world agricultural prospects the road to 2050 · the road to 2050 analysis by cedric porter, supply...

ISSUE 235 • 29 September 2015 © 2015 Agri Markets Limited 1

World Agricultural

Prospects

The road to 2050

Analysis by Cedric Porter,

Supply Intelligence Ltd.

This is a personal view of the challenge of feeding 9.7 billion people by 2050 that is designed to question

conventional wisdom on the subject. It has been written by UK agricultural supply specialist Cedric Porter of Supply Intelligence Ltd. Please feel free to share it with colleagues. If you do wish to use of any of the information then

please credit Cedric Porter, Supply Intelligence and any sources.

If you wish to discuss any of your agricultural supply chain needs with Cedric Porter, contact him on Tel: +441892 543444. Mob:+447881 956446. Email: [email protected]. Twitter: Cedricp

or web: www.worldagriculturalprospects.com

mailto:[email protected]

World Agricultural Prospects. Supply Intelligence Ltd 2016 2

How much food do we really need? The need to feed 9.7 billion people by 2050 has become a major theme for the agricultural industry. Some have said that it will lead to a new golden age for farmers who will be the ones driving Ferraris, not the bankers, as they

profit from the demand for what they produce.

But what feeding the world over the next 35 years actually means has, perhaps, received less attention than is deserved. This report aims to shed light on the subject by making predictions based on publicly available

population, land, production and supply data from the UN, UN FAOSTAT, World Bank, USDA and others.

Based on the changes in consumption seen over the 30 year period to 2010, we predict that the total amount of food in the main crop and livestock categories will have to increase by 53% to 12.160 billion tonnes by 2050, an

increase of 4.230 billion tonnes on 2015 production levels. Production will need to increase by over 26% by 2030 if the historic increase in supply per head seen between 1980 and 2010 is maintained. Both these estimates are

below those of others. We believe that using the historic rate of supply between 1980 and 2010 is a valid one as it was a period that saw rapid growth in the economies of South America, much of Asia (including China and India), some of Africa and a peak in consumption in developed countries in North America and Europe.

Our research has unveiled a number of key issues that we believe will be vital to farmers, the food industry and policymakers over the next 35 years:

Growth in food demand of around 50% by 2050, compared to 115% over the last 35 years.

There may be a decline in the rate of increase in consumption, but the world will still have produce nearly five billion tonnes more in 2050 than it did in 2015.

A need to increase yields if land used for agriculture is not to be increased substantially.

A massive challenge in feeding Africa where the population is growing at 3% a year

A decline in European demand as the continent’s population declines along with its consumption rates.

Continued urbanisation, especially in China, India and Africa. Urbanisation and greater wealth in developing countries may increase meat consumption and the consumption of non-grain foods, but in developed countries there is evidence that consumption of all foods has peaked as concerns over obesity

and waste increase and a long-term shift to non-manual jobs takes place.

There are two major unknowns that could have a significant impact on the world’s ability to feed itself. One is

climate change. This report does not directly address the subject, but the predictions for how temperatures, sea levels, rainfall and drought events may change are of concern to anyone in the business of feeding the world. The implications of climate change are likely to be the most severe in regions of the world where the increasing

demand for food is at its greatest, including Africa and South East Asia.

The second great unknown is livestock product consumption. We predict that production of milk will need to increase by 55.7% to 1.304 billion tonnes and meat output will need to increase by 89% to 602 million tonnes. But

the increase in livestock consumption may be approaching a peak. China’s meat supply per head is already 80% of Europe’s at 60kg/head/year, while India’s meat supply per head has remained around 4kg/head/year for the last

35 years. African meat supply rose by 27% between 1980 and 2010, but is still under 20kg/head/year. Meanwhile, in Europe and North America per head consumption of meat and dairy products is now declining.

This report is designed to prompt discussion. We welcome your thoughts, coments and criticisms. If you would

like to discuss your specific agricultural supply requirements then please contact us – there is plenty more where it came from.

Farmers may not be queuing to buy Ferraris just yet, but there remains a positive future for those farmers across

the world who can steward their resources wisely, identify opportunities and respond to a changing food market.

Cedric Porter, Supply Intelligence Ltd

Tel: +441892 543444. Mob:+447881 956446. Email: [email protected]. Twitter: Cedricp

mailto:[email protected]


Contents

How much food do we really need? Page 2

Population changes Page 4

Index of agricultural security Page 8

Grain production Page 11

Grain consumption & prices Page 12

Urbanisation Page 15

Includes reports on China, India, Nigeria, Brazil, USA & UK

Predictions for future production Page 23

The farming road to 2050 Page 27

Cereal supply past & future Page 30


Tables and charts Chart 1:Population increase in billions 1980 to 2015 Page 4

Table 1: Population of main world regions 1980 to 2015 in billions Page 4

Chart 2: Actual & predicted annual population increase in millions. Page 5

Chart 3: regional population increase in billions 2015 to 2050 Page 5

Table 2: Predicted changes in world and regional populations 2015-2050 Page 6

Table 3: Predicted population changes in key countries in millions 2015 to 2050 Page 7

Table 4: Area of agricultural land per person in 25 key countries 2015 to 2050 Page 8

Table 5: Area of arable land per person in 25 key countries 2015 to 2050 Page 10

Chart 4: Grain production & consumption 1985-2015 in million tonnes Page 11

Chart 5: 10 year growth in grain production, consumption & population in %. Sources: USDA & UN Page 11

Chart 6: Grain consumption per head 1985-2015 Page 12

Chart 7: Tonnes of grain consumed - various scenarios to 2050 Page 12

Chart 8: Grain stocks to use ratio in % & wheat price Page 13

Chart 9: Actual and trend Stock to use ratio % Page 13

Table 6: Urbanisation levels and rates 1990-2050 Page 15

Table 7: Urbanisation, food supply and consumption in China Page 16

Table 8: Chinese population, crop yields and meat production Page 16

Chart 10:China urbanisation, population and production. 1981=100 Page 17

Table 9: Urbanisation, food supply and consumption in India Page 17

Table 10: Indian population, crop yields and meat production Page 18

Chart 11: India urbanisation, population and production. 1981=100 Page 18

Table 11: Urbanisation, food supply and consumption in Nigeria Page 19

Table 12: Nigerian population, crop yields and meat production Page 19

Chart 12: Nigeria urbanisation, population and production. 1981=100 Page 19

Table 13: Urbanisation, food supply and consumption in USA Page 20

Table 14: USA population, crop yields and meat production Page 20

Chart 13: USA urbanisation, population and production. 1981=100 Page 21

Table 15: Urbanisation, food supply and consumption in Brazil Page 21

Table 16: Brazil population, crop yields and meat production Page 21

Chart 14: Brazil urbanisation, population and production. 1981=100 Page 22

Table 17: Urbanisation, food supply and consumption in UK Page 22

Table 18: UK population, crop yields and meat production Page 22

Chart 15: UK urbanisation, population and production. 1981=100 Page 23

Table 19: World production and supply of key crops 1980-2010 Page 25

Table 20: World production and supply of key crops 1980-2010 contd. Page 26

Table 21: World production and supply of key livestock products 1980 to 2010 Page 26

Table 27: Predicted world use and production of key crops 2015-2050 in million tonnes Page 28

Table 29: Predicted world use and production of livestock products 2015-2050 Page 29

Table 30: World cereal production and supply 1980-2010 Page 31

Table 31: World cereal production and supply 1980-2010 continued Page 32

Table 32: Predicted world cereal use and production 2015-2050 Page 33

Table 33: Predicted world cereal use and production 2015-2050 continued Page 34


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Chart 1: Population increase in billions 1980 to 2015

World Asia Africa Europe

Latin America North America Oceania

Population changes examined Population levels are a key element in predicting future demand for grain products. Population growth in the last 35 years has been rapid across many parts of the world, and although it is slowing down, it will continue to play a

massive role in the coming 35 years. In the last 35 years the

population of the world has increased by two thirds to 7.349 billion with that growth

concentrated in Asia and Africa. The number of Africans has

soared by more than 150% to over a billion people. Population growth on the

continent has averaged more than 4% a year over the last 35 years, a very high rate.

In number terms, the most

significant growth has been in Asia with an extra 1.760 billion Asians in 2015 compared to

1980.

In contrast, population growth in Europe has been minimal at just 6.6% or 46 million people in 35 years. North American growth has been steady at nearly 40% over 35 years, while the Latin American population has jumped by three quarters since 1980.

Table 1: Population of main world regions 1980 to 2015 in billions

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

% change 1980-2015

% change a year*

World 4.435 4.831 5.263 5.674 6.070 6.454 6.972 7.349 +65.7 +1.88

Asia 2.632 2.887 3.168 3.430 3.680 3.917 4.252 4.393 +66.9 +1.91

Europe 0.692 0.706 0.721 0.727 0.728 0.725 0.732 0.738 +6.6 +0.19

Africa 0.470 0.542 0.622 0.707 0.796 0.888 1.022 1.186 +152.3 +4.35

Latin America 0.361 0.401 0.441 0.481 0.520 0.558 0.580 0.634 +75.6 +2.16

North America 0.256 0.269 0.283 0.299 0.316 0.332 0.351 0.358 +39.8 +1.14

Oceania 0.023 0.025 0.027 0.029 0.031 0.033 0.036 0.039 +72.4 +2.07

Source: UN. Note: * averaged over 35 years

World Population growth expected to slow The figures of the past 35 years hint at what is to come. Every year the world has to support another 80 million people putting greater and greater demands on farmers. But within the statisitcs there are figures that will have a

profound effect in many key countries of the world.

