World Population Growth Rate: 1950-2050

U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

G

row

th r

ate

(per

cent

) Pe

r

Too Few Babies? Number of children per woman from peak year to present

Source: U.N. Population Division

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Peak Year 2000-05

Repla

cem

ent ra

te

Countries with Falling Population

• Hungary Moldova• Bulgaria Belarus• Estonia Russian Federation• Georgia Czech Republic• Latvia Poland• Armenia Germany• Romania Japan• Lithuania Croatia• Ukraine Slovenia

Countries with Population beginning to decline 2010-2030

• Italy Macedonia• Slovakia Spain• Bosnia Taiwan• Greece South Korea• Serbia Austria• Portugal Finland• Cuba China

Fertility Rates Dropping Over Time:Average Number of Children Born per Woman

Life Expectancy at Birth

Average Retirement Age of Men(and number of years in retirement as of 2010)

65+ population as % population aged 20+

Public Old-Age BenefitsPensions and Health (% GDP)

% Change in Population, 2005-50

Government Pensions as % of After-Tax Income; Households Age 60+

Public Debt/GDP 2011—Rapidly RisingWho Is Deepest in the Hole?

UK 83%US 100% (rising very fast)France 84%Germany 79%Canada70% (falling)Italy 120%Japan 230%Australia 17%Sweden 41% (falling)

Median Age of Population

Country 1950 2005 2050China 23.9 32.5 45.0Czech Republic 32.7 38.9 55.0Germany 27.3 42.1 51.8India 21.3 23.8 38.6Iraq 20.1 18.9 31.1Japan 22.3 42.9 56.2Kenya 20.0 18.1 27.0Uganda 18.2 15.3 23.3U.S. 30.0 36.0 41.1

Labor Supply and Taxes: 1970-74 & 1993-96

(work by Ed Prescott, Nobel Prize, Economics, 2004)

Country Tax rate Hours of Labor per Week per Adult

1970-74 1993-96 1970-74 1993-96

Germany 0.52 0.59 24.6 19.3

France 0.49 0.59 24.4 17.5

Italy 0.41 0.64 19.2 16.5

Canada 0.44 0.52 22.2 22.9

U.K. 0.45 0.44 25.9 22.8

Japan 0.25 0.37 29.8 27.0

U.S. 0.40 0.40 23.5 25.9

Europe Lacks Entrepreneurial Culture

Edmund S. Phelps, Nobel Prize, Economics:“The economic systems in Europe are not well

structured for high performance…. The root problem is a dearth of economic dynamism.”

Compared to the U.S., Canada and U.K., Europeans do not want challenging jobs or responsibility. The concern is about protecting what exists (entitlements). European companies and economies lack “dynamism” and resist entrepreneurial activity.

Europe Withering Away?

Esko Aho, former Prime Minister of Finland, in a report to the European Commission in 2006:

Europe is “living a moderately comfortable life on slowly declining capital. This society, averse to risk and reluctant to change, is in itself alarming, but it is also unsustainable in the face of rising competition from other parts of the world.”

While in China…

• “China has become a nation of opportunity seekers, trusting that any problem can be solved along the way. The competitive advantage of today’s China, as a nation and as a people, is the willingness to adapt to what is necessary and beneficial.”

John Naisbitt, Global Trends Forecaster

Next Door in Russia

• Population 142,000,000• Population is falling about 1 million per

year; low birth rate; life expectancy is falling (disease, alcoholism); aging population

• Russia leased 1 million hectares of forest land in Siberia to China in 2006 in “Joint Venture.” Opened oil pipeline to China in 2010 for $25 billion “loan.”

• What is economic policy in Russia?

Health in Russia Is Very Poor

Meng Dani lives here: “There is so much land, and so little of it is used.” In her hometown in Hailar, Inner Mongolia, “little land, a lot of people, and no work.”

% Average Annual Change Real GDP Per Capita

Nations Rise and Fall and Rise