world bank document · 2016-07-11 · -.3-the average east asian prefers rice to most other foods...
TRANSCRIPT
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This report is restricted to use within the Bank
No .. E 65
RESTRICTED
INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT
PROSPECTS FOR THE MARKETING OF ECUADOREAN RICE
October 5, 1949
Economic Department
Prepared by: Maurice F. Perkins
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TABLE OF CONTENTS .. Page -
I. The "\[orld Position (a) rrorld Production at Prewar Levels .".0. 1 (b) ',\forld Trade Considerably Below Prev>Tar • II 1 (c) Deficit Rice Consum;ing Areas 'Now ConsUriJ.':'
ing More of other Grains \) ••• 0 ..... 9.. 2
II. The Influence of the Far East on Horld Rice Prices (a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
IntenTar Relationship of Rice Prices to that of Wheat 0.'..,.000 •••• 11 ...... 0 ••• 009
Vfueat Agreement Prices and Future Long~ run Rice Prices .1.11 •••••••••••••••••••
Rice Producer Prices Compared llith Selling Prices •••• 0 •••••••••••• 0 ••••
Conclusion as to Long-run Horld Rice Prices ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
III. The Western Hemisphere Position
3
4
4
5
(a) Lilcely Maximum Prices oo .. u ........ o.. 5 (b) Likely Surplus Position in the Western
Hemisphere •• QO...................... 6 (c) Effect of a Surplus on Prices in the
YJestern Hemisphere ••• II., ... ". n'....... 7 (d) Effect of Lov{sr Prices on He stern Hemi;';"
sphere Production Plana 000 •••••• 0 •••• 8 (e) Effect of Preferential Earkets uuoou 9
IV. The Position of Premium Quality Rice (a) Long and Short Grain Rice ••• 0 .•••. 0... 9 (b) Price Differentials for Premium Quality. 10 (c) Actual Export Unit Values Received .0 •• 11 (d) Restricted Harkets for High Quality Rice 12
V. The Ecuadorean Position (a) Ecuadorean Markets •• o.~ ••••.•. i ••••• ~. 13 (b) The QualityFactor ' •• ~O&o.oo ••••• "oo. 14 (c) Prospective Prices for Average Quality
Rice OQ ••••••••••• O •• 3.~ •••••••• ~O •• O 14 (d) Prospective Price~ for Premium Quality
Rice 0 •••• ' •••••••••••••••••••••••• 0. 15 (e) Effect of l'Jon .. Colllpetitive Conditions •• 15
Pl1.0SPECTS FOR THE Vu\.RlillTING OF ECUADOREAN RICE
SU1il!ARY
1. During the interwar period, f.oob. export values of rice in world trade varied from 2 to 4 cents; the 2-cent price represents average quality (the bulk of the rice trade), the 4-cents represents premium quality rice exported from the United states in relatively small quantities compared to total world trade.
20 At the present time, rice export prices f.oob o vary from 7 to 12.5 cents. These high prices are abnonaal and are not expected to continue in the long-run.
3. For the next three or four years" however, prices are expected to average above long-run levels Q
4. In the long-run under competitive conditions rice prices are likely to adjust dormward to a closer relationship vdth the prices of other grains. Compared vlith 'wheat prices fixed under the International -,iheatAgreement, this would mean a price for average quality rice of 2.5 cents f~oobo per pound in the Far East. Such a price is considered liberal as it is roughly 20 percent higher than comparable prewar averages.
5. After allovving for freight charges and the prospect of a large surplus in the Western Hemisphere, the prospect is for a competitive price of 3 cents c .. iof. Hestern Hemisphere import markets, assuming surplus rice can be disposed of elsewhere.
6. Under such conditions Ecuador could be expected to market average quality rice in the ·long ... run.at a price of 2.S cent's.per pound feoQ'b.,.
