world bank document · boi'!es and bone-meal, fish and animal fertilizers. dno other...
TRANSCRIPT
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ECONOMIO DEPAHTHElJT
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ORT) FEaTI LIZER ampVIE1 (fi th Secial Refe~t-We~ J1ltrope)
Prepared by J Thomsen Lund Agriculture Forestry and Fishery Section Decenber 22 1948
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Summary and Conclusions
Introduction
The Essential Elements in Commercial Fertilizers
PrmJar tvorld Production Trade a no Supply General Production end Supply Nitrogen Phosuhoric Acid Potash
Postvar Outlook and Potenti~li ties General Estimatecc World ProGuction of All Fertilizers Estimated Viorld C~mecity Production Requiements
and Deficits of Nitro8en Fertilizer
Fertilizers nd the European Recovery Program iestern European Requirements Allocations and
Production Fertilizers and Eurouean Crops
The United States as a Possible Source of Sup9ly Farmers Exnenditures for Fertilizer Possibilities for a Decline in Farm Income in
the United States
Figure 1- United States Farmers Expenditures for and Volume of SEiles of Pertilizer and Cesh poundarm Income
1
1 2
2 11
11 - 13
13 - 19
19 - 21
WORrD FERTUIZER REVIEW (With Special Re~m~to Western Europe)
~L[Ry AL1D CONCLUSIONS
1 It is probably true that there has never been a greater tlorld need
for agricultural fertilizer than at present
2 PreltTar average annual lorld production of all commercial plart foods
was about 85 million metric tons
3 Europe led the world in the production and use of total fertilizer
as well as in the use of nitrogen available phosphoric acid
and potash
4 World production of nitrogen fe~tilizers in 195051 is estimated
at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid 5~9 million metric
tons and ~otash 46 million metric tons
5 vlorld production of nitrogen fertilizers in 195051 1Ili1l be about f
17 per cent short of flOrId demand
6 The practical world nitrogen operating capacity for fertilizer
and industrial use of 4middot6 million metric to~s in 1950-51 as esti-
mated by CEEC will not it appears be possible of achievement
7 Western European requirements for nitrogen fertilizers in 194849
are 24 per cent greater tran 194748 and 93 per cent greater than
prelar 195051 requirements are 124 per cent greater than prewar
8 Western European allocations of nitrogen fertilizers in 194849 are
7 per cent greater than 194748 Bnd 44 per cent greater than pre1Tar
9 Western European production of nitrogen fertilizers in 194a49 are
17 per cent greater tOOn 194748 and 31 oer cent greater than ~rerar
10 On a per capita basis requi~ements for nitrogen fertilizer in
194849 is 68 per cent over pr~war allocations are 26 per cent
over orewar and oroduction is 37 per cent over prevar
- 2 -
11 Possibility of more nitrogen fertilizer becoming available from
the United States in 1950 and beyond tgtTi11 be due largely to exshy
pected decline in farm incomes in the United States in 1949 and
beyond
12 In general expenditures for fertilizers in the United States
tend to vary with farmers ability to buy Farmers ability to
buy varies 1IJi th cash farm income
13 Unless the United States is hit by a war emergency there should
be a gradual decline in farm income in the United States in 1949
and beyond
lORID FERTI LIZER REVIEv (Wi th Special Refere~1Ce to lie~tern Europe)
HTTRODUCTION
The use of fertilizer materials as a means of supplementing the natural
food supplies of the soil is of considerable importance among the various factors
involved in the economical production of crops as llltlell as in the proper mtin
tenance of soil fertility VHthout certain elements such as nitrogen phos-
phorus potassium calcium magnesium and some others plants can not live
Wi th inadequate amounts of these elements plants are undernourished and fail
to grow and produce normally Undernourished plants in turn are likely to
mean undernourished mea and animals It is to ~~pply deficiencies in these es-
sential elements that fertilizer materials mus~ be added to the soil
Because fertilizer materials increase the 1Jroduction and im~)rove the quality
of crops they have become an essential element in farming in all countries
practicing modern agricultural methods It is probably true thet there has
never been a greater need than now of aiding farmers to secure maximum returns
from fertilizer materials
THE ESSEliJTIAL EL]vffiDTS IN-QQMlvIERCIAL IiERT LIZERsect
Fertilizer materi~ls are generally understood to be commercially obtainsble
indiVidual materials that contain one or more of the three essential chemical
elements-ni trogen phosphorus and potassium--in such forms that IIlllen the ma-
terials are applied to soils crops may make use of the elements needed for
their processes of growth In European countries~ farmers customarily purchase
raw fertilizer materials singly and apply them separately to the soil In the
United States however it is usual for the fertilizer manufacturers to prepare
mixtures from the raW materials and fOr the farmer to apply the mixed products
to his lane This difference in practice is apparently orimarily the result of
the higher cost of farm labor in the United States
- 2 -
Fertilizer naterials do not consi st of the plant food elements--li trogen
phosphorus and potassium--as such Tl1ey are more or less pure chemiccl cooshy
po~~ds of these elements with other elements or they are complex vegetable or
animal ~aterials The chemical compounds may have been obtained from natural
sources as in the case of Chilean sodium nitrate or manufactured expressly for
fertilizer use as in the case of superphosphate or obtained as bY-yroducts in
the manufacture of other materials as in the case of the ammonium sulphate obshy
tained in the manufacture of metallurgical coke or city gas The vegetable or
animal materials may be of natural origin as in t~e case of guano or obtained
as residues in processes for the utilization of plants and animals as in the
case of cottonseed meal or dried blood or recovered from astes as in the case
of sewage sludge
Fertilizer materials are classed as nitrogenous phosphatic or potassiC
according to hether they contain nitrogen phosphorus or potassium as their
principal or most valuable constituent As is so often the case in the setting
up of classifications some fertilizer materials may be placed in more than one
of these classes~
In the fertilizer trade it is customary to speak of fertilizer nateriels
and mixtures as containing nitrogen phos1)horic acid and potash instead of
nitrogen phosphorus and potassi~~
FRmiAR WORLD PRODVCTION TRADE AlID Su~PLY
General
Information on pre1l1ar 1JOrld production trade and consllrrption of eac of
the three major plant foods--ni trogen phosphor5c acid ane potash-has Ii ttle
value as a basis of estimating current fertilizer requirenents They do serve
however to explain 1I1hy there are acute shortages at the present time their loshy
cation magnitude and significance of possible shortages Such information is
necessary for the planning of postwar rehabilitation programs
- 3 -
Production and Sunpl[
The preJar average annual -JOrld production of all commercial plant foocs
was about 85 million metric tons of 1Jhich 22 million netric tons Jere ni tro-
gen 3 5 million metric tons vlere phosphoric acid and 27 million metric tons
16re potash The corresp)nding values for apparent consunption were 89 201-
3 9 and 26 million metric tons respectively Some 122 million metric tons
of phosphate rock Jere procluced from -hich the principal part of the phosphoric
acid as obteined A)preciable q14lntities hOlever ere supplied by guano
bOIes and bone-meal fish and animal fertilizers Dno other materiC~ls
EuroOe led the forld in the procuction and use of total fertilizers as
fell as in the use of 11itrogen available phosphoric acio and potash not only
did Europe lead the 1Torld on tile basis of tonnage in fertilizer nroduction and
consumption but she also led the 11orld in quanti ties consumed uni t area of
arable land and of arable land Oerhlenent meado1s and Oastures See Tables
1 and 2 belot
Table 1 Apparent PrevJarY Average Annual iforld Consumption of Ccmmercial Plant Foods Per Unit Area of Arable Lando
Geographic Division
Europe Others World
Total Plant Food
(Kg Oer HG~)
1505 75
114
N
(Kg per Ha)
Je8 24 32
lIPrelfar annuel average of 3 recent years
PZOS KzO (Kg ~i ) per ha (Kg per He bull )
65 52 3 6 14 50 3middot2
~able 1 Shov18 that vJhere the world average use of total plant foocl was 114 kg
per hectare of arable land EuroOe consumed 155 kg per hectare Liketrrise
in the consumption of nitrogen available phosphoric acid and potash Europe
led the rest of the world
Table 2 below sholJs the utilization of commercial plnt foods per uni t of
both arable land and permenent meadows and 1astures
4
Table 2 Aparei1t prewlrll Average Annual Ilorld Consumption of COImnercial Plant Foods Per Dni t of Arable Lard and Permanent jJlectdo1Js and Pastures
Geograpi1ic Total lT P205 K20 Division Plant Food -(Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg p ) per J
Europe 67 16 28 2middot3 Others 48 16 2middot3 09 World 59 16 26 L7
lIprm12r annual average of 3 recent years
Table 2 indicates that whereas the JOrld consumption of total plcmt foods
averaged 59 kg per hectare of arable cllld plus permanent meado1s anD 1Jastures
Europe consumed 67 kg per ilectare In the consurnptiol of nitrogen available
phosphoric acid and potash Europe equaled or exceeded the 1torld avorage con-
sumption
Europe as also a net eXporter of esch of these plant fooeS and led in ex-
ports of available phosphoric acid and potash South America -as the only other
net exporter of nitrogen materials
Africa and Forth America lIJere the leading Vorld proclucers of pnoslhate rock
and Europe Was largely dependent upon these sources mostly North Africa for
the rock required in the production of available phosphates South Arrerica and
Asia also exported considerpble phosphoric acid as guano bones and bone-meaL
The world IS notash requirements were supplied principally by Europe and Asia
Nitrogen
Europe including the Soviet Union before the -Jar produced and consumed
more nitrogen than all the rest of the orld Its production 1las fOJr times
that of Asia ancl about five and one-half tines that of either Horth America or
South America Production in lITorth America slightly exceeded that in South
America Pre-rar world production of nitrogen by geogrsphic areas was as follm-rs
- 5 -
Area Rank Production Per CGIL -T~tric tons)
Europe 1 1388197 61~9 Asia 2 346 608 155 lrorth America 3 254104 11middot3 South America 4 247431 11~O Oceenia 5 3846 lt12 t1rica 6 1L~l16 1
tWRLD TOTAL 2 ~41 72_ 10Q0 =
The leading prerar )roducers of nitrogen in order ot their importeEce Vlere
Germsny Chile Japan and the United States Prewar nitrogen production by
these countries l1as ss follows
Country PIoduction Per cent ~~~~-------------7(m~e~t~ric to~u~s~)------~~~~~
Germany 677035 Chile 226557 SaDan 211806
302 101 94
United States 207432 93 Other~ ______________ ~2~1~8~i~9~02 ____________ Lcl2---
~iOR1D TOTAL 2241 7)2 1000 ====~ ~ -~======~~~~~==~====~~~====
The four leading nitrogen 1)rooucing countries produced 59 per cent of the
total ]orld pr00uction 1)rior to the lJar Germany the leading proc1ucer was re-
s1onsible for over 30 ner cent of the world proeuction
Europe including the Soviet Union consumed mora nitrogen before the war
than all the rest of t1e rorld It used three times as much nitrogen as Asia
snd about 3 78 times as much as north America the next largest consumer Prewa
world consumution of n1 trogen by geographic areas Was 8S follows
Area Bank ConSLJIltioll Per c~ni (metriC tons)
Europe 1 1434585 590 Asia 2 469607 193 North America 3 369904 152 Africa 4 94917 3middot9 South A1erica 5 31660 13 Ooeania 6 30438 13
1CRLD TOTAL 2 1 4Jl 1 l14 10O~ j
6 -
Four countries--Germeny United States Japan and France (in that order)-
consumed over 54 per cent of the total vTorld consumption of nitrogen prior to
the War Germany the leading consumer used about the same amount as the
United States and J~lpan combined the next largest consumers PreWar nitroeen
consumution by these countries waS as follows
Countr Comnunntion Per cent ~~~~~------~~(~m~etmiddotricmiddot~t~o~n~s~)~-----~~~~~--
Germany 571384 235 United Stetes 334603 138 Japan 252824 104 France 154770 64 ~O~tl~~e~r~s~~ ________ ~1~21~]~7u~~~3~1 _________ ~4~9~ ____ _ ====~=10=RLD T~=~=L~======2~=4~~1=1~4========~10=O==O=====
Chile Germanl Jorway the Unitec ltingclom and Jian chu-i a led in vCilume
of exports of nitrogen Chile lJorway Manchuria and Yugoslavia exported
8) per cent or more of their Troduction whereas the exports of GerlIlPny lere only
15 to 16 per cent of total production
Only South America and Europe nroduced nitrogen in excess of internal re-
quirements South American exnorts were more thc-n 6 12 times those of Suroue
by volume and re1)resented a high percentage of the entire production 1ltrhereas
Euro-pean eX1)orts -Jere eqUivalent to less than J per cent of production
The Uni ted States although the fourth 1argEst -nro0ucer of nitrogen rltlnked
first in volume of nitrogen irnTJorts Three-eighths of its total nitrogen recuire
ments were obtained from foreign sources nri2cinally from Chile and Can1da
Other large im1)orters were Suain Egynt Den1er~t and Tai1Jan i1 that order
Eurone exceeded all ot~urs in the use of nitrogen Jer unit of arable land and of
arable land and nermanent me8do1vS and 1)astures
Phos1)horic Acid
Euro1)e including the Soviet Union before the war roduced more phosnhoric
acid than 811 the rest of the tvorld It nroduced nearly five-eighths of the
- 7 -
world nroduction of available phosnhoric acid It uroduced hOJever only
one-sixth of the phosphate rock and imported more than three-eighths of the
world nroduction or about 2 14 times its oom uIoduction North America ras
second in volume of production of available pllosphoric acid
The United States was the largest Orelar nroducer of lhospllate rock pro-
ducing one-third of the JOrld total and exporting one-fourth of its output ilie
next largest producer was the Soviet Union followed in order by Tunisia French
Morocco and Naru lhe last three exported 95 to 100 per cent of their production
With the exceution of the Soviet Union nractically all European countries 1n-
cluding the prircipal nroc1ucers of aVailable nhos-cbates obtained 90 ner cent or
more of their 8up1)lies of nhosphate rock from foreign sources Pre1tlar world
production of avai lab Ie -uhOtphori c acid by geographic areas vIas as follows
Area Bank Pod1c tion Per cent (metric tons)
Etlrope I 219 331 621 North America 2 655 5~0 186 Asia 3 339594 96 Oceania 4 257552 7middot3 South Ao-nerica 5 60120 17 Africa 6 24L~45
lJORW 1OTAL ] 230middot~) __ JI)OO -
The principal countries urodlci1g availaole nhosphoric acid -re1trer Iere the
United Stcltes Germeny France the 3elgo-L1~xembourg Economic Gnion and Australit
Prewar availeble uhosuhoric acid nrocluction by these countries was as follows
Courtrl ProQuction Per cent (metric tons)
United Stetes 642642 182 Germany 474700 134 Fr3nce 373898 106 EelEo-Luxembourg 252534 72 Austrelia 2Lr-9554 71 Qthers l2236122~ LV~ 5
~IORLD TOTAL h 530223 1000
- 8
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of avail-
able phosphoric acid before the war It consumed five-eighths of the orld pro-
duction Horth America 1rlaS second in volume of consumption of available pl~os-
Phoric acid Pre18r world consumption of available phosJhoric acid by geocraphic
areas was as follows
Area
EuroOe north America Oceania Asia Africa South America
viLRIJl TQPAI
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6
Conumption __ Per cent (metric tons)
2470614 627 714191 181 351530 89 302098 77
79615 20 24087 Q6
Jmiddot242J~= 100cQ
The United State s 1rIaS the large s t single nre1ar consumer of aVcd lable phcs-
phoric acid followed by Gerr1any Soviet Union Frc-nce and Australia in that
order PreltJar availctble phosphoric acid consumption by t~ese countries Jas as
folloIS
~C~oun~~t~r~~ __________ ~-C~0~n~sym~t1~middoto~n~ ________ ~P~e~r~c~e~n_t~ (metric tons)
675223 564~ 177 386 )731 35)274 249595
United States Germany Sovieii TJlion France Austrlia Others
ifORLD TOTAL 1713136
171 14middot3 98 90 63
1~3 5 1000
Eurone r~nked first as an eX)orter of phosphates other than phosphate rock
but only becCluse she imnorted more then three-eightl1s of the lorld nrocuction of
nhosnhate rock Asia and South Anerica were the only other net eKporters of
phosphates and their volumes approxir1ated t~o-thirds and one-half respectively
that of Eurone The Belgo-Luxembourg Economic Union Fr~l1ce India Japan and
the United Kingdom as countries led in the volume of exports of phosphates other
than nhospha te rock The Belgo Luxembourg Economic Union exported nearly 70 per ce
of its production of available phosphoric aCid
- 9 -
The United States although rankng first as a procucer of available phos-
phoric acid imported considerable quantities of bones bone-mea gt1ano 8nd
ammonium phosphates The largest single importer was Germany Otber large Jn-
porters rere CanadH S1rJi tzerland the Union of South Africa and Firlard
Europe exceeded the rest of the 1trorld in the use of available phosphoric
aec Oer unit area of arable land as Vle11 BS of arab1e land and uermanent
meado1s and pastures
Potash
Eurone including the Soviet Union before tte rar produced nearly 90
ner cent of the vlOrld supply of 1)otash North America and Asia ere tne only
other recorded 1)roducers Pre1rl~r world production of potash by geogrBIJhic areas
was as follows
Area PoduGtion (metric t~ns)
Europe 1 2431067 North America Z 276267 Asia 3 27612 Oceania 0 0 South A~erica 0 0 Africa 0 0
Per cent
889 101 10
The principal country nrocucers of potash prellar lere Germany Frprce
Uni ted States the Soviet Union and Spain Prer potesh production by the
above c01Lltries vias as fo 110s
Country Proellic tion Per cent (net ric tons)
Germeny 1508800 352 Frence 479900 175 Uni ted Stetes 276267 101 Soviet Union 227600 83 Spain 117333 43 Others 122045 46
1iORLD TONIL 2 2 Z14 24 2 1000
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also was the largest consumer of potash
before the war North America WaS second in volume of potash consuneci Prewar
world consumption of potash b~T geographic areaS WaS as follols
Area Rank Consumntion fgtr cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 1 354 779 North ~~erica 2 392~208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 South Am~_Q~ ________ ~6 ____________ ~9~2~2~3~~ __ ~0~~4 __ ---lpoundQRLD TOTAL 2t2plusmn1i-261 1000
Germany Was the largest single prewar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United States France Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption was more than 2 12 ti1es that of t~1e United States 3 34 tbes
that of Franco nearly 5 34 tiJes that of the lTetherlands and mOle than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash consu-TJption by tliese countries vlaS as
follows
Country Conslli1ution ~~~~------------~(~~tric tons)
Gernry Uni ted Stetes France lTetherlords Soviet Union Others ~o~1LD TOTAL
950507 35J424 262365 167447 148250 69268 c 1 -I 2 dmiddotL 20
374 IJ 9 10middot3 66 58
26tL JOOO
Eurone Was the only net exporter of potash before the war The princina1
countries exporting notash were Germany France Spain the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany ex)orted 2 li2 times the quantity exnorted by Frence Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Japan imuorted about 95 per cent of their re-
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of potash
before the uJar North Arlerica was second in volume of potash conS-WJed Preiar
world consumption of potash br geographic areas was as follO18
Area Rank Consypptiol1 Pe~ cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 j 354 779 North America 2 3921208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 ~ Amerilt~a 6 21223 04 ---l[QRLD TOTAL 2t59-1j 61 lOOO
Gennany was the largest single preuJar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United StatesFrAnce Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption W1tS more than 2 12 ti1es thHt of the United States 3 34 times
trat of France nearly 5 34 tiles that of the netherlands and more than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash conslLlltion by these c01lJltries vIas as
follows
Country Qonsum-ption (metric tons)
Germgry 950507 374 United Stetes 353424 139 France 262365 103 11ether umds 167447 66 Soviet Union 148250 58 Others~ ________________ ~6)~~o~~~276~8 ______________ ~2~6~cO --JCRLD TOTAL 251Jl261 JOOO
Europe was the only net exporter of potash before tte war The principal
countries exporting Jotash were Germany France S])~dn the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany e~orted 2 12 tines the qlantity emorted by Prenee Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Janan imported about 95 per cent of their re-
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
Summary and Conclusions
Introduction
The Essential Elements in Commercial Fertilizers
PrmJar tvorld Production Trade a no Supply General Production end Supply Nitrogen Phosuhoric Acid Potash
Postvar Outlook and Potenti~li ties General Estimatecc World ProGuction of All Fertilizers Estimated Viorld C~mecity Production Requiements
and Deficits of Nitro8en Fertilizer
Fertilizers nd the European Recovery Program iestern European Requirements Allocations and
Production Fertilizers and Eurouean Crops
The United States as a Possible Source of Sup9ly Farmers Exnenditures for Fertilizer Possibilities for a Decline in Farm Income in
the United States
Figure 1- United States Farmers Expenditures for and Volume of SEiles of Pertilizer and Cesh poundarm Income
1
1 2
2 11
11 - 13
13 - 19
19 - 21
WORrD FERTUIZER REVIEW (With Special Re~m~to Western Europe)
~L[Ry AL1D CONCLUSIONS
1 It is probably true that there has never been a greater tlorld need
for agricultural fertilizer than at present
2 PreltTar average annual lorld production of all commercial plart foods
was about 85 million metric tons
3 Europe led the world in the production and use of total fertilizer
as well as in the use of nitrogen available phosphoric acid
and potash
4 World production of nitrogen fe~tilizers in 195051 is estimated
at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid 5~9 million metric
tons and ~otash 46 million metric tons
5 vlorld production of nitrogen fertilizers in 195051 1Ili1l be about f
17 per cent short of flOrId demand
6 The practical world nitrogen operating capacity for fertilizer
and industrial use of 4middot6 million metric to~s in 1950-51 as esti-
mated by CEEC will not it appears be possible of achievement
7 Western European requirements for nitrogen fertilizers in 194849
are 24 per cent greater tran 194748 and 93 per cent greater than
prelar 195051 requirements are 124 per cent greater than prewar
8 Western European allocations of nitrogen fertilizers in 194849 are
7 per cent greater than 194748 Bnd 44 per cent greater than pre1Tar
9 Western European production of nitrogen fertilizers in 194a49 are
17 per cent greater tOOn 194748 and 31 oer cent greater than ~rerar
10 On a per capita basis requi~ements for nitrogen fertilizer in
194849 is 68 per cent over pr~war allocations are 26 per cent
over orewar and oroduction is 37 per cent over prevar
- 2 -
11 Possibility of more nitrogen fertilizer becoming available from
the United States in 1950 and beyond tgtTi11 be due largely to exshy
pected decline in farm incomes in the United States in 1949 and
beyond
12 In general expenditures for fertilizers in the United States
tend to vary with farmers ability to buy Farmers ability to
buy varies 1IJi th cash farm income
13 Unless the United States is hit by a war emergency there should
be a gradual decline in farm income in the United States in 1949
and beyond
lORID FERTI LIZER REVIEv (Wi th Special Refere~1Ce to lie~tern Europe)
HTTRODUCTION
The use of fertilizer materials as a means of supplementing the natural
food supplies of the soil is of considerable importance among the various factors
involved in the economical production of crops as llltlell as in the proper mtin
tenance of soil fertility VHthout certain elements such as nitrogen phos-
phorus potassium calcium magnesium and some others plants can not live
Wi th inadequate amounts of these elements plants are undernourished and fail
to grow and produce normally Undernourished plants in turn are likely to
mean undernourished mea and animals It is to ~~pply deficiencies in these es-
sential elements that fertilizer materials mus~ be added to the soil
Because fertilizer materials increase the 1Jroduction and im~)rove the quality
of crops they have become an essential element in farming in all countries
