world coal and the imperative for ccs - the royal society ... · world coal and the imperative for...
TRANSCRIPT
1
www.coalimp.org.uk
World Coal andthe Imperativefor CCS
Nigel YaxleyRoyal Society of Chemistry
24th March 2010
World Coal and theImperative for CCS
World coal demand and supply growthReserves and resourcesCoking demand and steel productionWorld traded marketIEA world energy outlookPolicy developments Europe and UKConclusions
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
2
2
Source: BP Statistical Review
Coal – the world’s fastestgrowing energy source
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
3
Coal production growtheven continued in 2009
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Mil
lion
To
nnes
Coking Coal
Steam Coal
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
4
Source: IEA Coal Information 2009
3
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Mill
ion
Tonn
es
2007 2008
2008 Total 5.85 billion tonnes hard coal
China dwarfs otherproducers…
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
5
Source: IEA Coal Information 2009
…and drives hard coalproduction growth…
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
6
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Mill
ion
Tonn
es
Others
Ukraine
Colombia
Poland
Kazakhstan
South Africa
Indonesia
Russia
Australia
India
United States
PR of China
Source: IEA Coal Information 2009
4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Mill
ion
Tonn
es
India
Australia
Russia
Indonesia
South Africa
Kazakhstan
Poland
Colombia
Ukraine
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
…but second tier producersalso show interesting trends
7
Source: IEA Coal Information 2009
EU remains world’s 3rdlargest coal consumer…
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
PR of China UnitedStates
EU27 India Russia Japan South Africa Others
Mill
ion
Tonn
esCo
alEq
uiva
lent
World CoalConsumption 2008(including lignite)
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
8
Source: IEA Coal Information 2009
5
EU IndigenousHard Coal, 122.6,
28%
EU IndigenousLignite, 133.2,
30%
Imported HardCoal, 181.4, 42%
Almost 60% of EU’s coalsupply is indigenous
2008 MtceBased onEstimatedCalorific Values
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
9
Source: EURACOAL
Reserves andResources Reserves – proven and can be recovered at
current prices with current technology Different sources and methodologies
WEC/BP/BGR Assessment of ‘economically recoverable’ is
difficult 728 billion tonnes hard coal (+269 Bn t lignite)
Resources – demonstrated quantities thatmight be recoverable in the future plusgeologically possible but not demonstrated Over 15 trillion tonnes hard coal (+4 Tn t lignite)
“Resources” are particularly relevant forunderground coal gasification
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
10
6
Reserves of coal are evenlydistributed around the globe
N. America120/10/8
Africa22/17/13
MiddleEast0/102/68
Europe18/2/5
FSU107/17/51 Asia Pacific
138/6/14
S. & Cent.America
7/18/7
(billion tonnes oil equivalent)coal / oil / gas
Global EnergyReserves 2008
Source: BP StatisticalReview of World Energy 2009
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
The top five countries have80% of proven reserves…
0
50
100
150
200
250
Bil
lion
Ton
ne
s
Source: BGR - Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe
12
7
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Billi
on
Tonn
es
Reserves ResourcesRSC Symposium24th March 2010
…and USA, China and Russiahave 90% of resources…
Source: BGR
13
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Billion
To
nnes
Reserves ResourcesRSC Symposium24th March 2010
Changing the axis highlightslarge resources in the UK
Source: BGR
14
8
Coking Demand andSteel ProductionRemember coal is not just for electricity
production!Coking coal demand in 2009 was around
800 million tonnesEssential component in steel-makingUse is concentrated in rapidly growing
economiesMust not be forgotten in climate change
mitigationMeasures in old economies may simply
drive production elsewhere – “carbonleakage”
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
15
Coal in China powers morethan just electricity…
57%
8%
24%
3%8%
ElectricityCokingIndustryResidentialOthers
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
16
Source: IEA Coal Information 2009
9
China568
Japan88
Russia60
United States58
India57
South Korea49
Germany33
Ukraine30
Brazil27
Turkey25 Others
227
Million Tonnes
…with China also dominantin world steel production
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
17
Source: World Steel Association
Chinese steel productionwithstood the recession
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
18
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
Tonn
es
Others
Turkey
Brazil
Ukraine
Germany
South Korea
India
United States
Russia
Japan
China
Source: World Steel Association
10
World Traded Market
Most coal demand in the world is metfrom indigenous supply
Around 15% is tradedDifferent players have dominated the
international coal marketBut this is changingWorld markets in 2009 saw a net
increase of 100 million tonnes inChinese demand