Population growth is predicted to continue, but at a slowing rate. In the last 35 years the world population has

grown at a rate of nearly 1.9% a year when averaged over the period, but in the coming 35 years that rate is expected to be at 0.9% a year taking the world population to 9.725 billion people, 2.376 billion or a third more people than today. That population growth will be concentrated in what the UN describes as Less Developed

Regions that include much of Asia, Africa and South America. In those regions population growth over the next 35 years is expected to be 38.4% compared to just 2.8% in the most developed regions which includes much of

Europe and North America.


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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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Chart 3: regional population increase in billions 2015 to 2050

World Asia Africa Europe

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1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2100

Chart 2: Actual & predicted annual population increase in millions, based on average of five year

periods to years indicated. Source: UN

Percentage population changes are

a useful guide, but only part of the picture. What is also important is the actual population change in

numbers. Currently there are an extra 85

million people every year to feed, house and water. That rate is

similar to what it was 10 years ago, but latest UN population estimates suggest that population growth has

peaked in number as well as percentage terms. The average annual population growth over the

next five years is expected to be at 82 million, similar to where it was

in the five years to 1995. By 2035 the rate is expected to have fallen

to below 70 million a year and be at 55 million a year by 2050. Looking ahead to the end of the century, the

world’s population is expected to grow by just 15 million people a year. Such consistent small growth in numbers will be unprecedented in world history, and arguably cause as many issues as a rapidly growing population.

Even though the increase in number of extra people on the earth is expected decline, it is important to recognise the enormity of the challenge faced by the world. Feeding 7.3 billion equitably today is a massive task and one

that is not yet achieved already, but feeding 9.7 billion by 2050 will require ingenuity and determination. Thankfully for the world and its farmers, the slowing down in the rate of population growth gives the world some time to plan and deliver the increase in production that is needed.

African population continues to outstrip the others African growth in population is expected to outstrip all other regions in both percentage and actual terms.

Population growth for the entire continent is expected to increase by

109% to 2.478 billion by 2050, an increase of 1.292 billion people on the 2015 total. The average annual rate of

population growth is expected to be 3.11%. The sub-Saharan region of Africa will see the greatest growth – up more

than 120% or 3.45% a year.

The growth in Africa contrasts with that

of Asia. There slowing population growth (and even population

contraction in China and Japan) are expected to balance out stronger growth in countries such as India, Indonesia and the The Philippines. The UN population predictions this report are based on were published before China’s relaxation of its one child policy.

That might mean greater population growth in China than previously expected, but some estimates put that at around only two million a year. Overall Asia is expected to grow by 19.9% to 5.267 billion (874 million more than

2015). That growth rate is an annual rate of 0.57% averaged across the 35 year period. The Western Asian region is expected to grow at the fastest rate. The region includes the Arab Peninsula, Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan.


Table 2: Predicted changes in world and regional populations 2015-2050

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 % chge 2015:50

% chge a year*

WORLD 7.349 7.758 8.142 8.500 8.839 9.157 9.454 9.725 +32.3 +0.92 More developed regions 1.251 1.266 1.277 1.284 1.287 1.288 1.288 1.286 +2.8 +0.08 Less developed regions 6 098 6.492 6.864 7.216 7.552 7.869 8.166 8.439 +38.4 +1.10 High-income countries 1.401 1.431 1.455 1.475 1.489 1.500 1.507 1.512 +7.9 +0.23 Mid-income countries 5.306 5.597 5.861 6.099 6.314 6.507 6.678 6.822 +28.6 +0.82 Low-income countries 0.638 0.727 0.821 0.924 1.032 1.147 1.265 1.386 +117.0 +3.34 AFRICA 1.186 1.340 1.504 1.679 1.866 2.063 2.268 2.478 +108.9 +3.11 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.962 1.096 1.240 1.397 1.565 1.744 1.930 2.123 +120.6 +3.45 ASIA 4.393 4.598 4.775 4.923 5.045 5.144 5.218 5.267 +19.9 +0.57 Eastern Asia 1.612 1.640 1.651 1.650 1.640 1.623 1.598 1.567 -2.8 -0.08 Central Asia 0.067 0.072 0.076 0.079 0.082 0.084 0.087 0.089 +31.7 +0.91 Southern Asia 1.823 1.940 2.049 2.147 2.234 2.310 2.373 2.424 +33.0 +0.94 South-Eastern Asia 0.633 0.668 0.698 0.725 0.748 0.767 0.781 0.792 +25.0 +0.72 Western Asia 0.257 0.279 0.301 0.322 0.341 0.361 0.379 0.395 +53.7 +1.54 EUROPE 0.738 0.740 0.738 0.733 0.728 0.721 0.714 0.706 -4.3 -0.12 Eastern Europe 0.093 0.290 0.285 0.279 0.271 0.264 0.258 0.252 -14.1 -0.40 Northern Europe 0.102 0.105 0.108 0.110 0.112 0.113 0.116 0.118 +14.9 +0.42 Southern Europe 0.152 0.152 0.151 0.149 0.148 0.146 0.144 0.142 -6.8 -0.20 Western Europe 0.191 0.193 0.195 0.196 0.196 0.197 0.196 0.196 +2.5 +0.07 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 0.634 0.666 0.696 0.721 0.747 0.760 0.774 0.784 +23.6 +0.67 Caribbean 0.043 0.045 0.046 0.047 0.047 0.048 0.048 0.048 +11.3 +0.32 Central America 0.173 0.184 0.194 0.203 0.212 0.219 0.224 0.229 +32.5 +0.93 South America 0.418 0.438 0.456 0.471 0.484 0.494 0.502 0.507 +21.2 +0.61 NORTHERN AMERICA 0.357 0.371 0.384 0.396 0.407 0.416 0.425 0.433 +21.0 +0.60 OCEANIA 0.039 0.042 0.044 0.047 0.049 0.052 0.054 0.057 +43.9 +1.26 Source: UN. Note: * averaged over 35 years

There is one continent that stands out amongst all others in that its population is expected to fall over the coming 35 years – Europe. The population of Europe is expected to drop 4.3% from 738 million to 706 million with South

America overtaking the continent as the third largest. The most significant population losses are expected to be in Eastern Europe which includes the Russian Federation, Poland, Ukraine and Hungary. Southern Europe (including

Italy and Spain) are expected to drop by nearly 7%, while the northern European population is expected to increase by nearly 15% to 118 million largely driven by a growing UK population.

There is expected to be solid growth in population in both North and Latin America with Central America (which includes Mexico) driving growth. Oceania is expected to grow by nearly 44% in the next 35 years, but its overall population will remain below 60 million.

India to overtake China as world’s largest population Some significant changes in population of individual countries are expected in the coming years. Perhaps one of the most significant changes is expected in the next ten years when India is predicted to overtake China as the world’s largest country by population. By 2025 the number there are expected to be 1.462 billion Indians

compared to 1.415 billion Chinese. In the next 35 years India’s population is expected to increase by nearly 30% to 1.692 billion, while China’s is expected to peak at around 2030 at 1.415 billion before slipping to 1.348 billion in

the following 20 years. Another major change is the expected increase in the Nigerian population which by 2050 is expected to be bigger

than the US population, with its 398 million population nearly 120% bigger than in 2015 and 10 million more than the USA. But that rate of growth is expected to be outstripped by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which

currently has 77.3 million inhabitants. That number is expected to grow by more than 150% or 4.4% a year over the next 35 years. Other significant increase include Pakistan, Ethiopia, Egypt and the the Philippines.


