world bank education strategy 2020: phase 2 of external consultations

World Bank Education Strategy 2020Phase II Consultations

Education Sector BoardThe World Bank October 2010

External consultation meetings, Phase 1Region Number of Countries

RepresentedNumber of countries that

hosted a consultation meeting

Africa 16 4

South Asia 3 2

East Asia and the Pacific 8 4

Latin America and the Caribbean

11 4

Middle East and North Africa 4 2

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

13 2

Donors 13 6

TOTAL 69 24

Themes & priorities from consultations in Low-Income Countries

Themes & priorities from consultations in Middle Countries

Website:

www.worldbank.org/educationstrategy2020

Email:[email protected]

http://www.worldbank.org/educationstrategy2020

How will the world look in 2020?

What will be the demands on education and on education systems?

Demographic futures shape education challenges

What does demographics tell us about demands on education system?

High dependency ratio in LICs: adults have to take care of more children

Tax base is smaller in LICs than in MICs

Demographic dividends in MICs

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-74

75+

100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000Populations in ThousandsFemale Male

Population in Low Income Countries 2020

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-74

75+

250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

Population Projections in Middle Income Countries 2020

Populations in ThousandsFemale Male

The rise of new economic starsReal GDP (PPP): Projections 2004-2015 (Using 1991-2003 Average Growth Rates)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Trillions of 1995 international $

India China BrazilCanada France GermanyItaly Japan MexicoRussian Federation United Kingdom United States

India

China

United States

JapanGermany

United Kingdom

France

Italy

Canada

Mexico

Russian Federation

Brazil

Rodriguez, 2008

Percentage of population living with less than PPP$2/day

1990 2005 2015 2020

East Asia & Pacific 79.8 38.7 19.4 14.3China 84.6 36.3 16.0 12.0Europe and Central Asia 6.9 8.9 5.0 4.1

Latin America & Caribbean 19.7 16.6 11.1 9.7

Middle East & North Africa 19.7 16.9 8.3 6.6

South Asia 82.7 73.9 57.0 51.0India 82.6 75.6 58.0 51.9Sub-Saharan Africa 76.2 73.0 59.6 55.4

Poverty has declined … but less so in Africa

Short-term growth projections

World Developing countries

2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011

Real GDP -2.2 2.7 3.2 1.2 5.2 5.8

Real GDP (PPP) -1.0 3.5 4.0 1.8 5.5 6.0

• Main drag on global growth comes from high-income countries, with implications for external aid resources • Robust prospects in developing countries for recovery in 2010

What else has changed since 2000?

Shifts in global politics, environment and security concerns Greater adoption of Information and Communication

Technology More complex aid architecture and Paris & Accra declarations

So … what do these changes mean for education challenges?

How to increase learning opportunities in countries where the school-age population is growing rapidly?

How to afford post-basic education while still expanding basic education?

How to improve the quality of education while still expanding education?

How to ensure that youth enter the workforce with productive and employable skills?

So … what do these changes mean for

education challenges?

Every child has a right to an education.

And education yields huge benefits for individuals, families, communities, and society.

A country’s wealth and its prospects for development depends on the quality of its people—

the skills and creativity of its workers,

the capability of its leaders to govern well and to manage its resources, and

the ability of its adult generation to raise healthy, educated and happy children – the next generation.

One additional year of schooling increases an

individual’s wage by 5-10%.

“Half the reduction in child mortality over the past 40 years can

be attributed to the better education of women.” (Lancet 9/2010) One additional year in average education of women reduces child deaths by 9.5%.