practicing modern agricultural methods It is probably true thet there has
never been a greater need than now of aiding farmers to secure maximum returns
from fertilizer materials
THE ESSEliJTIAL EL]vffiDTS IN-QQMlvIERCIAL IiERT LIZERsect
Fertilizer materi~ls are generally understood to be commercially obtainsble
indiVidual materials that contain one or more of the three essential chemical
elements-ni trogen phosphorus and potassium--in such forms that IIlllen the ma-
terials are applied to soils crops may make use of the elements needed for
their processes of growth In European countries~ farmers customarily purchase
raw fertilizer materials singly and apply them separately to the soil In the
United States however it is usual for the fertilizer manufacturers to prepare
mixtures from the raW materials and fOr the farmer to apply the mixed products
to his lane This difference in practice is apparently orimarily the result of
the higher cost of farm labor in the United States
- 2 -
Fertilizer naterials do not consi st of the plant food elements--li trogen
phosphorus and potassium--as such Tl1ey are more or less pure chemiccl cooshy
po~~ds of these elements with other elements or they are complex vegetable or
animal ~aterials The chemical compounds may have been obtained from natural
sources as in the case of Chilean sodium nitrate or manufactured expressly for
fertilizer use as in the case of superphosphate or obtained as bY-yroducts in
the manufacture of other materials as in the case of the ammonium sulphate obshy
tained in the manufacture of metallurgical coke or city gas The vegetable or
animal materials may be of natural origin as in t~e case of guano or obtained
as residues in processes for the utilization of plants and animals as in the
case of cottonseed meal or dried blood or recovered from astes as in the case
of sewage sludge
Fertilizer materials are classed as nitrogenous phosphatic or potassiC
according to hether they contain nitrogen phosphorus or potassium as their
principal or most valuable constituent As is so often the case in the setting
up of classifications some fertilizer materials may be placed in more than one
of these classes~
In the fertilizer trade it is customary to speak of fertilizer nateriels
and mixtures as containing nitrogen phos1)horic acid and potash instead of
nitrogen phosphorus and potassi~~
FRmiAR WORLD PRODVCTION TRADE AlID Su~PLY
General
Information on pre1l1ar 1JOrld production trade and consllrrption of eac of
the three major plant foods--ni trogen phosphor5c acid ane potash-has Ii ttle
value as a basis of estimating current fertilizer requirenents They do serve
however to explain 1I1hy there are acute shortages at the present time their loshy
cation magnitude and significance of possible shortages Such information is
necessary for the planning of postwar rehabilitation programs
- 3 -
Production and Sunpl[
The preJar average annual -JOrld production of all commercial plant foocs
was about 85 million metric tons of 1Jhich 22 million netric tons Jere ni tro-
gen 3 5 million metric tons vlere phosphoric acid and 27 million metric tons
16re potash The corresp)nding values for apparent consunption were 89 201-
3 9 and 26 million metric tons respectively Some 122 million metric tons
of phosphate rock Jere procluced from -hich the principal part of the phosphoric
acid as obteined A)preciable q14lntities hOlever ere supplied by guano
bOIes and bone-meal fish and animal fertilizers Dno other materiC~ls
EuroOe led the forld in the procuction and use of total fertilizers as
fell as in the use of 11itrogen available phosphoric acio and potash not only
did Europe lead the 1Torld on tile basis of tonnage in fertilizer nroduction and
consumption but she also led the 11orld in quanti ties consumed uni t area of
arable land and of arable land Oerhlenent meado1s and Oastures See Tables
1 and 2 belot
Table 1 Apparent PrevJarY Average Annual iforld Consumption of Ccmmercial Plant Foods Per Unit Area of Arable Lando
Geographic Division
Europe Others World
Total Plant Food
(Kg Oer HG~)
1505 75
114
N
(Kg per Ha)
Je8 24 32
lIPrelfar annuel average of 3 recent years
PZOS KzO (Kg ~i ) per ha (Kg per He bull )
65 52 3 6 14 50 3middot2
~able 1 Shov18 that vJhere the world average use of total plant foocl was 114 kg
per hectare of arable land EuroOe consumed 155 kg per hectare Liketrrise
in the consumption of nitrogen available phosphoric acid and potash Europe
led the rest of the world
Table 2 below sholJs the utilization of commercial plnt foods per uni t of
both arable land and permenent meadows and 1astures
4
Table 2 Aparei1t prewlrll Average Annual Ilorld Consumption of COImnercial Plant Foods Per Dni t of Arable Lard and Permanent jJlectdo1Js and Pastures
Geograpi1ic Total lT P205 K20 Division Plant Food -(Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg p ) per J
Europe 67 16 28 2middot3 Others 48 16 2middot3 09 World 59 16 26 L7
lIprm12r annual average of 3 recent years
Table 2 indicates that whereas the JOrld consumption of total plcmt foods
averaged 59 kg per hectare of arable cllld plus permanent meado1s anD 1Jastures
Europe consumed 67 kg per ilectare In the consurnptiol of nitrogen available
phosphoric acid and potash Europe equaled or exceeded the 1torld avorage con-
sumption
Europe as also a net eXporter of esch of these plant fooeS and led in ex-
ports of available phosphoric acid and potash South America -as the only other
net exporter of nitrogen materials
Africa and Forth America lIJere the leading Vorld proclucers of pnoslhate rock
and Europe Was largely dependent upon these sources mostly North Africa for
the rock required in the production of available phosphates South Arrerica and
Asia also exported considerpble phosphoric acid as guano bones and bone-meaL
The world IS notash requirements were supplied principally by Europe and Asia
Nitrogen
Europe including the Soviet Union before the -Jar produced and consumed
more nitrogen than all the rest of the orld Its production 1las fOJr times
that of Asia ancl about five and one-half tines that of either Horth America or
South America Production in lITorth America slightly exceeded that in South
America Pre-rar world production of nitrogen by geogrsphic areas was as follm-rs
- 5 -
Area Rank Production Per CGIL -T~tric tons)
Europe 1 1388197 61~9 Asia 2 346 608 155 lrorth America 3 254104 11middot3 South America 4 247431 11~O Oceenia 5 3846 lt12 t1rica 6 1L~l16 1
tWRLD TOTAL 2 ~41 72_ 10Q0 =
The leading prerar )roducers of nitrogen in order ot their importeEce Vlere
Germsny Chile Japan and the United States Prewar nitrogen production by
these countries l1as ss follows
Country PIoduction Per cent ~~~~-------------7(m~e~t~ric to~u~s~)------~~~~~
Germany 677035 Chile 226557 SaDan 211806
302 101 94
United States 207432 93 Other~ ______________ ~2~1~8~i~9~02 ____________ Lcl2---
~iOR1D TOTAL 2241 7)2 1000 ====~ ~ -~======~~~~~==~====~~~====
The four leading nitrogen 1)rooucing countries produced 59 per cent of the
total ]orld pr00uction 1)rior to the lJar Germany the leading proc1ucer was re-
s1onsible for over 30 ner cent of the world proeuction
Europe including the Soviet Union consumed mora nitrogen before the war
than all the rest of t1e rorld It used three times as much nitrogen as Asia
snd about 3 78 times as much as north America the next largest consumer Prewa
world consumution of n1 trogen by geographic areas Was 8S follows
Area Bank ConSLJIltioll Per c~ni (metriC tons)
Europe 1 1434585 590 Asia 2 469607 193 North America 3 369904 152 Africa 4 94917 3middot9 South A1erica 5 31660 13 Ooeania 6 30438 13
1CRLD TOTAL 2 1 4Jl 1 l14 10O~ j
6 -
Four countries--Germeny United States Japan and France (in that order)-
consumed over 54 per cent of the total vTorld consumption of nitrogen prior to
the War Germany the leading consumer used about the same amount as the
United States and J~lpan combined the next largest consumers PreWar nitroeen
consumution by these countries waS as follows
Countr Comnunntion Per cent ~~~~~------~~(~m~etmiddotricmiddot~t~o~n~s~)~-----~~~~~--
Germany 571384 235 United Stetes 334603 138 Japan 252824 104 France 154770 64 ~O~tl~~e~r~s~~ ________ ~1~21~]~7u~~~3~1 _________ ~4~9~ ____ _ ====~=10=RLD T~=~=L~======2~=4~~1=1~4========~10=O==O=====
Chile Germanl Jorway the Unitec ltingclom and Jian chu-i a led in vCilume
of exports of nitrogen Chile lJorway Manchuria and Yugoslavia exported
8) per cent or more of their Troduction whereas the exports of GerlIlPny lere only
15 to 16 per cent of total production
Only South America and Europe nroduced nitrogen in excess of internal re-
quirements South American exnorts were more thc-n 6 12 times those of Suroue
by volume and re1)resented a high percentage of the entire production 1ltrhereas
Euro-pean eX1)orts -Jere eqUivalent to less than J per cent of production
The Uni ted States although the fourth 1argEst -nro0ucer of nitrogen rltlnked
first in volume of nitrogen irnTJorts Three-eighths of its total nitrogen recuire
ments were obtained from foreign sources nri2cinally from Chile and Can1da
Other large im1)orters were Suain Egynt Den1er~t and Tai1Jan i1 that order
Eurone exceeded all ot~urs in the use of nitrogen Jer unit of arable land and of
arable land and nermanent me8do1vS and 1)astures
Phos1)horic Acid
Euro1)e including the Soviet Union before the war roduced more phosnhoric
acid than 811 the rest of the tvorld It nroduced nearly five-eighths of the
- 7 -
world nroduction of available phosnhoric acid It uroduced hOJever only
one-sixth of the phosphate rock and imported more than three-eighths of the
world nroduction or about 2 14 times its oom uIoduction North America ras
second in volume of production of available pllosphoric acid
The United States was the largest Orelar nroducer of lhospllate rock pro-
ducing one-third of the JOrld total and exporting one-fourth of its output ilie
next largest producer was the Soviet Union followed in order by Tunisia French
Morocco and Naru lhe last three exported 95 to 100 per cent of their production
With the exceution of the Soviet Union nractically all European countries 1n-
cluding the prircipal nroc1ucers of aVailable nhos-cbates obtained 90 ner cent or
more of their 8up1)lies of nhosphate rock from foreign sources Pre1tlar world
production of avai lab Ie -uhOtphori c acid by geographic areas vIas as follows
Area Bank Pod1c tion Per cent (metric tons)
Etlrope I 219 331 621 North America 2 655 5~0 186 Asia 3 339594 96 Oceania 4 257552 7middot3 South Ao-nerica 5 60120 17 Africa 6 24L~45
lJORW 1OTAL ] 230middot~) __ JI)OO -
The principal countries urodlci1g availaole nhosphoric acid -re1trer Iere the
United Stcltes Germeny France the 3elgo-L1~xembourg Economic Gnion and Australit
Prewar availeble uhosuhoric acid nrocluction by these countries was as follows
Courtrl ProQuction Per cent (metric tons)
United Stetes 642642 182 Germany 474700 134 Fr3nce 373898 106 EelEo-Luxembourg 252534 72 Austrelia 2Lr-9554 71 Qthers l2236122~ LV~ 5
~IORLD TOTAL h 530223 1000
- 8
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of avail-
able phosphoric acid before the war It consumed five-eighths of the orld pro-
duction Horth America 1rlaS second in volume of consumption of available pl~os-
Phoric acid Pre18r world consumption of available phosJhoric acid by geocraphic
areas was as follows
Area
EuroOe north America Oceania Asia Africa South America
viLRIJl TQPAI
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6
Conumption __ Per cent (metric tons)
2470614 627 714191 181 351530 89 302098 77
79615 20 24087 Q6
Jmiddot242J~= 100cQ
The United State s 1rIaS the large s t single nre1ar consumer of aVcd lable phcs-
phoric acid followed by Gerr1any Soviet Union Frc-nce and Australia in that
order PreltJar availctble phosphoric acid consumption by t~ese countries Jas as
folloIS
~C~oun~~t~r~~ __________ ~-C~0~n~sym~t1~middoto~n~ ________ ~P~e~r~c~e~n_t~ (metric tons)
675223 564~ 177 386 )731 35)274 249595
United States Germany Sovieii TJlion France Austrlia Others
ifORLD TOTAL 1713136
171 14middot3 98 90 63
1~3 5 1000
Eurone r~nked first as an eX)orter of phosphates other than phosphate rock
but only becCluse she imnorted more then three-eightl1s of the lorld nrocuction of
nhosnhate rock Asia and South Anerica were the only other net eKporters of
phosphates and their volumes approxir1ated t~o-thirds and one-half respectively
that of Eurone The Belgo-Luxembourg Economic Union Fr~l1ce India Japan and
the United Kingdom as countries led in the volume of exports of phosphates other
than nhospha te rock The Belgo Luxembourg Economic Union exported nearly 70 per ce
of its production of available phosphoric aCid
- 9 -
The United States although rankng first as a procucer of available phos-
phoric acid imported considerable quantities of bones bone-mea gt1ano 8nd
ammonium phosphates The largest single importer was Germany Otber large Jn-
porters rere CanadH S1rJi tzerland the Union of South Africa and Firlard
Europe exceeded the rest of the 1trorld in the use of available phosphoric
aec Oer unit area of arable land as Vle11 BS of arab1e land and uermanent
meado1s and pastures
Potash
Eurone including the Soviet Union before tte rar produced nearly 90
ner cent of the vlOrld supply of 1)otash North America and Asia ere tne only
other recorded 1)roducers Pre1rl~r world production of potash by geogrBIJhic areas
was as follows
Area PoduGtion (metric t~ns)
Europe 1 2431067 North America Z 276267 Asia 3 27612 Oceania 0 0 South A~erica 0 0 Africa 0 0
Per cent
889 101 10
The principal country nrocucers of potash prellar lere Germany Frprce
Uni ted States the Soviet Union and Spain Prer potesh production by the
above c01Lltries vias as fo 110s
Country Proellic tion Per cent (net ric tons)
Germeny 1508800 352 Frence 479900 175 Uni ted Stetes 276267 101 Soviet Union 227600 83 Spain 117333 43 Others 122045 46
1iORLD TONIL 2 2 Z14 24 2 1000
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also was the largest consumer of potash
before the war North America WaS second in volume of potash consuneci Prewar
world consumption of potash b~T geographic areaS WaS as follols
Area Rank Consumntion fgtr cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 1 354 779 North ~~erica 2 392~208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 South Am~_Q~ ________ ~6 ____________ ~9~2~2~3~~ __ ~0~~4 __ ---lpoundQRLD TOTAL 2t2plusmn1i-261 1000
Germany Was the largest single prewar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United States France Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption was more than 2 12 ti1es that of t~1e United States 3 34 tbes
that of Franco nearly 5 34 tiJes that of the lTetherlands and mOle than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash consu-TJption by tliese countries vlaS as
follows
Country Conslli1ution ~~~~------------~(~~tric tons)
Gernry Uni ted Stetes France lTetherlords Soviet Union Others ~o~1LD TOTAL
950507 35J424 262365 167447 148250 69268 c 1 -I 2 dmiddotL 20
374 IJ 9 10middot3 66 58
26tL JOOO
Eurone Was the only net exporter of potash before the war The princina1
countries exporting notash were Germany France Spain the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany ex)orted 2 li2 times the quantity exnorted by Frence Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Japan imuorted about 95 per cent of their re-
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of potash
before the uJar North Arlerica was second in volume of potash conS-WJed Preiar
world consumption of potash br geographic areas was as follO18
Area Rank Consypptiol1 Pe~ cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 j 354 779 North America 2 3921208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 ~ Amerilt~a 6 21223 04 ---l[QRLD TOTAL 2t59-1j 61 lOOO
Gennany was the largest single preuJar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United StatesFrAnce Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption W1tS more than 2 12 ti1es thHt of the United States 3 34 times
trat of France nearly 5 34 tiles that of the netherlands and more than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash conslLlltion by these c01lJltries vIas as
follows
Country Qonsum-ption (metric tons)
Germgry 950507 374 United Stetes 353424 139 France 262365 103 11ether umds 167447 66 Soviet Union 148250 58 Others~ ________________ ~6)~~o~~~276~8 ______________ ~2~6~cO --JCRLD TOTAL 251Jl261 JOOO
Europe was the only net exporter of potash before tte war The principal
countries exporting Jotash were Germany France S])~dn the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany e~orted 2 12 tines the qlantity emorted by Prenee Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Janan imported about 95 per cent of their re-
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
WORrD FERTUIZER REVIEW (With Special Re~m~to Western Europe)
~L[Ry AL1D CONCLUSIONS
1 It is probably true that there has never been a greater tlorld need
for agricultural fertilizer than at present
2 PreltTar average annual lorld production of all commercial plart foods
was about 85 million metric tons
3 Europe led the world in the production and use of total fertilizer
as well as in the use of nitrogen available phosphoric acid
and potash
4 World production of nitrogen fe~tilizers in 195051 is estimated
at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid 5~9 million metric
tons and ~otash 46 million metric tons
5 vlorld production of nitrogen fertilizers in 195051 1Ili1l be about f
17 per cent short of flOrId demand
6 The practical world nitrogen operating capacity for fertilizer
and industrial use of 4middot6 million metric to~s in 1950-51 as esti-
mated by CEEC will not it appears be possible of achievement
7 Western European requirements for nitrogen fertilizers in 194849
are 24 per cent greater tran 194748 and 93 per cent greater than
prelar 195051 requirements are 124 per cent greater than prewar
8 Western European allocations of nitrogen fertilizers in 194849 are
7 per cent greater than 194748 Bnd 44 per cent greater than pre1Tar
9 Western European production of nitrogen fertilizers in 194a49 are
17 per cent greater tOOn 194748 and 31 oer cent greater than ~rerar
10 On a per capita basis requi~ements for nitrogen fertilizer in
194849 is 68 per cent over pr~war allocations are 26 per cent
over orewar and oroduction is 37 per cent over prevar
- 2 -
11 Possibility of more nitrogen fertilizer becoming available from
the United States in 1950 and beyond tgtTi11 be due largely to exshy
pected decline in farm incomes in the United States in 1949 and
beyond
12 In general expenditures for fertilizers in the United States
tend to vary with farmers ability to buy Farmers ability to
buy varies 1IJi th cash farm income
13 Unless the United States is hit by a war emergency there should
be a gradual decline in farm income in the United States in 1949
and beyond
lORID FERTI LIZER REVIEv (Wi th Special Refere~1Ce to lie~tern Europe)
HTTRODUCTION
The use of fertilizer materials as a means of supplementing the natural
food supplies of the soil is of considerable importance among the various factors
involved in the economical production of crops as llltlell as in the proper mtin
tenance of soil fertility VHthout certain elements such as nitrogen phos-
phorus potassium calcium magnesium and some others plants can not live
Wi th inadequate amounts of these elements plants are undernourished and fail
to grow and produce normally Undernourished plants in turn are likely to
mean undernourished mea and animals It is to ~~pply deficiencies in these es-
sential elements that fertilizer materials mus~ be added to the soil
Because fertilizer materials increase the 1Jroduction and im~)rove the quality
of crops they have become an essential element in farming in all countries
practicing modern agricultural methods It is probably true thet there has
never been a greater need than now of aiding farmers to secure maximum returns
from fertilizer materials
THE ESSEliJTIAL EL]vffiDTS IN-QQMlvIERCIAL IiERT LIZERsect
Fertilizer materi~ls are generally understood to be commercially obtainsble
indiVidual materials that contain one or more of the three essential chemical
elements-ni trogen phosphorus and potassium--in such forms that IIlllen the ma-
terials are applied to soils crops may make use of the elements needed for
their processes of growth In European countries~ farmers customarily purchase
raw fertilizer materials singly and apply them separately to the soil In the
United States however it is usual for the fertilizer manufacturers to prepare
mixtures from the raW materials and fOr the farmer to apply the mixed products
to his lane This difference in practice is apparently orimarily the result of
the higher cost of farm labor in the United States
- 2 -
Fertilizer naterials do not consi st of the plant food elements--li trogen
phosphorus and potassium--as such Tl1ey are more or less pure chemiccl cooshy
po~~ds of these elements with other elements or they are complex vegetable or
animal ~aterials The chemical compounds may have been obtained from natural
sources as in the case of Chilean sodium nitrate or manufactured expressly for
fertilizer use as in the case of superphosphate or obtained as bY-yroducts in
the manufacture of other materials as in the case of the ammonium sulphate obshy
tained in the manufacture of metallurgical coke or city gas The vegetable or
animal materials may be of natural origin as in t~e case of guano or obtained
as residues in processes for the utilization of plants and animals as in the
case of cottonseed meal or dried blood or recovered from astes as in the case
of sewage sludge
Fertilizer materials are classed as nitrogenous phosphatic or potassiC
according to hether they contain nitrogen phosphorus or potassium as their
principal or most valuable constituent As is so often the case in the setting
up of classifications some fertilizer materials may be placed in more than one
of these classes~
In the fertilizer trade it is customary to speak of fertilizer nateriels
and mixtures as containing nitrogen phos1)horic acid and potash instead of
nitrogen phosphorus and potassi~~
FRmiAR WORLD PRODVCTION TRADE AlID Su~PLY
General
Information on pre1l1ar 1JOrld production trade and consllrrption of eac of
the three major plant foods--ni trogen phosphor5c acid ane potash-has Ii ttle
value as a basis of estimating current fertilizer requirenents They do serve
however to explain 1I1hy there are acute shortages at the present time their loshy
cation magnitude and significance of possible shortages Such information is
necessary for the planning of postwar rehabilitation programs
- 3 -
Production and Sunpl[
The preJar average annual -JOrld production of all commercial plant foocs
was about 85 million metric tons of 1Jhich 22 million netric tons Jere ni tro-
gen 3 5 million metric tons vlere phosphoric acid and 27 million metric tons
16re potash The corresp)nding values for apparent consunption were 89 201-
3 9 and 26 million metric tons respectively Some 122 million metric tons
of phosphate rock Jere procluced from -hich the principal part of the phosphoric
acid as obteined A)preciable q14lntities hOlever ere supplied by guano
bOIes and bone-meal fish and animal fertilizers Dno other materiC~ls
EuroOe led the forld in the procuction and use of total fertilizers as
fell as in the use of 11itrogen available phosphoric acio and potash not only
did Europe lead the 1Torld on tile basis of tonnage in fertilizer nroduction and
consumption but she also led the 11orld in quanti ties consumed uni t area of
arable land and of arable land Oerhlenent meado1s and Oastures See Tables
1 and 2 belot
Table 1 Apparent PrevJarY Average Annual iforld Consumption of Ccmmercial Plant Foods Per Unit Area of Arable Lando
Geographic Division
Europe Others World
Total Plant Food
(Kg Oer HG~)
1505 75
114
N
(Kg per Ha)
Je8 24 32
lIPrelfar annuel average of 3 recent years
PZOS KzO (Kg ~i ) per ha (Kg per He bull )
65 52 3 6 14 50 3middot2
~able 1 Shov18 that vJhere the world average use of total plant foocl was 114 kg
per hectare of arable land EuroOe consumed 155 kg per hectare Liketrrise
in the consumption of nitrogen available phosphoric acid and potash Europe
led the rest of the world
Table 2 below sholJs the utilization of commercial plnt foods per uni t of
both arable land and permenent meadows and 1astures
4
Table 2 Aparei1t prewlrll Average Annual Ilorld Consumption of COImnercial Plant Foods Per Dni t of Arable Lard and Permanent jJlectdo1Js and Pastures
Geograpi1ic Total lT P205 K20 Division Plant Food -(Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg p ) per J
Europe 67 16 28 2middot3 Others 48 16 2middot3 09 World 59 16 26 L7
lIprm12r annual average of 3 recent years
Table 2 indicates that whereas the JOrld consumption of total plcmt foods