Table 3: Predicted population changes in key countries in millions 2015 to 2050 ranked by size in 2050

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 % chge 2015:50 % chge a year*

India 1311.1 1388.9 1461.6 1527.7 1585.3 1633.7 1673.6 1705.0 +30.0 +0.86 China 1376.0 1402.8 1414.9 1415.5 1408.3 1394.7 1374.7 1348.1 -2.0 -0.06 Nigeria 182.2 206.8 233.6 262.6 294.0 327.4 362.4 398.5 +118.7 +3.39 USA 321.8 333.5 345.1 355.8 365.3 373.8 381.5 388.9 +20.9 +0.60 Indonesia 257.6 271.9 284.5 295.5 304.8 312.4 318.2 322.2 +25.1 +0.72 Pakistan 188.9 208.4 227.2 244.9 262.1 279.0 295.1 309.6 +63.9 +1.83 Brazil 207.8 216.0 223.0 228.7 233.0 236.0 237.7 238.3 +14.6 +0.42 Bangladesh 161.0 170.5 179.1 186.5 192.5 197.1 200.4 202.2 +25.6 +0.73 Dem. Rep. of Congo 77.3 90.2 104.5 120.3 137.4 155.8 175.1 195.3 +152.7 +4.36 Ethiopia 99.4 112.0 125.0 138.3 151.4 164.3 176.7 188.5 +89.6 +2.56 Mexico 127.0 134.8 141.9 148.1 153.4 157.8 161.2 163.8 +28.9 +0.83 Egypt 91.5 100.5 108.9 117.1 125.6 134.4 143.1 151.1 +65.1 +1.86 Philippines 100.7 108.4 116.2 123.6 130.6 137.0 142.9 148.3 +47.2 +1.35 Russian Federation 143.5 142.9 141.2 138.7 135.7 132.9 130.6 128.6 -10.4 -0.30 Viet Nam 93.4 98.2 102.1 105.2 107.8 109.9 111.6 112.8 +20.7 +0.59 Japan 126.6 125.0 122.8 120.1 117.1 113.8 110.5 107.4 -15.1 -0.43 Turkey 78.7 82.3 84.9 87.7 90.5 92.7 94.5 95.8 +21.8 +0.62 Islamic Rep. of Iran 79.1 83.4 86.5 88.5 90.0 91.2 92.1 92.2 +16.6 +0.47 United Kingdom 64.7 66.7 68.5 70.1 71.5 72.8 74.1 75.4 +16.4 +0.47 Germany 80.7 80.4 80.0 79.3 78.4 77.3 76.0 74.5 -7.7 -0.22 France 64.4 65.7 66.9 68.0 69.0 69.9 70.6 71.1 +10.5 +0.30 South Africa 54.5 56.7 58.4 60.0 61.6 63.0 64.3 65.5 +20.3 +0.58 Italy 59.8 59.7 59.5 59.1 58.6 58.1 57.4 56.5 -5.5 -0.16 Canada 35.9 37.6 39.1 40.4 41.5 42.5 43.3 44.1 +22.8 +0.65 Australia 24.0 25.6 27.1 28.5 29.8 31.0 32.3 33.5 +39.7 +1.14 Source: UN. Note: * averaged over 35 years

Growth in other populations is expected to slow and be considerably slower than in the last 35 years. The USA, Canada and Australia are unusual in that they are still reasonably fast-growing developed countries.

They contrast to European countries such as Germany where the population is expected to fall by 7.7% over the next 35 years, although these calculations were made before the refugee crisis in Europe had fully developed.

Germany has said that it can give a home up to 500,000 people a year. If that occurs then Germany’s population will not decline as previously thought. However, it also has to be noted that if countries such as Germany do take large numbers of refugees then that will mean lower populations in countries where those people come from. For

example, it is estimated that around half of Syria’s 20 million population has been displaced since the start of its civil war in 2011.

The decline in population is more certain in other European countries. One of the most significant countries is the Russian Federation whose population is expected to drop by 10% to 128.6 million by 2050. Russia is important

because of its large land mass and area of agricultural land. More and more of that land will need to be devoted to producting for export products if its agricultural sector is not to shrink. It is a similar picture in other Eastern European countries such as Poland whose population is set to drop by 14.2% by 2050.

There are two standout European countries where populations are expected to increase – the UK and France. By

2050 the UK population could be larger than Germany’s with a 16.4% increase in numbers expected, with France also expected to top the 70 million mark within the next 35 years.


Index of agricultural security An important measure of a country’s ability to feed itself is the agricultural land in that country. In this sect ion we have developed an index of agricultural land security for 25 countries by dividing the amount of agricultural land

in each country by its population. We have used total land and agricultural land figures generated by the World Bank alongside the UN population figures. This has allowed us to express the number of hectares of agricultural land per head in 2015 and, by using the UN projected population figures, predictions for the area per person in

2030 and 2050. In our predictions we have assumed that there will be no extra land brought into production. It is, of course, possible that more agricultural land will be brought into production but a 2011 UN FAO report suggested that most of the land that can be farmed on a medium-term basis is already being farmed and that a

quarter of farmland is already highly degraded. Between 1961 and 2009 the the agricultural area increased by 12% while food output rose by 150%.¹

We have ranked the 25 countries from least to most secure in agricultural land per person terms. On that basis, Egypt is the least agriculturally secure of the 25 countries with just 0.02 hectares of agricultural land per person

by 2050. That compares with 0.04 hectares now with a 65% growth in population to 151.1 million by 2050 resulting in the reduction of farmland per person. Japan is the second least agriculturally secure in our sample with 0.04 hectares of farmland per person. This figure should increase marginally over the next 35 years because

of an expected drop in population.

Table 4: Area of agricultural land per person in 25 key countries 2015 to 2050

Total area

sq. km

Ag area as

% of total

Ag. Area

sq. km

Ha/head

in 2015

Ha/head

in 2030

Ha/head

in 2050

% Chge

2015:50

2050 Index of ag land security. From least to

most secure. Ha/head

China 9388211 54.8 5144740 0.374 0.363 0.382 +2.1 Egypt 0.024

India 2973190 60.3 1792834 0.137 0.117 0.105 -22.9 Japan 0.042

USA 9147420 44.7 4088897 1.271 1.149 1.051 -17.3 Bangladesh 0.05

Indonesia 1811570 31.2 565210 0.219 0.191 0.175 -20.1 Philippines 0.084

Brazil 8358140 33 2758186 1.327 1.206 1.158 -12.8 Pakistan 0.087

Pakistan 770880 35.1 270579 0.143 0.110 0.087 -39.0 Vietnam 0.096

Nigeria 910770 79.1 720419 0.395 0.274 0.181 -54.3 India 0.105

Bangladesh 130170 70.1 91249 0.057 0.049 0.045 -20.4 DR of Congo 0.134

Russian Fed. 16376870 13.1 2145370 1.495 1.547 1.668 +11.6 Indonesia 0.175

Japan 364560 12.5 45570 0.036 0.038 0.042 +17.8 Nigeria 0.181

Mexico 1943950 54.9 1067229 0.840 0.720 0.652 -22.4 Ethiopia 0.194

Philippines 298170 41.6 124039 0.123 0.100 0.084 -32.1 Germany 0.224

Vietnam 310070 35 108525 0.116 0.103 0.096 -17.1 UK 0.228

Ethiopia 1000000 36.5 365000 0.367 0.264 0.194 -47.3 Italy 0.243

Egypt 995450 3.6 35836 0.039 0.031 0.024 -39.4 China 0.382

Germany 348540 47.8 166602 0.206 0.210 0.224 +8.3 Turkey 0.401

Iran 1628550 30.2 491822 0.622 0.556 0.533 -14.2 France 0.406

Turkey 769630 49.9 384045 0.488 0.438 0.401 -17.9 Poland 0.438

DR of Congo 2267050 11.5 260711 0.337 0.217 0.134 -60.4 Iran 0.533

France 547561 52.7 288565 0.448 0.424 0.406 -9.5 Mexico 0.652

UK 241930 71 171770 0.265 0.245 0.228 -14.1 USA 1.051

Italy 294140 46.7 137363 0.230 0.232 0.243 +5.8 Brazil 1.158

Poland 306220 47.4 145148 0.376 0.390 0.438 +16.5 Canada 1.483

Canada 9093510 7.2 654733 1.822 1.621 1.483 -18.6 Russian Fed. 1.668

Australia 7682300 52.8 4056254 16.923 14.242 12.109 -28.4 Australia 12.109

Source: UN and World Bank


We have marked the number of countries that will have less than 0.1 hectare of agricultural land by 2050 in red.

There are six in total – up from just three in 2015, with the Philippines, Pakistan and Vietnam added to the list. Some important Asian countries are agriculturally insecure including Bangladesh, the Philippines, Pakistan and

India with scores around 0.1 hectare per person by 2050. These countries will become more insecure as their populations grow over the next 35 years. So the amount of agricultural land per person in India, for example, is expected to drop by 22.9% from 2015 to 2050.

The greatest falls in agricultural security will occur in Africa with the amount of farmland per person in the

Democratic Republic of the Congo expected to fall by 60.4% to 0.13 ha/person and a halving of the amount of farmland per person in Nigeria.

A few countries in the sample should become more secure over the 35 year period as their populations shrink. Perhaps the most significant is the Russian Federation who should see the amount of agricultural land per person increase by nearly 12% to 1.67 hectares/person even without bringing new farmland into production. The

agricultural land area per person should also increase in Germany, Poland and Italy as their populations decline.

Of the 25 countries only five may have more than one hectare of agricultural land per person – USA, Brazil, Canada, the Russian Federation and Australia. Currently the largest agricultural land area is in China at 5.145 million square kilometres followed by the USA at 4.088 million sq km, Brazil at 2.758 million sq km and the

Russian Federation at 2.154 million sq km.

Arable land per person While the amount of agricultural land is important, the amount of arable land per person is vital as it is this land

that will bear the burden of feeding the most people and should have the most potential to increase production. We have used a similar calculation for arable land as we did for agricultural land with figures based on 2012

arable land data from UN FAOSTAT (see table on next page). Using this calculation, Egypt remains the most insecure, although it has a high percentage of its land as arable land which will give it some security. In contrast, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has gone from being the eighth most insecure country when judged on an

agricultural land per person basis to the second most when seen on an arable land per person basis at just 0.036 hectares a person. The challenges for the DRC and other African countries will be to see if they can bring more of

their agricultural land into arable production or increase yields to compensate. By 2050 14 of the 25 countries will have less than 0.1 hectares of arable land per person by 2050 (marked in red).