7e Insofar as Ecuador can improve the quality of her rice above prewar levels and market approximately the qualities the United states ''Nas able to export, a return of 5 cents per pound could be expected. The mary~t for such qualities, however, is more restricted than for average qualities and keen competition could be expected from the United States.
8. Only if Ecuador consistently could produce and market a quality of rice equivalent to the best grade of United States rice, could a return above 5 cents per pound be expectede
PROSPECTS FOR THE MARKETING OF ECUADOBEAN RICE M' " . if
(This paper has been prepared as an attempt to guage the prospects for the marketing of Dcuadorean rice in connection ruth the farm mechalritation project submitted by I.B,E.C. In the absence of information requested from I.B.E.C. regarding the quantity and qualities of rice expected to be marketed by Ecuador as a. result of the project, conclusions ha.ve been reached on the basis of average qualities exported prel.'lar with allowances for :i.mproveroent.)
I. TIC ifORID POSITION
(a) World Production at Pre"iar Levels
The production of rice is largely concentrated in the Far Easto Pro
duction declined to a considerable e:K.tent durinG the 'war but has since largely
recovered:
Table 1.
World Production of Paddy Rice 11 (million metric tons)
Far East Near East Europe (excl. USSR) North America Latin America Africa and Oceania 31
Total
Prewar Average
140.5 1.3 101 1.0 2.0 1Q5
1948/49
1330:7 2.1 1.1 1.7 3.5 2 0 0
14402
1/ FAO estimates; the U.S. Department of Agriculture - estimate Jl948/49 production 2 percent above prewar.
31 Excluding Near East countries,
(b) 'World Trade Considerably Below Prewar
World trade, however, continues to lag far behind prewar levels due
to the failure of production to revive sufficiently in the large exporting
countries-Burma .. Siam, and Indochina". poor transport facilities and the
increase in population in these areas.
- 2.-
Table 2.
International Trade In Rice Willed Basis) (000 metric tons)
Prewar Average 1949 Allocations Exports Imports , ExPorts Imports
Far East Hear East Europe (excl. USSR) North America Latin ~'I.111erica Africa and Oceania ~ Unspecified -
8076 125 183 68 94 18
6267 52
1262 31
364 397 191
2615 348 148 465 217 20 -
2828 81
380 20
277 47
174 - - -Total 8564 8564 3813 381.3 , •
11 Excluding Near East countries.
Noreover, the Far East now (1949) appears as a net importer of some 21.3,000
tons. For a revival in trade to prewar levels production in Burma, Siam,
Indochina, Formosa and Korea in toto 'viII have to exceed pre;;rar levels.
This cannot be expected to take place for anot.ber four or five years at least.
(c) Deficit Rice Consuming Areas Now Cons,uming 1101"6 of other Gr,aip.
Heanwhi1e the rice scarcity in East Asia. (""hiah is a long-term
phenomenon in evidence before the 'Tar) is being partially offset by the intro-
duction of proportionately larger quantities of other foods in the diet,
which are being locally produced" plus the import of other grains, such as
uheat.
Table 30
Supplies of Grain in the Rice Deficit Countries of the Far East I .
(million metric tons)
Rice Other Grains (a) Total I
Prewar Prewar ft'eviar Average 1948/49 Ayeralle 1948/49 Average 1948/49 ....... -- • I •
Production 85.8 82,,5 61()6 64.8 147.4 147.3 Imports 4.5 211>8 103 70 0 5.8 9.8 Exports 0,,2 0.6 0.8 .... Available for
consumptio!l 900 1 85 f1 3 62.3 7l.8 152.4 157<l1 ,$1.1
(a) Excluding millets, so:t;'ghum and bucknheat.