Countries with high female education coped with

extreme weather events better than countries with same income and weather conditions (Blankespoor, Dasgupta, Wheeler 2010)

Strategic directions for 2020

Bank’s mission in education

Overall purpose of in education at the country level

Strategic directions to achieve results

Implementation levers

Increase learning for all

Greater pressure on post-primary education

Increase in net enrollment rates in primary education

… and primary completion rates

Growing demand for secondary and tertiary education

50

60

70

80

90

10

0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Year

Low income Lower middle incomeUpper middle income High income

World

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, Sep 2010

Primary net enrollment rates by income group

4050

6070

8090

100

%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Year

Low income Lower middle incomeUpper middle income High income

World

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, Sep 2010

Primary completion rates by income group

… but large disparities remain within countries

% of youth ages 15-19 who completed a given grade: Latest available data

Indonesia 2007Egypt 2008Nigeria 2008

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Poorest quintile Quintile 2Quintile 3 Quintile 4Richest quintile

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1


Within-country inequalities are as big as —if not bigger — than between-country inequalities

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0

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0.8

1

Average grade 6 completion

Pro

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Source: Filmer, Deon. 2010. “Education Attainment and Enrollment around the World: An International Database.” http://econ.worldbank.org/projects/edattain.

Grade 6 completion of 15-19 year olds in the richest and poorest quintiles.

http://econ.worldbank.org/projects/edattain

Learning takes place throughout life

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 250

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Formal schooling

Out-of-school youth

Children & youth in school

Primary level Secondary level Tertiary level

ECD

Nutrition, health care, parental training, ECE

Second chance education and skills

training

Training

% learning goals achieved

Age in years

Age-enrollment profile

Inequalities in SACMEQ 2000, Reading test scoresM

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he

lles

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

Average score

Source: Filmer, based on analysis of SACMEQ 2000 database

Beyond enrollment, a focus on learning

TIMSS 2007, Grade 8 Mathematics test scores

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250

300

350

400

450

500

550

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Average score

Source: Filmer, based on analysis of TIMSS 2007 database








Improve global debate byBuilding a high-quality

knowledge base of data & analyses

Improve policy & investment effectiveness in

countries byStrengthening countries’

education systems

What is an education system?

Central & local governments

State & non-state providers

of learning

Communities, private sector,

CSOs, households

Rela

tions

hips

of a

ccou

ntab

ility Relationships of accountability

Relationships of accountability

An education system is a network of power & accountability relationships for delivering learning results

The new strategy differs from previous Bank strategies with respect to its system perspective

Education for All for the knowledge

economy for cohesive societies Priorities:

Education in a countrywide perspective

Sector-wide approach Results orientation

Quality Education for All Priorities:

Basic education (poor, girls)

Early interventions (ECD, school health)

Innovative delivery Systemic reform

2000 Update 2005











education systems

Knowledge--System diagnostic &

benchmarking tools & data

--Learning assessments

-- Research & Impact evaluations

What is an education system?

Central & local governments

State & non-state providers

of learning

Communities, private sector,

CSOs, households

Rela

tions

hips

of a

ccou

ntab

ility Relationships of accountability

Relationships of accountability

An education system is a network of power & accountability relationships for delivering learning results

Foundation of evidence: reliable data at all levels of the system; know-how about what works, what doesn’t, and why

Diagnostic tools for education system

System diagnostic tools to: Analyze alignment of core functions with

allocation of resources and authority Measure outputs and outcomes, not only inputs Measure learning outcomes and skills, not only

school enrollment Monitor not only public providers but also non-

state providers Benchmark system performance

Use to benchmark system











education systems

Bank products--System-oriented

technical support--Results-based

financing





Results-based financing

From financing inputs to financing outputs and results

Disbursement against pre-specified implementation progress and performance targets

Disbursements could be linked to: Products

Changes in institutions

Changes in incentive structures

Changes in policies











education systems

Bank products--System-oriented

technical support--Results-based

financing





Bank organization--Practice groups--Multisectoral

approach--Staff learning--Strategic

partnerships

Education system has

high capacity

Education system has

low capacity

High economic development

Low economic development

Differentiated approach by countries’ economic development & capacity of the education system


