world in 2015 and strategies under uncertainty · 2015-01-02 1 world in 2015 and strategies under...
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WORLD IN 2015 AND STRATEGIES UNDER UNCERTAINTYSea-Jin Chang
NUS Business School
World GDP Growth in 2015
Japan 1.6
Eastern Europe 2.1
Asia 6.0
Australia 2.7
Western Europe 1.4North America 3.2
Latin America 2.8
Middle East 4.1
Africa 4.5
Source: Economist
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Source: Economist
China 7%
Indonesia 5.9%
Malaysia 5.4%
Singapore 3.8%
Korea 3.5%
India 6.5%
Source: Economist
Vietnam 6.6%
Asia still leads world growth
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However, we need to face a long-term downward trend
Source: Eurostat
Same in Korea
출처 : 통계청「경제활동인구조사」
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New World Order: labor< capital< idea
Further globalization of labor
Further automation
Creative ideas will count more
Unskilled labor will be further squeezed in the future
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2015
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Korea in mid-life(income) crisis
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Korean firms in mid-life crisis
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Sony vs. Samsung: Development Stage
1946 20151969
Key:Sony Samsung
Samsung: now, where to go???
Time
Sony: Where to
go???
Business Level
Samsung: Clear direction
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Highly Educated People
“One genius can feed 10,000 others…” Chairman Lee, 2002
Samsung attracts top
talents in Korea
12% people have Ph.D.
or M.S. degree
Recruiting Hi-potential employees
Recruit top manages and
engineers (S-class
employees)
Tap foreign talents
Samsung tries to recruit more foreign talents and
give more responsibilities to foreign subsidiaries.
Samsung may need more overseas M&As.
Creativity and globalization are the key for the future.
Korean firms in the eyes of locals
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2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5
China
India
Greece
Brazil
Portugal
Ireland
Poland
Korea
UK
Italia
Australia
France
Canada
Japan
Germany
Sweden
US
Bloom, and J. Van Reenen, Why Do Management Practices Differ across Firms and Countries?, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2010. 한국데이터는카이스트경영대학 Executive MBA 학생들에대한 2014년설문인터뷰
Management Practices Scores
2.7
2.8
2.9
3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
Monitoring & Control Target Management Incentive Management
Korea
Canada
Japan
Germany
Sweden
US
Comparison with top 5 countries
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High
Low
LowHigh Relative Cost Position
Productivity Frontier shifts with innovation
Samsung, where to go?
Differentiation
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Strategy = Map
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Strategy = Map = Where+ How
Innovation
New product
New business
Globalization
……
Creativity
Open innovation
M&A, alliances
Global talents
……
+ ?
Area C:
∆ confidence<0
Area A:
∆ confidence> ∆ capabilities>0
Area D:∆ capa-bilities<0
Confidence
Cap
abilities
Low High
Low
High
Area B:
∆ capabilities> ∆ confidences>0
Ability to choose the best option
Maintain one’s choice despite of noisy feedbacks from environments
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Strategic confidence
• Goal• Respectable goals, visions, missions of a firm
• Experience• Put different weights on noisy feedbacks from external
environments
• Experiment• Small scale tests and feedbacks from various internal parties.
• Understanding of external environments• Interpret feedback from external environments with more
confidence
Strategy = Map = Where+ How
Innovation
New product
New business
Globalization
……
Creativity
Open innovation
M&A, alliances
Global talents
……
+ Why