Only India and Nigeria will join the list. A number of the countries have a high proportion of their agricultural land in arable production already with

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Egypt, German, Poland and Canada all with more than 70% of their agricultural land in arable production. That might limit their ability to increase production considerable over the coming years.

China, Brazil, Mexico, the DRC and Australia are the only ones in the world with less than 30% of their agricultural land made up of arable land.

The country with the greatest amount of arable land is India at 156,000 square kilometres, closely followed by the USA at 155,000 sq km. The only other countries to have more than 100,000 square kilometres of arable land are China and the Russian Federation.

Only two countries are expected to have more than one hectare of arable land per person by 2050 – Canada and

Australia. Australia has the lowest percentage of arable land compared to agricultural land at less than 12%. ¹ Reported at http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/nov/28/un-farmers-produce-food-population

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/nov/28/un-farmers-produce-food-population


Table 5: Area of arable land per person in 25 key countries 2015 to 2050

Arable land in sq km % of ag land

Ha/head in 2015

Ha/head in 2030

Ha/head in 2050

% Chge 2015:50

2050 Index of arable land security. From least to most secure. Ha/head

China 106521 20.7 0.077 0.075 0.079 +2.1 Egypt 0.019

India 156200 87.1 0.119 0.102 0.092 -22.9 DRC 0.036

USA 155108 37.9 0.482 0.436 0.399 -17.3 Philippines 0.037

Indonesia 23500 41.6 0.091 0.080 0.073 -20.1 Bangladesh 0.038

Brazil 72605 26.3 0.349 0.318 0.305 -12.8 Japan 0.040

Pakistan 21185 78.3 0.112 0.086 0.068 -39.0 Vietnam 0.057

Nigeria 35000 48.6 0.192 0.133 0.088 -54.3 Pakistan 0.068

Bangladesh 7675 84.1 0.048 0.041 0.038 -20.4 Indonesia 0.073

Russian Fed 119750 55.8 0.835 0.864 0.931 +11.6 China 0.079

Japan 4246 93.2 0.034 0.035 0.040 +17.8 Ethiopia 0.081

Mexico 23132 21.7 0.182 0.156 0.141 -22.4 UK 0.082

Philippines 5545 44.7 0.055 0.045 0.037 -32.1 Nigeria 0.088

Vietnam 6400 59.0 0.068 0.061 0.057 -17.1 India 0.092

Ethiopia 15346 42.0 0.154 0.111 0.081 -47.3 Italy 0.126

Egypt 2800 78.1 0.031 0.024 0.019 -39.4 Mexico 0.141

Germany 11834 71.0 0.147 0.149 0.159 +8.3 Germany 0.159

Iran 17709 36.0 0.224 0.200 0.192 -14.2 Iran 0.192

Turkey 20577 53.6 0.262 0.235 0.215 -17.9 Turkey 0.215

DR of Congo 7000 26.8 0.091 0.058 0.036 -60.4 France 0.257

France 18291 63.4 0.284 0.269 0.257 -9.5 Brazil 0.305

UK 6212 36.2 0.096 0.089 0.082 -14.1 Poland 0.330

Italy 7118 51.8 0.119 0.120 0.126 +5.8 USA 0.399

Poland 10925 75.3 0.283 0.294 0.330 +16.5 Russian Fed 0.931

Canada 45915 70.1 1.278 1.137 1.040 -18.6 Canada 1.040

Australia 47113 11.6 1.966 1.654 1.407 -28.4 Australia 1.407

Source: UN, UN FAO and World Bank


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Production Consumption Population

Grain production Grains are crucial for feeding the world either as wholegrains, flour, processed product or feeding animals for consumption. Every month for more than 30 years the US Department of Agriculture has estimated global grain

production, consumption, stocks and trade. Its main dataset of total grains include wheat, coarse grains (including corn/maize) and rice.

Since 1985 production and consumption of grains have risen steadily with output

largely keeping up with use. In 1985 the world produced 1.663

billion tonnes of grains and consumed 1.601 billion tonnes. Jump forward 30 years and

production had risen by 49.2% and consumption was up 55.1%. During those 30 years

the world population rose by 49.3% to 7.262 billion people

meaning that the world’s farmers were able to keep up with demand.

There are signs that the rate of production and consumption is increasing. This may have profound implications for the world grain

market over the coming years. Production in 1994 was 4.7% higher than in 1985, while consumption was up 10.0% due to a 16.4%

increase in the population.

1995 was a year when production was unusually low, so we have used 1996 as a base year. In that year production was at 1.831

billion tonnes. By 2005 it had risen by 6.3% to 1.955 billion tonnes with consumption up 10.9% to 1.999 billion tonnes. The population

had grown by 11.9% in that time to 6.514 billion people.

The growth in population between 2006 and 2015 was similar at 11.5% to 7.349 billion tonnes. But those people were consuming more grains as consumption rose by 21.6% to 2.282 billion tonnes. Farmers rose to the challenge

of producing more grain harvesting 26.2% more grain in the ten years to 2015 than they did in the ten years to 2005.

What is striking is the ability of farmers across the world to produce more grain at very short notice when demand and price demonstrate the need for more grain. So between 2003 and 2004 production jumped by 9.4% from

1.820 billion tonnes in 2003 to 1.991 billion tonnes in 2004, an increase of 171 million tonnes in the one year. Between 2007 and 2008 production increased from 2.072 billion tonnes to 2.208 billion tonnes, a total of 136 million tonnes or 6.7%. Meanwhile, between 2012 and 2013 production rose by 9.2% from 2.228 billion tonnes to

2.432 billion tonnes, a difference of 204 million tonnes.


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Consumption at 317kg/hd/yr



Grain consumption Looking at the average grain consumption per head of population (for all human, livestock and industrial uses), there is evidence that people have increased their grain consumption since the middle of the 2000s. In 1985

average consumption was 329 kilograms per head per year. By 2003 consumption had fallen by 8.5% to an average of 301 kg/head/year, but since then it has increased by 10.9% to a peak of 338

kg/head/year. Over the period the average consumption has been 317 kg/head/year. It is likely that in 1985 a much greater percentage of

the grain consumed was in grain, flour or primarily processed form. In 2015 more grain is

likely to be fed to livestock. Using current consumption figures, it is possible

to develop a number of scenarios predicting world grain consumption up to 2050. If consumption is at the 30 year average of

317kg/hd/yr then by 2050 3.083 billion tonnes of grain will be consumed, 24.1% more than consumed in 2015. Consumption at current rates of 338kg/hd/yr would put consumption at 3.195 billion tonnes or 28.6% more than

in 2015 or an increase of 0.8% a year averaged over the period. If consumption per person increases by 20% between 2015 and 2050 then the average consumptiuon would be

406kg/hd/yr. This would result in total consumption of 3.945 billion

tonnes, an increase of 58.6% on the 2015 figure or a 1.7% increase a year. Even this higher consumption figure

would result in a smaller annual increase in demand than in the 30 year period from 1985 to 2015 which

was at 1.8% a year on average when averaged across the period.

Grain prices Grain prices are partly determined by the amount of grain that is available for sale. That is measured by the stocks to use ratio – the percentage of grain that is available compared to its use. Over the last 30 years the ratio has averaged 18.1%. There have only been three years when the ratio has been at 15% or lower – 1995, 1997 and

2007. The lowest ratio experienced was in 1995 when the ratio dropped to just 13.3%. In those years of very low stocks prices have peaked with notable price rises in 1995, 2007 and 2012.

There have been eight years in the last 30 years when the stock to use ratio was more than 20% - 1986 and 1987, 2001, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2015. The years when the stocks were at their highest were in 1986 (22.5%)

and 2001 (22.2%). Recently stocks have gone into uncharted territory with three years in a row where the ratio has been above 20%.

The only previous time when there were two years running when stocks were above the 20% level was in 1986 and 1987. The frequency of years when stocks are above 20% is also revealing. In the 1990s there were no years when the level was above 20%. In the 2000s there were just two years – 2001 and 2009, but since 2010 four of

the last six years have had a stock level above 20% meaning that five out of the last seven years have had stocks above 20%.


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Stock to use ratio % Linear (Stock to use ratio %)

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Stock to use ratio % Wheat in US$/tonne

Prices respond to higher

stocks by falling, so the lowest prices of the last 30

years have been in the years when stocks have been high or rising. The most dramatic

example of this is between 2005 to 2008. In 2005 the average wheat price was

US$135/tonne, a year later it had risen by 47% to

US$198/tonne before soaring by 65% to US$326/tonne in 2007, but a year later the

value had fallen by 43% to US$186/tonne.

There is a definite pattern to stocks that has emerged over the last 30 years. So from a stock peak in 1986 stocks slipped rapidly in the next two years, they then rose more gradually until 1992 before slipping to a 30 year low in

1995. Over the next six years stocks rose to the 2001 peak before declining to 2007 when widespread concern about falling production and rising prices led to a lot of media and political attention about food security.

As a result production increased with significant investment in farming across the world. Since then production has increased gradually to the current historically high stock levels. There is also evidence that stocks are increasing over time. On a linear trendline basis stocks started in 1985 at 17.5% by 2015 they had risen to 18.8%.

