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www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
World and U.S. Oil and Gas Production and Price Outlook: To Infinity (or at least 2050) and Beyond
Energy and Environment Symposium April 18, 2018 | Rifle, Colorado
by Troy Cook, Senior Global Upstream Analyst, EIA
Show of hands…who here uses EIA data?
Troy Cook, Energy and Environment Symposium, Rifle Colorado April 18, 2018 2
EIA is all about energy data and energy analysis• Data (Statistics)
– Data collection (surveys)
– Data synthesis, curating, presentation (e.g., Excel add-in)
• Analysis– Present and near history
• Disruption analysis
• Drilling productivity report
– Near-term forecasts: STEO
– Longer-term projections
• Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)
• International Energy Outlook (IEO)
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www.eia.gov
The Annual Energy Outlook 2018 (AEO2018) represents a projection of the U.S. energy system to the year 2050
• Projection, not forecast
• Conceptually, represents peak (mode) of conditional probability distribution– No information about shape of distribution is given
– Conditions include existing technologies (largely), current laws and regulations
• Infinitesimally small chance of being “right”– We’ve never been right in the past
– No one has…
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EIA has never correctly predicted the crude oil price
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Average imported crude oil acquisition pricenominal dollars per barrel
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlooks through 2018
Global outlook
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• The effects of assumptions about economic growth on energy consumption are addressed in the High and Low Economic Growth cases. World gross domestic product increases by 3.3%/year from 2015 to 2040 in the High Economic Growth case and by 2.7%/year in the Low Economic Growth case, compared with 3.0%/year in the Reference case
• The High and Low Oil Price cases address the uncertainty associated with the trajectory of world energy prices. In the Low Oil Price case, the price of North Sea Brent crude in 2016 dollars reaches $43/barrel by 2040, compared with $109/barrel in the Reference case and $226/barrel in the High Oil Price case
• Although the graphics in this presentation focus on projections through 2040, this IEO is the first projection to include model results through 2050, which are available on the IEO page of the EIA website; EIA welcomes feedback on the assumptions and results over the period of 2040–50
Troy Cook, Energy and Environment Symposium, Rifle Colorado April 18, 2018
IEO2017 addresses the uncertainty inherent in energy projections by developing side cases focusing on overall energy consumption
7
0255075
100125150175200225250
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
High Oil Price case
Reference case
Low Oil Price case0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Ref RefOil Price
Case
Low High
Liquids
Other
RefOil Price
Case
Low High
World oil prices in three casesreal 2016 dollars per barrel
World energy consumption in three casesquadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Future oil prices are another key source of uncertainty in the projections
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2015 2030 2040
1.7
0.2
1.4
1.5
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Total OECD
Japan
OECD Europe
Canada
South Korea
United States
Mexico/Chile
Australia/New Zealand
3.81.41.6
2.42.6
3.03.93.9
4.35.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Total Non-OECD
Russia
Brazil
Other Europe/Eurasia
Other Americas
Middle East
Africa
Other Asia
China
India
Average annual percent change in real GDP by region, 2015-40
Source: EIA and Oxford Economic Model (March 2017)
Economic growth—a major driver of energy demand—is greater on average in non-OECD countries
Troy Cook, Energy and Environment Symposium, Rifle Colorado April 18, 2018 9
OECD Non-OECD
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Petroleum and other liquids
Natural gas
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Troy Cook, Energy and Environment Symposium, Rifle Colorado April 18, 2018
Energy consumption increases over the projection for all fuels other than coal in the Reference case with renewables being the fastest-growing energy sourceWorld energy consumption by energy sourcequadrillion Btu
10
OutlookPast trend
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Troy Cook, Energy and Environment Symposium, Rifle Colorado April 18, 2018
Although population and per capita output continue to rise, energy and carbon intensity are projected to continue to fall in the Reference case
11
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1990 2015 20400
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 2015 20400123456789
10
1990 2015 20400
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 2015 2040
Populationmillion people
Per capita grossdomestic productthousand dollars
Carbon intensitymetric tons CO2 per billion Btu
Energy intensitythousand Btu per dollar
Non-OECD
OECD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate
OPEC crude and lease condensate
Other liquids
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Liquid fuel supplies increase from 2015 to 2040 with most of the growth occurring in OPEC crude oil and lease condensate
World petroleum and other liquids productionmillion barrels per day 12
48
44
21
47
34
16
Past trend Outlook
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
OECD
Non-OECD
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
World natural gas consumption increases by 43% from 2015 to 2040 in the Reference case largely due to demand growth
World natural gas consumptiontrillion cubic feet 13
Past trend Outlook
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Middle East, the United States, and China account for more than 60% of the world increase in natural gas production
Increase in natural gas production, 2015-40trillion cubic feet 14