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The average East Asian prefers rice to most other foods due to in-
grained consumption habits. Rice scarcities and high prices, however, have
forced Governments to import less rice and more of other types of grains,
particularly wheat, The consumer, therefore, has been forced to adopt a
more varied diet, to a certain extent,
II~ TIE IlJFLUENCE OF Tm FAR EAST ON WORLD RICE PRICES
(a) Interwar Relationship of Rice Prices to that of Vfueat I
In view of the necessity for substitution in the diet and the obvious
limitations of the average Asiatic consumer in terms of purchasing povler,the
price of rice cannot long remain considerably above the prices of cheaper
foods. It is maintained that the long-term price of rice must adjust itself
more in conformity 1lith the price of wheato This is likely to occur, however,
only under competitive conditions. The market is at present not competitive
as rice still in short supply and the trade is under allocation o Y For
these reasons, rice prices are at present high, as compared \uth substitutes,
The relationship bet'ween the price of rice and other grains in the
Far East has in the past varied \1Jith c hanging relationships between supply and
demand for particular grains at various centres of consumption. On the average
in the large Indian urban centres rice is reported to have enjoyed a premium
of 25 percent over the price of vrheat!'Y This is partially explained by the
fact that milled rice as compared vuth the wheat grain (the foro in 'ldhich wheat
is largely consumed in the Far East) has a 15 percent greater calory value,
thoucih as compared ~~th wheat flour the relationship is about equal pound
for pound;) • t I ..........
1/ Allocations vd.11 be terminated at the end of 1949.· 2/ For the 2P-year average 1920/.39 the price of Australian vfheat laid dorm in - the Orient appX'ox;i.mated 2 cents per pound; this compares with an average
price of 2.1.cents for Siamese rice foo:tb. Siam, as shOl.;n in Table 9. After allovung for freight charges on rice to Oriental import markets (say onehalf cents per pound) the corresponding rice price would be 206 cents per pound or 24 percent above the v1heat price. For the period 1935/.39 the premium on rice was also 2.5 percent.
-4-
(b) YJheat Agreement Prices and Future Long-Run Rice Prices ,
As a method of detenaining the long-run price of rice1! from these
relationships" the prices for wheat laid dovm in the Far East as determined
by the maxima and minima under the International -,!neat Agreement may be taken
as a basis. These vary from a maximum of 3.5 cents for each of the four years
of the Agreement (1949/50 to 1952/53) to a minimum of 205 centsY in the fourth
year,. Considering the long-term average prewar price for 'wheatll the likelihood
is that the minimum price is that which v{ould prevai~ 4 or 5 years ~ence under
competitive conditions, Assuming a 25 percent premium for rice price would
be about 3 cents per pound c.i.f, Assuming a freight charge of one-half cent
per pound from Far Eastern rice exporting countries to Far Eastern importing
countriel?, the resulting f .• o.b .. price, port of export, would be 2.5 cents ..
This represents roughly a 20 percent increase over the prewar long-term average
export value, f.oob. Siam, of 2.1 cents per pound.
(c) Rice Producer Prices Compared rlith Selling Prices
There is no doubt that present rice prices in the Far East could be
cut consideraoly ~~thout affecting producers! costs. Prices to producers from
millers in Siam ranged from 75 to 90 cents (UoS.) per bushel for rough rice in
19400 This represents a milled price of 2&4 to 2.9 cents per pound. The
millers in turn are required to sell to the government at prices ranging from
207 to 3.1 cents per pound depending on grade" The difference between these
latter prices and the present export price of 6.3 cents for No. 1 Tillite repre-
sents largely a profit to the State. Slliular conditions as to prices eJdst
11 The argument as here developed refers toaver~ge quality milled rice as e~ - ported from the Far East vn.thout regard to differentials for premium