Grain supply conclusions Current prices are at ten year lows making production unprofitable for many. This is likely to have an impact on production in coming years as growers cut back plantings. The intervention of significant weather events in key growing regions is also likely over the coming years affecting output and hitting stocks. That will inevitably lead to

increased prices.


The task facing farmers over the coming 35 years is a major one, but arguably certainly not impossible. Feeding

another 2.376 billion people by 2050 without increasing the amount of farmland in production significantly will take skill, dedication and sensitivity. Current high stock levels of grain may be welcomed by consumers, governments and food processors as it leads

to lower prices, but for they are not welcomed by farmers as they make prodcution unprofitable. There needs to be more attention paid to consumption levels of grain and other crops with production more

closely matched to demand. More and more grain is consumed over the years because of the increasing population, but total consumption is also influenced by grain consumption per head. It is likely that annual

production will not have to increase by the same rate as it did in the last 35 years. If it does then there will be an oversupply of grains which could affect profitability of production. The danger of greater unprofitably is that farmers will not be able to invest in more sustainable and efficient production systems which could ultimately

lead to production falling behind demand, very high prices and the danger of lack of supply, particularly among the poorest members of the world’s population.


Urbanisation It is not just important how many people live in the world, but where they live. It is only in the last ten years that the world has crossed from being predominantly rural to predominantly urban. That process of urbanisation

continues. In its 2014 World Urbanisation Prospects, the UN predicts that the world went from being 43% urban in 1990 to 54% in 2014 and it expects it to be 66% urban by 2050.

As with population growth, the greatest rates of urbanisation are taking place in Asia and Africa. The proportion of town dwellers in Asia is expected to double from 1990 to 2050 to 64% of the total, although the rate of urbanisation in the continent is expected to drop to half what it was between 1990 and 2014 in the next 35 years.

The proportion of China’s population who is urban is expected to increase by nearly 200% to an expected 76% of the population living in towns and cities by 2050. But that rate of urbanisation is slowing from a rapid 4.5% a year

between 1990 and 2014 to a more modest 1.2% over the next 35 years when averaged across the period. Indian urbanisation is taking place at a slower rate than China, but, importantly, the rate is increasing.

Urbanisation grew at a rate of 1.0% between 1990 to 2014 to 32% of the population. By 2050 half the population is expected to be urban with the rate increasing by 1.6% a year when averaged over the 36 year period.

Around 40% of the African population now lives in towns or cities, up from 31% in 1990 with 56% expected to be urban by 2050. The rate of urbanisation remains strong. It is expected to increase by 1.1% a year over the next 35

years, only marginally lower than the 1.2% of the last 24 years. The rate of urbanisation in Nigeria, Africa’s largest country by population, is slowing and is expected to be at 1.2% a year in the next 35 years, half the rate it was in the 1990 to 2014 period.

Urbanisation in Europe, North and South America and Oceania has largely already taken place with around 70% to

80% of those populations now urban with some growth to 85%+ expected over the next 35 years.

Table 6: Urbanisation levels and rates 1990-2050

% urban 1990

% urban 2014

% urban 2050

% Change 1990-50

Urbanisation %/year 1990-50

Urbanisation %/yr 1990-2014

Urbanisation %/yr 2014-2050

World 43 54 66 +53.5 +0.9 +1.1 +0.6

Asia 32 48 64 +100.0 +1.7 +2.1 +1.0

China 26 54 76 +192.3 +3.2 +4.6 +1.2

India 26 32 50 +92.3 +1.5 +1.0 +1.6

Africa 31 40 56 +80.6 +1.3 +1.2 +1.1

Nigeria 30 47 67 +123.3 +2.1 +2.4 +1.2

Europe 70 73 82 +17.1 +0.3 +0.2 +0.4

UK 78 82 89 +14.1 +0.2 +0.2 +0.2 Latin America & Caribbean 71 80 86 +21.1 +0.4 +0.5 +0.2

Brazil 74 85 91 +23.0 +0.4 +0.6 +0.2

North America 75 81 87 +16.0 +0.3 +0.3 +0.2

USA 75 81 87 +16.0 +0.3 +0.3 +0.2

Oceania 71 71 74 +4.2 +0.1 +0.0 +0.1

Source: World Urbanization Prospects, UN. 2014 Revision. Note: %/year figures averaged over period.

Urbanisation impacts on agriculture in a number of ways. Larger cities can compete for resources such as land,

water and labour; farm produce has to be moved further distances from where it is produced to where it is consumed and eating habits can change as fresh products are not so readily available or people become

wealthier. These changes can lead to increased consumption of food and greater demand for food, but in the longer term there is also the possibility that individual consumption falls as people do fewer or less manual jobs.


Urbanisation is not the only driver in increasing yields with greater use of technology, improved seed and the use

of artificial fertilisers all playing a role in increasing output per hectare. However, historically productivity has increased in countries that have urbanised as the pressure to produce feed for a market that is more distant increases.

This part of the report looks at the historic effect of urbanisation in terms of food supply, consumption and increased agricultural productivity. We have chosen six representative and important countries to illustrate

historical changes. They are – China, India, USA, Nigeria, Brazil and the United Kingdom. We are using UN population figures, World Bank urbanisation figures and UN FAOSTAT supply per head figures as a guide to

consumption.

China According to UN FAOSTAT figures, calorie availability has increased significantly (41%) since 1981. Alongside the rapid urbanisation and population growth in China over the last 35 years, there has also been strong growth in

the supply and consumption of meat and dairy products. But this has been accompanied by stable or even declining consumption of grains such as rice and wheat. Rice supply per head peaked in the mid 1980s and has fallen by 8.5% since then.

Wheat supply peaked in the 1990s and has actually slipped by 19.1% since then. The supply or use of corn, oilcrops and sugar rose by around 50% between 1981 and 2013, but remain below 10kg/head/year for each

commodity. The increase in supply and consumption of meat and dairy has been massive with meat supply per head up by more than 330% since 1981 – the equivalent of 10.5% a year. The increase in dairy supply has been

even more dramatic at 1447.4% or 45.2% a year with a massive increase in supply from the early 2000s onwards.

Table 7: Urbanisation, food supply and consumption in China

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2013 % change

1981-11/13 Av %/yr

‘81-11/13*

Urbanisation % 20.0 24.0 27.0 32.0 37.0 44.0 51.0 54.0 +170.0 +5.2

Population million 987.8 1061.9 1153.2 1221.1 1268.3 1302.3 1336.7 1367.5 +38.4 +1.2

Kcal/head/day 2178.0 2433.0 2444.0 2704.0 2821.0 2886.0 3080.0

+41.4 +1.4

Rice kg/hd/yr 112.4 125.7 110.2 116.2 117.2 114.4 119.9 117.2 +4.3 +0.1

Wheat kg/hd/yr 63.2 76.1 78.4 78.4 72.5 67.6 63.4 63.4 +0.3 0.0

Corn kg/hd/yr 4.5 4.5 4.6 7.8 6.6 6.6 7.4 6.8 +51.1 +1.6

Oilcrops kg/hd/yr 5.3 5.6 4.5 6.5 6.9 5.9 7.2 8.2 +54.7 +1.7

Sugar kg/hd/yr 4.3 5.9 7.2 6.9 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.2 +44.2 +1.4

Meat kg/hd/yr 14.0 18.7 25.4 34.6 43.8 50.0 56.8 61.1 +336.1 +10.5

Dairy kg/hd/yr 1.9 3.1 4.2 5.7 8.7 21.1 28.6 29.4 +1447.4 +45.2

Notes: calorie and crop figures are FAO supply estimates. 2013 urbanisation and population figures relate to 2014. Rice figures are for

paddy equivalent supply and dairy for whole milk equivalent. Source: World Bank, UN & UN FAOSTSAT. Note: * Averaged over period

Table 8: Chinese population, crop yields and meat production

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2013 % change

1981-2011/13

Urbanisation % 20 24 27 32 37 44 51 54 +170.0

Population million head 987.8 1061.9 1153.2 1221.1 1268.3 1302.3 1336.7 1367.5 +38.4

Kcal/head/day 2178 2433 2444 2704 2821 2886 3080 na +41.4

Rice t/ha 4.3 5.3 5.6 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.7 6.7 +55.0

Wheat t/ha 2.1 3.0 3.1 3.7 3.8 4.7 4.8 5.1 +139.8

Meat production tonnes 15.4 22.1 32.6 45.8 58.4 68.7 79.3 85.2 +451.6

Source: UNFAOSTAT


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Chart 10:China urbanisation, population and production. 1981=100

Urbanisation Population Kcal/head/day

Rice yield Wheat yield Meat production

The response to the increase in demand for food in China has been a considerable increase in the output of the

country’s farmers. So while the population of the country rose by 38% between 1981 and 2013, rice yields were up 55% and wheat yields up 140%. Average wheat yields of 5 tonnes a hectare are now similar to many of the main European growing countires. There was also a 451.6% increase in meat production to more than 85 mil lion

tonnes.

India Despite the Indian population jumping by nearly 83% since 1981, the availability of calories per head has still increased by 19.4% in that time. Unlike China, meat does not feature strongly in the Indian diet with supply per

head actually slipping over the last 25 years. In contrast, the supply of dairy (whole milk) per head has increased by 79% and India is now the world’s largest producer of dairy products. There has also been an increase in the supply of sugar and vegetable oils, although the increase in the availability of rice and wheat has been more

moderate.

