world cancer-treating drugs industry and market companies, therapies, r&d and forecasts...

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World Cancer-Treating Drugs Industry and Market: Companies, Therapies, R&D and

Forecasts 2015-2025

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1. Report Overview

1.1 Overview of the World Market for Cancer-Treating Drugs

1.2 Why You Should Read This Report

1.3 How This Study Delivers

1.4 Main Questions Answered by this Analysis

1.5 Who is this Report For?

1.6 Methods of Research and Analysis

1.7 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1.8 Some Associated Reports

1.9 About Visiongain

2. Introduction to Cancer Treatments

2.1 The Physiology of Cancer – Causes and Effects

2.1.1 Uncontrolled Growth

2.1.2 Dedifferentiation

2.1.3 Invasiveness and Metastasis

2.1.4 Causes of Cancer

2.2 The Incidence and Prevalence of Cancer – Trends in the World

2.2.1 Incidence

2.2.2 Mortality

2.2.3 Survival – Improving Odds

2.2.3.1 The Developed World

2.2.3.2 The Developing World – More Must Be Done


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2.3 Treating Tumours – How Can We Fight Back?

2.3.1 Chemotherapy – The Traditional Treatment

2.3.2 Hormone Therapies

2.3.3 Immunotherapy – A Magic Bullet?

2.3.3.1 Monoclonal Antibodies (mAbs)

2.3.3.2 Cancer Vaccines

2.3.3.3 Non-Specific Immunotherapies

2.3.4 Targeted Therapies

2.3.5 Differentiating Agents

3. The World Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2015-2025

3.1 Global Anti-Cancer Drugs Market Forecast, 2015-2025

3.2 The Domination of Immunotherapies in 2014

3.3 The Immunotherapy Anti-Cancer Drugs Market Forecast, 2015-2025 – The Fastest Growing

Segment

3.4 The Chemotherapy Anti-Cancer Drugs Market Forecast, 2015-2025

3.5 The Targeted Therapy Anti-Cancer Drugs Market Forecast, 2015-2025 – A Move towards

Personalisation

3.6 The Hormone Therapy Anti-Cancer Drugs Market Forecast, 2015-2025

4. Leading National Markets, 2015-2025

4.1 Anti-Cancer Drugs – Leading Markets, 2014

4.2 The US Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2015-2025 – Continued Leadership or Terminal Decline?

4.2.1 The US Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2014


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4.2.2 The US Anti-Cancer Drugs Market Forecast – A Matured Approach

4.2.3 The Effect of Regulations on the US Market

4.3 The Japanese Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2015-2025 – Still Steady?

4.4 The EU5 Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2015-2025 – Rivalling the US in Importance

4.5 The BRIC Countries Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2015-2025 – Awakening Sleeping Giants?

4.5.1 The Brazilian Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2015-2025 – Expansion of the Middle Class

4.5.2 The Russian Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2015-2025 - Rising Cancer Rates Stimulate

Revenue Increases

4.5.3 The Indian Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2015-2025 – Lucrative Opportunity for Growth

4.5.4 The Chinese Anti-Cancer Drugs Market, 2015-2025 – Can it Reach its Potential?

5. The Top 25 Anti-Cancer Drugs: Revenue Forecasts, 2015-2025

5.1 Avastin (Roche) – The World Market Leader

5.1.1 Avastin Revenue, 2011-2014 – Mixed Growth

5.1.2 Avastin Revenue Forecast – Still No.1?

5.2 Herceptin (Roche) – The Looming Impact of Patent Expiry

5.2.1 Herceptin Revenue, 2011-2014 – Still Rising

5.2.2 Herceptin Revenue Forecast – Generic Erosion

5.3 Rituxan/MabThera (Roche) – Slowing Growth

5.3.1 Rituxan Revenue, 2011-2014 – Still Strong

5.3.2 Rituxan Revenue Forecast – Heading for a Decline

5.4 Gleevec/Glivec (Novartis) – The Maturation of a Blockbuster

5.4.1 Glivec Revenue, 2011-2014

5.4.2 Glivec Revenue Forecast – What Does the Future Hold?


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5.5 Revlimid (Celgene) – Celgene’s Top Revenue Generator