Timor-Leste

Tajikistan

DjiboutiSierra LeoneTogo

Gambia, The

Guinea

Lao PDRCambodia

Kyrgyz Republic

Bangladesh

Madagascar

Niger

Kenya

Samoa

Marshall Islands

MongoliaMoldova

Azerbaijan

Belize

El SalvadorParaguay

Jordan

Maldives

Lesotho

Cape Verde

Fiji

MalaysiaTurkey

BulgariaLithuania

Mexico

St. Vincent and the GrenadinesChile

Lebanon

Seychelles

Hong Kong, China

PortugalMalta

020

4060

8010

0En

rollm

ent r

ate

2000

0

4000

0

6000

0

Per Capita Income, 2000 dollars (*)

Fragile States Low incomeLower middle income Upper middle income

High income

(*) Income shown in log scale

By incomeNet enrollment rate (%), secondary

Learning assessment

capacity

GDP per capita


Mature

Established

Emerging

LatentPoorest LICs Richest MICs

Compensatory programsIs funding linked to results?

Are teacher policies linked

to learning results?

B

C

D

A

A

BC D

Knowledge

Bank Organization

Bank Products

1. Availability of diagnostic tools for education sub-systems

2. Number of research & impact evaluations on policies and interventions that use a systems approach

3. Development of skills measurement tool beyond measures of basic competencies

4. Development & implementation of capacity development program around the systems approach

5. Development of system-oriented staff practice groups

6. Number of loans/credits that have used results-based financing

7. Number of loans/credits that supported countries to carry out learning assessments and/or participate in regional or international assessments

8. Number of countries furthest from the Millennium Development Goals in 2010 that have received financial and technical assistance from the Bank

Performance indicators 2020

Knowledge

Bank Organization

Bank Products

1. Number of countries that have applied system diagnostic tool, collected and used system data

2. Number of countries that have applied skills measurement tool, collected and used skills data

3. Number of loans/credits with satisfactory outcomes

4. Number of loans/credits that have used a multisectoral approach

5. Number of assisted countries that have progressed significantly towards MDGs

Impact indicators 2020

EFA

MD

G

020

4060

8010

0P

roje

cts

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

Total number of projects with education component

EFA

MD

G

05

1015

%

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

Education as % of total World Bank lending

Trends in the World Bank’s lending for education, FY1963-FY2010

EFA

MD

G

010

0020

0030

0040

0050

00M

illio

n U

S$

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

IDA IBRDTotal education lending

Commitments to education from IDA, IBRD and total(constant 2005 million US$)

Bank support for education

5.22.1

42.8

9.5

13.4

26.2

0.8

12.4

1.8

38.2

13.4

3.9

29.0

1.3

28.2

3.3

34.8

13.7

4.0

14.8

1.1

24.4

3.3

31.9

19.9

5.3

14.3

0.7

020

40

60

80

10

0%

1991-95 1996-2000 2001-05 2006-10

Adult literacyTertiaryVocational training

SecondaryPrimaryPre-primaryGeneral

Focus of current WB education portfolio

• About half supports poorest countries through IDA funds

• 49% supports basic education• 51% supports post-basic education• 75% includes teacher development • 50% includes learning assessments• More than100 knowledge products on

education

Discussion questions

1. Do the strategic priorities reflect the challenges & goals of partner countries?

2. How do we strengthen education systems to improve results?

3. How do we improve the global knowledge base on education systems and learning?

Thank you

World Bank’s lending for education(in constant 2005 US$)

FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY100

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

IDA

IBRD

Total (IDA+IBRD)


Proportion of 15-19 year olds who can read a simple sentence, by highest grade completed

0.2

.4.6

.81

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Grade

Dominican Rep. 2007 Kenya 2008-09Mali 2006 Nepal 2006

About 50% of Kenyan youth

who completed grade 6 cannot read a simple

sentence

90% of Malian youth who

completed grade 4 cannot read a simple sentence

world bank education strategy 2020: phase 2 of external consultations

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