averaged 59 kg per hectare of arable cllld plus permanent meado1s anD 1Jastures
Europe consumed 67 kg per ilectare In the consurnptiol of nitrogen available
phosphoric acid and potash Europe equaled or exceeded the 1torld avorage con-
sumption
Europe as also a net eXporter of esch of these plant fooeS and led in ex-
ports of available phosphoric acid and potash South America -as the only other
net exporter of nitrogen materials
Africa and Forth America lIJere the leading Vorld proclucers of pnoslhate rock
and Europe Was largely dependent upon these sources mostly North Africa for
the rock required in the production of available phosphates South Arrerica and
Asia also exported considerpble phosphoric acid as guano bones and bone-meaL
The world IS notash requirements were supplied principally by Europe and Asia
Nitrogen
Europe including the Soviet Union before the -Jar produced and consumed
more nitrogen than all the rest of the orld Its production 1las fOJr times
that of Asia ancl about five and one-half tines that of either Horth America or
South America Production in lITorth America slightly exceeded that in South
America Pre-rar world production of nitrogen by geogrsphic areas was as follm-rs
- 5 -
Area Rank Production Per CGIL -T~tric tons)
Europe 1 1388197 61~9 Asia 2 346 608 155 lrorth America 3 254104 11middot3 South America 4 247431 11~O Oceenia 5 3846 lt12 t1rica 6 1L~l16 1
tWRLD TOTAL 2 ~41 72_ 10Q0 =
The leading prerar )roducers of nitrogen in order ot their importeEce Vlere
Germsny Chile Japan and the United States Prewar nitrogen production by
these countries l1as ss follows
Country PIoduction Per cent ~~~~-------------7(m~e~t~ric to~u~s~)------~~~~~
Germany 677035 Chile 226557 SaDan 211806
302 101 94
United States 207432 93 Other~ ______________ ~2~1~8~i~9~02 ____________ Lcl2---
~iOR1D TOTAL 2241 7)2 1000 ====~ ~ -~======~~~~~==~====~~~====
The four leading nitrogen 1)rooucing countries produced 59 per cent of the
total ]orld pr00uction 1)rior to the lJar Germany the leading proc1ucer was re-
s1onsible for over 30 ner cent of the world proeuction
Europe including the Soviet Union consumed mora nitrogen before the war
than all the rest of t1e rorld It used three times as much nitrogen as Asia
snd about 3 78 times as much as north America the next largest consumer Prewa
world consumution of n1 trogen by geographic areas Was 8S follows
Area Bank ConSLJIltioll Per c~ni (metriC tons)
Europe 1 1434585 590 Asia 2 469607 193 North America 3 369904 152 Africa 4 94917 3middot9 South A1erica 5 31660 13 Ooeania 6 30438 13
1CRLD TOTAL 2 1 4Jl 1 l14 10O~ j
6 -
Four countries--Germeny United States Japan and France (in that order)-
consumed over 54 per cent of the total vTorld consumption of nitrogen prior to
the War Germany the leading consumer used about the same amount as the
United States and J~lpan combined the next largest consumers PreWar nitroeen
consumution by these countries waS as follows
Countr Comnunntion Per cent ~~~~~------~~(~m~etmiddotricmiddot~t~o~n~s~)~-----~~~~~--
Germany 571384 235 United Stetes 334603 138 Japan 252824 104 France 154770 64 ~O~tl~~e~r~s~~ ________ ~1~21~]~7u~~~3~1 _________ ~4~9~ ____ _ ====~=10=RLD T~=~=L~======2~=4~~1=1~4========~10=O==O=====
Chile Germanl Jorway the Unitec ltingclom and Jian chu-i a led in vCilume
of exports of nitrogen Chile lJorway Manchuria and Yugoslavia exported
8) per cent or more of their Troduction whereas the exports of GerlIlPny lere only
15 to 16 per cent of total production
Only South America and Europe nroduced nitrogen in excess of internal re-
quirements South American exnorts were more thc-n 6 12 times those of Suroue
by volume and re1)resented a high percentage of the entire production 1ltrhereas
Euro-pean eX1)orts -Jere eqUivalent to less than J per cent of production
The Uni ted States although the fourth 1argEst -nro0ucer of nitrogen rltlnked
first in volume of nitrogen irnTJorts Three-eighths of its total nitrogen recuire
ments were obtained from foreign sources nri2cinally from Chile and Can1da
Other large im1)orters were Suain Egynt Den1er~t and Tai1Jan i1 that order
Eurone exceeded all ot~urs in the use of nitrogen Jer unit of arable land and of
arable land and nermanent me8do1vS and 1)astures
Phos1)horic Acid
Euro1)e including the Soviet Union before the war roduced more phosnhoric
acid than 811 the rest of the tvorld It nroduced nearly five-eighths of the
- 7 -
world nroduction of available phosnhoric acid It uroduced hOJever only
one-sixth of the phosphate rock and imported more than three-eighths of the
world nroduction or about 2 14 times its oom uIoduction North America ras
second in volume of production of available pllosphoric acid
The United States was the largest Orelar nroducer of lhospllate rock pro-
ducing one-third of the JOrld total and exporting one-fourth of its output ilie
next largest producer was the Soviet Union followed in order by Tunisia French
Morocco and Naru lhe last three exported 95 to 100 per cent of their production
With the exceution of the Soviet Union nractically all European countries 1n-
cluding the prircipal nroc1ucers of aVailable nhos-cbates obtained 90 ner cent or
more of their 8up1)lies of nhosphate rock from foreign sources Pre1tlar world
production of avai lab Ie -uhOtphori c acid by geographic areas vIas as follows
Area Bank Pod1c tion Per cent (metric tons)
Etlrope I 219 331 621 North America 2 655 5~0 186 Asia 3 339594 96 Oceania 4 257552 7middot3 South Ao-nerica 5 60120 17 Africa 6 24L~45
lJORW 1OTAL ] 230middot~) __ JI)OO -
The principal countries urodlci1g availaole nhosphoric acid -re1trer Iere the
United Stcltes Germeny France the 3elgo-L1~xembourg Economic Gnion and Australit
Prewar availeble uhosuhoric acid nrocluction by these countries was as follows
Courtrl ProQuction Per cent (metric tons)
United Stetes 642642 182 Germany 474700 134 Fr3nce 373898 106 EelEo-Luxembourg 252534 72 Austrelia 2Lr-9554 71 Qthers l2236122~ LV~ 5
~IORLD TOTAL h 530223 1000
- 8
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of avail-
able phosphoric acid before the war It consumed five-eighths of the orld pro-
duction Horth America 1rlaS second in volume of consumption of available pl~os-
Phoric acid Pre18r world consumption of available phosJhoric acid by geocraphic
areas was as follows
Area
EuroOe north America Oceania Asia Africa South America
viLRIJl TQPAI
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6
Conumption __ Per cent (metric tons)
2470614 627 714191 181 351530 89 302098 77
79615 20 24087 Q6
Jmiddot242J~= 100cQ
The United State s 1rIaS the large s t single nre1ar consumer of aVcd lable phcs-
phoric acid followed by Gerr1any Soviet Union Frc-nce and Australia in that
order PreltJar availctble phosphoric acid consumption by t~ese countries Jas as
folloIS
~C~oun~~t~r~~ __________ ~-C~0~n~sym~t1~middoto~n~ ________ ~P~e~r~c~e~n_t~ (metric tons)
675223 564~ 177 386 )731 35)274 249595
United States Germany Sovieii TJlion France Austrlia Others
ifORLD TOTAL 1713136
171 14middot3 98 90 63
1~3 5 1000
Eurone r~nked first as an eX)orter of phosphates other than phosphate rock
but only becCluse she imnorted more then three-eightl1s of the lorld nrocuction of
nhosnhate rock Asia and South Anerica were the only other net eKporters of
phosphates and their volumes approxir1ated t~o-thirds and one-half respectively
that of Eurone The Belgo-Luxembourg Economic Union Fr~l1ce India Japan and
the United Kingdom as countries led in the volume of exports of phosphates other
than nhospha te rock The Belgo Luxembourg Economic Union exported nearly 70 per ce
of its production of available phosphoric aCid
- 9 -
The United States although rankng first as a procucer of available phos-
phoric acid imported considerable quantities of bones bone-mea gt1ano 8nd
ammonium phosphates The largest single importer was Germany Otber large Jn-
porters rere CanadH S1rJi tzerland the Union of South Africa and Firlard
Europe exceeded the rest of the 1trorld in the use of available phosphoric
aec Oer unit area of arable land as Vle11 BS of arab1e land and uermanent
meado1s and pastures
Potash
Eurone including the Soviet Union before tte rar produced nearly 90
ner cent of the vlOrld supply of 1)otash North America and Asia ere tne only
other recorded 1)roducers Pre1rl~r world production of potash by geogrBIJhic areas
was as follows
Area PoduGtion (metric t~ns)
Europe 1 2431067 North America Z 276267 Asia 3 27612 Oceania 0 0 South A~erica 0 0 Africa 0 0
Per cent
889 101 10
The principal country nrocucers of potash prellar lere Germany Frprce
Uni ted States the Soviet Union and Spain Prer potesh production by the
above c01Lltries vias as fo 110s
Country Proellic tion Per cent (net ric tons)
Germeny 1508800 352 Frence 479900 175 Uni ted Stetes 276267 101 Soviet Union 227600 83 Spain 117333 43 Others 122045 46
1iORLD TONIL 2 2 Z14 24 2 1000
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also was the largest consumer of potash
before the war North America WaS second in volume of potash consuneci Prewar
world consumption of potash b~T geographic areaS WaS as follols
Area Rank Consumntion fgtr cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 1 354 779 North ~~erica 2 392~208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 South Am~_Q~ ________ ~6 ____________ ~9~2~2~3~~ __ ~0~~4 __ ---lpoundQRLD TOTAL 2t2plusmn1i-261 1000
Germany Was the largest single prewar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United States France Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption was more than 2 12 ti1es that of t~1e United States 3 34 tbes
that of Franco nearly 5 34 tiJes that of the lTetherlands and mOle than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash consu-TJption by tliese countries vlaS as
follows
Country Conslli1ution ~~~~------------~(~~tric tons)
Gernry Uni ted Stetes France lTetherlords Soviet Union Others ~o~1LD TOTAL
950507 35J424 262365 167447 148250 69268 c 1 -I 2 dmiddotL 20
374 IJ 9 10middot3 66 58
26tL JOOO
Eurone Was the only net exporter of potash before the war The princina1
countries exporting notash were Germany France Spain the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany ex)orted 2 li2 times the quantity exnorted by Frence Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Japan imuorted about 95 per cent of their re-
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of potash
before the uJar North Arlerica was second in volume of potash conS-WJed Preiar
world consumption of potash br geographic areas was as follO18
Area Rank Consypptiol1 Pe~ cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 j 354 779 North America 2 3921208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 ~ Amerilt~a 6 21223 04 ---l[QRLD TOTAL 2t59-1j 61 lOOO
Gennany was the largest single preuJar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United StatesFrAnce Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption W1tS more than 2 12 ti1es thHt of the United States 3 34 times
trat of France nearly 5 34 tiles that of the netherlands and more than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash conslLlltion by these c01lJltries vIas as
follows
Country Qonsum-ption (metric tons)
Germgry 950507 374 United Stetes 353424 139 France 262365 103 11ether umds 167447 66 Soviet Union 148250 58 Others~ ________________ ~6)~~o~~~276~8 ______________ ~2~6~cO --JCRLD TOTAL 251Jl261 JOOO
Europe was the only net exporter of potash before tte war The principal
countries exporting Jotash were Germany France S])~dn the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany e~orted 2 12 tines the qlantity emorted by Prenee Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Janan imported about 95 per cent of their re-
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 2 -
11 Possibility of more nitrogen fertilizer becoming available from
the United States in 1950 and beyond tgtTi11 be due largely to exshy
pected decline in farm incomes in the United States in 1949 and
beyond
12 In general expenditures for fertilizers in the United States
tend to vary with farmers ability to buy Farmers ability to
buy varies 1IJi th cash farm income
13 Unless the United States is hit by a war emergency there should
be a gradual decline in farm income in the United States in 1949
and beyond
lORID FERTI LIZER REVIEv (Wi th Special Refere~1Ce to lie~tern Europe)
HTTRODUCTION
The use of fertilizer materials as a means of supplementing the natural
food supplies of the soil is of considerable importance among the various factors
involved in the economical production of crops as llltlell as in the proper mtin
tenance of soil fertility VHthout certain elements such as nitrogen phos-
phorus potassium calcium magnesium and some others plants can not live
Wi th inadequate amounts of these elements plants are undernourished and fail
to grow and produce normally Undernourished plants in turn are likely to
mean undernourished mea and animals It is to ~~pply deficiencies in these es-
sential elements that fertilizer materials mus~ be added to the soil
Because fertilizer materials increase the 1Jroduction and im~)rove the quality
of crops they have become an essential element in farming in all countries
practicing modern agricultural methods It is probably true thet there has
never been a greater need than now of aiding farmers to secure maximum returns
from fertilizer materials
THE ESSEliJTIAL EL]vffiDTS IN-QQMlvIERCIAL IiERT LIZERsect
Fertilizer materi~ls are generally understood to be commercially obtainsble
indiVidual materials that contain one or more of the three essential chemical
elements-ni trogen phosphorus and potassium--in such forms that IIlllen the ma-
terials are applied to soils crops may make use of the elements needed for
their processes of growth In European countries~ farmers customarily purchase
raw fertilizer materials singly and apply them separately to the soil In the
United States however it is usual for the fertilizer manufacturers to prepare
mixtures from the raW materials and fOr the farmer to apply the mixed products
to his lane This difference in practice is apparently orimarily the result of
the higher cost of farm labor in the United States
- 2 -
Fertilizer naterials do not consi st of the plant food elements--li trogen
phosphorus and potassium--as such Tl1ey are more or less pure chemiccl cooshy
po~~ds of these elements with other elements or they are complex vegetable or
animal ~aterials The chemical compounds may have been obtained from natural
sources as in the case of Chilean sodium nitrate or manufactured expressly for
fertilizer use as in the case of superphosphate or obtained as bY-yroducts in
the manufacture of other materials as in the case of the ammonium sulphate obshy
tained in the manufacture of metallurgical coke or city gas The vegetable or
animal materials may be of natural origin as in t~e case of guano or obtained
as residues in processes for the utilization of plants and animals as in the
case of cottonseed meal or dried blood or recovered from astes as in the case
of sewage sludge
Fertilizer materials are classed as nitrogenous phosphatic or potassiC
according to hether they contain nitrogen phosphorus or potassium as their
principal or most valuable constituent As is so often the case in the setting
up of classifications some fertilizer materials may be placed in more than one
of these classes~
In the fertilizer trade it is customary to speak of fertilizer nateriels
and mixtures as containing nitrogen phos1)horic acid and potash instead of
nitrogen phosphorus and potassi~~
FRmiAR WORLD PRODVCTION TRADE AlID Su~PLY
General
Information on pre1l1ar 1JOrld production trade and consllrrption of eac of
the three major plant foods--ni trogen phosphor5c acid ane potash-has Ii ttle
value as a basis of estimating current fertilizer requirenents They do serve
however to explain 1I1hy there are acute shortages at the present time their loshy
cation magnitude and significance of possible shortages Such information is
necessary for the planning of postwar rehabilitation programs
- 3 -
Production and Sunpl[
The preJar average annual -JOrld production of all commercial plant foocs
was about 85 million metric tons of 1Jhich 22 million netric tons Jere ni tro-
gen 3 5 million metric tons vlere phosphoric acid and 27 million metric tons
16re potash The corresp)nding values for apparent consunption were 89 201-
3 9 and 26 million metric tons respectively Some 122 million metric tons
of phosphate rock Jere procluced from -hich the principal part of the phosphoric
acid as obteined A)preciable q14lntities hOlever ere supplied by guano
bOIes and bone-meal fish and animal fertilizers Dno other materiC~ls
EuroOe led the forld in the procuction and use of total fertilizers as
fell as in the use of 11itrogen available phosphoric acio and potash not only
did Europe lead the 1Torld on tile basis of tonnage in fertilizer nroduction and
consumption but she also led the 11orld in quanti ties consumed uni t area of
arable land and of arable land Oerhlenent meado1s and Oastures See Tables
1 and 2 belot
Table 1 Apparent PrevJarY Average Annual iforld Consumption of Ccmmercial Plant Foods Per Unit Area of Arable Lando
Geographic Division
Europe Others World
Total Plant Food
(Kg Oer HG~)
1505 75
114
N
(Kg per Ha)
Je8 24 32
lIPrelfar annuel average of 3 recent years
PZOS KzO (Kg ~i ) per ha (Kg per He bull )
65 52 3 6 14 50 3middot2
~able 1 Shov18 that vJhere the world average use of total plant foocl was 114 kg
per hectare of arable land EuroOe consumed 155 kg per hectare Liketrrise
in the consumption of nitrogen available phosphoric acid and potash Europe
led the rest of the world
Table 2 below sholJs the utilization of commercial plnt foods per uni t of
both arable land and permenent meadows and 1astures
4
Table 2 Aparei1t prewlrll Average Annual Ilorld Consumption of COImnercial Plant Foods Per Dni t of Arable Lard and Permanent jJlectdo1Js and Pastures
Geograpi1ic Total lT P205 K20 Division Plant Food -(Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg p ) per J
Europe 67 16 28 2middot3 Others 48 16 2middot3 09 World 59 16 26 L7
lIprm12r annual average of 3 recent years
Table 2 indicates that whereas the JOrld consumption of total plcmt foods
averaged 59 kg per hectare of arable cllld plus permanent meado1s anD 1Jastures
Europe consumed 67 kg per ilectare In the consurnptiol of nitrogen available
phosphoric acid and potash Europe equaled or exceeded the 1torld avorage con-
sumption
Europe as also a net eXporter of esch of these plant fooeS and led in ex-
ports of available phosphoric acid and potash South America -as the only other
net exporter of nitrogen materials
Africa and Forth America lIJere the leading Vorld proclucers of pnoslhate rock
and Europe Was largely dependent upon these sources mostly North Africa for
the rock required in the production of available phosphates South Arrerica and
Asia also exported considerpble phosphoric acid as guano bones and bone-meaL
The world IS notash requirements were supplied principally by Europe and Asia
Nitrogen
Europe including the Soviet Union before the -Jar produced and consumed
more nitrogen than all the rest of the orld Its production 1las fOJr times
that of Asia ancl about five and one-half tines that of either Horth America or
South America Production in lITorth America slightly exceeded that in South
America Pre-rar world production of nitrogen by geogrsphic areas was as follm-rs
- 5 -
Area Rank Production Per CGIL -T~tric tons)
Europe 1 1388197 61~9 Asia 2 346 608 155 lrorth America 3 254104 11middot3 South America 4 247431 11~O Oceenia 5 3846 lt12 t1rica 6 1L~l16 1
tWRLD TOTAL 2 ~41 72_ 10Q0 =
The leading prerar )roducers of nitrogen in order ot their importeEce Vlere
Germsny Chile Japan and the United States Prewar nitrogen production by
these countries l1as ss follows
Country PIoduction Per cent ~~~~-------------7(m~e~t~ric to~u~s~)------~~~~~
Germany 677035 Chile 226557 SaDan 211806
302 101 94
United States 207432 93 Other~ ______________ ~2~1~8~i~9~02 ____________ Lcl2---
~iOR1D TOTAL 2241 7)2 1000 ====~ ~ -~======~~~~~==~====~~~====
The four leading nitrogen 1)rooucing countries produced 59 per cent of the
total ]orld pr00uction 1)rior to the lJar Germany the leading proc1ucer was re-
s1onsible for over 30 ner cent of the world proeuction
Europe including the Soviet Union consumed mora nitrogen before the war
than all the rest of t1e rorld It used three times as much nitrogen as Asia
snd about 3 78 times as much as north America the next largest consumer Prewa
world consumution of n1 trogen by geographic areas Was 8S follows
Area Bank ConSLJIltioll Per c~ni (metriC tons)
Europe 1 1434585 590 Asia 2 469607 193 North America 3 369904 152 Africa 4 94917 3middot9 South A1erica 5 31660 13 Ooeania 6 30438 13
1CRLD TOTAL 2 1 4Jl 1 l14 10O~ j
6 -
Four countries--Germeny United States Japan and France (in that order)-
consumed over 54 per cent of the total vTorld consumption of nitrogen prior to
the War Germany the leading consumer used about the same amount as the
United States and J~lpan combined the next largest consumers PreWar nitroeen
consumution by these countries waS as follows
Countr Comnunntion Per cent ~~~~~------~~(~m~etmiddotricmiddot~t~o~n~s~)~-----~~~~~--
Germany 571384 235 United Stetes 334603 138 Japan 252824 104 France 154770 64 ~O~tl~~e~r~s~~ ________ ~1~21~]~7u~~~3~1 _________ ~4~9~ ____ _ ====~=10=RLD T~=~=L~======2~=4~~1=1~4========~10=O==O=====
Chile Germanl Jorway the Unitec ltingclom and Jian chu-i a led in vCilume
of exports of nitrogen Chile lJorway Manchuria and Yugoslavia exported
8) per cent or more of their Troduction whereas the exports of GerlIlPny lere only
15 to 16 per cent of total production
Only South America and Europe nroduced nitrogen in excess of internal re-
quirements South American exnorts were more thc-n 6 12 times those of Suroue
by volume and re1)resented a high percentage of the entire production 1ltrhereas
Euro-pean eX1)orts -Jere eqUivalent to less than J per cent of production
The Uni ted States although the fourth 1argEst -nro0ucer of nitrogen rltlnked
first in volume of nitrogen irnTJorts Three-eighths of its total nitrogen recuire
ments were obtained from foreign sources nri2cinally from Chile and Can1da
Other large im1)orters were Suain Egynt Den1er~t and Tai1Jan i1 that order
Eurone exceeded all ot~urs in the use of nitrogen Jer unit of arable land and of
arable land and nermanent me8do1vS and 1)astures
Phos1)horic Acid
Euro1)e including the Soviet Union before the war roduced more phosnhoric
acid than 811 the rest of the tvorld It nroduced nearly five-eighths of the
- 7 -
world nroduction of available phosnhoric acid It uroduced hOJever only
one-sixth of the phosphate rock and imported more than three-eighths of the
world nroduction or about 2 14 times its oom uIoduction North America ras
second in volume of production of available pllosphoric acid
The United States was the largest Orelar nroducer of lhospllate rock pro-
ducing one-third of the JOrld total and exporting one-fourth of its output ilie
next largest producer was the Soviet Union followed in order by Tunisia French
Morocco and Naru lhe last three exported 95 to 100 per cent of their production
With the exceution of the Soviet Union nractically all European countries 1n-
cluding the prircipal nroc1ucers of aVailable nhos-cbates obtained 90 ner cent or
more of their 8up1)lies of nhosphate rock from foreign sources Pre1tlar world
production of avai lab Ie -uhOtphori c acid by geographic areas vIas as follows
Area Bank Pod1c tion Per cent (metric tons)
Etlrope I 219 331 621 North America 2 655 5~0 186 Asia 3 339594 96 Oceania 4 257552 7middot3 South Ao-nerica 5 60120 17 Africa 6 24L~45
lJORW 1OTAL ] 230middot~) __ JI)OO -
The principal countries urodlci1g availaole nhosphoric acid -re1trer Iere the
United Stcltes Germeny France the 3elgo-L1~xembourg Economic Gnion and Australit
Prewar availeble uhosuhoric acid nrocluction by these countries was as follows
Courtrl ProQuction Per cent (metric tons)
United Stetes 642642 182 Germany 474700 134 Fr3nce 373898 106 EelEo-Luxembourg 252534 72 Austrelia 2Lr-9554 71 Qthers l2236122~ LV~ 5
~IORLD TOTAL h 530223 1000
- 8
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of avail-
able phosphoric acid before the war It consumed five-eighths of the orld pro-
duction Horth America 1rlaS second in volume of consumption of available pl~os-
Phoric acid Pre18r world consumption of available phosJhoric acid by geocraphic
areas was as follows
Area
EuroOe north America Oceania Asia Africa South America
viLRIJl TQPAI
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6
Conumption __ Per cent (metric tons)
2470614 627 714191 181 351530 89 302098 77
79615 20 24087 Q6
Jmiddot242J~= 100cQ
The United State s 1rIaS the large s t single nre1ar consumer of aVcd lable phcs-