5.5.1 Revlimid Revenue, 2011-2014 – Still on the Rise

5.5.2 Revlimid Revenue Forecast – A Long Term Leader?

5.6 Alimta (Eli Lilly) – A Slow Decline?

5.6.1 Alimta Revenue, 2011-2014

5.6.2 Alimta Revenue Forecast – Revenue Erosion Looming

5.7 Velcade (J&J/Takeda) – Rising Steadily

5.7.1 Velcade Revenue, 2011-2014

5.7.2 Velcade Revenue Forecast – A Dependable Sales Generator

5.8 Erbitux (Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck KGaA) – Facing Tough Competition

5.8.1 Erbitux Revenue, 2011-2014

5.8.2 Erbitux Revenue Forecast – No More Growth?

5.9 Gardasil (Merck & Co.) – The Rise of Prevention

5.9.1 Gardasil Revenue, 2011-2014

5.9.2 Gardasil Revenue Forecast – Still Growing Strong

5.10 Zytiga (Johnson & Johnson)

5.10.1 Zytiga Revenue, 2011-2014 – The Rise of a New Drug

5.10.2 Zytiga Revenue Forecast

5.11 Xeloda (Roche) – Patent Exclusivity and the Future

5.11.1 Xeloda Revenue, 2011-2014 – The Impact of Combination Therapies

5.11.2 Xeloda Revenue Forecast – A Slippery Slope

5.12 Tarceva (Roche)

5.12.1 Tarceva Revenue, 2011-2014 – No Clear Pattern


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5.12.2 Tarceva Revenue Forecast

5.13 Afinitor (Novartis) – A Targeted Approach

5.13.1 Afinitor Revenue, 2011-2014 – Growing Fast

5.13.2 Afinitor Revenue Forecast

5.14 Sprycel (Bristol-Myers Squibb)

5.14.1 Sprycel Revenue, 2011-2014

5.14.2 Sprycel Revenue Forecast – How Long Will the Growth Last?

5.15 Tasigna (Novartis) – Moving Up

5.15.1 Tasigna Revenue, 2011-2014

5.15.2 Tasigna Revenue Forecast – A Multi-Billion Dollar Product?

5.16. Sutent (Pfizer)

5.16.1 Sutent Revenue, 2011-2014

5.16.2 Sutent Revenue Forecast – No More Growth

5.17 Nexavar (Bayer/Onyx Pharmaceuticals)

5.17.1 Nexavar Revenue, 2011-2014 – The Effect of Regional Sales

5.17.2 Nexavar Revenue Forecast – A Promising Start

5.18 Xgeva (Amgen)

5.18.1 Xgeva Revenue, 2011-2014 – The Impact of New Indications

5.18.2 Xgeva Revenue Forecast

5.19 Zoladex (AstraZeneca)

5.19.1 Zoladex Revenue, 2011-2014

5.19.2 Zoladex Revenue Forecast

5.20 Yervoy (Bristol-Myers Squibb) – Starting to Make its Mark


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5.20.1 Yervoy Revenue, 2011-2014

5.20.2 Yervoy Revenue Forecast – Will Sales Keep Growing?

5.21 Vidaza (Celgene) – What Growth Potential?

5.21.1 Vidaza Revenue, 2011-2014

5.21.2 Vidaza Revenue Forecast – Generic Impact?

5.22 Treanda (Teva Pharmaceuticals)

5.22.1 Treanda Revenue, 2011-2014

5.22.2 Treanda Revenue Forecast – Stalled Growth?

5.23 Temodar/Temodal (Merck & Co.) – Falling off the Cliff?

5.23.1 Temodar/Temodal Revenue, 2011-2014

5.23.2 Temodar/Temodal Revenue Forecast

5.24 Faslodex (AstraZeneca) – The Counterpart to Zoladex

5.24.1 Faslodex Revenue, 2011-2014

5.24.2 Faslodex Revenue Forecast

5.25 Abraxane (Celgene) – Beginning the Climb

5.25.1 Abraxane Revenue, 2011-2014

5.25.2 Abraxane Revenue Forecast

6. Drugs Approved in 2014-2015: Potential Future Blockbusters

6.1 Approved Treatments in 2015

6.1.1 Farydak (panobinostat/Novartis)

6.1.2 Ibrance (palbociclib/Pfizer)

6.1.3 Lenvima (lenvatinib mesylate/Eisai)

6.1.4 Opdivo (nivolumab/Bristol-Myers Squibb)


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6.1.5 Unituxin (dinutuximab/United Therapeutics)