qualities; this latter aspect is considered below. Y These represent ce.iof. prices of North American wheat laid dovm in Oriental
consuming markets& Australian wheat vmuld be cheaper due to the freight differential, but the marginal suppliers would be the United States and Canada 0
3/ For the period 1920/39 the average price for wheat in North America ".laS
- ~)l.lO per bushel f.a.b ... compared rdth the minimum price under the Inleat Agreement of ~)1.20 per bushel, all ;in United States currencYG
-5-
in Burma and French Indochina. Under more competitive conditions, therefore,
rice prices could decline considerably vdthout affecting producer returnso
Iioreover, an appreciable expansion in production could take place at present
cost 1eve1so According to the report of the FAO Rice Ueeting at Baguio in
1948, SOLle 6 million hec'tares of rice land had been abandoned at the end of
the r:ar due to a loss of vlOrk animals, disturbed social conditions and lack
of consumers goodsj most of this land has as yet not been brought back into
production, Such land could produce some 8 to 10 million tons of paddy rice,
if rehabilitated, at present cost levelso
(d) ~~g ... Run World Rice Prices
The conclusion to be dra,m from this discussion is that once the acute
shortage stage in rice supply in the Far East is over in terms of effective
demand, under competitive conditions rice prices in that region will level off
in the long-run at roughly 2.5 cents (U.S.) per pound for average grades in
Far Eastern exporting areas o As the proportion of rice consumed in the Western
Hemisphere and the amount moving into commercial channels represent small pro
portions of total world production and trade, the Far Eastern rice market
effectively controls ,,/Orld prices. Under such conditions prices in imp~
markets in the Western Hemisphere cannot rise much above Far East pri~s plus
freight cos~; othendse rice will flow from the Far East irrespective of
supply conditions there, in the absence of inter-goverrunental agreenlelYGS to
control the movement of supplies or the level of prices.
III. THE YffiSTEHN HEHISPHER.E POSITION
(a) Likely llaximum Prices
Conditions ruling in the Far East are thus likely to dictate a long
run maximum price of 305 cents per pound coiof. for average qualities on
,
Western import markets,lI assuw~ng supply and demand o~ th~~ market is in
equ~librium i~thout imports from other areas.
(b) Likely Surplus Position in the Western Hemispher~
The situation in the TJestern Hemisphere, however, precludes such an
equilibrium. Production has risen to the point that in 1948 there was an
e;;:portable sv.rplus of around 387, 000 tons milled; under various plans for
expansion of production (under the assumption of present day prices) in a
number of countries, this surplus may fall to 32$,000 tons milled in 1950/$1
after allovung for a considerable further increase in consumption, particularly
in Brazilo
Production
Table 40
Western Hernisphere Rice Balance (000 metric to~s milled)
Preymr Average ~34 I
Domestic Requirements 2173
1948 321.i8' 2861 -
Estimated 19$0/51 3765 3440 -
Surplus (+) or Doficit (-) - 239 + 387 + 325 -This surplus, hO'VJever, is calculated after the requirements of Uestern Heui-
sppere importers have been satisfied. Import markets in the -~lestern Hemisphere
are likely to require around 330,000 tons in 1950/51:
Table 5. 1950 51
Cuba 221 Canada 30 Br. Hest Indies 35 other North America 11 Vene~uela. . 10 Peru 13 other South America 10 -Total 330
17 On the basis of data supplied by Transportation Section conrerence freight rates from the Far East to the Caribbean area are about one cent per pound for riceo In actual practice contract rates '.!ould likely be lower than thiso
For purposes of the argument l it is assumed how"ever that rates from the Far East to the Caribbean area and to Europe are one cent per pound and from exporting"to importing areas "within "t,he Yfestern Hemisphere, one-halt cent per poundl (although evidence indi~ates that at present conference charges from Ecuador to Cuba is greater than this). .