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
19
445492
532 575 607 606 615
191180
197
204226 243 231
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Est
Mill
ion
Tonn
es
Coking Coal
Steam Coal
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
World seaborne hard coaltrade stalled in 2009
20
Source: IEA Coal Information 2009
11
…but Asia/Pacific tradecontinued to grow
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
21
Source: Verein der KohlenImporteure
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mil
lio
nT
on
nes
Steam Coal Demand UK Production
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
UK has become a majorcoal importer…
Source – DECC
22
12
… but was overtaken byIndia and China in 2008
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
Japan185.6
Korea99.6
Taiwan66.1India
59.8Germany46.1China
45.6
UK43.7
USA30.9
Russia25.8
Italy25.1
Others294.3
Million Tonnes
Major World Coal Importers
23
Source: IEA Coal Information 2009
Australia252.2
Indonesia202.6
Russia101.3
Colombia73.9
USA73.7
South Africa61.8
China47.4
Canada31.5
Others93.4 2008 - Million Tonnes
Australia and Indonesiaaccount for 48.5% of exports
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
Slide24
Source: IEA Coal Information 2009
13
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
$/to
nne
Europe - ARA cif South Africa - Richards Bay fob Australia - Newcastle fob
Asian demand is distortingworld price differentials
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
25
Source: MCIS
IEA World EnergyOutlookWorld Energy Outlook deals in scenarios –
not forecastsReference scenario is based on ‘business
as usual’ and only reflects climate changemeasures currently in place
Over 50% growth in coal demand 2007 to2030
Highlights the potential for massive growthin coal use to fuel growth in China/Indiaetc
Demonstrates the imperative for CCS
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
26
14
IEA Reference Scenarioshows continued growth
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
27
EU
India
China
Others
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
20072015
2030
472
401
334
346 436837
1,847.00
2,633.00
3,424.00
1,883.00 1,998.002,386.00
Mill
ion
Tonn
esCo
alEq
uiva
lent
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009
Policy Developments
15
IEA CCS roadmap sets thechallenge
Without CCSoverall costs toreduce emissionsto 2005 levels by2050increase by70%
Roadmap envisions100 projectsglobally by 2020and over 3000projects by 2050
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
29
EU attempts to kick-startCCS funding
EU Council has agreed12 CCSdemonstrations by2015
Economic Recoverypackage €1 billion for 6 projects
(including Hatfield) Funding from EUETS
300 Million EUAs fromNew Entrant Reserve
Further fundingneeded frommembers states
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
30
16
UK policy emerges
Financial support for upto four commercial-scaleCCS demonstrations
No new coal without CCSon a defined part of itscapacity
Requirement to retrofitCCS to full capacitywithin five years of CCSbeing judged technicallyand economically proven- planned on the basisthat CCS will be provenby 2020
Annual LuncheonMeeting 16thMarch 2010
31
…but progress is slow
Five months on… And little new emerges “CCS incentive able to
support full retrofit by2025”
Funding for up to fourprojects subsequentlyconfirmed
Energy bill passesthrough parliament
But the competitionruns on
Annual LuncheonMeeting 16thMarch 2010
32
17
CCS Industrial Strategywas launched last week
CCS – a massive industrialgrowth opportunity for the UK
Coal is the most abundantworldwide energy resourcebut it is also the mostpolluting, so there is nosolution to climate changewithout CCS
Yorkshire and Humber is wellplaced to see the benefitsfrom the jobs that investmentin CCS can bring, otherregions will too
For the UK economy as awhole these benefits could beworth up to £6.5 billion ayear, sustaining jobs for up to100,000 people, by 2030
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
33
…and the Conservativeslaunched their policy
A Conservative Government willput UK CCS back on track: Bring the current CCS
competition to a rapidconclusion
Expand the demonstrationprogramme to at least fourfacilities
We will ensure that CCSpipelines are planned andlocated where the greatestcapacity for growth can beprovided
Preference to fund the CCSdemonstrations from EUEmissions Trading Systemreceipts, but would adopt theCCS levy in the current EnergyBill to avoid further delays
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
34
18
Conclusions Coal is the world’s fastest growing energy source Reserves are widespread and resources are
massive – long term potential for UCG Coal is also required for steel production – key for
rapidly developing economies IEA ‘business as usual’ scenario shows 50%
growth in coal by 2030 Highlights the imperative for CCS EU/UK policy is enthusiastic about CCS -but
progress is slow “Global leadership” from Europe and USA is surely
needed before China and India will come on board
RSC Symposium24th March 2010
35
www.coalimp.org.uk
Thank [email protected]