Table 9: Urbanisation, food supply and consumption in India

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2013

% change 1981-11/13

Av %/yr ‘81-11/13*

Urbanisation % 23.0 25.0 27.0 27.0 28.0 30.0 31.0 32.0 +39.1 +1.2


Kcal/head/day 2056.0 2160.0 2297.0 2344.0 2333.0 2334.0 2455.0 na +19.4 +0.6

Rice kg/hd/yr 95.1 102.4 115.1 112.0 105.6 106.1 106.2 104.2 +9.6 +0.3

Wheat kg/hd/yr 45.6 52.9 60.3 58.1 62.2 58.0 58.9 60.6 +32.9 +1.0

Corn kg/hd/yr 7.8 7.7 6.0 5.7 6.4 6.9 6.5 6.3 -19.4 -0.6

Oilcrops kg/hd/yr 4.1 4.1 6.7 7.1 5.5 6.9 6.4 7.8 +89.6 +2.8

Sugar kg/hd/yr 7.8 11.2 14.3 15.5 18.0 17.5 18.8 20.9 +169.3 +5.3

Meat kg/hd/yr 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.1 3.7 -0.5 0.0

Dairy kg/hd/yr 29.4 41.0 38.3 42.0 38.6 40.9 53.3 52.8 +79.4 +2.5




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Chart 11: India urbanisation, population and production. 1981=100


Rice yield Wheat yield Meat production

Wheat supply increased by nearly a third between 1981 and 2013 with oilcrop supply up nearly 90% and sugar

supply up 170%. Rice supply rose by just 9.6% as people increasingly turned to different crops and to dairy. The response to the need for more food has been impressive. Rice yields have increased by 84.7% to an average

of 3.6 tonnes/hectare, while wheat yields have also almost doubled to 3.2t/ha. There has also been a 129% increase in meat production to 6.2 million tonnes.

Table 10: Indian population, crop yields and meat production

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2013

% change 1981-2011/13

Urbanisation % 23 25 27 27 28 30 31 32 +39.1

Population million head 684.9 759.6 838.2 920.6 1006.3 1091.0 1173.1 1251.7 +82.8

Kcal/head/day 2056 2160 2297 2344 2333 2334 2455 na +19.4

Rice t/ha 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.6 +84.7

Wheat t/ha 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.2 +93.3


Source: UNFAOSTAT

Nigeria Nigeria is one of the world’s fastest growing countries with the population increasing by 143% between 1981 and 2013 and expected to continue to grow at around 3% a year for the next 35 years. That rapid increase in

population has been accompanied by rapid urbanisation with around half of Nigerians now urban.

Nigerians have increased their calorie intake by more than 50% in the last 30 plus years, but unlike in other countries they have done so by eating more crops and not by rapidly increasing meat and dairy intake. Traditional crops such as cassava and sorghum still play a vital part in the diet of many Nigerians with cassava intake up more

than 50% between 1981 and 2013, while sorghum intake has slipped. Other crops have gained with corn intake up 340% and wheat up 28% over ther 32 year period. Oilcrop supply has increased by 55%, but sugar supply has dropped by nearly 10%. There has been a 4% drop in meat supply and a 24% decline in dairy supply.


Table 11: Urbanisation, food supply and consumption in Nigeria

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2013

% change 1981-11/13

Av %/yr ‘81-11/13*

Urbanisation % 23 26 30 33 36 40 44 47 +104.3 +3.2


Kcal/head/day 1881 2008 2339 2556 2613 2725 2706 na +43.9 +1.3

Cassava kg/hd/yr 78.6 77.9 143.5 153 137.7 124.2 124.2 118.9 +51.3 +1.6

Sorghum kg/hd/yr 31.2 43.8 37.9 46.2 39 38.7 33.7 30.6 -1.9 -0.1

Corn kg/hd/yr 7.4 23.6 32.3 27.8 19.7 22.5 31.1 32.7 +341.9 +10.4

Wheat kg/hd/yr 16.2 12.4 5.7 8.2 17.0 22 24.5 20.8 +28.4 +0.9

Oilcrops kg/hd/yr 4.5 3.3 3 6 6.8 8.6 7.1 7.0 +55.6 +1.7

Sugar kg/hd/yr 11.2 5.8 5.6 5.8 10.4 8.7 8.8 10.1 -9.8 -0.3

Meat kg/hd/yr 9.6 8.6 7.6 8.6 9.2 8.4 9.5 9.2 -4.2 -0.1

Dairy kg/hd/yr 6.7 2.6 3.1 2.4 4.3 6.1 5.4 5.1 -23.9 -0.7


paddy equivalent supply and dairy for whole milk equivalent. Source: World Bank, UN & UN FAOSTSAT. Note: * Averaged over period There is a massive challenge for Nigeria in sustaining its growing population. Despite greater plantings and consumption of less traditional crops such as wheat, yields have fallen with the 2013 yield only 38% of the 1981

yield. Corn yields are up along with cassava yields, but there has been a drop in sorghum yields. Meat output has more than doubled, but is still only a minimal 1.5 million tonnes.

Table 12: Nigerian population, crop yields and meat production

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2013

% change 1981-2011/13

Urbanisation 23 26 30 33 36 40 44 47 +104.3

Population 74.8 84.9 96.7 109.7 123.9 141.2 160.3 181.6 +142.8

Kcal/head/day 1881 2008 2339 2556 2613 2725 2706 na +43.8

Cassava yield t/ha 9.17 11.3 10.19 10.66 9.6 12 11.21 13.95 +52.1

Sorghum yield t/ha 16.2 10.5 9.69 11.44 11 13.5 12.21 12.18 -24.8

Wheat yield t/ha 2.6 2.0 1.2 2.0 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.0 -61.5

Maize yield t/ha 1.65 1.27 1.13 1.33 1.4 1.82 1.63 2.0 +21.2


Source: UNFAOSTAT

0

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100

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200

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300

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2014

Chart 12: Nigeria urbanisation, population and production. 1981=100


Cassava yield Sorghum yield Wheat yield

Maize yield Meat production


USA The USA has one of the highest calorie intake rates of any country in the world, but there is evidence that consumption has peaked. In 2006 average calorie supply in the USA was 3787kcal/head/day, but by five years later (latest available figures) it had fallen by 3.9%.

The biggest declines appear to be taking place in meat and dairy consumption, something that will have

significant impact on the demand for feed grains. Meat supply per head was up 8.4% between 1981 and 2011, but by the later date it was down 6.7% on the 2006 peak. New data for 2013 should be available soon and it will be of much interest to see if the decline in meat and dairy consumption has continued.

Table 13: Urbanisation, food supply and consumption in USA

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2013

% change 1981-11/13

Av %/yr ‘81-11/13*

Urbanisation % 74 75.0 78.0 78.0 79.0 80.0 81.0 81.0 +9.5 +0.3

Population million 227 237.9 249.6 226.3 282.2 295.5 309.3 321.3 +41.4 +1.2

Kcal/head/day 3218 3351 3522 3587 3709 3787 3639 na +13.1 +0.4

Corn kg/hd/yr 8.1 11.8 13.4 13.7 13.4 12.7 12.5 na +54.3 +1.6 Wheat kg/hd/yr 69.8 75.8 81.6 87.6 86.8 83.9 79.5 na +13.9 +0.4 Oilcrops kg/hd/yr 6 4.5 5.9 4.8 5.8 5.0 6 na 0.0 0.0 Sugar kg/hd/yr 38.1 28.9 30.5 31.5 30.4 32.8 30.5 na -19.9 -0.6 Meat kg/hd/yr 108.5 110.6 114.3 117.8 120.9 126.0 117.6 na +8.4 +0.3 Dairy kg/hd/yr 135.5 140.2 128.4 118.4 137.1 115.5 111.2 na -17.9 -0.5 Notes: calorie and crop figures are FAO supply estimates. 2013 urbanisation and population figures relate to 2014. Rice figures are for paddy equivalent supply and dairy for whole milk equivalent. Source: World Bank, UN & UN FAOSTSAT. Note: * Averaged over period

The last 30 years have seen a significant increase in yields in the USA, although only at rates that just keep up with the increase in population. Wheat yields are up 36.6% to 3.2t/ha and corn yields now top 10t/ha, an increase of

46%. Oilcrop yields are up 47% and meat production has risen by 71.1% allowing the USA to export a significant proportion of what it produces.

Table 14: USA population, crop yields and meat production

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2013 % change

1981-2011/13

Urbanisation % 74 75.0 78.0 78.0 79.0 80.0 81.0 81.0 +9.5

Population million head 227 237.9 249.6 226.3 282.2 295.5 309.3 321.3 +41.4

Kcal/head/day 3218 3351 3522 3587 3709 3787 3639 na +13.1

Wheat t/ha 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.2 +36.6

Corn t/ha 6.8 7.5 6.8 8.0 8.7 9.4 9.2 10.0 +45.6

Oilcrops t/ha 3.5 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.2 +47.0


Source: UNFAOSTAT


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160

180

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2014

Chart 13: USA urbanisation, population and production. 1981=100

Urbanisation Population

Kcal/head/day Wheat

Corn Oilcrops

Meat production

Brazil Brazil’s population has increased by more than two thirds over the last 35 years with calorie intake up by 26%. There is little scope for more urbanisation in the country because 85% of Brazilians are now city dwellers. There

has been increased consumption of corn and wheat, but the greatest gains have been in meat and dairy consumption. Dairy consumption on a per head basis is now greater than the US and meat consumption is 83% of US meat consumption. Sugar consumption per head has fallen by 16% over the last 35 years. Brazilian Meat

production has increased by more than 360% in the last 35 years, with significant gains in crop yields too.

