workshop process “future water use and the challange of hydropower development in western...
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Workshop process
“Future water use and the challange of hydropower development in western Balkan”
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana
Anita Pirc VelkavrhStrategic Futures
European Environment Agency
Goals of the workshop:• Capacity building in understanding and learning methods applied in the project (explorative scenario building method and computer based vision building)• Strengthening the Eionet network in Western Balkan in forward-looking issues related to water use and enhance their communication and exchange of practices and knowledge• Providing input information, gather stakeholders for EEA report
Workshop outcomes: • Refined scenarios for WB: water availability, energy development, risks of floods and droughts, good water quality biodiversity, food and energy supply, health risk and conflicts. • Desired vision for hydropower use for electricity production.• Acquired knowledge on and practice of computer based vision
building tool (“vision canvas”) for water sector.
DAY 124 October 2011
Day 1Get to know better
• each other
• the region of Western Balkan with its
challanges• Balkan scenarios developed in 2011
Scenarios on water availability in the context of climate change for Western Balkan until 2060 (produced 2011)
DAY 225 October 2011
Scenarios for Western Balkan until 2060 (produced 2011) :
insights to water use, energy supply, security impacts
Day 2Insights to scenarios 2011
• ETC ICM expert view on the region:– Water and economy, hydroenergy and some impacts
to water• Refinment of scenarios
– Water use, energy supply (incl HP), security implications
– Case examples for each scenarios for specific areas (Neretva, Drina, Vardar, Tara, Danube, Sava)
• Work in 4 groups, 4 faciliators and 4 helpers, in plenay (case studies)
Refinment of scenarios
Each group will work on 1 scenarios (pay attention to the scenarios for your group)
Remeber:
• Axes of scenarios • Key characteristics and trigger points for
scenarios (see background doc)
DAY 326 October 2011
VISION
Day 3Vision building
• develop your visions:- Your own vision for your country (on energy/HP)- Group vision for energy/HP in WB
• using web tool (VISION CANVAS) adopted for this workshop
• work in 4 groups, 2 facilitators from Alterra on tool use, 4 group faciliators
• Feedback on experiance from using the tool in evaluation questioannair
• Conclusions of the workshop
Mode of work
Facilitated group work
Countries focus: many presentations with countries experiances
Posters with key information
Creative work, personal contributions
See Rules of engagement
When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.
Thank you
How to deal with the future?
• scenarios
Zureck and Henrichs, 2007
WHY SCENARIOS?• Provide long term view• Need for perpective• Slow unfolding processes• Limited understanding of systems, complex dynamic systems• Water system includes and is influenced by many factors which are
difficult to quantify• Holistic view on water systems• Input to decision making with alternatives and causual processes• Platform for conversation and consensus building
Provide better understanding of focal issue and decisions in place or foreseen.
Qualitative scenarios
Qualitative: words, images, stories
They are understandable, easy and interesting to communicate
They can represent complex systems Represent views of different experts and stakeholders at
the same time
They lack numerical estimates Assumptions are not articulated clearly
Combination qualitative and quantitative: Story and simulation approach
Gallopin and Raskin, 2002
EXAMPLE
Projections and quantitative modelling of future (trends)
Produced by computer models
Assumptions are clearer than in qual. scenarios They receive some degree of scientific scrutnity
To the users they can imply that we know more about the future than we actually do
Difficult to communicate to non-experts Can’t capture phenomena which can’t be described by
numbers (i.e.social) and complex environment Limited in scope/selected pheomena are described
IEA long-term forecasts of annual additions: World
European wind association, 2008
ST
EE
P
Identify driving forces
SESSION 2
Identify most important uncertainties
SESSION 3
S1
S3
S2
S4
Identify scenarios matrix
SESSION 4
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESSWhat will be water availability in the western Balkan region in next decades?
S1
S3
S2
S4
Identify scenario logic
SESSION 2
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESSWhat will be the impacts of climate change on water availability in the
western Balkan region in long term future (50 years)?
S1
S3
S2
S4
Description of scenarios
SESSION 3
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESSWhat will be water availability in the western Balkan region in next decades?
S1
S3
S2
S4
Risks to water availability in the future
SESSION 4
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS
S1S1
S3
S2
S4
Storylines development
SESSION 3
S4S3
S2
DESCRIPITON of the future state
By STEEP categories:
Social issuesTechnological issuesEconomic issuesEnvironmental issues:•Water•Climate change impacts•general
Political issues
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESSWhat will be water availability in the western Balkan region in next decades?
S1
S3
S2
S4
What is threatening availability of water in each scenario and what are the risks?
SESSION 4
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS
Threats by STEEP categories:
Social issues Ie.security
Technological issuesEconomic issuesEnvironmental issues: Ie. Climate change
Political issues
THREATS1. water pollution in urban areas2. lack of water treatment infrastructure in coastal areas3. lack of new technologies for irrigation
S1
RISKS1.of lack of good sanitation water availability in urban areas in coast and big cities – HIGH risk 2.of lack of food (domestic crop production, more imports needed) – MEDIUM risk
S1
Goals identification to control risks
SESSION 4
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS
risks
RISKS1.of lack of good sanitation water availability in urban areas in coast and big cities – HIGH risk 2.of lack of food (domestic crop production, more imports needed) – MEDIUM risk
GOALS 1.Reduce water pollution2.Secure food for domestic population3.…..
S1
2
Pathways to future goals
SESSION 5
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS
GOAL 1
GOAL 1
3
3
1
3
3
3
S3
NOW
NOW
Implications and paths,warning indicators
SESSION 5
SCENARIO QUESTION
Revise scenario question (Output 1):
What are the possible sustainable energy pathways until 2050 in Eastern Europe?
SESSION 1
Output 2
List of driving forces(in English and Russian)
SESSION 2DRIVING FORCES
ST
EE
P
Identify driving forces
Output 3
Four potential scenario axes(in English and Russian)
SESSION 3UNCERTAINTIESIdentify most important uncertainties
Output 4
Selected matrix (two scenario axes)(in English and Russian)
SESSION 4SCENARIO LOGICIdentify most important uncertainties
Output 5
4 Energy scenarios
SESSION 4SCENARIO DESCRIPTION
S1
S3
S2
S4
Develop plausible scenarios
Output 6
First identification of environmental impacts per scenario
SESSION 5ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS Implications