world energy outlook: the role of nuclear & renewables
DESCRIPTION
Intervenant: Fatih birol Chief Economist - Director, Global Energy Economics International Energy Agency thèmes: shifts in the global energy system shifting, oil & gas, nuclear & renewables, world economy Présentation lors de la convention SFEN du 4 avril 2013. Retrouvez la vidéo de la conférence à la fin de la présentation ou sur youtube. http://youtu.be/Mbmp49ISwrATRANSCRIPT
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The role of The role of
nuclear & nuclear & renewablesrenewables
© OECD/IEA 2013
Dr. Fatih BIROL
IEA Chief Economist
Paris, 3 April 2013
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The contextThe context
� Foundations of global energy system shifting
� Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries
� Retreat from nuclear in some others
� Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency
© OECD/IEA 2013
� Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency
� Changing global energy map likely to have significant
implications for competiveness & geopolitics
� All-time high oil prices acting as brake on EU economic recovery
� Economy & energy: a delicate balancing act in the context of need
for decisive & effective global climate change policy
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Emerging economies steer energy markets Emerging economies steer energy markets
Share of global energy demand
60%
80%
100%
Middle East
India
China
Non-OECDRest of non-OECD
6 030 Mtoe 12 380 Mtoe 16 730 Mtoe
© OECD/IEA 2013
Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035,
underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East
20%
40%
60%
1975 2010 2035
China
OECD
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A United States oil & gas transformation A United States oil & gas transformation
US oil & gas production
Unconventional gas
mboe/d
15
20
25
© OECD/IEA 2013
The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications
well beyond the United States
Conventional gas
Unconventional oil
Conventional oil
5
10
15
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
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Different trends in oil & gasDifferent trends in oil & gas
import dependencyimport dependency
Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries
60%
80%
100%Gas Imports
European Union
Japan
2010
2035
© OECD/IEA 2013
While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries,
0%
20%
40%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Oil imports
United States
ChinaIndia
20%Gas Exports
the United States swims against the tide
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Unconventional gas: implicationsUnconventional gas: implications
for both energy security & economyfor both energy security & economy
10
12
14
16
Do
lla
rs p
er
MB
tu (
20
12
)
5
6
7
8
Mil
lion
to
nn
es US steam coal exports to EU
(right axis)
US gas price
(Henry Hub)
© OECD/IEA 2013
At its highest level in 2012, EU gas prices traded about 5 times higher than in the US;
a price decoupling stemming from oil indexation & the unconventional gas revolution
0
2
4
6
8
1Q2007 1Q2008 1Q2009 1Q2010 1Q2011 1Q2012
Do
lla
rs p
er
MB
tu (
20
12
)
0
1
2
3
4 Europe gas price
(German import)
4Q2012
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EU gas imports:EU gas imports:
prospects for improved pricingprospects for improved pricing
156 bcm per year of EU gas import contracts expiring before 2025 by source
Russia: pipe
Egypt: LNG
Qatar: LNG
Other: LNG
© OECD/IEA 2013
Gas contracts equal to two-thirds of EU imports from external sources are expiring
before 2025, at time when LNG & unconventional gas is expected to grow strongly
Algeria: pipeAlgeria: LNG
Nigeria: LNG
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Economics of power generationEconomics of power generation
& CO& CO22 pricesprices
European Union, January 2013
CO2 cost
Fuel cost
60
80
100$/MWh
© OECD/IEA 2013
Current CO2 price
8 $/tonneBreak-even CO2 price
67 $/tonne
Each $1 per MBtu of additional gas-coal spread requires
a further $15 per tonne of CO2 price to achieve cost parity
0
20
40
60
Coal plant Gas plant
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A power shift to emerging economiesA power shift to emerging economies
Change in power generation, 2010-2035
China
Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables
India
© OECD/IEA 2013
3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000
TWh
2 000
Need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in global demand,
with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity
-1 000 0 1 000
Japan
European Union
United States
TWh
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90
120
150GW 2011
2035
Nuclear installed gross capacity in selected regions
Asia leading the rise in nuclear capacityAsia leading the rise in nuclear capacity
© OECD/IEA 2013
0
30
60
90
China EuropeanUnion
UnitedStates
Japan & Korea
Russia India
Majority of nuclear additions come from just four countries – China, Korea,
India & Russia – with half of world net incremental capacity from China alone
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Wide variations in the price of powerWide variations in the price of power
Average household electricity prices, 2035
15
20
25cents/kWh
2011
OECD
© OECD/IEA 2013
Electricity prices are set to increase with the highest prices persisting
in the European Union & Japan, well above those in China & the United States
5
10
15
China United States European Union Japan
2011
Non-OECD
average
OECD
average
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60%
80%
100%
Sha
re o
f e
lect
rici
ty g
en
era
tio
n
800
1 000
1 200TWh
EUEU moving towards cleaner formsmoving towards cleaner forms
of electricity generationof electricity generation
EU electricity generation by selected low carbon technology
& share of generation by scenario
450
Change to
2035 over 2010:
2010
© OECD/IEA 2013
0%
20%
40%
60%
Low
carbon
Sha
re o
f e
lect
rici
ty g
en
era
tio
n
0
200
400
600
Nuclear Hydro Wind Bio-
energy
Solar
PV
Other
renew.
CCS
450
NPS
Wind & solar push up the share of renewables, with low-carbon reaching
two-thirds of total generation in the NPS & around 90% in the 450 Scenario
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Gas
15%
Potential emissions from
Staying within a 2Staying within a 2°°°°°°°°C worldC world
CO2 equivalent of today’s fossil fuel reserves
2°C carbon
budget
© OECD/IEA 2013
Coal
63%
Oil
22%
Potential emissions from
fossil fuels reserves
2 860 Gt CO2
In a 2°C world, more than two-thirds of current fossil fuel reserves
cannot be consumed before 2050 unless CCS is widely deployed
budget
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ConclusionsConclusions
� Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy,
environmental & economic objectives
� Changing outlook for energy production & use may redefine
energy pricing, economic competiveness & geopolitical balances
© OECD/IEA 2013
energy pricing, economic competiveness & geopolitical balances
� Shifting away from nuclear can have significant implications for a
country’s energy security, electricity prices & climate change objectives
� Other key policies to improve European energy cost competitiveness:
leverage prospect of many long-term gas contracts expiring; bolster
domestic gas supply & energy efficiency; effective renewables policy