nile Basin DSS Center
(NBI, Addis Ababa)
• Sub Regional Level
– ENTRO (Eastern Nile)
– NELSAP (Nile Equatorial Lakes)
• National Level
– National DSS unit in each of the 9
countries (4 staff pr. Country).
NB DSS - Areas of Concern (determined through stakeholder consultation)
Water resources development: main focus on interventions that alter the time and space distribution of water in the basin; involve physical structures.
Optimal water resources utilization: Main focus on those planning decisions required to enhance utilization of available water resources, mainly through non-structural interventions.
Energy development (hydropower): focuses on development of hydropower potentials in the basin.
Rain-fed and irrigated agriculture: area focuses on assessing current productivity and production levels of both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture supporting efforts to increase food production through relevant interventions, such as in the planning of irrigated agriculture.
Coping with floods: main focus in the first phase of the DSS shall be to provide information on characteristics of flood prone areas, flow generation, assessing impacts (or benefits) of storage reservoirs on flood control, etc.
Coping with droughts: support drought management efforts, including the planning for adaptation to climate change and variability.
Watershed and Sediment Management: evaluation of impacts of alternative land use/cover on the hydrology of the river system, the estimation of sediment yield, and reservoir sedimentation.
Navigation: focus to identify how navigation might be affected by contemplated interventions and support efforts to minimize the adverse impacts. In addition, navigation benefits shall be considered in the planning and management of storage schemes.
Cross cutting issues: Climate change and water quality
NB DSS - Areas of Concern (determined through stakeholder consultation)
Real Time
Modeling
Core
Database
Time series
GIS
Models
Scenarios
Users
Meta data
Change log
The DSS Platform
On-line data
Workflows
Events & alarms
Rules
Notification
Data
assimilation
Job scheduling
Uncertainty
Users
workgroups Time
series GIS
Data broker
DIMS
WEB
Publishing
Scripting
Spreadsheets
Optimisation
Ensembles Indicators
Models
Scenarios
MCA/CBA
Linked
models
Case: Sava
Development of Upper Sava Flood Forecasting
System
- Sava Basin -
Key Figures
10880 km2 Catchment
Automatic forcasts issued each hour for the next 6 days
Forecasting at 40 Locations
Development of Upper Sava Flood Forecasting
System
- Slovenian Model -
Development of Upper Sava Flood Forecasting
System
- Model Development -
MIKE11 model includes: - Modelling of 40 sub-basins - Hydrodynamic modelling of Sava and 20 trib. - Modelling of all important Structures - Comprehensive model calibation/verification
Forecasting based on: - Online data from Hydrometric network - Input from meteorological models: (INCA,Aladdin,ECWMF) - Real time modelling with MIKE 11 including data assimilation at all forecasting locations
(Example from model calibration at one of the 40 forecasting locations)
Development of Upper Sava Flood Forecasting
System
- Implementation Schedule - 2010 Month 6 Completion of MIKE 11 forecasting model - Forecasting at 40 locations 2010 End of Year Real Time operation – WEB dissemination 2011 - Further Upgrading of Forecasting System - Flood mapping in selected area - Inflow forecasting Provision for upgrade to entire Sava basin
Thanks for your attention