phoric acid followed by Gerr1any Soviet Union Frc-nce and Australia in that
order PreltJar availctble phosphoric acid consumption by t~ese countries Jas as
folloIS
~C~oun~~t~r~~ __________ ~-C~0~n~sym~t1~middoto~n~ ________ ~P~e~r~c~e~n_t~ (metric tons)
675223 564~ 177 386 )731 35)274 249595
United States Germany Sovieii TJlion France Austrlia Others
ifORLD TOTAL 1713136
171 14middot3 98 90 63
1~3 5 1000
Eurone r~nked first as an eX)orter of phosphates other than phosphate rock
but only becCluse she imnorted more then three-eightl1s of the lorld nrocuction of
nhosnhate rock Asia and South Anerica were the only other net eKporters of
phosphates and their volumes approxir1ated t~o-thirds and one-half respectively
that of Eurone The Belgo-Luxembourg Economic Union Fr~l1ce India Japan and
the United Kingdom as countries led in the volume of exports of phosphates other
than nhospha te rock The Belgo Luxembourg Economic Union exported nearly 70 per ce
of its production of available phosphoric aCid
- 9 -
The United States although rankng first as a procucer of available phos-
phoric acid imported considerable quantities of bones bone-mea gt1ano 8nd
ammonium phosphates The largest single importer was Germany Otber large Jn-
porters rere CanadH S1rJi tzerland the Union of South Africa and Firlard
Europe exceeded the rest of the 1trorld in the use of available phosphoric
aec Oer unit area of arable land as Vle11 BS of arab1e land and uermanent
meado1s and pastures
Potash
Eurone including the Soviet Union before tte rar produced nearly 90
ner cent of the vlOrld supply of 1)otash North America and Asia ere tne only
other recorded 1)roducers Pre1rl~r world production of potash by geogrBIJhic areas
was as follows
Area PoduGtion (metric t~ns)
Europe 1 2431067 North America Z 276267 Asia 3 27612 Oceania 0 0 South A~erica 0 0 Africa 0 0
Per cent
889 101 10
The principal country nrocucers of potash prellar lere Germany Frprce
Uni ted States the Soviet Union and Spain Prer potesh production by the
above c01Lltries vias as fo 110s
Country Proellic tion Per cent (net ric tons)
Germeny 1508800 352 Frence 479900 175 Uni ted Stetes 276267 101 Soviet Union 227600 83 Spain 117333 43 Others 122045 46
1iORLD TONIL 2 2 Z14 24 2 1000
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also was the largest consumer of potash
before the war North America WaS second in volume of potash consuneci Prewar
world consumption of potash b~T geographic areaS WaS as follols
Area Rank Consumntion fgtr cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 1 354 779 North ~~erica 2 392~208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 South Am~_Q~ ________ ~6 ____________ ~9~2~2~3~~ __ ~0~~4 __ ---lpoundQRLD TOTAL 2t2plusmn1i-261 1000
Germany Was the largest single prewar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United States France Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption was more than 2 12 ti1es that of t~1e United States 3 34 tbes
that of Franco nearly 5 34 tiJes that of the lTetherlands and mOle than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash consu-TJption by tliese countries vlaS as
follows
Country Conslli1ution ~~~~------------~(~~tric tons)
Gernry Uni ted Stetes France lTetherlords Soviet Union Others ~o~1LD TOTAL
950507 35J424 262365 167447 148250 69268 c 1 -I 2 dmiddotL 20
374 IJ 9 10middot3 66 58
26tL JOOO
Eurone Was the only net exporter of potash before the war The princina1
countries exporting notash were Germany France Spain the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany ex)orted 2 li2 times the quantity exnorted by Frence Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Japan imuorted about 95 per cent of their re-
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of potash
before the uJar North Arlerica was second in volume of potash conS-WJed Preiar
world consumption of potash br geographic areas was as follO18
Area Rank Consypptiol1 Pe~ cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 j 354 779 North America 2 3921208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 ~ Amerilt~a 6 21223 04 ---l[QRLD TOTAL 2t59-1j 61 lOOO
Gennany was the largest single preuJar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United StatesFrAnce Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption W1tS more than 2 12 ti1es thHt of the United States 3 34 times
trat of France nearly 5 34 tiles that of the netherlands and more than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash conslLlltion by these c01lJltries vIas as
follows
Country Qonsum-ption (metric tons)
Germgry 950507 374 United Stetes 353424 139 France 262365 103 11ether umds 167447 66 Soviet Union 148250 58 Others~ ________________ ~6)~~o~~~276~8 ______________ ~2~6~cO --JCRLD TOTAL 251Jl261 JOOO
Europe was the only net exporter of potash before tte war The principal
countries exporting Jotash were Germany France S])~dn the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany e~orted 2 12 tines the qlantity emorted by Prenee Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Janan imported about 95 per cent of their re-
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
lORID FERTI LIZER REVIEv (Wi th Special Refere~1Ce to lie~tern Europe)
HTTRODUCTION
The use of fertilizer materials as a means of supplementing the natural
food supplies of the soil is of considerable importance among the various factors
involved in the economical production of crops as llltlell as in the proper mtin
tenance of soil fertility VHthout certain elements such as nitrogen phos-
phorus potassium calcium magnesium and some others plants can not live
Wi th inadequate amounts of these elements plants are undernourished and fail
to grow and produce normally Undernourished plants in turn are likely to
mean undernourished mea and animals It is to ~~pply deficiencies in these es-
sential elements that fertilizer materials mus~ be added to the soil
Because fertilizer materials increase the 1Jroduction and im~)rove the quality
of crops they have become an essential element in farming in all countries
practicing modern agricultural methods It is probably true thet there has
never been a greater need than now of aiding farmers to secure maximum returns
from fertilizer materials
THE ESSEliJTIAL EL]vffiDTS IN-QQMlvIERCIAL IiERT LIZERsect
Fertilizer materi~ls are generally understood to be commercially obtainsble
indiVidual materials that contain one or more of the three essential chemical
elements-ni trogen phosphorus and potassium--in such forms that IIlllen the ma-
terials are applied to soils crops may make use of the elements needed for
their processes of growth In European countries~ farmers customarily purchase
raw fertilizer materials singly and apply them separately to the soil In the
United States however it is usual for the fertilizer manufacturers to prepare
mixtures from the raW materials and fOr the farmer to apply the mixed products
to his lane This difference in practice is apparently orimarily the result of
the higher cost of farm labor in the United States
- 2 -
Fertilizer naterials do not consi st of the plant food elements--li trogen
phosphorus and potassium--as such Tl1ey are more or less pure chemiccl cooshy
po~~ds of these elements with other elements or they are complex vegetable or
animal ~aterials The chemical compounds may have been obtained from natural
sources as in the case of Chilean sodium nitrate or manufactured expressly for
fertilizer use as in the case of superphosphate or obtained as bY-yroducts in
the manufacture of other materials as in the case of the ammonium sulphate obshy
tained in the manufacture of metallurgical coke or city gas The vegetable or
animal materials may be of natural origin as in t~e case of guano or obtained
as residues in processes for the utilization of plants and animals as in the
case of cottonseed meal or dried blood or recovered from astes as in the case
of sewage sludge
Fertilizer materials are classed as nitrogenous phosphatic or potassiC
according to hether they contain nitrogen phosphorus or potassium as their
principal or most valuable constituent As is so often the case in the setting
up of classifications some fertilizer materials may be placed in more than one
of these classes~
In the fertilizer trade it is customary to speak of fertilizer nateriels
and mixtures as containing nitrogen phos1)horic acid and potash instead of
nitrogen phosphorus and potassi~~
FRmiAR WORLD PRODVCTION TRADE AlID Su~PLY
General
Information on pre1l1ar 1JOrld production trade and consllrrption of eac of
the three major plant foods--ni trogen phosphor5c acid ane potash-has Ii ttle
value as a basis of estimating current fertilizer requirenents They do serve
however to explain 1I1hy there are acute shortages at the present time their loshy
cation magnitude and significance of possible shortages Such information is
necessary for the planning of postwar rehabilitation programs
- 3 -
Production and Sunpl[
The preJar average annual -JOrld production of all commercial plant foocs
was about 85 million metric tons of 1Jhich 22 million netric tons Jere ni tro-
gen 3 5 million metric tons vlere phosphoric acid and 27 million metric tons
16re potash The corresp)nding values for apparent consunption were 89 201-
3 9 and 26 million metric tons respectively Some 122 million metric tons
of phosphate rock Jere procluced from -hich the principal part of the phosphoric
acid as obteined A)preciable q14lntities hOlever ere supplied by guano
bOIes and bone-meal fish and animal fertilizers Dno other materiC~ls
EuroOe led the forld in the procuction and use of total fertilizers as
fell as in the use of 11itrogen available phosphoric acio and potash not only
did Europe lead the 1Torld on tile basis of tonnage in fertilizer nroduction and
consumption but she also led the 11orld in quanti ties consumed uni t area of
arable land and of arable land Oerhlenent meado1s and Oastures See Tables
1 and 2 belot
Table 1 Apparent PrevJarY Average Annual iforld Consumption of Ccmmercial Plant Foods Per Unit Area of Arable Lando
Geographic Division
Europe Others World
Total Plant Food
(Kg Oer HG~)
1505 75
114
N
(Kg per Ha)
Je8 24 32
lIPrelfar annuel average of 3 recent years
PZOS KzO (Kg ~i ) per ha (Kg per He bull )
65 52 3 6 14 50 3middot2
~able 1 Shov18 that vJhere the world average use of total plant foocl was 114 kg
per hectare of arable land EuroOe consumed 155 kg per hectare Liketrrise
in the consumption of nitrogen available phosphoric acid and potash Europe
led the rest of the world
Table 2 below sholJs the utilization of commercial plnt foods per uni t of
both arable land and permenent meadows and 1astures
4
Table 2 Aparei1t prewlrll Average Annual Ilorld Consumption of COImnercial Plant Foods Per Dni t of Arable Lard and Permanent jJlectdo1Js and Pastures
Geograpi1ic Total lT P205 K20 Division Plant Food -(Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg p ) per J
Europe 67 16 28 2middot3 Others 48 16 2middot3 09 World 59 16 26 L7
lIprm12r annual average of 3 recent years
Table 2 indicates that whereas the JOrld consumption of total plcmt foods
averaged 59 kg per hectare of arable cllld plus permanent meado1s anD 1Jastures
Europe consumed 67 kg per ilectare In the consurnptiol of nitrogen available
phosphoric acid and potash Europe equaled or exceeded the 1torld avorage con-
sumption
Europe as also a net eXporter of esch of these plant fooeS and led in ex-
ports of available phosphoric acid and potash South America -as the only other
net exporter of nitrogen materials
Africa and Forth America lIJere the leading Vorld proclucers of pnoslhate rock
and Europe Was largely dependent upon these sources mostly North Africa for
the rock required in the production of available phosphates South Arrerica and
Asia also exported considerpble phosphoric acid as guano bones and bone-meaL
The world IS notash requirements were supplied principally by Europe and Asia
Nitrogen
Europe including the Soviet Union before the -Jar produced and consumed
more nitrogen than all the rest of the orld Its production 1las fOJr times
that of Asia ancl about five and one-half tines that of either Horth America or
South America Production in lITorth America slightly exceeded that in South
America Pre-rar world production of nitrogen by geogrsphic areas was as follm-rs
- 5 -
Area Rank Production Per CGIL -T~tric tons)
Europe 1 1388197 61~9 Asia 2 346 608 155 lrorth America 3 254104 11middot3 South America 4 247431 11~O Oceenia 5 3846 lt12 t1rica 6 1L~l16 1
tWRLD TOTAL 2 ~41 72_ 10Q0 =
The leading prerar )roducers of nitrogen in order ot their importeEce Vlere
Germsny Chile Japan and the United States Prewar nitrogen production by
these countries l1as ss follows
Country PIoduction Per cent ~~~~-------------7(m~e~t~ric to~u~s~)------~~~~~
Germany 677035 Chile 226557 SaDan 211806
302 101 94
United States 207432 93 Other~ ______________ ~2~1~8~i~9~02 ____________ Lcl2---
~iOR1D TOTAL 2241 7)2 1000 ====~ ~ -~======~~~~~==~====~~~====
The four leading nitrogen 1)rooucing countries produced 59 per cent of the
total ]orld pr00uction 1)rior to the lJar Germany the leading proc1ucer was re-
s1onsible for over 30 ner cent of the world proeuction
Europe including the Soviet Union consumed mora nitrogen before the war
than all the rest of t1e rorld It used three times as much nitrogen as Asia
snd about 3 78 times as much as north America the next largest consumer Prewa
world consumution of n1 trogen by geographic areas Was 8S follows
Area Bank ConSLJIltioll Per c~ni (metriC tons)
Europe 1 1434585 590 Asia 2 469607 193 North America 3 369904 152 Africa 4 94917 3middot9 South A1erica 5 31660 13 Ooeania 6 30438 13
1CRLD TOTAL 2 1 4Jl 1 l14 10O~ j
6 -
Four countries--Germeny United States Japan and France (in that order)-
consumed over 54 per cent of the total vTorld consumption of nitrogen prior to
the War Germany the leading consumer used about the same amount as the
United States and J~lpan combined the next largest consumers PreWar nitroeen
consumution by these countries waS as follows
Countr Comnunntion Per cent ~~~~~------~~(~m~etmiddotricmiddot~t~o~n~s~)~-----~~~~~--
Germany 571384 235 United Stetes 334603 138 Japan 252824 104 France 154770 64 ~O~tl~~e~r~s~~ ________ ~1~21~]~7u~~~3~1 _________ ~4~9~ ____ _ ====~=10=RLD T~=~=L~======2~=4~~1=1~4========~10=O==O=====
Chile Germanl Jorway the Unitec ltingclom and Jian chu-i a led in vCilume
of exports of nitrogen Chile lJorway Manchuria and Yugoslavia exported
8) per cent or more of their Troduction whereas the exports of GerlIlPny lere only
15 to 16 per cent of total production
Only South America and Europe nroduced nitrogen in excess of internal re-
quirements South American exnorts were more thc-n 6 12 times those of Suroue
by volume and re1)resented a high percentage of the entire production 1ltrhereas
Euro-pean eX1)orts -Jere eqUivalent to less than J per cent of production
The Uni ted States although the fourth 1argEst -nro0ucer of nitrogen rltlnked
first in volume of nitrogen irnTJorts Three-eighths of its total nitrogen recuire
ments were obtained from foreign sources nri2cinally from Chile and Can1da
Other large im1)orters were Suain Egynt Den1er~t and Tai1Jan i1 that order
Eurone exceeded all ot~urs in the use of nitrogen Jer unit of arable land and of
arable land and nermanent me8do1vS and 1)astures
Phos1)horic Acid
Euro1)e including the Soviet Union before the war roduced more phosnhoric
acid than 811 the rest of the tvorld It nroduced nearly five-eighths of the
- 7 -
world nroduction of available phosnhoric acid It uroduced hOJever only
one-sixth of the phosphate rock and imported more than three-eighths of the
world nroduction or about 2 14 times its oom uIoduction North America ras
second in volume of production of available pllosphoric acid
The United States was the largest Orelar nroducer of lhospllate rock pro-
ducing one-third of the JOrld total and exporting one-fourth of its output ilie
next largest producer was the Soviet Union followed in order by Tunisia French
Morocco and Naru lhe last three exported 95 to 100 per cent of their production
With the exceution of the Soviet Union nractically all European countries 1n-
cluding the prircipal nroc1ucers of aVailable nhos-cbates obtained 90 ner cent or
more of their 8up1)lies of nhosphate rock from foreign sources Pre1tlar world
production of avai lab Ie -uhOtphori c acid by geographic areas vIas as follows
Area Bank Pod1c tion Per cent (metric tons)
Etlrope I 219 331 621 North America 2 655 5~0 186 Asia 3 339594 96 Oceania 4 257552 7middot3 South Ao-nerica 5 60120 17 Africa 6 24L~45
lJORW 1OTAL ] 230middot~) __ JI)OO -
The principal countries urodlci1g availaole nhosphoric acid -re1trer Iere the
United Stcltes Germeny France the 3elgo-L1~xembourg Economic Gnion and Australit
Prewar availeble uhosuhoric acid nrocluction by these countries was as follows
Courtrl ProQuction Per cent (metric tons)
United Stetes 642642 182 Germany 474700 134 Fr3nce 373898 106 EelEo-Luxembourg 252534 72 Austrelia 2Lr-9554 71 Qthers l2236122~ LV~ 5
~IORLD TOTAL h 530223 1000
- 8
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of avail-
able phosphoric acid before the war It consumed five-eighths of the orld pro-
duction Horth America 1rlaS second in volume of consumption of available pl~os-
Phoric acid Pre18r world consumption of available phosJhoric acid by geocraphic
areas was as follows
Area
EuroOe north America Oceania Asia Africa South America
viLRIJl TQPAI
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6
Conumption __ Per cent (metric tons)
2470614 627 714191 181 351530 89 302098 77
79615 20 24087 Q6
Jmiddot242J~= 100cQ
The United State s 1rIaS the large s t single nre1ar consumer of aVcd lable phcs-
phoric acid followed by Gerr1any Soviet Union Frc-nce and Australia in that
order PreltJar availctble phosphoric acid consumption by t~ese countries Jas as
folloIS
~C~oun~~t~r~~ __________ ~-C~0~n~sym~t1~middoto~n~ ________ ~P~e~r~c~e~n_t~ (metric tons)
675223 564~ 177 386 )731 35)274 249595
United States Germany Sovieii TJlion France Austrlia Others
ifORLD TOTAL 1713136
171 14middot3 98 90 63
1~3 5 1000
Eurone r~nked first as an eX)orter of phosphates other than phosphate rock
but only becCluse she imnorted more then three-eightl1s of the lorld nrocuction of
nhosnhate rock Asia and South Anerica were the only other net eKporters of
phosphates and their volumes approxir1ated t~o-thirds and one-half respectively
that of Eurone The Belgo-Luxembourg Economic Union Fr~l1ce India Japan and
the United Kingdom as countries led in the volume of exports of phosphates other
than nhospha te rock The Belgo Luxembourg Economic Union exported nearly 70 per ce
of its production of available phosphoric aCid
- 9 -
The United States although rankng first as a procucer of available phos-
phoric acid imported considerable quantities of bones bone-mea gt1ano 8nd
ammonium phosphates The largest single importer was Germany Otber large Jn-
porters rere CanadH S1rJi tzerland the Union of South Africa and Firlard
Europe exceeded the rest of the 1trorld in the use of available phosphoric
aec Oer unit area of arable land as Vle11 BS of arab1e land and uermanent
meado1s and pastures
Potash
Eurone including the Soviet Union before tte rar produced nearly 90
ner cent of the vlOrld supply of 1)otash North America and Asia ere tne only
other recorded 1)roducers Pre1rl~r world production of potash by geogrBIJhic areas
was as follows
Area PoduGtion (metric t~ns)
Europe 1 2431067 North America Z 276267 Asia 3 27612 Oceania 0 0 South A~erica 0 0 Africa 0 0
Per cent
889 101 10
The principal country nrocucers of potash prellar lere Germany Frprce
Uni ted States the Soviet Union and Spain Prer potesh production by the
above c01Lltries vias as fo 110s
Country Proellic tion Per cent (net ric tons)
Germeny 1508800 352 Frence 479900 175 Uni ted Stetes 276267 101 Soviet Union 227600 83 Spain 117333 43 Others 122045 46
1iORLD TONIL 2 2 Z14 24 2 1000
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also was the largest consumer of potash
before the war North America WaS second in volume of potash consuneci Prewar
world consumption of potash b~T geographic areaS WaS as follols
Area Rank Consumntion fgtr cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 1 354 779 North ~~erica 2 392~208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 South Am~_Q~ ________ ~6 ____________ ~9~2~2~3~~ __ ~0~~4 __ ---lpoundQRLD TOTAL 2t2plusmn1i-261 1000
Germany Was the largest single prewar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United States France Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption was more than 2 12 ti1es that of t~1e United States 3 34 tbes
that of Franco nearly 5 34 tiJes that of the lTetherlands and mOle than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash consu-TJption by tliese countries vlaS as
follows
Country Conslli1ution ~~~~------------~(~~tric tons)
Gernry Uni ted Stetes France lTetherlords Soviet Union Others ~o~1LD TOTAL
950507 35J424 262365 167447 148250 69268 c 1 -I 2 dmiddotL 20
374 IJ 9 10middot3 66 58
26tL JOOO
Eurone Was the only net exporter of potash before the war The princina1
countries exporting notash were Germany France Spain the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany ex)orted 2 li2 times the quantity exnorted by Frence Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Japan imuorted about 95 per cent of their re-
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of potash
before the uJar North Arlerica was second in volume of potash conS-WJed Preiar
world consumption of potash br geographic areas was as follO18
Area Rank Consypptiol1 Pe~ cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 j 354 779 North America 2 3921208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 ~ Amerilt~a 6 21223 04 ---l[QRLD TOTAL 2t59-1j 61 lOOO
Gennany was the largest single preuJar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United StatesFrAnce Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption W1tS more than 2 12 ti1es thHt of the United States 3 34 times
trat of France nearly 5 34 tiles that of the netherlands and more than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash conslLlltion by these c01lJltries vIas as
follows
Country Qonsum-ption (metric tons)
Germgry 950507 374 United Stetes 353424 139 France 262365 103 11ether umds 167447 66 Soviet Union 148250 58 Others~ ________________ ~6)~~o~~~276~8 ______________ ~2~6~cO --JCRLD TOTAL 251Jl261 JOOO
Europe was the only net exporter of potash before tte war The principal
countries exporting Jotash were Germany France S])~dn the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany e~orted 2 12 tines the qlantity emorted by Prenee Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Janan imported about 95 per cent of their re-
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 2 -
Fertilizer naterials do not consi st of the plant food elements--li trogen
phosphorus and potassium--as such Tl1ey are more or less pure chemiccl cooshy
po~~ds of these elements with other elements or they are complex vegetable or
animal ~aterials The chemical compounds may have been obtained from natural
sources as in the case of Chilean sodium nitrate or manufactured expressly for
fertilizer use as in the case of superphosphate or obtained as bY-yroducts in
the manufacture of other materials as in the case of the ammonium sulphate obshy
tained in the manufacture of metallurgical coke or city gas The vegetable or
animal materials may be of natural origin as in t~e case of guano or obtained
as residues in processes for the utilization of plants and animals as in the
case of cottonseed meal or dried blood or recovered from astes as in the case
of sewage sludge
Fertilizer materials are classed as nitrogenous phosphatic or potassiC
according to hether they contain nitrogen phosphorus or potassium as their
principal or most valuable constituent As is so often the case in the setting
up of classifications some fertilizer materials may be placed in more than one
of these classes~
In the fertilizer trade it is customary to speak of fertilizer nateriels
and mixtures as containing nitrogen phos1)horic acid and potash instead of
nitrogen phosphorus and potassi~~
FRmiAR WORLD PRODVCTION TRADE AlID Su~PLY
General
Information on pre1l1ar 1JOrld production trade and consllrrption of eac of
the three major plant foods--ni trogen phosphor5c acid ane potash-has Ii ttle
value as a basis of estimating current fertilizer requirenents They do serve
however to explain 1I1hy there are acute shortages at the present time their loshy
cation magnitude and significance of possible shortages Such information is
necessary for the planning of postwar rehabilitation programs
- 3 -
Production and Sunpl[
The preJar average annual -JOrld production of all commercial plant foocs
