World Energy Outlook: Implications for Climate Changeec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2008/... · Emissions and Climate Change Global CO 2 . emissions rise to 42 gigatonnes
China & India will contribute more than 40% of the increase in global energy demand to 2030 on current trends
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Increase in Primary Energy Demand & Investment Between 2005 & 2030 as Share of World Total
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China and India are projected to account for about 45% of the global increase in primary energy demand in 2005-30. Developing countries in total contribute around 74% of the increase. Their economies and populations grow much faster than those of the industrialised countries, pushing up their energy use. OECD countries account for one-fifth and the transition economies for 6%. China is projected to overtake the United States soon after 2010 to become the world’s largest energy-consuming country. In 2005, US demand was 34% larger than Chinese demand. The share of China and India in the increase in energy use is greatest – at over 80% - for coal.
Global CO2 emissions rise to 42 gigatonnes in 2030, 57% above current levels and double the 1990 level
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Rising global fossil energy use will continue to drive up energy-related CO2 emissions over the projection period. A range of government policies, including those intended to address climate change, air pollution and energy security, have helped to slow the rate of growth in emissions in some countries in recent years, but have not stopped it. In the Reference Scenario, which examines the implications of governments adopting no new policies, world emissions jump by 57% between 2005 and 2030 to 41.9 gigatonnes, an average rate of growth of 1.8% per year. China and India together account for 56% of the increase in emissions between 2005 and 2030 in the RS. Most of the rest comes from other DCs. The world’s top five emitting countries – the United States, China, Russia, Japan and India – contribute two-thirds of this increase.
Around 60% of the global increase in emissions in 2005-2030 comes from China & India
Cumulative Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
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CO2 emissions need to be looked at in a historical context. From 1900 to 2005, the United States and the EU countries combined accounted for just over half of cumulative global emissions. China accounted for only 8% and India 2%. In the Reference Scenario, China’s share of emissions from 1900 to 2030 rises to 16%, approaching that of the United States (25%) and the European Union (18%). India’s cumulative emissions overtake those of Japan. A significant share of the energy used in China, as an export-oriented economy, goes to manufacturing its exported goods. We estimate that the energy-related CO2 emissions embedded in China’s domestic production for export were 1.6 Gt in 2004, or 34% of China’s total emissions.
In line with G-8 appeal in Heiligendamm, by 2030 emissions are reduced to some 23 Gt and by 50% in 2050
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In the Baseline Scenario, emissions rise from 27 Gt in 2005 to 62 Gt in 2050 In the BLUE Map scenario, emissions decline to 14 Gt. This implies an emissions reduction of 48 Gt in 2050, compared to Baseline. End-use energy efficiency accounts for 36% of the emissions reduction. Renewables account for 21%. CCS accounts for 19%. The role of nuclear is more important than this graph would suggest, as nuclear already plays an important role in the Baseline scenario. The graph shows the consistency of the WEO2007 450 ppm case and the BLUE Map scenario. The main change between 2030 and 2050 is the rapid growth of CCS, renewables and end-use fuel switching.
Average Annual Power Generation Capacity Additions, 2010 – 2050 – An Energy Revolution
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So what would our BLUE Map scenario mean in practice in the power sector, let me give you some examples. All power plants built from 2012 onwards would have to be carbon free, or existing plants need to be retrofitted with CCS. The equivalent of 35 coal and 20 gas fired power plants would have to be fitted with carbon-capture and storage technology each and every year between 2010 and 2050. In addition, we would have to build an additional 26 new nuclear plants each and every year throughout that period. Furthermore, renewables would have to play a much stronger role. The average annual addition of wind capacity would triple compared to today’s level. Even solar technologies – photovoltaics and concentrating solar power – would need capacity additions similar to those for established fossil fuel technologies. This clearly indicates the magnitude of the challenge. Technological change will play a quintessential role. We estimate that such change would be achievable, but its realization will depend on a global political will and a policy framework that needs to be put in place. Most importantly, we would have to improve energy intensity by 2.7 % annually, whereas currently the rate is a mere 1.6%. This will reduce the need for new power supply capacity additions. I leave it to each of you to decide for yourselves whether such a program would be feasible.
Share of Cumulative Power-Generation Investment by Technology, 2006-2030
The power generation investment are $7.5 trillion (and $1 trillion for early retirement ) – an increase of more than 30% compared to RS
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The capital costs involved in stabilising CO2-equivalent concentrations at around 450 ppm would be very large. Unlike the Alternative Policy Scenario, in which investment needs are lower than in the Reference Scenario, the 450 Stabilisation Case implies much higher investment in the power-generation sector compared with the Reference Scenario. Cumulative investments in this case are $7.5 trillion, compared with $5.6 trillion in the Reference Scenario (an increase of 33%) and $5.5 trillion in the Alternative Policy Scenario (37% more). Early retirement of fossil-fuel generating capacity accounts for almost $1 trillion of the additional investment. The average capital cost of new capacity is 56% higher than in the Reference Scenario. Generating-capacity needs are lower compared with the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios because of the increased efficiency of electricity use. But this is outweighed by the much higher capital cost of zero- and low-carbon technologies. The implication is substantially higher electricity prices for consumers. CCS accounts for a fifth of cumulative power-generation investment needs in 2006-2030.
Reducing emissions by 50% would require options with a cost up to USD 200/t, possibly even up to USD 500/t CO2.
A New Energy Revolution ?
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The use of existing technologies or those under development can return energy-related CO2 emissions towards today’s levels by 2050. Emissions can be brought back to today’s level in 2050 if measures with a cost up to USD 50/t are applied globally (the ACT scenarios). A 50% emissions reduction worldwide by 2050 would be an extremely challenging target (the BLUE scenarios). It would not be possible with technologies that are available today. Especially the transport sector will require new solutions. In other sectors it would be possible but the cost would be very high. In all sectors new technologies are also needed to bring the cost down further. Emissions can be reduced by 50% compared to the 2005 level if measures with a cost up to USD 200/t CO2 are considered. The cost may be even rise to USD 500/t CO2, if less progress is made in terms of cost reduction for new technologies, notably for the transport sector.
CO2 Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Stations built prior to 2015 in China & India
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Capacity additions in the next decade will lock-in technology & largely determine emissions through 2050 & beyond
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A considerable amount of new capacity is due to be added over the next decade to meet booming electricity demand in China & India. Investment decisions on new capacity over that period will lock-in technology and largely determine emission levels for many decades, as most power plants – especially coal-fired stations – have very long economic lives. Most new power plants that are projected to be built between now and 2015 are coal-fired. Those power stations, in the absence of policies to force or encourage their early retirement, will continue to operate and emit large quantities of CO2 until well beyond 2050. Thus, even if no coal stations are built after 2015, total emissions from all coal-fired plants would be almost as high in 2060-2070 as they are today as you can see here.