Table 15: Urbanisation, food supply and consumption in Brazil

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2013 % change

1981-11/13 Av %/yr

‘81-11/13*

Urbanisation % 66 71 75 78 82 83 85 85 +28.8 +0.9


Kcal/head/day 2601 2684 2777 2840 2892 3096 3286

+26.3 +0.6

Corn kg/hd/yr 47.4 47.7 44.2 46.2 49.4 52.2 53.5 53.0 +11.9 +0.4

Wheat kg/hd/yr 22.1 22.5 21.7 18.6 19.1 25.0 24.3 28.0 +26.8 +0.8

Oilcrops kg/hd/yr 5.0 4.5 6.1 6.9 14.3 18.0 18.4 17.4 +247.0 +7.5

Sugar kg/hd/yr 47.1 47.4 48.3 49.6 37.5 39.8 39.6 39.6 -15.9 -0.5

Meat kg/hd/yr 40.2 43.9 52.6 70.3 76.4 77.9 93.0 97.6 +142.5 +4.3

Dairy kg/hd/yr 70.9 74.4 85.1 105.3 103.1 118.0 142.4 141.4 +99.5 +3.0

Notes: calorie and crop figures are FAO supply estimates. 2013 urbanisation and population figures relate to 2014. Rice figures are for paddy equivalent supply and dairy for whole milk equivalent. Source: World Bank, UN & UN FAOSTSAT. Note: * Averaged over period

Table 16: Brazil population, crop yields and meat production

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2013 % change

1981-2011/13

Urbanisation 66 71 75 78 82 83 85 85 +28.8

Population 121.1 135.7 149.4 161.9 174.3 186.0 195.8 204.3 +68.7

Kcal/head/day 2601 2684 2777 2840 2892 3096 3286 +26.3

Soybeans 1.76 1.45 1.55 2.25 2.8 2.38 3.12 2.93 +66.5

Wheat 1.15 1.45 1.42 1.83 1.95 1.59 2.66 2.75 +139.1

Meat production 5.585 6.198 8.545 12.351 15.965 20.441 24.312 26.011 +365.7

Source: UNFAOSTAT


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250

300

350

400

450

500

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2014

Chart 14: Brazil urbanisation, population and production. 1981=100


Soybeans yield Wheat yield Meat production

UK Like the USA, UK food consumption could also have peaked. Supply of corn and sugar per head declined between 1981 and 2011 and there was a 17% drop in dairy consumption over that time. There was an increase in wheat,

oilcrop and meat consumption but for all those products supply in 2011 was lower than in previous years. Total calories per day were also down in 2011 compared to 2006. UK yields have increased steadily over the last 35

years with wheat yields up 28%, oilcrop yields up 10% and meat production up by 22%.

Table 17: Urbanisation, food supply and consumption in UK

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2013 % change

1981-11/13 Av %/yr

‘81-11/13*

Urbanisation % 79 78 78 78 79 80 82 82 +3.8 +0.1

Population millions 56 56.6 57.4 58.2 59.1 60.5 62.3 64.1 +13.9 +0.4

Kcal/head/day 3091 3212 3210 3270 3402 3440 3414 +10.4 +0.3

Wheat kg/hd/yr 80.52 83.86 82.63 86.37 92.21 97.21 96.91 na +20.4 +0.7

Corn kg/hd/yr 3.23 3.24 3.19 3.45 3.39 3.31 2.93 na -9.3 -0.3

Oilcrops kg/hd/yr 3.04 3.73 3.53 4.11 4.28 3.83 4.02 na +32.2 +1.0

Sugar kg/hd/yr 42.37 40.41 40.38 38.4 38.29 30.81 38.94 na -8.1 -0.3

Meat kg/hd/yr 69.3 71.66 72.51 73.13 78.49 85.71 82.46 na +19.0 +0.6

Dairy kg/hd/yr 139.57 133.72 122.89 120.93 120.91 120.16 115.29 na -17.4 -0.6



Table 18: UK population, crop yields and meat production

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2013 % change

1981-2011/13

Urbanisation 79 78.0 78.0 78.0 79.0 80.0 82.0 82.0 +3.8

Population 56 56.6 57.4 58.2 59.1 60.5 62.3 64.1 +13.9

Kcal/head/day 3091 3212 3210 3270 3402 3440 3414 na +10.4

Wheat t/ha 5.8 7.0 7.2 8.1 7.1 8.0 7.7 7.4 +27.6

Oilcrops t/ha 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.1 +10.0


Source: UNFAOSTAT


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20

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160

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2014

Chart 15: UK urbanisation, population and production. 1981=100


Wheat Oilcrops Meat production


Looking back to look forward. Predictions for future production This section looks at developments in the production and supply of the main agricultural crop, meat and dairy products between 1980 and 2010 and looks forward to possible production and supply between 2015 and 2050.

Calculations are based on data from the UN FAOSTAT website and is matched with UN population estimates.

Agricultural production doubles in 30 years Between 1980 and 2010 the total production of key crops (cereals, sugar cane, vegetables, fruit, potatoes, soya, oilcrops and pulses) plus dairy and meat rose by 103.2% to 7.975 billion tonnes, according to UN FAOSTAT

estimates. FAOSTAT also estimates the amount of supply of key crops, meat and dairy. Supply of those products also rose by 103.4% to 3.781 billion tonnes with per head supply up 29.5% to 542.3kg/head/year. The area to produce the crops was up 28.1% to 1.372 billion hectares.

Cereals remain the largest single category, although supply per head remained stable over the 30 year period. Production rose by 59.8% between 1980 and 2010 with a 63.6% increase in yields resulting in a 2.4% decline in

the area of devoted to cereal crops. Total supply of cereals has risen by 62.0% with a 3.1% increase in supply per head to 147.2kg/head/year. Supply averages 41.9% of production over the 30 year period and that calculation will

be used in our later calculation of future supply and production. Sugar remains the second largest food crop after cereals with production up 130.8% over the 30 years with a

29.1% increase in yields meaning that the area devoted to sugar production has increased by 78.7% to 23.7 million hectares. Over the 30 years the supply of raw sugar has increased by 52.3% to 134 million tonnes, with per head supply up just 0.5% to 20.1kg a year. Supply has averaged 9.8% of production between 1980 and 2010.

Vegetable production increased by 223.1% between 1980 and 2010 to 1.050 billion tonnes with yields up by

48.0% and the area growing vegetables up 118.2% to 55.9 million hectares. The supply of vegetables has risen by 220.6% to 904 million tonnes with supply per head up 107.8% to 133.6kg/head/year.

Fruit production and supply also doubled between 1980 and 2010 to 610 million tonnes with yields up 18.5% to 10.9tonnes/hectare. Supply was up 140.3% to 495 million tonnes with supply per head up 56.4% to 73.2kg/ year.

Supply as percentage of production over the 30 year period is 75.2%. Potato production is up 38.6% to 334 million tonnes, although the area devoted to the crop has remained the

same at 18.8 million hectares because of a 39.1% increase in yields to 17.8tonnes/hectare. Total supply has risen by 86.2% to 229 million tonnes with supply per head up 21.1% to 33.8kg/head/year.

The production of oil crops rose significantly between 1980 and 2010. Soya is the largest single oil crop and also a major protein source for animals. Production of the bean was up 227.2% to 265 million tonnes with yields up

62.5% to 2.6 tonnes/hectare. Supply of beans (excludes oil use) has risen by 53.8% to 10 million tonnes with the supply of oil up 118.2% to 24 million tonnes. The production of other oil crops (including sunflower and rapeseed) jumped by 250% to 172 million tonnes. Yields have risen by 113.3% to 0.64 tonnes/hectare an there was a 64.1%

increase in area to 269.6 hactares. The supply of oilcrops was up 136.6% to 48 million tonnes with supply per head up 53.2% to 7.17kg/head/year. Supply has averaged 35.8% of production.

There was a 70.7% increase in pulse production between 1980 and 2010 to 70 million tonnes, yields increased by a third and the total area devoted to pulses was 78.7 million hectares in 2010. Supply rose by 70.4% with supply

per head up 9.7% to 6.8kg/year. Supply averaged 61.6% of production on average across the 30 years.