was about 85 million metric tons of 1Jhich 22 million netric tons Jere ni tro-
gen 3 5 million metric tons vlere phosphoric acid and 27 million metric tons
16re potash The corresp)nding values for apparent consunption were 89 201-
3 9 and 26 million metric tons respectively Some 122 million metric tons
of phosphate rock Jere procluced from -hich the principal part of the phosphoric
acid as obteined A)preciable q14lntities hOlever ere supplied by guano
bOIes and bone-meal fish and animal fertilizers Dno other materiC~ls
EuroOe led the forld in the procuction and use of total fertilizers as
fell as in the use of 11itrogen available phosphoric acio and potash not only
did Europe lead the 1Torld on tile basis of tonnage in fertilizer nroduction and
consumption but she also led the 11orld in quanti ties consumed uni t area of
arable land and of arable land Oerhlenent meado1s and Oastures See Tables
1 and 2 belot
Table 1 Apparent PrevJarY Average Annual iforld Consumption of Ccmmercial Plant Foods Per Unit Area of Arable Lando
Geographic Division
Europe Others World
Total Plant Food
(Kg Oer HG~)
1505 75
114
N
(Kg per Ha)
Je8 24 32
lIPrelfar annuel average of 3 recent years
PZOS KzO (Kg ~i ) per ha (Kg per He bull )
65 52 3 6 14 50 3middot2
~able 1 Shov18 that vJhere the world average use of total plant foocl was 114 kg
per hectare of arable land EuroOe consumed 155 kg per hectare Liketrrise
in the consumption of nitrogen available phosphoric acid and potash Europe
led the rest of the world
Table 2 below sholJs the utilization of commercial plnt foods per uni t of
both arable land and permenent meadows and 1astures
4
Table 2 Aparei1t prewlrll Average Annual Ilorld Consumption of COImnercial Plant Foods Per Dni t of Arable Lard and Permanent jJlectdo1Js and Pastures
Geograpi1ic Total lT P205 K20 Division Plant Food -(Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg p ) per J
Europe 67 16 28 2middot3 Others 48 16 2middot3 09 World 59 16 26 L7
lIprm12r annual average of 3 recent years
Table 2 indicates that whereas the JOrld consumption of total plcmt foods
averaged 59 kg per hectare of arable cllld plus permanent meado1s anD 1Jastures
Europe consumed 67 kg per ilectare In the consurnptiol of nitrogen available
phosphoric acid and potash Europe equaled or exceeded the 1torld avorage con-
sumption
Europe as also a net eXporter of esch of these plant fooeS and led in ex-
ports of available phosphoric acid and potash South America -as the only other
net exporter of nitrogen materials
Africa and Forth America lIJere the leading Vorld proclucers of pnoslhate rock
and Europe Was largely dependent upon these sources mostly North Africa for
the rock required in the production of available phosphates South Arrerica and
Asia also exported considerpble phosphoric acid as guano bones and bone-meaL
The world IS notash requirements were supplied principally by Europe and Asia
Nitrogen
Europe including the Soviet Union before the -Jar produced and consumed
more nitrogen than all the rest of the orld Its production 1las fOJr times
that of Asia ancl about five and one-half tines that of either Horth America or
South America Production in lITorth America slightly exceeded that in South
America Pre-rar world production of nitrogen by geogrsphic areas was as follm-rs
- 5 -
Area Rank Production Per CGIL -T~tric tons)
Europe 1 1388197 61~9 Asia 2 346 608 155 lrorth America 3 254104 11middot3 South America 4 247431 11~O Oceenia 5 3846 lt12 t1rica 6 1L~l16 1
tWRLD TOTAL 2 ~41 72_ 10Q0 =
The leading prerar )roducers of nitrogen in order ot their importeEce Vlere
Germsny Chile Japan and the United States Prewar nitrogen production by
these countries l1as ss follows
Country PIoduction Per cent ~~~~-------------7(m~e~t~ric to~u~s~)------~~~~~
Germany 677035 Chile 226557 SaDan 211806
302 101 94
United States 207432 93 Other~ ______________ ~2~1~8~i~9~02 ____________ Lcl2---
~iOR1D TOTAL 2241 7)2 1000 ====~ ~ -~======~~~~~==~====~~~====
The four leading nitrogen 1)rooucing countries produced 59 per cent of the
total ]orld pr00uction 1)rior to the lJar Germany the leading proc1ucer was re-
s1onsible for over 30 ner cent of the world proeuction
Europe including the Soviet Union consumed mora nitrogen before the war
than all the rest of t1e rorld It used three times as much nitrogen as Asia
snd about 3 78 times as much as north America the next largest consumer Prewa
world consumution of n1 trogen by geographic areas Was 8S follows
Area Bank ConSLJIltioll Per c~ni (metriC tons)
Europe 1 1434585 590 Asia 2 469607 193 North America 3 369904 152 Africa 4 94917 3middot9 South A1erica 5 31660 13 Ooeania 6 30438 13
1CRLD TOTAL 2 1 4Jl 1 l14 10O~ j
6 -
Four countries--Germeny United States Japan and France (in that order)-
consumed over 54 per cent of the total vTorld consumption of nitrogen prior to
the War Germany the leading consumer used about the same amount as the
United States and J~lpan combined the next largest consumers PreWar nitroeen
consumution by these countries waS as follows
Countr Comnunntion Per cent ~~~~~------~~(~m~etmiddotricmiddot~t~o~n~s~)~-----~~~~~--
Germany 571384 235 United Stetes 334603 138 Japan 252824 104 France 154770 64 ~O~tl~~e~r~s~~ ________ ~1~21~]~7u~~~3~1 _________ ~4~9~ ____ _ ====~=10=RLD T~=~=L~======2~=4~~1=1~4========~10=O==O=====
Chile Germanl Jorway the Unitec ltingclom and Jian chu-i a led in vCilume
of exports of nitrogen Chile lJorway Manchuria and Yugoslavia exported
8) per cent or more of their Troduction whereas the exports of GerlIlPny lere only
15 to 16 per cent of total production
Only South America and Europe nroduced nitrogen in excess of internal re-
quirements South American exnorts were more thc-n 6 12 times those of Suroue
by volume and re1)resented a high percentage of the entire production 1ltrhereas
Euro-pean eX1)orts -Jere eqUivalent to less than J per cent of production
The Uni ted States although the fourth 1argEst -nro0ucer of nitrogen rltlnked
first in volume of nitrogen irnTJorts Three-eighths of its total nitrogen recuire
ments were obtained from foreign sources nri2cinally from Chile and Can1da
Other large im1)orters were Suain Egynt Den1er~t and Tai1Jan i1 that order
Eurone exceeded all ot~urs in the use of nitrogen Jer unit of arable land and of
arable land and nermanent me8do1vS and 1)astures
Phos1)horic Acid
Euro1)e including the Soviet Union before the war roduced more phosnhoric
acid than 811 the rest of the tvorld It nroduced nearly five-eighths of the
- 7 -
world nroduction of available phosnhoric acid It uroduced hOJever only
one-sixth of the phosphate rock and imported more than three-eighths of the
world nroduction or about 2 14 times its oom uIoduction North America ras
second in volume of production of available pllosphoric acid
The United States was the largest Orelar nroducer of lhospllate rock pro-
ducing one-third of the JOrld total and exporting one-fourth of its output ilie
next largest producer was the Soviet Union followed in order by Tunisia French
Morocco and Naru lhe last three exported 95 to 100 per cent of their production
With the exceution of the Soviet Union nractically all European countries 1n-
cluding the prircipal nroc1ucers of aVailable nhos-cbates obtained 90 ner cent or
more of their 8up1)lies of nhosphate rock from foreign sources Pre1tlar world
production of avai lab Ie -uhOtphori c acid by geographic areas vIas as follows
Area Bank Pod1c tion Per cent (metric tons)
Etlrope I 219 331 621 North America 2 655 5~0 186 Asia 3 339594 96 Oceania 4 257552 7middot3 South Ao-nerica 5 60120 17 Africa 6 24L~45
lJORW 1OTAL ] 230middot~) __ JI)OO -
The principal countries urodlci1g availaole nhosphoric acid -re1trer Iere the
United Stcltes Germeny France the 3elgo-L1~xembourg Economic Gnion and Australit
Prewar availeble uhosuhoric acid nrocluction by these countries was as follows
Courtrl ProQuction Per cent (metric tons)
United Stetes 642642 182 Germany 474700 134 Fr3nce 373898 106 EelEo-Luxembourg 252534 72 Austrelia 2Lr-9554 71 Qthers l2236122~ LV~ 5
~IORLD TOTAL h 530223 1000
- 8
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of avail-
able phosphoric acid before the war It consumed five-eighths of the orld pro-
duction Horth America 1rlaS second in volume of consumption of available pl~os-
Phoric acid Pre18r world consumption of available phosJhoric acid by geocraphic
areas was as follows
Area
EuroOe north America Oceania Asia Africa South America
viLRIJl TQPAI
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6
Conumption __ Per cent (metric tons)
2470614 627 714191 181 351530 89 302098 77
79615 20 24087 Q6
Jmiddot242J~= 100cQ
The United State s 1rIaS the large s t single nre1ar consumer of aVcd lable phcs-
phoric acid followed by Gerr1any Soviet Union Frc-nce and Australia in that
order PreltJar availctble phosphoric acid consumption by t~ese countries Jas as
folloIS
~C~oun~~t~r~~ __________ ~-C~0~n~sym~t1~middoto~n~ ________ ~P~e~r~c~e~n_t~ (metric tons)
675223 564~ 177 386 )731 35)274 249595
United States Germany Sovieii TJlion France Austrlia Others
ifORLD TOTAL 1713136
171 14middot3 98 90 63
1~3 5 1000
Eurone r~nked first as an eX)orter of phosphates other than phosphate rock
but only becCluse she imnorted more then three-eightl1s of the lorld nrocuction of
nhosnhate rock Asia and South Anerica were the only other net eKporters of
phosphates and their volumes approxir1ated t~o-thirds and one-half respectively
that of Eurone The Belgo-Luxembourg Economic Union Fr~l1ce India Japan and
the United Kingdom as countries led in the volume of exports of phosphates other
than nhospha te rock The Belgo Luxembourg Economic Union exported nearly 70 per ce
of its production of available phosphoric aCid
- 9 -
The United States although rankng first as a procucer of available phos-
phoric acid imported considerable quantities of bones bone-mea gt1ano 8nd
ammonium phosphates The largest single importer was Germany Otber large Jn-
porters rere CanadH S1rJi tzerland the Union of South Africa and Firlard
Europe exceeded the rest of the 1trorld in the use of available phosphoric
aec Oer unit area of arable land as Vle11 BS of arab1e land and uermanent
meado1s and pastures
Potash
Eurone including the Soviet Union before tte rar produced nearly 90
ner cent of the vlOrld supply of 1)otash North America and Asia ere tne only
other recorded 1)roducers Pre1rl~r world production of potash by geogrBIJhic areas
was as follows
Area PoduGtion (metric t~ns)
Europe 1 2431067 North America Z 276267 Asia 3 27612 Oceania 0 0 South A~erica 0 0 Africa 0 0
Per cent
889 101 10
The principal country nrocucers of potash prellar lere Germany Frprce
Uni ted States the Soviet Union and Spain Prer potesh production by the
above c01Lltries vias as fo 110s
Country Proellic tion Per cent (net ric tons)
Germeny 1508800 352 Frence 479900 175 Uni ted Stetes 276267 101 Soviet Union 227600 83 Spain 117333 43 Others 122045 46
1iORLD TONIL 2 2 Z14 24 2 1000
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also was the largest consumer of potash
before the war North America WaS second in volume of potash consuneci Prewar
world consumption of potash b~T geographic areaS WaS as follols
Area Rank Consumntion fgtr cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 1 354 779 North ~~erica 2 392~208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 South Am~_Q~ ________ ~6 ____________ ~9~2~2~3~~ __ ~0~~4 __ ---lpoundQRLD TOTAL 2t2plusmn1i-261 1000
Germany Was the largest single prewar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United States France Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption was more than 2 12 ti1es that of t~1e United States 3 34 tbes
that of Franco nearly 5 34 tiJes that of the lTetherlands and mOle than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash consu-TJption by tliese countries vlaS as
follows
Country Conslli1ution ~~~~------------~(~~tric tons)
Gernry Uni ted Stetes France lTetherlords Soviet Union Others ~o~1LD TOTAL
950507 35J424 262365 167447 148250 69268 c 1 -I 2 dmiddotL 20
374 IJ 9 10middot3 66 58
26tL JOOO
Eurone Was the only net exporter of potash before the war The princina1
countries exporting notash were Germany France Spain the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany ex)orted 2 li2 times the quantity exnorted by Frence Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Japan imuorted about 95 per cent of their re-
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of potash
before the uJar North Arlerica was second in volume of potash conS-WJed Preiar
world consumption of potash br geographic areas was as follO18
Area Rank Consypptiol1 Pe~ cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 j 354 779 North America 2 3921208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 ~ Amerilt~a 6 21223 04 ---l[QRLD TOTAL 2t59-1j 61 lOOO
Gennany was the largest single preuJar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United StatesFrAnce Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption W1tS more than 2 12 ti1es thHt of the United States 3 34 times
trat of France nearly 5 34 tiles that of the netherlands and more than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash conslLlltion by these c01lJltries vIas as
follows
Country Qonsum-ption (metric tons)
Germgry 950507 374 United Stetes 353424 139 France 262365 103 11ether umds 167447 66 Soviet Union 148250 58 Others~ ________________ ~6)~~o~~~276~8 ______________ ~2~6~cO --JCRLD TOTAL 251Jl261 JOOO
Europe was the only net exporter of potash before tte war The principal
countries exporting Jotash were Germany France S])~dn the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany e~orted 2 12 tines the qlantity emorted by Prenee Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Janan imported about 95 per cent of their re-
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 3 -
Production and Sunpl[
The preJar average annual -JOrld production of all commercial plant foocs
was about 85 million metric tons of 1Jhich 22 million netric tons Jere ni tro-
gen 3 5 million metric tons vlere phosphoric acid and 27 million metric tons
16re potash The corresp)nding values for apparent consunption were 89 201-
3 9 and 26 million metric tons respectively Some 122 million metric tons
of phosphate rock Jere procluced from -hich the principal part of the phosphoric
acid as obteined A)preciable q14lntities hOlever ere supplied by guano
bOIes and bone-meal fish and animal fertilizers Dno other materiC~ls
EuroOe led the forld in the procuction and use of total fertilizers as
fell as in the use of 11itrogen available phosphoric acio and potash not only
did Europe lead the 1Torld on tile basis of tonnage in fertilizer nroduction and
consumption but she also led the 11orld in quanti ties consumed uni t area of
arable land and of arable land Oerhlenent meado1s and Oastures See Tables
1 and 2 belot
Table 1 Apparent PrevJarY Average Annual iforld Consumption of Ccmmercial Plant Foods Per Unit Area of Arable Lando
Geographic Division
Europe Others World
Total Plant Food
(Kg Oer HG~)
1505 75
114
N
(Kg per Ha)
Je8 24 32
lIPrelfar annuel average of 3 recent years
PZOS KzO (Kg ~i ) per ha (Kg per He bull )
65 52 3 6 14 50 3middot2
~able 1 Shov18 that vJhere the world average use of total plant foocl was 114 kg
per hectare of arable land EuroOe consumed 155 kg per hectare Liketrrise
in the consumption of nitrogen available phosphoric acid and potash Europe
led the rest of the world
Table 2 below sholJs the utilization of commercial plnt foods per uni t of
both arable land and permenent meadows and 1astures
4
Table 2 Aparei1t prewlrll Average Annual Ilorld Consumption of COImnercial Plant Foods Per Dni t of Arable Lard and Permanent jJlectdo1Js and Pastures
Geograpi1ic Total lT P205 K20 Division Plant Food -(Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg p ) per J
Europe 67 16 28 2middot3 Others 48 16 2middot3 09 World 59 16 26 L7
lIprm12r annual average of 3 recent years
Table 2 indicates that whereas the JOrld consumption of total plcmt foods
averaged 59 kg per hectare of arable cllld plus permanent meado1s anD 1Jastures
Europe consumed 67 kg per ilectare In the consurnptiol of nitrogen available
phosphoric acid and potash Europe equaled or exceeded the 1torld avorage con-
sumption
Europe as also a net eXporter of esch of these plant fooeS and led in ex-
ports of available phosphoric acid and potash South America -as the only other
net exporter of nitrogen materials
Africa and Forth America lIJere the leading Vorld proclucers of pnoslhate rock
and Europe Was largely dependent upon these sources mostly North Africa for
the rock required in the production of available phosphates South Arrerica and
Asia also exported considerpble phosphoric acid as guano bones and bone-meaL
The world IS notash requirements were supplied principally by Europe and Asia
Nitrogen
Europe including the Soviet Union before the -Jar produced and consumed
more nitrogen than all the rest of the orld Its production 1las fOJr times
that of Asia ancl about five and one-half tines that of either Horth America or
South America Production in lITorth America slightly exceeded that in South
America Pre-rar world production of nitrogen by geogrsphic areas was as follm-rs
- 5 -
Area Rank Production Per CGIL -T~tric tons)
Europe 1 1388197 61~9 Asia 2 346 608 155 lrorth America 3 254104 11middot3 South America 4 247431 11~O Oceenia 5 3846 lt12 t1rica 6 1L~l16 1
tWRLD TOTAL 2 ~41 72_ 10Q0 =
The leading prerar )roducers of nitrogen in order ot their importeEce Vlere
Germsny Chile Japan and the United States Prewar nitrogen production by
these countries l1as ss follows
Country PIoduction Per cent ~~~~-------------7(m~e~t~ric to~u~s~)------~~~~~
Germany 677035 Chile 226557 SaDan 211806
302 101 94
United States 207432 93 Other~ ______________ ~2~1~8~i~9~02 ____________ Lcl2---
~iOR1D TOTAL 2241 7)2 1000 ====~ ~ -~======~~~~~==~====~~~====
The four leading nitrogen 1)rooucing countries produced 59 per cent of the
total ]orld pr00uction 1)rior to the lJar Germany the leading proc1ucer was re-
s1onsible for over 30 ner cent of the world proeuction
Europe including the Soviet Union consumed mora nitrogen before the war
than all the rest of t1e rorld It used three times as much nitrogen as Asia
snd about 3 78 times as much as north America the next largest consumer Prewa
world consumution of n1 trogen by geographic areas Was 8S follows
Area Bank ConSLJIltioll Per c~ni (metriC tons)
Europe 1 1434585 590 Asia 2 469607 193 North America 3 369904 152 Africa 4 94917 3middot9 South A1erica 5 31660 13 Ooeania 6 30438 13
1CRLD TOTAL 2 1 4Jl 1 l14 10O~ j
6 -
Four countries--Germeny United States Japan and France (in that order)-
consumed over 54 per cent of the total vTorld consumption of nitrogen prior to
the War Germany the leading consumer used about the same amount as the
United States and J~lpan combined the next largest consumers PreWar nitroeen
consumution by these countries waS as follows
Countr Comnunntion Per cent ~~~~~------~~(~m~etmiddotricmiddot~t~o~n~s~)~-----~~~~~--
Germany 571384 235 United Stetes 334603 138 Japan 252824 104 France 154770 64 ~O~tl~~e~r~s~~ ________ ~1~21~]~7u~~~3~1 _________ ~4~9~ ____ _ ====~=10=RLD T~=~=L~======2~=4~~1=1~4========~10=O==O=====
Chile Germanl Jorway the Unitec ltingclom and Jian chu-i a led in vCilume
of exports of nitrogen Chile lJorway Manchuria and Yugoslavia exported
8) per cent or more of their Troduction whereas the exports of GerlIlPny lere only
15 to 16 per cent of total production
Only South America and Europe nroduced nitrogen in excess of internal re-
quirements South American exnorts were more thc-n 6 12 times those of Suroue
by volume and re1)resented a high percentage of the entire production 1ltrhereas
Euro-pean eX1)orts -Jere eqUivalent to less than J per cent of production
The Uni ted States although the fourth 1argEst -nro0ucer of nitrogen rltlnked
first in volume of nitrogen irnTJorts Three-eighths of its total nitrogen recuire
ments were obtained from foreign sources nri2cinally from Chile and Can1da
Other large im1)orters were Suain Egynt Den1er~t and Tai1Jan i1 that order
Eurone exceeded all ot~urs in the use of nitrogen Jer unit of arable land and of
arable land and nermanent me8do1vS and 1)astures
Phos1)horic Acid
Euro1)e including the Soviet Union before the war roduced more phosnhoric
acid than 811 the rest of the tvorld It nroduced nearly five-eighths of the
- 7 -
world nroduction of available phosnhoric acid It uroduced hOJever only
one-sixth of the phosphate rock and imported more than three-eighths of the
world nroduction or about 2 14 times its oom uIoduction North America ras
second in volume of production of available pllosphoric acid
The United States was the largest Orelar nroducer of lhospllate rock pro-
ducing one-third of the JOrld total and exporting one-fourth of its output ilie
next largest producer was the Soviet Union followed in order by Tunisia French
Morocco and Naru lhe last three exported 95 to 100 per cent of their production
With the exceution of the Soviet Union nractically all European countries 1n-
cluding the prircipal nroc1ucers of aVailable nhos-cbates obtained 90 ner cent or
more of their 8up1)lies of nhosphate rock from foreign sources Pre1tlar world
production of avai lab Ie -uhOtphori c acid by geographic areas vIas as follows
Area Bank Pod1c tion Per cent (metric tons)
Etlrope I 219 331 621 North America 2 655 5~0 186 Asia 3 339594 96 Oceania 4 257552 7middot3 South Ao-nerica 5 60120 17 Africa 6 24L~45
lJORW 1OTAL ] 230middot~) __ JI)OO -
The principal countries urodlci1g availaole nhosphoric acid -re1trer Iere the
United Stcltes Germeny France the 3elgo-L1~xembourg Economic Gnion and Australit
Prewar availeble uhosuhoric acid nrocluction by these countries was as follows
Courtrl ProQuction Per cent (metric tons)
United Stetes 642642 182 Germany 474700 134 Fr3nce 373898 106 EelEo-Luxembourg 252534 72 Austrelia 2Lr-9554 71 Qthers l2236122~ LV~ 5
~IORLD TOTAL h 530223 1000
- 8
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of avail-
able phosphoric acid before the war It consumed five-eighths of the orld pro-
duction Horth America 1rlaS second in volume of consumption of available pl~os-
Phoric acid Pre18r world consumption of available phosJhoric acid by geocraphic
areas was as follows
Area
EuroOe north America Oceania Asia Africa South America
viLRIJl TQPAI
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6
Conumption __ Per cent (metric tons)
2470614 627 714191 181 351530 89 302098 77
79615 20 24087 Q6
Jmiddot242J~= 100cQ
The United State s 1rIaS the large s t single nre1ar consumer of aVcd lable phcs-
phoric acid followed by Gerr1any Soviet Union Frc-nce and Australia in that
order PreltJar availctble phosphoric acid consumption by t~ese countries Jas as
folloIS
~C~oun~~t~r~~ __________ ~-C~0~n~sym~t1~middoto~n~ ________ ~P~e~r~c~e~n_t~ (metric tons)
675223 564~ 177 386 )731 35)274 249595
United States Germany Sovieii TJlion France Austrlia Others
ifORLD TOTAL 1713136
171 14middot3 98 90 63
1~3 5 1000
Eurone r~nked first as an eX)orter of phosphates other than phosphate rock
but only becCluse she imnorted more then three-eightl1s of the lorld nrocuction of
nhosnhate rock Asia and South Anerica were the only other net eKporters of
phosphates and their volumes approxir1ated t~o-thirds and one-half respectively
that of Eurone The Belgo-Luxembourg Economic Union Fr~l1ce India Japan and
the United Kingdom as countries led in the volume of exports of phosphates other
than nhospha te rock The Belgo Luxembourg Economic Union exported nearly 70 per ce
of its production of available phosphoric aCid
- 9 -
The United States although rankng first as a procucer of available phos-
phoric acid imported considerable quantities of bones bone-mea gt1ano 8nd
ammonium phosphates The largest single importer was Germany Otber large Jn-
porters rere CanadH S1rJi tzerland the Union of South Africa and Firlard
Europe exceeded the rest of the 1trorld in the use of available phosphoric
aec Oer unit area of arable land as Vle11 BS of arab1e land and uermanent
meado1s and pastures
Potash
Eurone including the Soviet Union before tte rar produced nearly 90
ner cent of the vlOrld supply of 1)otash North America and Asia ere tne only
other recorded 1)roducers Pre1rl~r world production of potash by geogrBIJhic areas
was as follows
Area PoduGtion (metric t~ns)
Europe 1 2431067 North America Z 276267 Asia 3 27612 Oceania 0 0 South A~erica 0 0 Africa 0 0
Per cent
889 101 10
The principal country nrocucers of potash prellar lere Germany Frprce
Uni ted States the Soviet Union and Spain Prer potesh production by the
above c01Lltries vias as fo 110s
Country Proellic tion Per cent (net ric tons)
Germeny 1508800 352 Frence 479900 175 Uni ted Stetes 276267 101 Soviet Union 227600 83 Spain 117333 43 Others 122045 46