- 7 -
Against this the exportable quantities, as indicated by individual countries'
production plans, are as followSs
Table 6~
Estimated Western Hemisphere E ortable Surpluses 1950/51 000 metric tons milled)
U.S.Ao Mexico Other North America Colombia Ecuador Paraguay Uruguay Brazil Br. Guiana
Total
435 30 5 8
73 9 8
65 (a) 22 -~
(c) Effect of a Surplus on Prices in the ~lestern Hemisphere
Under such circumstances a prol')ortion of the lIestern Hemisphere
surplus must be marketed abroad. The most lil~ely market would be Europe
lil'here the ruling price would be 3 .. 5 cents o.iofo (2.5 cents fooob. the Far
East or the TIestern Hemisphere" plus one cent freight), as the returns irom
the Far East would only y"ield 2 cents per pound (3 cents c,i.i .. less one
cent ireight). With a maximum price in the Western Hemisphere of 3 .. 5 cents
per pound set by potential competition irom the Far East, as ShOlffi above"
T~'estern Hemisphere ex].:)orters could achieve a return of 3 cents per pound
(3.5 cents less one-half cent freight); this would result in their at-
tempting to maxinize returns by selling as much as possible on this
marlcet. Competition would thus force the Ylestern Hemisphere clJi .. f. price
dOYffi to 3 cents per pound where returns to exporters f.o,b. Ylould be
equalized vdth that obtainable in Europe (i~eo 2.5 cents per pound)~ The , (a) This represents an exportable surplus at near prewar levels compared with
1948 exports of 197,000 tons. The reason ior the reduction is that Brazilian policy is to reduce her dependence on imports oi "wheat by expanding the production and consumption oi rice o To the extent that she iinds this impracticable or that her policy might change vdth a reduction in the import price of wheat, particularly from Argentina, her exportable rice surplus could increase Significantly. In the event oi such an occurrence, the II-estern Hemisphere exportable surplus could expand to some considerable extent.
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effect of a surplus position in the Western Hemisphere, therefore, would be
to force the price below the maximum potential price at which the. Far ~
could compete o
(d) Effect of Lower Prices on TTestern Hemisphere ?roductj_on Plans v • I
If the conclusion that normal yror1d rice prices are likely to fall
below present levels holds true, the size of the ~-restern Hemisphere surplus
may not be as large as estimated above. Some countries in the face of
falling prices may abandon or shorten their expansion plans or presently
active producers may, for reasons of high cost, restrict output. This would
undoubtedly be the case for the United States ,lith its price support and
acreage restriction legislation. As indicated below, the United States
exportable surplus rnight be cut to the size of Cuban and Canadian require-
ments or to 250,000 tons. On the other hand, deficit rice producers (eog~
Cuba) ~~11 in all probability 1vish to maintain present levels of production
as a matter of policy or even increase them should the terms of trade for
their eArports turn unfavourable. Net exporters may attempt to maintain
surpluses in an endeavour to secure foreign exchange. Even if prices should
fall below total costs, the existence of fixed installations for rice pro-
duction such as irrigation facilities, mills and warehouses, as well as a
better local familiarity 1lith rice cultivation may result in a continue.nce
of rice production so long as direct costs are coveredo Because procuction
has increased during a period of scarcity and r~gh prices, it does not
necessarily follow that once these incentives are removed an equivalent
shrinkage will occur, because of the changed factors mentioned above. ~
probability is that for some considerable time there will be a net expo~
able surplus from the Western Hemisphere-as a broad estir!late, after al101''ling
for a reduction in the United States surpluses, say 150,000 tons milled.
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(e) Effect of Preferential N~kets
An examination of certain preferential marl<:ets enjoyed by the United
States and British Guiana vdll reveal that even a reduction in the over-all
Western Hemisphere surpluses to such an extent vdll not improve the position
of other Western Hemisphere exporters to any considerable degree. The British
West Indies market of 35,000 tons is reserved primarily for British Guiana
(22,000 tons exportable surplus)o The United States enjoys a preferential . tariff" a consumer preference and possibly a quota on the Cuban market (221,-
000 tons) and a strong position on the Canadian market. After deducting these
three markets (although recognizing the fact that some sales 'nill be made there
by other exporters), the remaining import requirerr.ents left in the Western
Hemisphere amounts to 44,000 tons against '1ifhich the remaining exporters could
supply 198,000 tons, leaving a surplus of about 154,000 tons which must seek
other markets. A fairly substantial re~uction in production, therefore, is
unlikely to alter the above conclusions as to prices.