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Non-OECD Americas
Canada
Other non-OECD Asia
Africa
Australia and New Zealand
Russia
China
United States
Middle East
0
10
20
30
40
2015 2030 2040 2015 2030 2040 2015 2030 2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Shale gas and tight gas become increasingly important to gas supplies, not only for the United States, but also for China and Canada
Natural gas productiontrillion cubic feet 15
ChinaCanada
Shale gas
Other
United States
Coalbed methaneTight gas
Domestic Overview
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2017projections
High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology
2017projections
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
tight oil
2017history projections
Reference case
other
Crude oil production million barrels per day
Tight oil production remains the leading source of U.S. crude oil production from 2017 – 2050
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0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2017history projections
Southwest
Dakotas/Rocky Mountains
Gulf CoastMidcontinentWest CoastEast
Lower 48 onshore crude oil production by region (Reference case) million barrels per day
The Southwest region leads growth in tight oil production in the Reference case
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-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2017history projections
Low Oil PriceLow Oil and GasResource and Technology
Reference
High Oil Price
High Oil and GasResource and Technology
net imports
net exports
Petroleum net imports as a percentage of product suppliedpercent
In the Reference case, the United States becomes a small net exporter of petroleum on a volume basis from 2029 to 2045
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2017projections
High Oil and Gas Resourceand Technology
Natural gas production by type trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day
Increased U.S. natural gas production is the result of continued development of shale gas and tight oil plays
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2017history projections
Reference
shale gas and tight oil plays
tight gasother Lower 48 onshoreLower 48 offshoreOther (Alaska and coalbed methane)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
05
1015202530354045
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2017projections
Shale gas production by regiontrillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day
Plays in the East lead production of U.S. natural gas from shale resources in the Reference case
21
High Oil and GasResource andTechnology
Troy Cook, Energy and Environment Symposium, Rifle Colorado April 18, 2018
05
1015202530354045
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2017history projections
East
Gulf Coast
rest of U.S.
Reference
020406080100120140160
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2017history projections
High Oil and Gas Resource and TechnologyHigh Oil PriceHigh Economic GrowthReferenceLow EconomicGrowthLow Oil PriceLow Oil and Gas Resource and Technology 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2017history projections
Natural gas productiontrillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day
Natural gas consumptiontrillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day
U.S. natural gas consumption and production increase in most cases with production growth outpacing natural gas consumption in all cases
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2017history projections
Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology
High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology
ReferenceAEO 2017Reference
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2017history projections
Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology
ReferenceHigh Oil and Gas Resource and Technology
AEO 2017 Reference
Dry natural gas productiontrillion cubic feet
Natural gas spot price at Henry Hub 2016 dollars per million British thermal units
Natural gas prices across cases are dependent on resource and technology assumptions
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-14
-7
0
7
14
21
28
-5
0
5
10
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2017history projections
liquefied natural gas (LNG) exportspipeline exports to
CanadaMexico
pipeline imports fromCanada
LNG imports
Natural gas tradetrillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day
The United States is a net natural gas exporter in the Reference case because of continued export growth and import decline
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Eagle Ford (TX)Bakken (MT & ND)Spraberry (TX & NM Permian)Bonespring (TX & NM Permian)Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian)Delaware (TX & NM Permian)Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian)Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY)Haynesville (LA, TX)Utica (OH, PA & WV)Marcellus (PA,WV,OH & NY)Woodford (OK)Granite Wash (OK & TX)Austin Chalk (LA & TX)Monterey (CA)
U.S. tight oil productionmillion barrels of oil per day
U.S. dry shale gas productionbillion cubic feet per day
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources
Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through February 2018 and represent EIA’s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s). Note: Scales are presented at approximate barrel of oil equivalent.
25
0510152025303540455055
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Marcellus (PA, WV, OH & NY)Utica (OH, PA & WV)Permian (TX & NM)Haynesville (LA & TX)Eagle Ford (TX)Fayetteville (AR)Barnett (TX)Woodford (OK)Bakken (ND & MT)Antrim (MI, IN & OH)Rest of US 'shale'
Troy Cook, Energy and Environment Symposium, Rifle Colorado April 18, 2018
EIA Products and informationU.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo
Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly
State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state
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