1iORLD TONIL 2 2 Z14 24 2 1000
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also was the largest consumer of potash
before the war North America WaS second in volume of potash consuneci Prewar
world consumption of potash b~T geographic areaS WaS as follols
Area Rank Consumntion fgtr cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 1 354 779 North ~~erica 2 392~208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 South Am~_Q~ ________ ~6 ____________ ~9~2~2~3~~ __ ~0~~4 __ ---lpoundQRLD TOTAL 2t2plusmn1i-261 1000
Germany Was the largest single prewar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United States France Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption was more than 2 12 ti1es that of t~1e United States 3 34 tbes
that of Franco nearly 5 34 tiJes that of the lTetherlands and mOle than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash consu-TJption by tliese countries vlaS as
follows
Country Conslli1ution ~~~~------------~(~~tric tons)
Gernry Uni ted Stetes France lTetherlords Soviet Union Others ~o~1LD TOTAL
950507 35J424 262365 167447 148250 69268 c 1 -I 2 dmiddotL 20
374 IJ 9 10middot3 66 58
26tL JOOO
Eurone Was the only net exporter of potash before the war The princina1
countries exporting notash were Germany France Spain the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany ex)orted 2 li2 times the quantity exnorted by Frence Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Japan imuorted about 95 per cent of their re-
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of potash
before the uJar North Arlerica was second in volume of potash conS-WJed Preiar
world consumption of potash br geographic areas was as follO18
Area Rank Consypptiol1 Pe~ cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 j 354 779 North America 2 3921208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 ~ Amerilt~a 6 21223 04 ---l[QRLD TOTAL 2t59-1j 61 lOOO
Gennany was the largest single preuJar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United StatesFrAnce Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption W1tS more than 2 12 ti1es thHt of the United States 3 34 times
trat of France nearly 5 34 tiles that of the netherlands and more than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash conslLlltion by these c01lJltries vIas as
follows
Country Qonsum-ption (metric tons)
Germgry 950507 374 United Stetes 353424 139 France 262365 103 11ether umds 167447 66 Soviet Union 148250 58 Others~ ________________ ~6)~~o~~~276~8 ______________ ~2~6~cO --JCRLD TOTAL 251Jl261 JOOO
Europe was the only net exporter of potash before tte war The principal
countries exporting Jotash were Germany France S])~dn the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany e~orted 2 12 tines the qlantity emorted by Prenee Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Janan imported about 95 per cent of their re-
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
4
Table 2 Aparei1t prewlrll Average Annual Ilorld Consumption of COImnercial Plant Foods Per Dni t of Arable Lard and Permanent jJlectdo1Js and Pastures
Geograpi1ic Total lT P205 K20 Division Plant Food -(Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg per Ha) (Kg p ) per J
Europe 67 16 28 2middot3 Others 48 16 2middot3 09 World 59 16 26 L7
lIprm12r annual average of 3 recent years
Table 2 indicates that whereas the JOrld consumption of total plcmt foods
averaged 59 kg per hectare of arable cllld plus permanent meado1s anD 1Jastures
Europe consumed 67 kg per ilectare In the consurnptiol of nitrogen available
phosphoric acid and potash Europe equaled or exceeded the 1torld avorage con-
sumption
Europe as also a net eXporter of esch of these plant fooeS and led in ex-
ports of available phosphoric acid and potash South America -as the only other
net exporter of nitrogen materials
Africa and Forth America lIJere the leading Vorld proclucers of pnoslhate rock
and Europe Was largely dependent upon these sources mostly North Africa for
the rock required in the production of available phosphates South Arrerica and
Asia also exported considerpble phosphoric acid as guano bones and bone-meaL
The world IS notash requirements were supplied principally by Europe and Asia
Nitrogen
Europe including the Soviet Union before the -Jar produced and consumed
more nitrogen than all the rest of the orld Its production 1las fOJr times
that of Asia ancl about five and one-half tines that of either Horth America or
South America Production in lITorth America slightly exceeded that in South
America Pre-rar world production of nitrogen by geogrsphic areas was as follm-rs
- 5 -
Area Rank Production Per CGIL -T~tric tons)
Europe 1 1388197 61~9 Asia 2 346 608 155 lrorth America 3 254104 11middot3 South America 4 247431 11~O Oceenia 5 3846 lt12 t1rica 6 1L~l16 1
tWRLD TOTAL 2 ~41 72_ 10Q0 =
The leading prerar )roducers of nitrogen in order ot their importeEce Vlere
Germsny Chile Japan and the United States Prewar nitrogen production by
these countries l1as ss follows
Country PIoduction Per cent ~~~~-------------7(m~e~t~ric to~u~s~)------~~~~~
Germany 677035 Chile 226557 SaDan 211806
302 101 94
United States 207432 93 Other~ ______________ ~2~1~8~i~9~02 ____________ Lcl2---
~iOR1D TOTAL 2241 7)2 1000 ====~ ~ -~======~~~~~==~====~~~====
The four leading nitrogen 1)rooucing countries produced 59 per cent of the
total ]orld pr00uction 1)rior to the lJar Germany the leading proc1ucer was re-
s1onsible for over 30 ner cent of the world proeuction
Europe including the Soviet Union consumed mora nitrogen before the war
than all the rest of t1e rorld It used three times as much nitrogen as Asia
snd about 3 78 times as much as north America the next largest consumer Prewa
world consumution of n1 trogen by geographic areas Was 8S follows
Area Bank ConSLJIltioll Per c~ni (metriC tons)
Europe 1 1434585 590 Asia 2 469607 193 North America 3 369904 152 Africa 4 94917 3middot9 South A1erica 5 31660 13 Ooeania 6 30438 13
1CRLD TOTAL 2 1 4Jl 1 l14 10O~ j
6 -
Four countries--Germeny United States Japan and France (in that order)-
consumed over 54 per cent of the total vTorld consumption of nitrogen prior to
the War Germany the leading consumer used about the same amount as the
United States and J~lpan combined the next largest consumers PreWar nitroeen
consumution by these countries waS as follows
Countr Comnunntion Per cent ~~~~~------~~(~m~etmiddotricmiddot~t~o~n~s~)~-----~~~~~--
Germany 571384 235 United Stetes 334603 138 Japan 252824 104 France 154770 64 ~O~tl~~e~r~s~~ ________ ~1~21~]~7u~~~3~1 _________ ~4~9~ ____ _ ====~=10=RLD T~=~=L~======2~=4~~1=1~4========~10=O==O=====
Chile Germanl Jorway the Unitec ltingclom and Jian chu-i a led in vCilume
of exports of nitrogen Chile lJorway Manchuria and Yugoslavia exported
8) per cent or more of their Troduction whereas the exports of GerlIlPny lere only
15 to 16 per cent of total production
Only South America and Europe nroduced nitrogen in excess of internal re-
quirements South American exnorts were more thc-n 6 12 times those of Suroue
by volume and re1)resented a high percentage of the entire production 1ltrhereas
Euro-pean eX1)orts -Jere eqUivalent to less than J per cent of production
The Uni ted States although the fourth 1argEst -nro0ucer of nitrogen rltlnked
first in volume of nitrogen irnTJorts Three-eighths of its total nitrogen recuire
ments were obtained from foreign sources nri2cinally from Chile and Can1da
Other large im1)orters were Suain Egynt Den1er~t and Tai1Jan i1 that order
Eurone exceeded all ot~urs in the use of nitrogen Jer unit of arable land and of
arable land and nermanent me8do1vS and 1)astures
Phos1)horic Acid
Euro1)e including the Soviet Union before the war roduced more phosnhoric
acid than 811 the rest of the tvorld It nroduced nearly five-eighths of the
- 7 -
world nroduction of available phosnhoric acid It uroduced hOJever only
one-sixth of the phosphate rock and imported more than three-eighths of the
world nroduction or about 2 14 times its oom uIoduction North America ras
second in volume of production of available pllosphoric acid
The United States was the largest Orelar nroducer of lhospllate rock pro-
ducing one-third of the JOrld total and exporting one-fourth of its output ilie
next largest producer was the Soviet Union followed in order by Tunisia French
Morocco and Naru lhe last three exported 95 to 100 per cent of their production
With the exceution of the Soviet Union nractically all European countries 1n-
cluding the prircipal nroc1ucers of aVailable nhos-cbates obtained 90 ner cent or
more of their 8up1)lies of nhosphate rock from foreign sources Pre1tlar world
production of avai lab Ie -uhOtphori c acid by geographic areas vIas as follows
Area Bank Pod1c tion Per cent (metric tons)
Etlrope I 219 331 621 North America 2 655 5~0 186 Asia 3 339594 96 Oceania 4 257552 7middot3 South Ao-nerica 5 60120 17 Africa 6 24L~45
lJORW 1OTAL ] 230middot~) __ JI)OO -
The principal countries urodlci1g availaole nhosphoric acid -re1trer Iere the
United Stcltes Germeny France the 3elgo-L1~xembourg Economic Gnion and Australit
Prewar availeble uhosuhoric acid nrocluction by these countries was as follows
Courtrl ProQuction Per cent (metric tons)
United Stetes 642642 182 Germany 474700 134 Fr3nce 373898 106 EelEo-Luxembourg 252534 72 Austrelia 2Lr-9554 71 Qthers l2236122~ LV~ 5
~IORLD TOTAL h 530223 1000
- 8
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of avail-
able phosphoric acid before the war It consumed five-eighths of the orld pro-
duction Horth America 1rlaS second in volume of consumption of available pl~os-
Phoric acid Pre18r world consumption of available phosJhoric acid by geocraphic
areas was as follows
Area
EuroOe north America Oceania Asia Africa South America
viLRIJl TQPAI
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6
Conumption __ Per cent (metric tons)
2470614 627 714191 181 351530 89 302098 77
79615 20 24087 Q6
Jmiddot242J~= 100cQ
The United State s 1rIaS the large s t single nre1ar consumer of aVcd lable phcs-
phoric acid followed by Gerr1any Soviet Union Frc-nce and Australia in that
order PreltJar availctble phosphoric acid consumption by t~ese countries Jas as
folloIS
~C~oun~~t~r~~ __________ ~-C~0~n~sym~t1~middoto~n~ ________ ~P~e~r~c~e~n_t~ (metric tons)
675223 564~ 177 386 )731 35)274 249595
United States Germany Sovieii TJlion France Austrlia Others
ifORLD TOTAL 1713136
171 14middot3 98 90 63
1~3 5 1000
Eurone r~nked first as an eX)orter of phosphates other than phosphate rock
but only becCluse she imnorted more then three-eightl1s of the lorld nrocuction of
nhosnhate rock Asia and South Anerica were the only other net eKporters of
phosphates and their volumes approxir1ated t~o-thirds and one-half respectively
that of Eurone The Belgo-Luxembourg Economic Union Fr~l1ce India Japan and
the United Kingdom as countries led in the volume of exports of phosphates other
than nhospha te rock The Belgo Luxembourg Economic Union exported nearly 70 per ce
of its production of available phosphoric aCid
- 9 -
The United States although rankng first as a procucer of available phos-
phoric acid imported considerable quantities of bones bone-mea gt1ano 8nd
ammonium phosphates The largest single importer was Germany Otber large Jn-
porters rere CanadH S1rJi tzerland the Union of South Africa and Firlard
Europe exceeded the rest of the 1trorld in the use of available phosphoric
aec Oer unit area of arable land as Vle11 BS of arab1e land and uermanent
meado1s and pastures
Potash
Eurone including the Soviet Union before tte rar produced nearly 90
ner cent of the vlOrld supply of 1)otash North America and Asia ere tne only
other recorded 1)roducers Pre1rl~r world production of potash by geogrBIJhic areas
was as follows
Area PoduGtion (metric t~ns)
Europe 1 2431067 North America Z 276267 Asia 3 27612 Oceania 0 0 South A~erica 0 0 Africa 0 0
Per cent
889 101 10
The principal country nrocucers of potash prellar lere Germany Frprce
Uni ted States the Soviet Union and Spain Prer potesh production by the
above c01Lltries vias as fo 110s
Country Proellic tion Per cent (net ric tons)
Germeny 1508800 352 Frence 479900 175 Uni ted Stetes 276267 101 Soviet Union 227600 83 Spain 117333 43 Others 122045 46
1iORLD TONIL 2 2 Z14 24 2 1000
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also was the largest consumer of potash
before the war North America WaS second in volume of potash consuneci Prewar
world consumption of potash b~T geographic areaS WaS as follols
Area Rank Consumntion fgtr cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 1 354 779 North ~~erica 2 392~208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 South Am~_Q~ ________ ~6 ____________ ~9~2~2~3~~ __ ~0~~4 __ ---lpoundQRLD TOTAL 2t2plusmn1i-261 1000
Germany Was the largest single prewar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United States France Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption was more than 2 12 ti1es that of t~1e United States 3 34 tbes
that of Franco nearly 5 34 tiJes that of the lTetherlands and mOle than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash consu-TJption by tliese countries vlaS as
follows
Country Conslli1ution ~~~~------------~(~~tric tons)
Gernry Uni ted Stetes France lTetherlords Soviet Union Others ~o~1LD TOTAL
950507 35J424 262365 167447 148250 69268 c 1 -I 2 dmiddotL 20
374 IJ 9 10middot3 66 58
26tL JOOO
Eurone Was the only net exporter of potash before the war The princina1
countries exporting notash were Germany France Spain the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany ex)orted 2 li2 times the quantity exnorted by Frence Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Japan imuorted about 95 per cent of their re-
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of potash
before the uJar North Arlerica was second in volume of potash conS-WJed Preiar
world consumption of potash br geographic areas was as follO18
Area Rank Consypptiol1 Pe~ cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 j 354 779 North America 2 3921208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 ~ Amerilt~a 6 21223 04 ---l[QRLD TOTAL 2t59-1j 61 lOOO
Gennany was the largest single preuJar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United StatesFrAnce Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption W1tS more than 2 12 ti1es thHt of the United States 3 34 times
trat of France nearly 5 34 tiles that of the netherlands and more than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash conslLlltion by these c01lJltries vIas as
follows
Country Qonsum-ption (metric tons)
Germgry 950507 374 United Stetes 353424 139 France 262365 103 11ether umds 167447 66 Soviet Union 148250 58 Others~ ________________ ~6)~~o~~~276~8 ______________ ~2~6~cO --JCRLD TOTAL 251Jl261 JOOO
Europe was the only net exporter of potash before tte war The principal
countries exporting Jotash were Germany France S])~dn the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany e~orted 2 12 tines the qlantity emorted by Prenee Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Janan imported about 95 per cent of their re-
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 5 -
Area Rank Production Per CGIL -T~tric tons)
Europe 1 1388197 61~9 Asia 2 346 608 155 lrorth America 3 254104 11middot3 South America 4 247431 11~O Oceenia 5 3846 lt12 t1rica 6 1L~l16 1
tWRLD TOTAL 2 ~41 72_ 10Q0 =
The leading prerar )roducers of nitrogen in order ot their importeEce Vlere
Germsny Chile Japan and the United States Prewar nitrogen production by
these countries l1as ss follows
Country PIoduction Per cent ~~~~-------------7(m~e~t~ric to~u~s~)------~~~~~
Germany 677035 Chile 226557 SaDan 211806
302 101 94
United States 207432 93 Other~ ______________ ~2~1~8~i~9~02 ____________ Lcl2---
~iOR1D TOTAL 2241 7)2 1000 ====~ ~ -~======~~~~~==~====~~~====
The four leading nitrogen 1)rooucing countries produced 59 per cent of the
total ]orld pr00uction 1)rior to the lJar Germany the leading proc1ucer was re-
s1onsible for over 30 ner cent of the world proeuction
Europe including the Soviet Union consumed mora nitrogen before the war
than all the rest of t1e rorld It used three times as much nitrogen as Asia
snd about 3 78 times as much as north America the next largest consumer Prewa
world consumution of n1 trogen by geographic areas Was 8S follows
Area Bank ConSLJIltioll Per c~ni (metriC tons)
Europe 1 1434585 590 Asia 2 469607 193 North America 3 369904 152 Africa 4 94917 3middot9 South A1erica 5 31660 13 Ooeania 6 30438 13
1CRLD TOTAL 2 1 4Jl 1 l14 10O~ j
6 -
Four countries--Germeny United States Japan and France (in that order)-
consumed over 54 per cent of the total vTorld consumption of nitrogen prior to
the War Germany the leading consumer used about the same amount as the
United States and J~lpan combined the next largest consumers PreWar nitroeen
consumution by these countries waS as follows
Countr Comnunntion Per cent ~~~~~------~~(~m~etmiddotricmiddot~t~o~n~s~)~-----~~~~~--
Germany 571384 235 United Stetes 334603 138 Japan 252824 104 France 154770 64 ~O~tl~~e~r~s~~ ________ ~1~21~]~7u~~~3~1 _________ ~4~9~ ____ _ ====~=10=RLD T~=~=L~======2~=4~~1=1~4========~10=O==O=====
Chile Germanl Jorway the Unitec ltingclom and Jian chu-i a led in vCilume
of exports of nitrogen Chile lJorway Manchuria and Yugoslavia exported
8) per cent or more of their Troduction whereas the exports of GerlIlPny lere only
15 to 16 per cent of total production
Only South America and Europe nroduced nitrogen in excess of internal re-
quirements South American exnorts were more thc-n 6 12 times those of Suroue
by volume and re1)resented a high percentage of the entire production 1ltrhereas
Euro-pean eX1)orts -Jere eqUivalent to less than J per cent of production
The Uni ted States although the fourth 1argEst -nro0ucer of nitrogen rltlnked
first in volume of nitrogen irnTJorts Three-eighths of its total nitrogen recuire
ments were obtained from foreign sources nri2cinally from Chile and Can1da
Other large im1)orters were Suain Egynt Den1er~t and Tai1Jan i1 that order
Eurone exceeded all ot~urs in the use of nitrogen Jer unit of arable land and of
arable land and nermanent me8do1vS and 1)astures
Phos1)horic Acid
Euro1)e including the Soviet Union before the war roduced more phosnhoric
acid than 811 the rest of the tvorld It nroduced nearly five-eighths of the
- 7 -
world nroduction of available phosnhoric acid It uroduced hOJever only
one-sixth of the phosphate rock and imported more than three-eighths of the
world nroduction or about 2 14 times its oom uIoduction North America ras
second in volume of production of available pllosphoric acid
The United States was the largest Orelar nroducer of lhospllate rock pro-
ducing one-third of the JOrld total and exporting one-fourth of its output ilie
next largest producer was the Soviet Union followed in order by Tunisia French
Morocco and Naru lhe last three exported 95 to 100 per cent of their production
With the exceution of the Soviet Union nractically all European countries 1n-
cluding the prircipal nroc1ucers of aVailable nhos-cbates obtained 90 ner cent or
more of their 8up1)lies of nhosphate rock from foreign sources Pre1tlar world
production of avai lab Ie -uhOtphori c acid by geographic areas vIas as follows
Area Bank Pod1c tion Per cent (metric tons)
Etlrope I 219 331 621 North America 2 655 5~0 186 Asia 3 339594 96 Oceania 4 257552 7middot3 South Ao-nerica 5 60120 17 Africa 6 24L~45
lJORW 1OTAL ] 230middot~) __ JI)OO -
The principal countries urodlci1g availaole nhosphoric acid -re1trer Iere the
United Stcltes Germeny France the 3elgo-L1~xembourg Economic Gnion and Australit
Prewar availeble uhosuhoric acid nrocluction by these countries was as follows
Courtrl ProQuction Per cent (metric tons)
United Stetes 642642 182 Germany 474700 134 Fr3nce 373898 106 EelEo-Luxembourg 252534 72 Austrelia 2Lr-9554 71 Qthers l2236122~ LV~ 5
~IORLD TOTAL h 530223 1000
- 8
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of avail-
able phosphoric acid before the war It consumed five-eighths of the orld pro-
duction Horth America 1rlaS second in volume of consumption of available pl~os-
Phoric acid Pre18r world consumption of available phosJhoric acid by geocraphic
areas was as follows
Area
EuroOe north America Oceania Asia Africa South America
viLRIJl TQPAI
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6
Conumption __ Per cent (metric tons)
2470614 627 714191 181 351530 89 302098 77
79615 20 24087 Q6
Jmiddot242J~= 100cQ
The United State s 1rIaS the large s t single nre1ar consumer of aVcd lable phcs-
phoric acid followed by Gerr1any Soviet Union Frc-nce and Australia in that
order PreltJar availctble phosphoric acid consumption by t~ese countries Jas as
folloIS
~C~oun~~t~r~~ __________ ~-C~0~n~sym~t1~middoto~n~ ________ ~P~e~r~c~e~n_t~ (metric tons)
675223 564~ 177 386 )731 35)274 249595
United States Germany Sovieii TJlion France Austrlia Others
ifORLD TOTAL 1713136
171 14middot3 98 90 63
1~3 5 1000
Eurone r~nked first as an eX)orter of phosphates other than phosphate rock
but only becCluse she imnorted more then three-eightl1s of the lorld nrocuction of
nhosnhate rock Asia and South Anerica were the only other net eKporters of
phosphates and their volumes approxir1ated t~o-thirds and one-half respectively
that of Eurone The Belgo-Luxembourg Economic Union Fr~l1ce India Japan and
the United Kingdom as countries led in the volume of exports of phosphates other
than nhospha te rock The Belgo Luxembourg Economic Union exported nearly 70 per ce
of its production of available phosphoric aCid
- 9 -
The United States although rankng first as a procucer of available phos-
phoric acid imported considerable quantities of bones bone-mea gt1ano 8nd
ammonium phosphates The largest single importer was Germany Otber large Jn-
porters rere CanadH S1rJi tzerland the Union of South Africa and Firlard
Europe exceeded the rest of the 1trorld in the use of available phosphoric
aec Oer unit area of arable land as Vle11 BS of arab1e land and uermanent
meado1s and pastures
Potash
Eurone including the Soviet Union before tte rar produced nearly 90
ner cent of the vlOrld supply of 1)otash North America and Asia ere tne only
other recorded 1)roducers Pre1rl~r world production of potash by geogrBIJhic areas
was as follows
Area PoduGtion (metric t~ns)
Europe 1 2431067 North America Z 276267 Asia 3 27612 Oceania 0 0 South A~erica 0 0 Africa 0 0
Per cent
889 101 10
The principal country nrocucers of potash prellar lere Germany Frprce
Uni ted States the Soviet Union and Spain Prer potesh production by the
above c01Lltries vias as fo 110s
Country Proellic tion Per cent (net ric tons)
Germeny 1508800 352 Frence 479900 175 Uni ted Stetes 276267 101 Soviet Union 227600 83 Spain 117333 43 Others 122045 46
1iORLD TONIL 2 2 Z14 24 2 1000
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also was the largest consumer of potash
before the war North America WaS second in volume of potash consuneci Prewar
world consumption of potash b~T geographic areaS WaS as follols
Area Rank Consumntion fgtr cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 1 354 779 North ~~erica 2 392~208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 South Am~_Q~ ________ ~6 ____________ ~9~2~2~3~~ __ ~0~~4 __ ---lpoundQRLD TOTAL 2t2plusmn1i-261 1000
Germany Was the largest single prewar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United States France Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption was more than 2 12 ti1es that of t~1e United States 3 34 tbes
that of Franco nearly 5 34 tiJes that of the lTetherlands and mOle than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash consu-TJption by tliese countries vlaS as
follows
Country Conslli1ution ~~~~------------~(~~tric tons)
Gernry Uni ted Stetes France lTetherlords Soviet Union Others ~o~1LD TOTAL
950507 35J424 262365 167447 148250 69268 c 1 -I 2 dmiddotL 20
374 IJ 9 10middot3 66 58
26tL JOOO
Eurone Was the only net exporter of potash before the war The princina1
countries exporting notash were Germany France Spain the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany ex)orted 2 li2 times the quantity exnorted by Frence Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Japan imuorted about 95 per cent of their re-
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of potash
before the uJar North Arlerica was second in volume of potash conS-WJed Preiar
world consumption of potash br geographic areas was as follO18
Area Rank Consypptiol1 Pe~ cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 j 354 779 North America 2 3921208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 ~ Amerilt~a 6 21223 04 ---l[QRLD TOTAL 2t59-1j 61 lOOO