IV 4l THE POSITION OF PRELIUlI QUALITY IUCE - -The argument above has been based on an average quality rice. The
resultant conclusions must now be adjusted to show likely returns for quality
rice Q
(a) Lon~ and Short Grain Rice
In general there are t1ilO broad categories of rice--long and short
grain-llhich have some1<"(hat different markets, although the general level of
world prices for both types tend to fluctuate in unison, as ShOl,'ll in Table 7.
Eurltese rice represents short- and Siamese, long-grain rice.
Period
1920/24 1925/29 1930/34 1935/39
Table 7.
Bunna (Small lII'i'iSSpecials)
100 92 46 46
and Bangkok
Thailand Clihite No.1)
100 101 52 u9
- 10-
(b) Price Differentials for Pl~mium Quality
United States rice is usually considered of the highest quality; Far
Eastern rice e::(:ported from Burma" Siam and Indochina is inferior in comparison.
This results more from the quality of the milling and the grading than from
any real inferiority in the inherent quality of the grain. In the follordng
table average price quotations of United states medium and long grain rice of
the best quality is compared with the average qualities of long grain rice ex-
ported from Siam.
Table 8.
Yfuolesale Rice Prices in the United States and Siam (U.S. cents per pound milled rice)
Period
1930/34 AVe 1935/39 1\
1946/47 1947/48 {-W;c 1949
United States Blue R~se (a) Extra Fancy
(Nev.r Orleans) Rexoro (b) EJ(.tra Fancy
, p
No quotations 4~7
Siam (ex mill Bangkok) No. 1 ~:hite (c).
1.6 1.3
(a) M:edium grain rice - about 5 percent brokens (b) Lonj; grain rice - about 5 percent brokens (c) Long grain rice - 25 percent brokens Cd) Includes a flat margin representing state
profits. ( e) Pa:rtly e stima ted.
From the above it is aPparent that the highest quality United States rice
enjoyed a premium considerably above that of average quality rice (here repre
sented by Siamese rice). In spite of this price differential there is a
significant connection bety;een the price of United States rice and that ex-
ported from East Asia:
lIOne of the important factors influencing United States exports has been the price relationship with Asiatic rice in European markets •. Under normal conditions in years past the better quality of United States rice has commanded SUbstantial pre~~ums in European markets.. As the purchasing power in t'onner importing
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countries has declined, however, buyers in those countries have turned to the lower-priced product of the Orient. This price competition has therefore considerably aggravated the inability of the United states! producer to compete vdth the Oriental product and at the same time maintain profitable price levels.
I1Thus from 1927 to 1931 1"-Then the price of American Extra Fancy Blue Rose ranged from 60 to 85 percent above BU1~ No o 2 at London, our exports averaged about 150 million pounds annuallyo From 1932 to 1936, hOllleVer, nhen the price of American rice in London ranged from 114 to 186 percent above Burma No o 2, our exports to Europe averaged 60 million pounds a yearouy
(c) Actual Export Unit Values Received
It must not be taken, however, that the above prices quoted for
United States rice Trere those actually obtained as these represent the maxi-
mum prices for the highest quality whereas ~~e average unit values of United
States exports "{{ere con.siderably below till.s, as is shoTffi in Table 9:
Table 9.
Export Rice Values of :.~i..lled Rice from the enited States.:! Ecuadorwd Sia.m· . -- (UcS" cents per pound I'.o~bo) I ,,---....
Annual Average United States (c) Ecuador Siam
1919 1920/24 Avo 1925/29 !l
1930/34 \I
1935/39 II
1940/44 II
191.~5/48 "
9.2 5.1 4.0 3.1 2.9 5.6 8.9 -
•• 3ftO 3.2 2.2 1.7 5.4
lOcO
-00
20 6 3~1 11.'3 105
.0
(a) 4.2 (b) -20-yr.Avo1920/39 4.1 2.1 Cd) ~ -00 = not available (a) Three-year average (excludes 1948) (b) Three~year average (excludes 1945) (c) Contains small quantities of bro'wn rice (d) Represents a i'veighted average of annual unit
values; a single 20-year unweighted average ie 2~5 cents; the corresponding averages for the United Sta.tes and Siam ShOT. only slight difference.