Table 19: World production and supply of key crops 1980-2010

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 % change 1980:2010

Population in billions 4.435 4.831 5.263 5.674 6.07 6.454 6.972 +57.2

Total (includes all crop and livestock categories below)

Production in billion tonnes 3.925 Na na na na na 7.975 +103.2

Supply in billion tonnes 1.859 Na na na na na 3.781 +103.4

Kg/head/year supply 419.2 Na na na na na 542.3 +29.5

Area in million hectares 1071.2 1372.5 +28.1

Cereals (includes all major grain types including corn/maize, wheat, rice, barley, rye etc)

Production billion tonnes 1.549 1.821 1.952 1.898 2.06 2.268 2.475 +59.8

Yield tonnes/hectare 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 +63.6

Area in million hectares 704.5 728.4 697.1 677.9 664.5 687.3 687.5 -2.4

Kg/head/year supply 142.8 149.4 149.6 150.6 149.5 146.2 147.2 +3.1

Total supply 0.633 0.722 0.787 0.855 0.907 0.944 1.026 +62.0

Supply as % of production 40.9 39.6 40.3 45.0 44.1 41.6 41.5 41.9% av

Sugar cane (supply refers to sugar cane production only and to raw sugar equivalent for supply)



Area in million hectares 13.3 15.9 17.1 18.6 19.4 19.7 23.7 +78.7

Kg/head/year supply 20 19.7 20.2 19.3 19.6 20 20.1 +0.5

Total supply 0.088 0.094 0.106 0.109 0.118 0.128 0.134 +52.3


Vegetables




Kg/head/year supply 64.3 73.4 78 89.4 113.7 121.7 133.6 +107.8

Total supply 0.282 0.352 0.409 0.505 0.684 0.777 0.904 +220.6


Fruit




Kg/head/year supply 46.8 48 49.3 55 60.9 66.7 73.2 +56.4

Total supply 0.206 0.23 0.259 0.31 0.366 0.427 0.495 +140.3


Potatoes



Area in million hectares 18.8 18.4 17.7 18.3 20.1 19.3 18.8 -0.3


Total supply 0.123 0.133 0.143 0.157 0.196 0.215 0.229 +86.2


Source: UN FAOSTAT & UN. Continues on next page


Table 20: World production and supply of key crops 1980-2010 contd.

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 % change 1980:2010

Soyabeans Production billion tonnes 0.081 0.101 0.108 0.127 0.161 0.215 0.265 +227.2



Kg/head/year supply (bean) 1.48 1.31 1.22 1.56 1.42 1.44 1.47 -0.7

Total supply (beans) 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.010 +53.8

Kg/head/year (oil) 2.52 2.65 2.67 2.76 3.24 3.46 3.51 +39.3

Total supply (oil) 0.011 0.013 0.014 0.016 0.019 0.022 0.024 +118.2%

Bean supply as % of production 8.0 6.8 6.0 6.9 5.3 4.3 3.8 5.9% av

Oilcrops (includes sunflower, rapeseed and other vegetable oilcrops)





Total supply 0.021 0.025 0.029 0.035 0.039 0.043 0.048 +136.6


Pulses





Total supply 0.027 0.03 0.032 0.034 0.035 0.038 0.046 +70.4


Source: UN FAOSTAT & UN

Dairy and meat output 1980-2010 Dairy production increased by 55.9% to 725 million tonnes between 1980 and 2010 with supply up 78.4% to 603

million tonnes meaning that average upply rose by 15.6% to 89kg/head year with supply 78.1% of production on average over the 30 years. Meat production increased by 115.3% to 295 million tonnes over the 30 year period with a 112.7% increase in to 285 million tonnes. Per head supply rose by 37.9% to 42.2kg a year.

Table 21: World production and supply of key livestock products 1980 to 2010

Dairy (milk equivalent)

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 % change 1980:2010


Kg/head/year supply 77 79.1 77.1 76.5 78.3 83.5 89 +15.6

Total supply 0.338 0.379 0.404 0.432 0.471 0.533 0.603 +78.4


Meat



Total supply 0.134 0.151 0.175 0.197 0.224 0.249 0.285 +112.7


Source: UN FAOSTAT & UN


The farming road to 2050 This next section attempts to estimate what production and supply of key crops and livestock products could be between 2015 and 2050 at five year intervals. The calculations have been based on supply rates per head in 2010

and a separate calculation based on the change in supply rates seen between 1980 and 2010. From that two separate production estimates have also been calculated. They are based on the average supply to production ratio seen between 1980 and 2010. This gives totals for predicted use and production and, perhaps more

importantly, the change in percentage terms. The population predictions used in these calculations are the latest median UN figures published in 2015.

It is likely that some will question whether basing future consumption on historic changes in consumption is wise. We argue that it is. The 30 year period between 1980 and 2010 saw signif icant changes in consumption,

urbanisation and production in many key countries including China, India and those of Africa and South America. Consumption per head in developed countries such as those in North America and Western Europe also arguably peaked during the years 1980 to 2010.

The headline figures are that if supply rates remain the same as in 2010 then production and use of all the key crop and livestock products will need to increase by 32.3% (the same as the increase in population) between 2015

and 2050 to 10.498 billion tonnes and 5.392 billion tonnes respectively, a much slower rate of growth than the rate between 1980 and 2010. If use is to increase at the same rate as supply changed over the 30 year period then

use will increase by 62.4% to 6.617 billion tonnes and production will be up 53.3% to 12.160 billion tonnes a year. That would result in supply per head increase of 22.7% to 680.4kg/head/year.

The World Bank and United Nations has previously estimated that in 15 years time the world will need to produce 50% more food than it does today. On our calculations it is likely that the world will only need to produce 15.6%

more food by 2030 than it does now if supply or use remains at 2010 levels. Even at a historic rate of growth, then only 23.5% more food will need to be produced than is produced now.

Although the growth in consumption and production will be slower than it has been in the recent past, it should be stressed, that the world will have to continue to produce an enormous amount of food over the coming years. But for those producing food, the rate of growth in production that will be needed to feed the world is important.

It is likely to be around a 1.5% increase in total food production every year. If any increase in production goes significantly above that rate then it is likely to lead to overproduction and a drop in prices.

The increase in the production and use of cereals is likely to remain muted. Even using the historic scenario, production will have to increase by 35.5% to 3.498 billion tonnes between 2015 and 2050. Sugar production

needs to be a third higher than it is now in the historic scenario at 2.005 billion tonnes. Vegetable output will need to increase by 61.6% to 1.816 tonnes in the historic scenario with the production of fruit needing to more than double to 1.550 billion tonnes. In the historic scenario, potato production will need to increase by 63.8% to

711.5 million tonnes by 2050.

The estimates for soyabean production need to be treated with some caution as they could underestimate any future increase in production. This is because of the historic supply to production ratio used in the calculations with the historic average above the 2010 average. This explains the anomaly that puts 2010 productiuon at 265

million tonnes and estimated 2015 production at just 183.1 million tonnes. Taking that into consideration, we estimate that production in the historic scenario will increase by just 31.2% between 1980 and 2010. Oilcrop production will need to increase by 112.4% to 312.7 million tonnes if supply is to maintain historic growth rates.

The increase in pulse production is estimated at 48.8% using the historic scenario to 120.7 million tonnes.


Table 27: Predicted world use and production of key crops 2015-2050 in million tonnes

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 % change 2015:2050

Population billions 7.349 7.758 8.142 8.500 8.839 9.157 9.454 9.725 +32.3

Total (includes all crop and livestock categories below)

Supply at 2010 rate 4075.3 Na na 4713.6 na na na 5392.9 +32.3

Supply at historic rate 4075.3 Na na 5173.3 na na na 6617.3 +62.4

Production at 2010 rate 7933.7 Na na 9176.2 na na na 10498.6 +32.3

Production at historic rate 7933.7 Na na 9797.7 na na na 12159.9 +53.3

Supply at historic rate kg/hd/yr 554.5 Na na 608.6 na na na 680.4 +22.7

Cereals (includes all major grain types including corn/maize, wheat, rice, barley, rye etc)

Supply at 2010 rate 1081.8 1142.0 1198.5 1251.2 1301.1 1347.9 1391.6 1431.5 +32.3

Supply at historic rate 1081.8 1145.9 1206.6 1264.0 1318.8 1370.8 1420.0 1465.6 +35.5

Production at 2010 rate 2581.8 2725.5 2860.4 2986.2 3105.3 3217.0 3321.3 3416.5 +32.3

Production at historic rate 2581.9 2734.7 2879.8 3016.6 3147.4 3271.6 3389.0 3497.8 +35.5

Sugar cane (supply refers to sugar cane production only and to raw sugar equivalent for supply)

Supply at 2010 rate 147.7 155.9 163.7 170.9 177.7 184.1 190.0 195.5 +32.3




Vegetables

Supply at 2010 rate 981.8 1036.5 1087.8 1135.6 1180.9 1223.4 1263.1 1299.3 +32.3




Fruit

Supply at 2010 rate 537.9 567.9 596.0 622.2 647.0 670.3 692.0 711.9 +32.3




Potatoes

Supply at 2010 rate 248.4 262.2 275.2 287.3 298.8 309.5 319.5 328.7 +32.3




Soyabeans

Supply at 2010 rate 10.8 11.4 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.3 +32.3




Oilcrops

Supply at 2010 rate 52.7 55.6 58.4 60.9 63.4 65.7 67.8 69.7 +32.3




Pulses

Supply at 2010 rate 50.0 52.8 55.4 57.8 60.1 62.3 64.3 66.1 +32.3

Supply at historic rate 50 53.6 57.1 60.5 64.8 68.1 71.3 74.4 +48.8

Production at historic use 81.1 87

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