Gennany was the largest single preuJar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United StatesFrAnce Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption W1tS more than 2 12 ti1es thHt of the United States 3 34 times
trat of France nearly 5 34 tiles that of the netherlands and more than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash conslLlltion by these c01lJltries vIas as
follows
Country Qonsum-ption (metric tons)
Germgry 950507 374 United Stetes 353424 139 France 262365 103 11ether umds 167447 66 Soviet Union 148250 58 Others~ ________________ ~6)~~o~~~276~8 ______________ ~2~6~cO --JCRLD TOTAL 251Jl261 JOOO
Europe was the only net exporter of potash before tte war The principal
countries exporting Jotash were Germany France S])~dn the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany e~orted 2 12 tines the qlantity emorted by Prenee Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Janan imported about 95 per cent of their re-
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
6 -
Four countries--Germeny United States Japan and France (in that order)-
consumed over 54 per cent of the total vTorld consumption of nitrogen prior to
the War Germany the leading consumer used about the same amount as the
United States and J~lpan combined the next largest consumers PreWar nitroeen
consumution by these countries waS as follows
Countr Comnunntion Per cent ~~~~~------~~(~m~etmiddotricmiddot~t~o~n~s~)~-----~~~~~--
Germany 571384 235 United Stetes 334603 138 Japan 252824 104 France 154770 64 ~O~tl~~e~r~s~~ ________ ~1~21~]~7u~~~3~1 _________ ~4~9~ ____ _ ====~=10=RLD T~=~=L~======2~=4~~1=1~4========~10=O==O=====
Chile Germanl Jorway the Unitec ltingclom and Jian chu-i a led in vCilume
of exports of nitrogen Chile lJorway Manchuria and Yugoslavia exported
8) per cent or more of their Troduction whereas the exports of GerlIlPny lere only
15 to 16 per cent of total production
Only South America and Europe nroduced nitrogen in excess of internal re-
quirements South American exnorts were more thc-n 6 12 times those of Suroue
by volume and re1)resented a high percentage of the entire production 1ltrhereas
Euro-pean eX1)orts -Jere eqUivalent to less than J per cent of production
The Uni ted States although the fourth 1argEst -nro0ucer of nitrogen rltlnked
first in volume of nitrogen irnTJorts Three-eighths of its total nitrogen recuire
ments were obtained from foreign sources nri2cinally from Chile and Can1da
Other large im1)orters were Suain Egynt Den1er~t and Tai1Jan i1 that order
Eurone exceeded all ot~urs in the use of nitrogen Jer unit of arable land and of
arable land and nermanent me8do1vS and 1)astures
Phos1)horic Acid
Euro1)e including the Soviet Union before the war roduced more phosnhoric
acid than 811 the rest of the tvorld It nroduced nearly five-eighths of the
- 7 -
world nroduction of available phosnhoric acid It uroduced hOJever only
one-sixth of the phosphate rock and imported more than three-eighths of the
world nroduction or about 2 14 times its oom uIoduction North America ras
second in volume of production of available pllosphoric acid
The United States was the largest Orelar nroducer of lhospllate rock pro-
ducing one-third of the JOrld total and exporting one-fourth of its output ilie
next largest producer was the Soviet Union followed in order by Tunisia French
Morocco and Naru lhe last three exported 95 to 100 per cent of their production
With the exceution of the Soviet Union nractically all European countries 1n-
cluding the prircipal nroc1ucers of aVailable nhos-cbates obtained 90 ner cent or
more of their 8up1)lies of nhosphate rock from foreign sources Pre1tlar world
production of avai lab Ie -uhOtphori c acid by geographic areas vIas as follows
Area Bank Pod1c tion Per cent (metric tons)
Etlrope I 219 331 621 North America 2 655 5~0 186 Asia 3 339594 96 Oceania 4 257552 7middot3 South Ao-nerica 5 60120 17 Africa 6 24L~45
lJORW 1OTAL ] 230middot~) __ JI)OO -
The principal countries urodlci1g availaole nhosphoric acid -re1trer Iere the
United Stcltes Germeny France the 3elgo-L1~xembourg Economic Gnion and Australit
Prewar availeble uhosuhoric acid nrocluction by these countries was as follows
Courtrl ProQuction Per cent (metric tons)
United Stetes 642642 182 Germany 474700 134 Fr3nce 373898 106 EelEo-Luxembourg 252534 72 Austrelia 2Lr-9554 71 Qthers l2236122~ LV~ 5
~IORLD TOTAL h 530223 1000
- 8
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of avail-
able phosphoric acid before the war It consumed five-eighths of the orld pro-
duction Horth America 1rlaS second in volume of consumption of available pl~os-
Phoric acid Pre18r world consumption of available phosJhoric acid by geocraphic
areas was as follows
Area
EuroOe north America Oceania Asia Africa South America
viLRIJl TQPAI
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6
Conumption __ Per cent (metric tons)
2470614 627 714191 181 351530 89 302098 77
79615 20 24087 Q6
Jmiddot242J~= 100cQ
The United State s 1rIaS the large s t single nre1ar consumer of aVcd lable phcs-
phoric acid followed by Gerr1any Soviet Union Frc-nce and Australia in that
order PreltJar availctble phosphoric acid consumption by t~ese countries Jas as
folloIS
~C~oun~~t~r~~ __________ ~-C~0~n~sym~t1~middoto~n~ ________ ~P~e~r~c~e~n_t~ (metric tons)
675223 564~ 177 386 )731 35)274 249595
United States Germany Sovieii TJlion France Austrlia Others
ifORLD TOTAL 1713136
171 14middot3 98 90 63
1~3 5 1000
Eurone r~nked first as an eX)orter of phosphates other than phosphate rock
but only becCluse she imnorted more then three-eightl1s of the lorld nrocuction of
nhosnhate rock Asia and South Anerica were the only other net eKporters of
phosphates and their volumes approxir1ated t~o-thirds and one-half respectively
that of Eurone The Belgo-Luxembourg Economic Union Fr~l1ce India Japan and
the United Kingdom as countries led in the volume of exports of phosphates other
than nhospha te rock The Belgo Luxembourg Economic Union exported nearly 70 per ce
of its production of available phosphoric aCid
- 9 -
The United States although rankng first as a procucer of available phos-
phoric acid imported considerable quantities of bones bone-mea gt1ano 8nd
ammonium phosphates The largest single importer was Germany Otber large Jn-
porters rere CanadH S1rJi tzerland the Union of South Africa and Firlard
Europe exceeded the rest of the 1trorld in the use of available phosphoric
aec Oer unit area of arable land as Vle11 BS of arab1e land and uermanent
meado1s and pastures
Potash
Eurone including the Soviet Union before tte rar produced nearly 90
ner cent of the vlOrld supply of 1)otash North America and Asia ere tne only
other recorded 1)roducers Pre1rl~r world production of potash by geogrBIJhic areas
was as follows
Area PoduGtion (metric t~ns)
Europe 1 2431067 North America Z 276267 Asia 3 27612 Oceania 0 0 South A~erica 0 0 Africa 0 0
Per cent
889 101 10
The principal country nrocucers of potash prellar lere Germany Frprce
Uni ted States the Soviet Union and Spain Prer potesh production by the
above c01Lltries vias as fo 110s
Country Proellic tion Per cent (net ric tons)
Germeny 1508800 352 Frence 479900 175 Uni ted Stetes 276267 101 Soviet Union 227600 83 Spain 117333 43 Others 122045 46
1iORLD TONIL 2 2 Z14 24 2 1000
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also was the largest consumer of potash
before the war North America WaS second in volume of potash consuneci Prewar
world consumption of potash b~T geographic areaS WaS as follols
Area Rank Consumntion fgtr cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 1 354 779 North ~~erica 2 392~208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 South Am~_Q~ ________ ~6 ____________ ~9~2~2~3~~ __ ~0~~4 __ ---lpoundQRLD TOTAL 2t2plusmn1i-261 1000
Germany Was the largest single prewar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United States France Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption was more than 2 12 ti1es that of t~1e United States 3 34 tbes
that of Franco nearly 5 34 tiJes that of the lTetherlands and mOle than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash consu-TJption by tliese countries vlaS as
follows
Country Conslli1ution ~~~~------------~(~~tric tons)
Gernry Uni ted Stetes France lTetherlords Soviet Union Others ~o~1LD TOTAL
950507 35J424 262365 167447 148250 69268 c 1 -I 2 dmiddotL 20
374 IJ 9 10middot3 66 58
26tL JOOO
Eurone Was the only net exporter of potash before the war The princina1
countries exporting notash were Germany France Spain the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany ex)orted 2 li2 times the quantity exnorted by Frence Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Japan imuorted about 95 per cent of their re-
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of potash
before the uJar North Arlerica was second in volume of potash conS-WJed Preiar
world consumption of potash br geographic areas was as follO18
Area Rank Consypptiol1 Pe~ cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 j 354 779 North America 2 3921208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 ~ Amerilt~a 6 21223 04 ---l[QRLD TOTAL 2t59-1j 61 lOOO
Gennany was the largest single preuJar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United StatesFrAnce Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption W1tS more than 2 12 ti1es thHt of the United States 3 34 times
trat of France nearly 5 34 tiles that of the netherlands and more than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash conslLlltion by these c01lJltries vIas as
follows
Country Qonsum-ption (metric tons)
Germgry 950507 374 United Stetes 353424 139 France 262365 103 11ether umds 167447 66 Soviet Union 148250 58 Others~ ________________ ~6)~~o~~~276~8 ______________ ~2~6~cO --JCRLD TOTAL 251Jl261 JOOO
Europe was the only net exporter of potash before tte war The principal
countries exporting Jotash were Germany France S])~dn the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany e~orted 2 12 tines the qlantity emorted by Prenee Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Janan imported about 95 per cent of their re-
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 7 -
world nroduction of available phosnhoric acid It uroduced hOJever only
one-sixth of the phosphate rock and imported more than three-eighths of the
world nroduction or about 2 14 times its oom uIoduction North America ras
second in volume of production of available pllosphoric acid
The United States was the largest Orelar nroducer of lhospllate rock pro-
ducing one-third of the JOrld total and exporting one-fourth of its output ilie
next largest producer was the Soviet Union followed in order by Tunisia French
Morocco and Naru lhe last three exported 95 to 100 per cent of their production
With the exceution of the Soviet Union nractically all European countries 1n-
cluding the prircipal nroc1ucers of aVailable nhos-cbates obtained 90 ner cent or
more of their 8up1)lies of nhosphate rock from foreign sources Pre1tlar world
production of avai lab Ie -uhOtphori c acid by geographic areas vIas as follows
Area Bank Pod1c tion Per cent (metric tons)
Etlrope I 219 331 621 North America 2 655 5~0 186 Asia 3 339594 96 Oceania 4 257552 7middot3 South Ao-nerica 5 60120 17 Africa 6 24L~45
lJORW 1OTAL ] 230middot~) __ JI)OO -
The principal countries urodlci1g availaole nhosphoric acid -re1trer Iere the
United Stcltes Germeny France the 3elgo-L1~xembourg Economic Gnion and Australit
Prewar availeble uhosuhoric acid nrocluction by these countries was as follows
Courtrl ProQuction Per cent (metric tons)
United Stetes 642642 182 Germany 474700 134 Fr3nce 373898 106 EelEo-Luxembourg 252534 72 Austrelia 2Lr-9554 71 Qthers l2236122~ LV~ 5
~IORLD TOTAL h 530223 1000
- 8
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of avail-
able phosphoric acid before the war It consumed five-eighths of the orld pro-
duction Horth America 1rlaS second in volume of consumption of available pl~os-
Phoric acid Pre18r world consumption of available phosJhoric acid by geocraphic
areas was as follows
Area
EuroOe north America Oceania Asia Africa South America
viLRIJl TQPAI
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6
Conumption __ Per cent (metric tons)
2470614 627 714191 181 351530 89 302098 77
79615 20 24087 Q6
Jmiddot242J~= 100cQ
The United State s 1rIaS the large s t single nre1ar consumer of aVcd lable phcs-
phoric acid followed by Gerr1any Soviet Union Frc-nce and Australia in that
order PreltJar availctble phosphoric acid consumption by t~ese countries Jas as
folloIS
~C~oun~~t~r~~ __________ ~-C~0~n~sym~t1~middoto~n~ ________ ~P~e~r~c~e~n_t~ (metric tons)
675223 564~ 177 386 )731 35)274 249595
United States Germany Sovieii TJlion France Austrlia Others
ifORLD TOTAL 1713136
171 14middot3 98 90 63
1~3 5 1000
Eurone r~nked first as an eX)orter of phosphates other than phosphate rock
but only becCluse she imnorted more then three-eightl1s of the lorld nrocuction of
nhosnhate rock Asia and South Anerica were the only other net eKporters of
phosphates and their volumes approxir1ated t~o-thirds and one-half respectively
that of Eurone The Belgo-Luxembourg Economic Union Fr~l1ce India Japan and
the United Kingdom as countries led in the volume of exports of phosphates other
than nhospha te rock The Belgo Luxembourg Economic Union exported nearly 70 per ce
of its production of available phosphoric aCid
- 9 -
The United States although rankng first as a procucer of available phos-
phoric acid imported considerable quantities of bones bone-mea gt1ano 8nd
ammonium phosphates The largest single importer was Germany Otber large Jn-
porters rere CanadH S1rJi tzerland the Union of South Africa and Firlard
Europe exceeded the rest of the 1trorld in the use of available phosphoric
aec Oer unit area of arable land as Vle11 BS of arab1e land and uermanent
meado1s and pastures
Potash
Eurone including the Soviet Union before tte rar produced nearly 90
ner cent of the vlOrld supply of 1)otash North America and Asia ere tne only
other recorded 1)roducers Pre1rl~r world production of potash by geogrBIJhic areas
was as follows
Area PoduGtion (metric t~ns)
Europe 1 2431067 North America Z 276267 Asia 3 27612 Oceania 0 0 South A~erica 0 0 Africa 0 0
Per cent
889 101 10
The principal country nrocucers of potash prellar lere Germany Frprce
Uni ted States the Soviet Union and Spain Prer potesh production by the
above c01Lltries vias as fo 110s
Country Proellic tion Per cent (net ric tons)
Germeny 1508800 352 Frence 479900 175 Uni ted Stetes 276267 101 Soviet Union 227600 83 Spain 117333 43 Others 122045 46
1iORLD TONIL 2 2 Z14 24 2 1000
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also was the largest consumer of potash
before the war North America WaS second in volume of potash consuneci Prewar
world consumption of potash b~T geographic areaS WaS as follols
Area Rank Consumntion fgtr cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 1 354 779 North ~~erica 2 392~208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 South Am~_Q~ ________ ~6 ____________ ~9~2~2~3~~ __ ~0~~4 __ ---lpoundQRLD TOTAL 2t2plusmn1i-261 1000
Germany Was the largest single prewar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United States France Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption was more than 2 12 ti1es that of t~1e United States 3 34 tbes
that of Franco nearly 5 34 tiJes that of the lTetherlands and mOle than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash consu-TJption by tliese countries vlaS as
follows
Country Conslli1ution ~~~~------------~(~~tric tons)
Gernry Uni ted Stetes France lTetherlords Soviet Union Others ~o~1LD TOTAL
950507 35J424 262365 167447 148250 69268 c 1 -I 2 dmiddotL 20
374 IJ 9 10middot3 66 58
26tL JOOO
Eurone Was the only net exporter of potash before the war The princina1
countries exporting notash were Germany France Spain the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany ex)orted 2 li2 times the quantity exnorted by Frence Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Japan imuorted about 95 per cent of their re-
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of potash
before the uJar North Arlerica was second in volume of potash conS-WJed Preiar
world consumption of potash br geographic areas was as follO18
Area Rank Consypptiol1 Pe~ cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 j 354 779 North America 2 3921208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 ~ Amerilt~a 6 21223 04 ---l[QRLD TOTAL 2t59-1j 61 lOOO
Gennany was the largest single preuJar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United StatesFrAnce Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption W1tS more than 2 12 ti1es thHt of the United States 3 34 times
trat of France nearly 5 34 tiles that of the netherlands and more than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash conslLlltion by these c01lJltries vIas as
follows
Country Qonsum-ption (metric tons)
Germgry 950507 374 United Stetes 353424 139 France 262365 103 11ether umds 167447 66 Soviet Union 148250 58 Others~ ________________ ~6)~~o~~~276~8 ______________ ~2~6~cO --JCRLD TOTAL 251Jl261 JOOO
Europe was the only net exporter of potash before tte war The principal
countries exporting Jotash were Germany France S])~dn the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany e~orted 2 12 tines the qlantity emorted by Prenee Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Janan imported about 95 per cent of their re-
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 8
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of avail-
able phosphoric acid before the war It consumed five-eighths of the orld pro-
duction Horth America 1rlaS second in volume of consumption of available pl~os-
Phoric acid Pre18r world consumption of available phosJhoric acid by geocraphic
areas was as follows
Area
EuroOe north America Oceania Asia Africa South America
viLRIJl TQPAI
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6
Conumption __ Per cent (metric tons)
2470614 627 714191 181 351530 89 302098 77
79615 20 24087 Q6
Jmiddot242J~= 100cQ
The United State s 1rIaS the large s t single nre1ar consumer of aVcd lable phcs-
phoric acid followed by Gerr1any Soviet Union Frc-nce and Australia in that
order PreltJar availctble phosphoric acid consumption by t~ese countries Jas as
folloIS
~C~oun~~t~r~~ __________ ~-C~0~n~sym~t1~middoto~n~ ________ ~P~e~r~c~e~n_t~ (metric tons)
675223 564~ 177 386 )731 35)274 249595
United States Germany Sovieii TJlion France Austrlia Others
ifORLD TOTAL 1713136
171 14middot3 98 90 63
1~3 5 1000
Eurone r~nked first as an eX)orter of phosphates other than phosphate rock
but only becCluse she imnorted more then three-eightl1s of the lorld nrocuction of
nhosnhate rock Asia and South Anerica were the only other net eKporters of
phosphates and their volumes approxir1ated t~o-thirds and one-half respectively
that of Eurone The Belgo-Luxembourg Economic Union Fr~l1ce India Japan and
the United Kingdom as countries led in the volume of exports of phosphates other
than nhospha te rock The Belgo Luxembourg Economic Union exported nearly 70 per ce
of its production of available phosphoric aCid
- 9 -
The United States although rankng first as a procucer of available phos-
phoric acid imported considerable quantities of bones bone-mea gt1ano 8nd
ammonium phosphates The largest single importer was Germany Otber large Jn-
porters rere CanadH S1rJi tzerland the Union of South Africa and Firlard
Europe exceeded the rest of the 1trorld in the use of available phosphoric
aec Oer unit area of arable land as Vle11 BS of arab1e land and uermanent
meado1s and pastures
Potash
Eurone including the Soviet Union before tte rar produced nearly 90
ner cent of the vlOrld supply of 1)otash North America and Asia ere tne only
other recorded 1)roducers Pre1rl~r world production of potash by geogrBIJhic areas
was as follows
Area PoduGtion (metric t~ns)
Europe 1 2431067 North America Z 276267 Asia 3 27612 Oceania 0 0 South A~erica 0 0 Africa 0 0
Per cent
889 101 10
The principal country nrocucers of potash prellar lere Germany Frprce
Uni ted States the Soviet Union and Spain Prer potesh production by the
above c01Lltries vias as fo 110s
Country Proellic tion Per cent (net ric tons)
Germeny 1508800 352 Frence 479900 175 Uni ted Stetes 276267 101 Soviet Union 227600 83 Spain 117333 43 Others 122045 46
1iORLD TONIL 2 2 Z14 24 2 1000
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also was the largest consumer of potash
before the war North America WaS second in volume of potash consuneci Prewar
world consumption of potash b~T geographic areaS WaS as follols
Area Rank Consumntion fgtr cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 1 354 779 North ~~erica 2 392~208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 South Am~_Q~ ________ ~6 ____________ ~9~2~2~3~~ __ ~0~~4 __ ---lpoundQRLD TOTAL 2t2plusmn1i-261 1000
Germany Was the largest single prewar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United States France Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption was more than 2 12 ti1es that of t~1e United States 3 34 tbes
that of Franco nearly 5 34 tiJes that of the lTetherlands and mOle than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash consu-TJption by tliese countries vlaS as
follows
Country Conslli1ution ~~~~------------~(~~tric tons)
Gernry Uni ted Stetes France lTetherlords Soviet Union Others ~o~1LD TOTAL
950507 35J424 262365 167447 148250 69268 c 1 -I 2 dmiddotL 20
374 IJ 9 10middot3 66 58
26tL JOOO
Eurone Was the only net exporter of potash before the war The princina1
countries exporting notash were Germany France Spain the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany ex)orted 2 li2 times the quantity exnorted by Frence Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Japan imuorted about 95 per cent of their re-
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of potash
before the uJar North Arlerica was second in volume of potash conS-WJed Preiar
world consumption of potash br geographic areas was as follO18
Area Rank Consypptiol1 Pe~ cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 j 354 779 North America 2 3921208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 ~ Amerilt~a 6 21223 04 ---l[QRLD TOTAL 2t59-1j 61 lOOO
Gennany was the largest single preuJar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United StatesFrAnce Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption W1tS more than 2 12 ti1es thHt of the United States 3 34 times
trat of France nearly 5 34 tiles that of the netherlands and more than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash conslLlltion by these c01lJltries vIas as
follows
Country Qonsum-ption (metric tons)
Germgry 950507 374 United Stetes 353424 139 France 262365 103 11ether umds 167447 66 Soviet Union 148250 58 Others~ ________________ ~6)~~o~~~276~8 ______________ ~2~6~cO --JCRLD TOTAL 251Jl261 JOOO
Europe was the only net exporter of potash before tte war The principal
countries exporting Jotash were Germany France S])~dn the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany e~orted 2 12 tines the qlantity emorted by Prenee Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Janan imported about 95 per cent of their re-
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 9 -
The United States although rankng first as a procucer of available phos-
phoric acid imported considerable quantities of bones bone-mea gt1ano 8nd
ammonium phosphates The largest single importer was Germany Otber large Jn-
porters rere CanadH S1rJi tzerland the Union of South Africa and Firlard
Europe exceeded the rest of the 1trorld in the use of available phosphoric
aec Oer unit area of arable land as Vle11 BS of arab1e land and uermanent
meado1s and pastures
Potash
Eurone including the Soviet Union before tte rar produced nearly 90
ner cent of the vlOrld supply of 1)otash North America and Asia ere tne only
other recorded 1)roducers Pre1rl~r world production of potash by geogrBIJhic areas
was as follows
Area PoduGtion (metric t~ns)
Europe 1 2431067 North America Z 276267 Asia 3 27612 Oceania 0 0 South A~erica 0 0 Africa 0 0
Per cent
889 101 10
The principal country nrocucers of potash prellar lere Germany Frprce
Uni ted States the Soviet Union and Spain Prer potesh production by the
above c01Lltries vias as fo 110s
Country Proellic tion Per cent (net ric tons)
Germeny 1508800 352 Frence 479900 175 Uni ted Stetes 276267 101 Soviet Union 227600 83 Spain 117333 43 Others 122045 46
1iORLD TONIL 2 2 Z14 24 2 1000
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also was the largest consumer of potash
before the war North America WaS second in volume of potash consuneci Prewar
world consumption of potash b~T geographic areaS WaS as follols