Y "Hearings Before a. Subcommittee of the Committee on Agriculture and Forestryll, U.S. Senate 76th Congress, June 30, 1939.)
- 12 -
For the average 20-year interwar period, export values may be s aid to have
ranged from 2 to 4 cents per pound. In the case of the United States, it is
recognized that the export value is q. conglomeration of short, medium and long
grain rice.; the Ecuadorean and Siamese rice represent largely long grain rice.,
(d) Restricted l.Iarkets for High Quali.!:? Rice
Although the United States enjoyed the highest prices, her roarlcet in
anyone country was considerably smaller than was the ca.se for the cheaper
Asiatic product, as sho~~ in Table 10.
Table 10.,
Quant~~y and Import Values of Rice Imported Into Venezuela, Cuba} and the Philippines by Country of Origin, 1935739 Average
Exporting CountrjT Quantity {OOO metric tonsj Import Value(a) (U.Socents per lb.)
Ecuador Siam Totar Importing U.S.Ae> Ecuador Siam lIratar'"
U"S.A. ...QountE":f Imports Impor;ts
Venezuela 00 2 0.3 (b) 9,,6 13.9 3.4 2.2 (b) 201 202 Cuba 5501 (0) 1010 0 2180 5 2.6 (c) 1 0 6 109 Philippines 00 1 16.0 46.8 3('10 103 1:)4
(8.) Import statistics for countries shown are on an i.oob. baSiS, port of export, (b) Average for two years only - 1936 and 1939 - no imports for other yearso (c) Hot shmm separately in importing countryts trade returnsll
The above data is on an f.o.b. basis port of export. For the countries shorm,
the demand is largely for lone; grain rice. In all three markets the United
States enjoyed a premium for quality rice but in two--Venezuela and the
Philippines--her market was minute in compa.rison vrith the Siamese and in the
case of Cuba she was aided by a tariff differential of 1.7 cents per poundo~
17P'rior to 1937 the Cuban Government increased the tariff preferent.ial on - American rice through the device of lowering the tariff from 84 cents per
100 pounds to 42 cents per 100 pounds on United States rice and increasing the tariff on rice from all other sources from :0.111 64 per 100 pounds to ~201.3 per 100 pounds/} In 1937, the first year in 1'."hich the concession became effective, from a nominal amount in the previous year shipments Tlere increased to 13, million pounds and in 1938 to 204 million pounds. At the present time not only does the United States enjoy a tariff preference but a quota is established which grants the United States a SUbstantial proportion of the market e
-13 -
Moreover, in order to sell such quantities the qua1,ity imported was po~
and the price lower than that obtained in Venezue1a~d the Phi1ippin~. In
some countries, such as Cuba, inflated incomes at present have resulted in an
increased demand for better quality rice; whether or not this tl~end 1."11.11
continue should the export prices of commodities exported from these areas
fall is problematical, but in the light of United States experience in :::3urope
(see pa~e 10) the likelihood in periods of fa11in3 prices is for the dewand
to shift to cheaper quality rice.