6.2 Approved Treatments in 2014

6.2.1 Beleodaq (belinostat/Spectrum Pharmaceuticals)

6.2.2 Blincyto (blinatumomab/Amgen)

6.2.3 Cyramza (ramucirumab/Eli Lilly): A Breakthrough for Gastric Cancer?

6.2.4 Imbruvica (ibrutinib/Pharmacyclics)

6.2.5 Keytruda (pembrolizumab/Merck)

6.2.6 Lynparza (olaparib/AstraZeneca)

6.2.7 Zydelig (idelalisib/Gilead)

6.2.8 Zykadia (ceritinib/Novartis) - The Rise of Kinase Inhibitors

6.2.9 Tafinlar (Novartis) – A Partner for Mekinist

6.2.10 Kadycla (Roche) – A Future Star

7. Leading Companies for Cancer Treatments, 2014

7.1 Anti-Cancer Drug Market Dominated by Seven Companies

7.2 Roche – Leader of the Pack

7.2.1 Oncology Pipeline – Investment in the Future

7.2.2 Roche’s Future Direction in Cancer Treatment

7.3 Novartis – Closing the Gap on Roche

7.3.1 Oncology R&D Pipeline – What’s the Potential?

7.3.2 Future Directions for Novartis

7.4 Celgene – A Pressing Need to Diversify?

7.4.1 Celgene’s Oncology R&D Pipeline – Safeguarding the Future

7.4.2 Future Directions for Celgene


http://www.centerwatch.com/drug-information/fda-approved-drugs/drug/100074/unituxin-dinutuximab

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7.5 Eli Lilly – Reliant on Alimta

7.5.1 Oncology R&D Pipeline – What Potential Exists?

7.5.2 The Future Direction of Eli Lilly

7.6 AstraZeneca – Climbing Up the Ladder

7.6.1 Oncology R&D Pipeline – Showing Promise

7.6.2 The Future Direction of AstraZeneca

7.7 Bristol-Myers Squibb

7.7.1 Oncology R&D Pipeline – What Potential Exists?

7.7.2 Future Direction of BMS

7.8 Merck &Co. – Prominent in Vaccines

7.8.1 Oncology R&D Pipeline – Greater Focus on Cancer

7.8.2 The Future Direction of Merck

7.9 Johnson & Johnson

7.9.1 Oncology J&J Pipeline – A Focus on Prostate Cancer Drugs

8. R&D Pipelines for Cancer Treatment

8.1 Breast Cancer Drugs under Development

8.1.1 Neratinib (Puma Pharmaceuticals)

8.1.2 Veliparib (Abbvie)

8.1.3 NeuVax (Galena Biopharma)

8.1.4 Entinostat (Syndax)

8.2 Prostate Cancer Drugs under Development

8.2.1 ODM-201 (Orion) – Jointly Developed with Bayer


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8.2.2 Tasquinimod (Active Biotech)

8.2.3 EMD-525797 (EMD Serono)

8.2.4 PROSTVAC (Bavarian Nordic)

8.3 Lung Cancer Drugs under Development

8.3.1 RG7446 (Roche)

8.3.2 Nivolumab (Bristol-Myers Squibb)

8.3.3 MEDI4736 (AstraZeneca)

8.3.4 TG4010 (Transgene)

8.4 Colorectal Cancer Drugs under Development

8.4.1 Imprime PGG (Biothera)

8.4.2 Xilonix (Xbiotech)

8.4.3 HA-Irinotecan (Alchemia)

8.5 Cervical Cancer Drugs under Development

8.5.1 ADXS-HPV (Advaxis)

8.5.2 V503 (Merck & Co.)

8.5.3 VGX-3100 (Inovio Pharmaceuticals)

8.6 Stomach Cancer Drugs under Development

8.6.1 Rilotumumab (Amgen)

8.6.2 Onartuzumab (Roche)

8.6.3 Apatinib (Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine)

8.7 Liver Cancer Drugs under Development

8.7.1 Tivantinib (ArQule)

8.7.2 Lenvatinib (Eisai Co.)


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8.7.3 Pexa-Vec (Jennerex Biotherapeutics)