Area Rank Consumntion fgtr cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 1 354 779 North ~~erica 2 392~208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 South Am~_Q~ ________ ~6 ____________ ~9~2~2~3~~ __ ~0~~4 __ ---lpoundQRLD TOTAL 2t2plusmn1i-261 1000
Germany Was the largest single prewar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United States France Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption was more than 2 12 ti1es that of t~1e United States 3 34 tbes
that of Franco nearly 5 34 tiJes that of the lTetherlands and mOle than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash consu-TJption by tliese countries vlaS as
follows
Country Conslli1ution ~~~~------------~(~~tric tons)
Gernry Uni ted Stetes France lTetherlords Soviet Union Others ~o~1LD TOTAL
950507 35J424 262365 167447 148250 69268 c 1 -I 2 dmiddotL 20
374 IJ 9 10middot3 66 58
26tL JOOO
Eurone Was the only net exporter of potash before the war The princina1
countries exporting notash were Germany France Spain the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany ex)orted 2 li2 times the quantity exnorted by Frence Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Japan imuorted about 95 per cent of their re-
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of potash
before the uJar North Arlerica was second in volume of potash conS-WJed Preiar
world consumption of potash br geographic areas was as follO18
Area Rank Consypptiol1 Pe~ cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 j 354 779 North America 2 3921208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 ~ Amerilt~a 6 21223 04 ---l[QRLD TOTAL 2t59-1j 61 lOOO
Gennany was the largest single preuJar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United StatesFrAnce Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption W1tS more than 2 12 ti1es thHt of the United States 3 34 times
trat of France nearly 5 34 tiles that of the netherlands and more than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash conslLlltion by these c01lJltries vIas as
follows
Country Qonsum-ption (metric tons)
Germgry 950507 374 United Stetes 353424 139 France 262365 103 11ether umds 167447 66 Soviet Union 148250 58 Others~ ________________ ~6)~~o~~~276~8 ______________ ~2~6~cO --JCRLD TOTAL 251Jl261 JOOO
Europe was the only net exporter of potash before tte war The principal
countries exporting Jotash were Germany France S])~dn the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany e~orted 2 12 tines the qlantity emorted by Prenee Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Janan imported about 95 per cent of their re-
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also was the largest consumer of potash
before the war North America WaS second in volume of potash consuneci Prewar
world consumption of potash b~T geographic areaS WaS as follols
Area Rank Consumntion fgtr cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 1 354 779 North ~~erica 2 392~208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 South Am~_Q~ ________ ~6 ____________ ~9~2~2~3~~ __ ~0~~4 __ ---lpoundQRLD TOTAL 2t2plusmn1i-261 1000
Germany Was the largest single prewar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United States France Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption was more than 2 12 ti1es that of t~1e United States 3 34 tbes
that of Franco nearly 5 34 tiJes that of the lTetherlands and mOle than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash consu-TJption by tliese countries vlaS as
follows
Country Conslli1ution ~~~~------------~(~~tric tons)
Gernry Uni ted Stetes France lTetherlords Soviet Union Others ~o~1LD TOTAL
950507 35J424 262365 167447 148250 69268 c 1 -I 2 dmiddotL 20
374 IJ 9 10middot3 66 58
26tL JOOO
Eurone Was the only net exporter of potash before the war The princina1
countries exporting notash were Germany France Spain the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany ex)orted 2 li2 times the quantity exnorted by Frence Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Japan imuorted about 95 per cent of their re-
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of potash
before the uJar North Arlerica was second in volume of potash conS-WJed Preiar
world consumption of potash br geographic areas was as follO18
Area Rank Consypptiol1 Pe~ cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 j 354 779 North America 2 3921208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 ~ Amerilt~a 6 21223 04 ---l[QRLD TOTAL 2t59-1j 61 lOOO
Gennany was the largest single preuJar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United StatesFrAnce Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption W1tS more than 2 12 ti1es thHt of the United States 3 34 times
trat of France nearly 5 34 tiles that of the netherlands and more than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash conslLlltion by these c01lJltries vIas as
follows
Country Qonsum-ption (metric tons)
Germgry 950507 374 United Stetes 353424 139 France 262365 103 11ether umds 167447 66 Soviet Union 148250 58 Others~ ________________ ~6)~~o~~~276~8 ______________ ~2~6~cO --JCRLD TOTAL 251Jl261 JOOO
Europe was the only net exporter of potash before tte war The principal
countries exporting Jotash were Germany France S])~dn the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany e~orted 2 12 tines the qlantity emorted by Prenee Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Janan imported about 95 per cent of their re-
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 10 -
Europe including the Soviet Union also Was the largest consumer of potash
before the uJar North Arlerica was second in volume of potash conS-WJed Preiar
world consumption of potash br geographic areas was as follO18
Area Rank Consypptiol1 Pe~ cent (metric tons)
Europe 1 1978 j 354 779 North America 2 3921208 154 Asia 3 118082 46 Oceania 4 25841 10 Africa 5 16853 07 ~ Amerilt~a 6 21223 04 ---l[QRLD TOTAL 2t59-1j 61 lOOO
Gennany was the largest single preuJar consumer of potash She was followed
in rank by the United StatesFrAnce Netherlands and the Soviet Union German
consumption W1tS more than 2 12 ti1es thHt of the United States 3 34 times
trat of France nearly 5 34 tiles that of the netherlands and more than 6 times
that of the Soviet Union Prewar potash conslLlltion by these c01lJltries vIas as
follows
Country Qonsum-ption (metric tons)
Germgry 950507 374 United Stetes 353424 139 France 262365 103 11ether umds 167447 66 Soviet Union 148250 58 Others~ ________________ ~6)~~o~~~276~8 ______________ ~2~6~cO --JCRLD TOTAL 251Jl261 JOOO
Europe was the only net exporter of potash before tte war The principal
countries exporting Jotash were Germany France S])~dn the Soviet Union and
Palestine Germany e~orted 2 12 tines the qlantity emorted by Prenee Its
exports consisted of 37 per cent of its production
The United States imported one-third of its potash requirements attaining
first rank in volume of imports Janan imported about 95 per cent of their re-
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 11 -
quirements Practically all other countries not 9reviously mentioned were de-
nendent upon foreign sources for their potash
Europe exceeded all other areas in the use of potash p~r unit area or
arable lend and Jer unit of area land end oermpl1ent meedolIS and nastlres combined
POSTWAR OUTLOOK A1rn POTEHTIALITIES
General
Of the tllree major fertilizers~-nitrogen nhosphate and notash--only
ni trogen continues in such orld short supply in relption to demand as to re
quire allocation by the International Emergency Food Council
matimated World Production of All Fertilizers
The folloving table shovs estimted world proGuction of nl trogen phosphoric
acid and notesh fertil-izers through the year 195051 The prospectiJe vorld
supply of nitrogen (N) is estimpted at 40 million metric tons phosphoric acid
(p205) at 59 million metric tons and natash (K20) at 46 million metric tons
Table 3 Estimated lvorld Production of Hi trogen Phosphoric Acid and Potash Fertilizers
(million metric tons)
Nitrogen (N) 22 2) 26 27 )1 3 6 40 Phosphoric
Acid (P20i) )5 ) 7 41 43 49 54 59 Potash K20 2middotZ 2middot2 3 1 1middot~ 18 42 46
84 89 2middot8 10middot3 118 l1Q2 l4~
Source Arranged by IB3D from renorts of IElC f FAO CEEC
Estimated World Ceuaci ty Procuction ReQuirements and Defici ts of Nitrogen Fertilizer
USDA
Practical operating c8T)acity for manufacturing nitrogen for fertilizers is
renofted at 36 million metric tOllS in 194849 and increasing to 42 million
metric tons in 195051 See Table 4 below Part of this reported increase
in capacity will come from construction of new plants and -part from rebuilding
plants and equipment
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 12 -
Table 4 Estimeted Practicel Operlting C~pacity Pro(uction Require1ents and Defici t in Production to ~reet Requirements
(million metric tons of nitrogen)
218h2 1947748 124849 121~9150 _12~)o751
PracticBl Operating Cauaci ty 21 3 4 3middot6 3middot9 h2 Procluction 20 27 3 1 36 40 ReqUirements 20 36 42 45 +8 Deficit 0 0middot9 11 09 08
i
SQurce -Arranged by I~RD from FAO andIEFC data
Nitrogen fertilizer uroduction has been estimated by the Committee of
European Economic Cooperation to be 46 million metric tons in the 195051
fertilizer year
Although urectica1 operating cECpacity for manufacturing nitrogen ferti-
lizer is reported at 42 million metric tons in 195051 it is coubtfu1 if the
over-all ratio of nroduction to reported capacity middotJill be much more Hum 95
per cent in 195051 in hich case output in that year lOuld pproximate
40 million metric tons The attending difficulties in attaining ca1jecity out-
put Gf nitrogen such as using worn-out equipment the lack of re1jaios
shortage of electric pmver coking coal Jaw mRteria1s tank Cars and labor
will need to be overco~e before cap8city output can be attained
In a recent survey conducted by the FAa among member countries relative
to their plans for nitrogen fertilizer output by 195051 it WaS reveRled that
the sum of all the production estir1ates returned Vould incicate tnat by
195051 world uroduction of nitrogen would approxinate about 3957000 metric
tons The countries reporting (excluding USSR) normally pro0uced about 90
per cent of tLe estimated orld production Nitrogen prod-Jction since the
var has been increasing at an annual rete of about 8 per cent Unless this
rate is greatly accele~ated production of nitrogen ir 195051 will be con-
siderably less than the 46 million metric tons estimated by the CE3C
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 13 -
The prospective 11orldsupply of nitlogenous fertilizers in 194849 is estishy
mated at about 3111 million metric tons However stated requirements in 19J849
are 42 million metric tons or some 11 million metric tons in excess of probable
available supplies The shortage in relation to demand remains apJroximete~y the
seme each year through 1950510
The need for nitrogen is much greater now than pre1rttr since soil fertility
lost during the war years must be restored larger populations must be fed and
many nations are anxious to inc1ease their production of basic foodstuffs in
lOrking toward higher levels of nutrition
FERTILIZERS AlID THE E-lR9PEIUJ RECOVERY p~~
The European Recovery Program comprises an area of sxteen 1estern E-Jropean
nations and Western Germany
Before World War II this area used more commercial fertilizers than any
similar area--about half the total used throughout the world During most of the
lar supplies offertilizers were cut to the bone and the 60ils were starved for
lack of plant food Reduced livestock numbers lOHered the quantity of animal
manures lack of good feedstuffs especially oilseed meals lowered the quality
Since the war production of commercial fertilizers have recovered consicler-
ably The amounts being produced h01levor are much less than the de1and As
in other parts of the vlOrld the greatest shortages relate to nilaogen For a
time lack of coa~l held back )roduction but this no longer appears to be true
Top priority now has been given to coal for this purpose The main bottlenecks
now apparently are materials and equipment for repair and expansion of plants
The 1950-51 goal of fertilizer use for the area as a whole is tJice the pre-
war consumption Such an expanded use of fertilizer Hill play all imuortant part
1fExcludes USSR but includes USSR zone in Germany
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 14 -
in increasing fcod proDuction By the end of the period the participating counshy
tries as a group will have according to their plans increased production fashy
cilities for nitrogen to such an extent as to not only become self-sufficient but
to have a small surplus for export The area JOuld expect to supply its own neects
for phosphate and to obtain needed imports of potash from nearby Euro~oean S01rCes
Western Euronean Reauirements Allocations [lnd Production
Stated total requirements allocations and T)rodllction of nitrogen for fertishy
lizer in vestern Europe (excluding llestern Germany) preViar 1911-647 through
195051 are shown in Table 5 The requirements of these participating countries
of iestern Europe of 12 million metric tons in 194849 should be com])ared to
world requirements of approximately 42 million metric tons in the same year
Requirements for Western Europe in 195051 are stated at 15 million metric tons
compared to world requirements of 48 million metric tons in the same year~
As may be noted from Table 6 the narticipating countries of vf6stern Europe
are asking for 93 per cent more ni tlogen fertilizer in 19l8j49 than their nrewar
rate of consumption and 24 per cent greater than 194748 Their allocations are
44oer cent greater in 19i8jlJ9 than their nrewar consUlrmtion and 7 per cent greatel
than last years allocation Indigenous production in 194849 is estimated at
54 per cent greater than prewar proc1uction and 17 per cent greater than 194-748
In 195051 they are asking for 124 per cent more nitrogen fertilizer than their
prewar rate of consumption Their production is estimated tobe 110 per cent
greater than prewar A deficit of 14 per cent is calculated between indigenous
production anc requirements
lihen one compare$ the nitrogen fertilizer requirements alloce~tions and proshy
duction of Western Europe (excluding vlestern Germeny) on a per capita basiS a
rather interesting picture evolves In Table 7 is given nitrogen req~irementat
allocations and production per capita - Western Europe Prewar through 195051
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
~able 5
Country
Austria Belgium amp
LuCembourg Denmark France Greece Ireland
~ Italy I Hether1ands
lTorway Fortugal Sweden Switzerland ~urkey
lTitrogenous Fertil~zer Recuirements Alloc~tions and Productl (thousand metric tons)
rrewar 19348 19467 194778 Use Pro- Require- Allo- Pro- ~equire- Allo-t duction- mente cation ductio~rtm~ents-_~cP~~tJ~middoton~d
70
632 379
2400 70 69
940 730 120 160 360
15
800 J
1700 0 0
1190 990 820
0 35 58 05
142
900 500
2639 120 80
1290 1100
230 175 433 132
116
886 411
2020 103
31 623 928 211 107 389 116
116
1265 o
1438 0 2
483 400 938
0
240
900 480
3500 130 140
100 1300 220 220 650 120
205
880 397
2368 160 67
993 1033 204 158 346 120
1
1
1
United Kingdom
19 10
600 1240 14
1931 08
1421
209 120
05 2307
25 2100
13 1848 2
TOTAL 6527 9707 7186 7283 11225 8792
Excludes Western Germany Data not available prerar for comparison pUT)
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data fron
I ~ bull
~
gt bull
bull -
~
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
Table 6 Recapituletion of nitrogen Ferttlizer Recuirements Allocltions and Prod uction - Western Europell
FrtllSr 19647 194748 1943~9 194950 195Q51 l~B
Requirements~
6577JJ Thousands of metric tons 9707 102l~4 12717 13678 14721 Per cent increase over
IJ(Y preceding year 111 2~amp l 8~ JJ) 8) Per cent increae over prewar 48 56 9J~b 1085~ 124~
Allccatiun ~ 6577Jl 0
Thoulands of metric tons 738e6 8792 9443 na na -I Per cent increase over
11Y preceding year 19 7~ na na Per cent increase OVer prevar ll~ 34 44d na na 10
Product ion Thousands of metric tons 6851 7283 8975 10526 12299 14363 Per cent inerasse over
6lt1oY preceding year 2d 17 17 17~ I 0
Per cent increa~e over prewar 6 31 54 80~ 110 I
lIExeludes ljestern Germany YPer cent of jIelar 3J Pr eVlar us e bull
Source Arranged by IBRD from reports and data from IEFC t CEJllC t FAO t and USDA
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
Table 7 l1itrogEm Fertilizer aecuiremenh Allocatiols and lro0uctton PCr CB~ita - ~lestern Europcll refar 194647-195deg51
(pounds)
123438 194641 194748 1942149 194950 195051
Requirements Pounds per cepi ta 34 45 5~2 57 6~ 66 Per cent increalte over prear 12lt6 53 68 82~ 94~amp ~ Per cent increasecte over
preceding year 3c2~ 16 10~~ 9 1 6
Allocations ~ 34Y
t--lounds per capita 3c4JJ 40 43 na na
-l Per cent increale over prewar c5C 18amp 26amp na na Per cent increase over
0 1 preceding year 180 8~ ns bull na 1deg - I
Igtroduction Founds per cBpita 5 34J 401 48 So6 65 Per cent increase over prewar 0 17 37 6o~ 86~~ Fer cent increase over
otfJ preceding year 12 17~ 17~b 16~
lIExcludes liestern Germany jPrerar use JPer cent of pre~rar
SOl1rce Arromiddot1Ged by IERD from rerorts and data from IFJC CEEC FAO 2nd USDA
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 18 -
Table 7 indicates that requirements ner caita in 194849 as submitted to
IEEC are 68 per cent greater than prewar (193438) and 94 per cent greater in
195051 Allocations per capita in 194849 are 26 ner cent greater than preilar
use Incigenous Tlrocuction has increased 37 per cent over prerar in 194849
and is expected to increase to 86 per cent over pre-lar in 195051 It is
interesting to note that an absolute increase in nitrogen production of 110
per cent above pre1lJar ould only result in a ner capita increase of 86 per cent
Fertilizers and Euron~an Crons
Last year (1947-48) Europe faced a bleak outloo1c with very poor breadgrain
crops and few dollers left to buy Amercan supplies This -oicture has radically
changed European countries all report promising crop harvests in 191)8 Produc-
tion of breadgrains in ivestern Europe d th fort-lard estimates for 1948 are shown
in Table 8
Table 8 Production of Breadgrains in Western Europe - Prew8r 1946 1947 and Estimated 1948
(thousand metrictons)
Per(en~age Crop 1948
Country middot (thousands metric tonsl CcmJ)arecl to middot
j934138 1946 1947 1948 193438 19L~7 Average Estimate$~Average
Austria 955 580 560 700 73 125 Belgium 875 700 400 500 57 125 Luxembourg middot 46 35 20 30 65 150 middot Denmark 647 583 233 625 96 270 France 8983 7500 4500 8100 90 180 Greece 810 785 600 815 101 136 Ireland 180 360 480 550 306 115 Italy 7423 6600 5700 7100 95 125 Netherlands middot 925 800 500 650 70 130 middot Nolvay 67 85 55 80 119 145 Portugal 573 560 500 650 113 130 S1Ileden 1106 970 580 975 88 168 Si tzer land 193 232 215 235 122 109 Turkey 3750 4100 3 QOO 5000 134 128 United Kingdom la25g 21 040 1~722 264Q 151 15~
TOTAL 2828 25930 1999~5 28650 101 144 Source New York Herald Tribune Paris Edition
September 1948
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 19 -
The Western European breadgrain crop is tentatively forecast at 28650000
metric tons in 1948 Corn1Jaredto previous years production in 19L~8 on an absolute
basis exceeded nrevar (1934-38) production by 1 per cent andl947 by 44 per cent
Increased yields forecast for all countries co~bined with larger acreage more
fertilizers good grovTing weather t~ith a few minor exceptions account for the
substantial increase
Despite the marked recovery in the ptoduction ofiestern European breadgmins
this year several factors noint to a continued need for substantial imports of
breadgrains by the traditionally deficit areas Increased population extremely
low reserves of grain in many areas the need for general increases in food conshy
sumntion from the low level nrevailing during the past year high extraction
rates and low quality bread-all contribute to the inport demand during 194849
Though somewhat smaller than 194748 these impo~t needs will contirLUe considerabl~
higher than prewar
THE UlJITED STATES AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF SppPLY
In general the United States is a net importer of nitrogen fBrtilizer Howshy
ever she also exnorts considerable amounts of nitrogen The export prograIn foJ
194849 recommended by IEFC and approved by Secretary of Commerce Charles Sawyer
is broken dom as follows
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
Country of Destination
Canada and Hewfoundland China and Formosa Frpnce and Empire Greece Iniia Netherlands Netherlands East Indies Philippines Latin America
Brazil Cuba Colcmbia Costa Rica Dominican Republic t-iexico Peru Venezuela
- 20 -
Others (under 100 tons each) Total Latin America
TOTAL EYFOHT PROGRAM
Export Quanti ties Short Tons of a trogen
400 4500
300 200 100 700 600 300 ~
1102 17417 12015 3358 4409
10050 1249 3417
2716 2JL~
Production of nitrogen fertilizers in the Cnited States has increased
greatly since 1937 In spite of this increased nroduction hOltever the supply
is still short of indicated reqUirements of United States rmers The use of
addi tional fertilizer has been extremely nrofitable (h-cring the neriod 0 high-
uriced farm nroducts o
Farmers ErlsnClitures for Fertilizer
In general expenditures for fertilizers tend to very ith farPlers ability
to buy Farmers ability to buy veries 1ith clsh farm income In Figure I is
shown the relationship of farmErs t eXDe1di tures for and yo1ume of sales of
fertilizer and cash farm income in the United States
As noted in Figure 1 exoenditures for fertilizers rise and fall 1rlith
changes in cash farm income Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers
tend to follow ch~nges in cash farm income in the precedinG year Tile sudden
contraction in cash farm income after 1919 and again after 1929 as follOlJed
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
- 21 -
by a definite curtailment in exnenditures for fertilizers bull Any c~gttaiLllent of
cash farmmiddot income in the future may cause a curtailment of expenditures for erti-
lizers in the United States and liberate a larger supply for European eKport
possibili ties for ~_Decline in Farm Income in the United Statesect
The foundation for lower farm incomes in the future in the United States has
been forming over the nast months First came the drastic February decline in
grain urices then the miraculous inmrovernents in the inter Jheat crop which
erased any aoubts regarding the supuly of that grain for the coming yeCr and
now corn has moved into the foregrotnd On top of all this is the general
improvement in the 1tlOrld food situation and a steadily declining vorlct wlJat pric60
In 1947 us fCrmers net incomes averaEed $2987 In 1948 it declined
to $2746 The net income to farmers in 1949 may be 10 1)er cent belo1t the 1948
level or $2472 for the average farm family Further declines in net incomes to
farmers are anticinated in the future through adjustment of T)rices under price
supports
Average OricGs received by farmers for products sold comparee to
Orices on June 15 1948 ranged from an index of 60 in tle case of bull to an
index of 182 in the Cdse of beef cattle This leaves a vride range for fute
price declines The wri tar feels that loan ratBs on vlhee_t will decline to about
$135 per bushel of wheat in 1950 corn $145ner bushel and cotton 20cent per
pound ~nd marketing quotas in 1951 There can be no dispute thet t11e bearish
outlook for future f8rm prices in the United Stetes Jill decreese future farm in-
comes Inasmuch as farmers exnendi tures for fertilizers tend to fa 1101lt cBsh
farm incomes it is reasonable to assume a oecreEtSe in the total rm demfmd for
fertilizers in the near future Oossibly as early as 1949 8nd certainly by 1950
Further exuansion of nitrogen fertilizer cppaci ty in the United StDtes has come
yirtually to a stop_
The above forward calculations are based on the assumption of no war but if
there is war during the next year all Olans must be revised
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
UNITED STATES FARMERS EXPENDITURES FOR AND VOLUME OF SALES OF FERTILIZER AND CASH FARM INCOME Changes in annual expenditures for fertilizers tend to follow changes in cash farm income
600 600 INDEX NUMBERS 1910-14= 100
500~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~~~500 middot bull middot middot middot middot bull middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot middot 400~---+----4-----+----4----~----4-----~-~~400
I Ii I
I I
CASH I FARM INCOME I
300~---+----~----+----4-----r----~~--~--~300 I I
I bull I I I~ I
I I bull
200~---+~~~----+----4-----L----~middot~~~--~200 I EXPENDITURES I FOR FERTILIZER 1 I 1 I
I I
degOLLLLL~~~~O~LLL~LL~~O~-LL~LLLl~OJJ~L~LLLLLJOO
m m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
SOURCE Arranged by IBRD IBRD- Economic Dept
