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World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water. WMO. Impacts of Climate Change on water related risks. AVINASH TYAGI Director, Climate and Water Department WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION. Session 1.3.3: Managing water related risks in changing climate - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water
WMO: Climate and Water Department www.wmo.int
WMO
AVINASH TYAGIDirector, Climate and Water Department
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION
Session 1.3.3: Managing water related risks in changing climateSession 1.3.3: Managing water related risks in changing climateFifth World Water ForumFifth World Water Forum
16-22 March, 2009, Istanbul, TURKEY16-22 March, 2009, Istanbul, TURKEY
Impacts of Climate Change Impacts of Climate Change on water related riskson water related risks
IntroductionIntroduction
What is global warming?What is global warming?
“Global warming” refers to increases in global temperatures as a result of an accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Greenhouse gases,
such as CO2 , CH4, N2O, HFCS,…
Potential Impacts of Climate ChangePotential Impacts of Climate Change
Precipitation form, timing and quantity
Sea level rise
Air temperature
OBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONS
Global mean temperatures Global mean temperatures
100 0.0740.018
50 0.1280.026
Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
Period Rate
Years /decade
Sea level in 20Sea level in 20thth century century
Rates of sea level rise:•1.8 + 0.5 mm yr-1, 1961-2003•1.7 + 0.5 mm yr-1, 20th Century•3.1 + 0.7 mm yr-1, 1993-2003
SPM-3b
Smoothed annual anomalies for precipitation (%) over land from 1900 to 2005; other regions are dominated by variability.
Changes in Land precipitation Changes in Land precipitation
Increases
Decreases
Between 18 and 21 mm/yrBetween 21 and 27 mm/yrBetween 27 and 30 mm/yrBetween 30 and 36 mm/yr
Between -21 and -24 mm/yrBetween -18 and -21 mm/yrBetween -15 and -18 mm/yrBetween -9 and -12 mm/yrBetween -6 and -9 mm/yrBetween -3 and -6 mm/yr Between 0 and -3 mm/yr
Wet Season
Dry Season
Source: Boer et al (2007)
Effects on the hydrological cycleEffects on the hydrological cycle
• Precipitations
• Evaporation
• Soil moisture
• Glaciers
• Streamflow
• Groundwater
• Floods
• Low flows
• Water Demand
Base flows in rivers Base flows in rivers
1
20
40
60
81
900101 25.days/mm 9301 9401 9501 9601 9701 9801 9901 0001 0101 YYYMM
A
A
A site 2120102 020120102 Ciliwung at Ciliwung-Katulampa Debit m3/det .734units/mm Origin 1
0
2 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
6 9 3 0
7 7 0 1 0 1 8 0 0 1 8 3 0 1 8 6 0 1 8 9 0 1 9 2 0 1 9 5 0 1 9 8 0 1Y Y M M
A
A
A s i t e 3 2 7 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 2 7 0 0 0 1 S B A r i t o a t S B a r i t o - M T e w e h0
100
200
300
400
500
610
760101 7701 7801 7901 8001 8101 8201 8301 8401 8501 YYMM
A
A
A site 4570006 040570006 S Larona at S Larona-Warau Debit m3/det
Barito
Ciliwung
Larona
Source: Water R&D Center, Bandung (2007).
Perth inflows
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
YEAR
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
Tota
l ann
ual i
nflo
w (G
L)
Inflow 1911 to 1974 (338 GL av) 1975 to 2001 (167 GL av)
Note: A year is taken as May to April and labelled year is start (winter) of year Year 2001 inflows are not for a full year
Runoff from Finland:
February
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002
Year
Mea
n f
low
(m
3 s
-1)
Potential ImpactsPotential Impacts
• All major socio-economic sectors will be affected, with a wide range of regional impacts:– Water
– Ecosystems
– Food
– Coastal systems and low-lying areas
– Industry, settlement and society
– Health
• Through climate change and the effects of e.g… - changes in the hydrological cycle and water balance - sea level rise - increased water temperatures
• Through increased climate variability in the form of more serious and frequent extremes, such as floods and droughts
Global warming will hit through waterGlobal warming will hit through water
Source:TJK
Increasing number of hydrological Increasing number of hydrological extremesextremes
• Meuse river, December 1993
• Rhine river (secondary channel in floodplain), August 2003
There’s a consistent 50-year upward trend in every region except Oceania.