8.7.4 Brivanib (Bristol-Myers Squibb)

8.7.5 Muparfostat (Progen Pharmaceuticals)

8.8 Ovarian Cancer Drugs under Development

8.8.1 Farletuzumab (Eisai)

8.8.2 Niraparib (TESARO)

8.8.3 Trebananib (Amgen)

8.9 Bladder Cancer Drugs under Development

8.9.1 Vesimune (Telormedix)

8.9.2 HS-410 (Heat Biologics)

8.9.3 EOquin (Allergan)

8.10 Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma Drugs under Development

8.10.1 Idelalisib (Gilead)

8.10.2 IPI-145 (Infinity Pharmaceuticals)

8.10.3 ABT-199 (AbbVie)

8.10.4 GS-9973 (Gilead)

8.11 Leukaemia Drugs under Development

8.11.1 Dinaciclib (Merck)

8.11.2 Sapacitabine (Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals)

8.11.3 Vosaroxin (Sunesis)

8.12 Kidney Cancer Drugs under Development

8.12.1 IMA901 (Immatics)

8.12.2 AGS-003 (Argos Therapeutics)


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8.12.3 Nilovumab (Bristol-Myers Squibb)

8.12.4 TRC105 (Tracon Pharmaceuticals)

8.13 Pancreatic Cancer Drugs under Development

8.13.1 Algenpantucel-L (NewLink Genetics)

8.13.2 MM-398 (Merrimack)

8.13.3 MK-0752 (Merck & Co.)

9. Qualitative Analysis of the Anti-Cancer Drug Market 2015-2025

9.1 SWOT Analysis of the Anti-Cancer Drugs Market

9.1.1 Strengths of the Market

9.1.1.1 The Rising Incidence of Cancer

9.1.1.2 Ample Treatment Options Available

9.1.2 Weaknesses

9.1.2.1 The Challenges of Drug Development

9.1.2.2 The Complex Nature of Cancer

9.1.3 Opportunities in the Anti-Cancer Drugs Market

9.1.3.1 The Advancement of Research

9.1.3.2 A Shift Towards Personalisation

9.1.4 Threats Facing the Anti-Cancer Drugs Market

9.1.4.1 The Threat of Regulation

9.2 STEP Analysis of the Anti-Cancer Drugs Market

9.2.1 Social Factors: The Cost of Living Longer

9.2.2 Technological Developments: Making the Market Move Forward


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9.2.3 Economic Pressure: Treatment’s Hefty Price Tag

9.2.4 Political Issues: Governmental Involvement in Treatment

10. Research Interviews from Our Survey

10.1 Dr Cesar M. Castro, Massachusetts General Hospital Cancer Center and Center for Systems

Biology, Boston

10.1.1 D3 Enables Point-of-care and Real Time Testing of Tumours

10.1.2 The Use of D3 to Detect Cancer

10.1.3 D3 – Speed, Ease of Use, Low Cost and Accurate

10.1.4 D3 – Possibility of Detecting Various Types of Cancer

10.1.5 Further Development and Refinement

10.2 Dr Silvia Paddock, Senior Associate, Rose Li and Associates, Inc.

10.2.1 PACE CII – Meeting the Needs of a Diverse Range of Stakeholders

10.2.2 PACE CII – Main Components

10.2.3 PACE CII – a Flexible Framework for Objective Assessments of Progress

10.2.4 Value of Cancer Treatments – Dynamic and Complex

10.2.5 Multiple Stakeholders - Shared Perspectives on Treatment Goals?

10.2.6 Free Access to Database and Tool

11. Conclusions of the Study

11.1 The Top 25 Drugs in the Cancer Treatment Market

11.2 Immunotherapies – The Future of the Market

11.3 Patent Expiries and the Impact of Biosimilars

11.4 The US – Still the Largest National Market

11.5 China and Brazil Will Lead the Emerging Markets


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11.6 Treatment – It’s Personal