In vievl of the direction of United Ejtates exports during the 1920 1s,
the largest quality rice market apparently existed in Europe o World de-
pressionJ increasing price competition from much cheaper Far Eastern exporters,
and the intensification of colonial preference systems, hOVlever, narroYied these
outlets after 1931. The emergence of the hard currency problem vli11 further
restrict such markets in the future for all countries requiring dollars.
v. TIm ECUADOHEAN POSITION
(a) Ecuadorean Markets
The pre-w"ar markets for Bcuadorean rice and the CArport values
received f .0. b. port of export are shoi'il1 belo1:f:
9uantity and Unit Value of Rice Exported from Ecu~ ~1 Count~J cf Destination 1935/39 Average
Country of Destination
Peru Chile (a) Colombia (b) Venezuela (c) Bolivia Panama (a)
Quantity (000 metric tons)
10.2 1.&6 0.9 0 .. 6 0.3 0.,15
Unit f.o.b. Value (US cents per pound)
1.,5 1;,5 207 2.3 2.,1
Total (5-year average) l2!l5 ~ hl (d)
(a) 3-years only. (b) 4-years only. ( c ) 2-ye:c"rs only. (d) Represents & wei:;hted average of annual unit
values.
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PreVIaI' markets were small and largely confined to immediate areas. The best
quality rice was marketed in Colombia and Venezuela but returns per unit 'v,ere
low'er than that obtained by United States rice. Follo'wing the termination of
Iforld liar II during the present period of acute rice shortages, marl\:ets have
been found in the Far East at lucrative prices. Such conditions are unlikely
to last, hmTever, once the rigid structure of allocations has disappee,l'ed
(scheduled for end 1949) and a greater degree of competition vlith Far Eastern
exporters is encountered.
(b) The Quality Factor
As has been demonstrated above, the problem of the return on
Ecuadorean rice is one of quality; her production is so small in proportion
to the total world market that even a considerable change in exportable
surplus is unlikely to affect the market price, except locally. Ecuador
produces a long grain rice which competes on foreign markets directly T2ith
other long grain producers, c~liefly the United States and Siaf.l, and in-
directly ylith all exporters o In terms of quality, prewar Ecuadorean rice
I'IaS much closer to the Siamese product than the United States r qualities,
as shown by the prices and import values in Table 10 above.
(c) Prospective Prices for Average Quality Rice . -,
In vieY! of the restricted markets offered in Central and South
Lmerican countries as compared nith prevmr, the difficulties involved in
entering restricted marl,ets, such as Cuba and the British ",[est Indies, and
the likely surplus available in the Viestern Hemisphere, a considerable pro
portion of any increased Ecuadorean exportable surplus (as compared ,\-7ith
prewar) most likely vdll have to be sold abroad either in Europe or the
Far East. For average grades, such as produced prewar, the long-run return
f.o.b. Ecuador would likely be 2.5 cents in the Western Hemisphere, 105
- 1.5 -
cents in the Far East, and 2 • .5 cents in Europe, Assuming freight charges!!
to the Far East and Europe were the same (ioe. one cent per pound), Ecuador
rlOuld receive a larger return by marketing her surplus t above what can be
sold in the Uestern Hemisphere, in Europe rather than in the Far East~
(d) Prospective Prices for Premium Quality Rice
The above conclusions are based on the assumption that the qUulity
of Ecuadorean rice in the future '!In.ll approxilnate that of prewar" i.eo
slightly better than the Siamese average. Insofar as Ecuador can imp:cove
the quality of her rice to meet United States l standards, the long-run
average price received would increase. Applying the prevlar differential
for United States as compared 'with Siamese rice" as shovm in Table 9, of
about 95 percent, a return of about 5 cents per pound f.oobo,could be ob
tained. At such price levels, however, it should be emphasized that the
market is relatively limited and the competition from the United States
'would be keen. Insofar as Ecuador consistently could produce and market
rice of the highest quality such as the U.S" rexoro extra fancy grade}
quoted in Table 8, then a higher return than .5 cents could be obtained.
(e) Effect of Non-Competitive Conditions
The above estinates as to price were determined under the as
sumption of competitive conditionso Should restrictive practices prevail
on lIorld price markets, hm'rever" such as the restriction of supply by large
exporting countries or a rice agreeuent .nth the range of prices dete:cmined
by political considerations, the price may well remain above levels dictated
by competitive conditions.
i! See page .5f)