Changes in major floods 1950-2000Changes in major floods 1950-2000
Flood damages are increasingFlood damages are increasing
Relative Vulnerability Relative Vulnerability of coastal deltasof coastal deltas
Demographic ChangesDemographic Changes
(i) Changes in socio-economic systems
Land-use change, increasing exposure and damage potential – floodplain development, growing wealth in flood-prone areas
(ii) Changes in terrestrial systems
Land-cover change - urbanization, deforestation, elimination of wetlands and floodplains, river regulation
(iii) Changes in climate and atmospheric system
Holding capacity of the atmosphere, intense precipitation, seasonality, circulation patterns
Reasons for changes in Reasons for changes in flood risk and vulnerabilityflood risk and vulnerability
Sou
rce:
Kun
dzew
icz
& S
chel
lnhu
ber,
200
4
Flood Damages as Percent of GDP(Based on damages and GDP data in 2000 dollars)
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
1900
1903
1906
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Dir
ect
floo
d da
mag
es a
s pe
rcen
t of
GD
P
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Tota
l flo
od d
amag
es a
s pe
rcen
t of
GD
P
Direct damages as percent of GDP
Total damages as percent of GDP
MississippiRiver Valley
Ohio & Lower Mississippi River
Basins
Kansas &Missouri Rivers
HurricaneDiane
Hurricane Agnes
Teton DamFailure
Midwest Floods
138%
61%
99%
PROJECTIONSPROJECTIONS
2121stst Century CenturyIs this going to be the Is this going to be the flood flood century?century?
(Too much water )(Too much water )
……or the or the drought drought century?century?
Probability distributions: temperatures Probability distributions: temperatures
(Adapted from Climate – Into the 21st Century, WMO, 2003, Cambridge University Press)
HazardsHazards
– Floods– Droughts– Flow regime
changes
changes in the averages/ trends
““Climate change: the hydrologic cycleClimate change: the hydrologic cycle””
changes in variability (magnitude, severity, duration)
General Circulation Models (GCMs)General Circulation Models (GCMs) to estimate future climate variables.to estimate future climate variables.
GCMs are constantly improving, and converging to observations.
Reichler and Kim (2007) BAMS
AOGCMs
• discretise the equations of fluid motion
•parameterize processes at the subgrid scale.
Due to model uncertainty, an ensemble of models is more accurate than any single model.
Temperature projections are much better than precipitation projections. Climate Impacts Group (2007)
Figure 10.12
AR4 WGIFig. 10.12
Annual mean changes of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff and evaporation
(2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999)
SRES A1B scenario
AR4 WGIFig. 10.18Changes in extremesChanges in extremes
2080–2099 minus 1980–1999 for the A1B scenario
annual total precipitation /number of wet days
annual maximumnumber of consecutivedry days
Climate change on NZ east coast: Climate change on NZ east coast: Unirrigated drought risk, 2080sUnirrigated drought risk, 2080s
“Low-medium” scenario “Medium-high” scenario
Coastal floodingCoastal floodingChange from the present day to the 2080sChange from the present day to the 2080s
Unmitigated emissions
Stabilisation at 750 ppm Stabilisation at 550 ppm
99/81235Hadley Center
Changes in river runoff from the present day to the 2080s
Unmitigated emissions
Stabilisation of CO2 at 750 ppm Stabilisation of CO2 at 550 ppm
–75 –50 –25 –5 to 5 25 50 75Change in annual runoff (%)
Downscaling from Global to Basin LevelsDownscaling from Global to Basin Levels
We must downscale GCM data to an appropriate resolution for hydrological predictions.
Resistance StrategiesResistance Strategies
““Resistance” strategies focus mainly on the hazard (flood, Resistance” strategies focus mainly on the hazard (flood, drought, etc.) by aiming at preventiondrought, etc.) by aiming at prevention
Rainwater Harvesting:Rainwater Harvesting:Reservoir in a buildingReservoir in a building
More efficient irrigation systems
DEMAND Management
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Seasonal climate forecast anomalies
Climate monitoring
Malaria monitoring at sentinel sites
Climate Alert System (CAS)Climate Alert System (CAS)ExamplesExamples
Climate Alert: low precip sets stage
Climate Alert: high precip may trigger
High precip; sentinels activated
Monthly, Seasonal, Interannual MonitoringMonthly, Seasonal, Interannual Monitoring
El Niño and La NiñaEl Niño and La Niña
El Niño (1997)
La Niña (1988)
Regional Climate Outlook Forums
GHACOF: Greater Horn of Africa COFSARCOF: Southern Africa COFPRESAO: Prévision Saisonnière en Afrique de l’OuestPRESAC: Prévision Saisonnière en Afrique CentraleFOCRAII: Forum On regional Climate monitoring, assessment and prediction for Regional Association II (Asia)
SSACOF: Southeast of South America COFWCSACOF: Western Coast of South America COFCCOF: Caribbean COFFCCA: Foro Regional del Clima de América CentralPICOF: Pacific Islands COFSEECOF: SouthEastern Europe COF
Thank you
<0.04oC/year Between 0.04 and 0.07 oC/year > 0.07 oC/year
<0.04oC/year Betweem 0.04 and 0.07 oC/year > 0.07 oC/year
Maximum Temperature
Minimum Temperature
SOurce: Boer et al (2007)