11.7 The Anti-Cancer Drug Pipeline Remains Strong

11.8 Concluding Remarks


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World Cancer-Treating Drugs Industry and Market: Companies, Therapies, R&D and Forecasts 2015-2025

towards the middle of the forecasted period, it will need to try to obtain the most shares in this

market before then. Generic competition will probably reduce revenue after 2018 – although,

because Afinitor is approved to treat a number of indications, revenue will not fall significantly after

loss of patent exclusivity.

Table 5.31 Afinitor Revenue Forecast ($bn), Annual Growth(%) and CAGR (%), 2015-2025

Column1 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Revenue ($bn) 1.57 1.81 1.95 2.01 1.97 1.67 1.34 1.19 1.10 1.04 1.00 0.98Annual Growth (%) 20 15 8 3 -2 -15 -20 -11 -8 -5 -4 -2CAGR (%) 1 -9

Figure 5.41 Afinitor Revenue Forecast ($bn), 2015-2025

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Source: visiongain 2015

Source: visiongain 2015. CAGR from 2014-2019, and 2019-2025






A number of clinical programmes are currently under way which may boost Xgeva’s revenue over

the next 10 years. A phase III trial is currently running for the delay or prevention of bone

metastases in breast cancer, which could increase Xgeva’s market size significantly if successful.

A phase III programme is also running for use of Xgeva for the treatment of cancer-related bone

damage in patients with multiple myeloma. However, in 2013 Amgen apparently ended its

programme for the use of Xgeva to delay or prevent bone metastases in prostate cancer in

Europe, which was in line with decision by the FDA in 2012 to not approve Xgeva to treat men with

CRPC at high risk of developing bone metastases, reports indicate.

Xgeva faces strong competition over the next 10 years. This will primarily come from Zometa

(Novartis) and generic competitors of this, due to the expiration of Zometa’s patent in the US in

2013. As generics will cost substantially less than Zometa and Xgeva, they will account for a large

proportion of the market, visiongain expects.

Table 5.41 Xgeva Revenue Forecast ($bn), Annual Growth (%) and CAGR (%), 2015-2025

Column1 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Revenue ($bn) 1.22 1.44 1.68 1.94 2.13 2.24 2.19 2.02 1.71 1.37 0.96 0.58Annual Growth (%) 20 18 17 15 10 5 -2 -8 -15 -20 -30 -40CAGR (%) 13 -20

Figure 5.56 Xgeva Revenue Forecast ($bn), 2015-2025

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Figure 6.8). Additional approval was granted by the FDA in April 2015, for the use of Cyramza in

combination with FOLFIRI chemotherapy for the treatment of patients with metastatic colorectal

cancer with disease progression on or after prior therapy with bevacizumab, oxaliplatin and

fluoropyrimidine.

Visiongain predicts its revenue to reach $1.56bn in 2019 and $2.34 in 2025 (Table 6.8).

Table 6.8 Cyramza: Revenue Forecast ($bn), Annual Growth (%) and CAGR (%), 2015-2025

Column1 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Revenue ($bn) 0.07 0.3 0.60 0.93 1.30 1.56 1.75 1.92 2.08 2.20 2.29 2.34Annual Growth (%) - 300 100 55 40 20 12 10 8 6 4 2CAGR (%) 86 7

Figure 6.8 Cyramza: Revenue Forecast ($bn), 2015-2025

6.2.4 Imbruvica (ibrutinib/Pharmacyclics) Imbruvica (ibrutinib) is the second drug with breakthrough therapy designation to be approved by

the FDA. It inhibits Bruton’s tyrosine kinase’s (BTK) enzyme activity, stopping it from signalling

through B-cell surface receptors and activating a number of pathways which would allow cancer to

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