world future the fork in the road
TRANSCRIPT
The Fork in the RoadHow accelerating change is remaking consumer insights and
emphasizing iteration or anticipation.
Robert MoranBRUNSWICK INSIGHT
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Follow the Discussion
@robertpmoran
#wf13
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Market Research The process and corporate function through which
larger businesses identify customer needs, analyze customer feedback and test products, pricing and promotions.
Developed alongside the mass market and advertising in the post-war years.
$33.5 Billion USD Global Industry
$11.2 Billion USD Industry in the United States
Reports to CMO
Follows a “think. do.” model of research, analysis, and strategic recommendation
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Roaring Turbulence
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The problem of accelerating,
discontinuous change.
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Metabolic Rate of Capitalism Quickening
Source: National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” Report
Source: Richard Foster, Yalehttp://www.innosight.com/innovation-resources/strategy-innovation/upload/creative-destruction-whips-through-corporate-america_final2012.pdf
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The 10Ds of Destruction and Rebirth
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The Acceleration Challenge to Market Research:
Snapshot in Time & the Driver’s Side Window
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22 Plausible Futures Scenarios
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• Mobile surveys• Location-based
research• Augmented
Reality• “Lifestreaming”
• Online surveys• Prompted by
declining telephone survey participation rates and onlinetechnology
• Data becomes abundant and inexpensive
• Shift to “convenience samples”
• Face to Face surveys
Face to Face Telephone1920-1950
• Telephone surveys
• Vertically integrated data collection systems
Online Geomobile1950-2000
2000-
Data Collection—Asking (Survey)Behavioral
• Move away from the survey instrument as the main research vehicle
• Dramatic shift from Intrusive, interrogatory research, to passive, listening-based research
• Social media research
• “Listening posts”
• MROCS• Text analytics• “Rateocracy”
2008-
Listening Neurological
• Track neurological response
• fMRI • Eye-tracking
and other biological response monitoring
• CRM software• Big data• Experimental
marketing
• Geotracking• Clickstreams
ObservationalUGC
• Collaborative co-creation
• User-generated content (UGC)
• Insights communities (MROCs) will dominate
• Creation of “design communities”
Co-Creative
• Focus shifts from mapping current opinion to anticipating future behaviors and alternative futures
• Mass simulation gaming*
• MROC Delphi panels*• Strategic Foresight• Agent-based
computational modeling
• Predictive markets
Anticipatory
Anticipatory
2011
2010 2012
2012
The Forecast
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Socially Driven Scenarios
Technology Driven Scenarios
Economically Driven Scenarios
The Incredible Shrinking Survey
Geo-Timed Feedback Dispersive Convergence
Do Not DisturbRapid In-Market Experimentation
Lilliput
Back to the Future Iterative Insight Streaming E-Agency
What was privacy? Portal Power Global Depth
Power to the People Let’s Play a Game Need for Speed
From Value to Values Limbic Space Invaders
Tribal Rituals Nano-Targeting Anticipation
Epidemiology
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Fast Fashion (or Lean Startup)
Do. Think.Speed to MarketRapid Iteration
Products as Real-Time ExperimentsAnalysis of Sales Data
Futurist
Think. Do.Anticipate Futures
Analysis of S.T.E.E.P. Factors
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Solving for AccelerationA choice between two models.
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Market Research and the “Think. Do.” Model
Think.Do.
Do.Think.
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RIMEing: Rapid In Market Experimentation
Fast, inexpensive and fashionable clothing
in a tight feedback loop.
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Big Changes on the Horizon
http://www.wfs.org/reports/UrgentWarningsReport2ndEd.pdf
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…and a different society.
http://www.wfs.org/reports/UrgentWarningsReport2ndEd.pdf
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Navigating Change:
Enoughness
Collaborative Consumption
Prosumers
Thank You
Follow me on Twitter at @robertpmoran