World Security Threats OverviewWorld Security Threats OverviewNovember 2009November 2009

World Threats Overview

Geographic Areas:• China• Russia• India and Pakistan• Israel and Iran• Mexico

World Threats Overview

Topic Areas:• Jihadism inside the United

States• Pandemic Swine Flu• Threats to perceived Jewish

targets

Threats in China

• Lack of information security• Industrial Espionage

China – Information Security

• Rumors continue to circulate that the Chinese government may require foreign companies to submit their security software for government approval, essentially providing the Chinese with the ability to penetrate their computer systems.

• No information inside China should be considered safe, including factory designs, product designs, product research, proprietary production processes and any other information used to give Dell and industry advantage.

• Most information is passed to private entities in China that have quiet government connections. These entities then replicate factories, products or processes for their own profit.

China – Industrial Espionage

• In addition to their mastery of electronic theft, the Chinese are also proficient in espionage using individuals.

• No foolproof ways to identify a mole prior to employment

• Recruitment of spies after they’ve gained employment at Dell is also possible in both the U.S. and China

• Compartmentalization of information is critical

China – Industrial Espionage Case Study

• Dongfan "Greg" Chung was arrested by the FBI in February 2008 on charges that he passed more than 250,000 sensitive documents to the Chinese related to the development of the Space Shuttle, the B-52 bomber and the F-15 fighter jet. The documents were found in Chung’s home in 2006.

• Chung was born in China and began working for the Chinese in the late 1970s, several years after he became a U.S. citizen and began working for Rockwell International as an engineer.

• Chung was discovered during an investigation into another alleged spy, Chi Mak, who had allegedly been a Chinese sleeper agent for more than 20 years. Mak is suspected of facilitating the transfer of Chung’s material to Chinese authorities.

• During the investigation, the FBI discovered “tasking letters” sent by Chinese authorities, requesting specific information.

Threats in Russia and Eastern Europe

Cyberwarfare as a Foreign Policy Tool

Russia – Cyberwarfare as a Foreign Policy Tool

• Estonia – In April 2007, the Estonian government removed a Soviet-era monument commemorating Soviets who died in World War II, prompting the Russian government to launch a cyber attack on Estonian government servers and communication networks. The campaign lasted nearly two weeks.

Russia – Cyberwarfare as a Foreign Policy Tool

• The attacks first focused on disabling government servers through mass junk emails and denial of service attacks that crashed servers and disabled websites. Later phases of the attack used massive data surges to disable routers and switches throughout the country, effectively disconnecting all internet communication in the country.

• The attacks also directly targeted private sector entities, including banks in the country, creating a number of denial of service attacks that took bank systems offline for days.

• It is unclear whether Russian government personnel were personally carrying out the attacks, though many of the attacks were traced back to computers in Russian government offices.

Russia – Cyberwarfare as a Foreign Policy Tool

• Similar attacks occurred against the Georgian government during the August 2008 war between Russia and Georgia, leaving the Georgian government to create a blog on blogspot.com that was the government’s primary means of communication during the war.

• Eastern European countries and former Soviet States are particularly vulnerable to this type of attack because much of their telecommunications infrastructure is still highly linked to Russian territory.

• STRATFOR believes Poland is at particular risk of this type of attack due to its close alignment with the U.S. on a variety of security and foreign policy matters.

Threats in India and Pakistan

• Islamist Militant Activity in India

• Hindu Nationalist Militant Activity in India

• Impact of Pakistani Operations to clear militants from South Waziristan

India – Threat of Islamist Militancy

• Though several Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) support structures were broken up following the November 2008 attacks in Mumbai, LeT and other Islamist militant groups still maintain the capability and intent to strike out against targets in India.

• There is no indication that attacks against technology facilities are imminent, though economic targets like hotels have been favored by the militants.

• STRATFOR continues to receive warnings from U.S. and international law enforcement entities that attacks in India could be forthcoming.

India – Threat of Hindu Nationalist Militancy

• Hindu Nationalism is currently at a low level following elections earlier in 2009 as these groups attempt to reorganize and remain relevant. Because the nationalist parties and entities are not vying for power, their need to draw attention to their cause through attacks has decreased in the near term.

• Western companies may still face extortion attempts from groups like Shiv Sena, or other threats, especially near prominent Hindu holidays. Western companies continue to face scrutiny and attacks from these groups for perceived slights against Hinduism.

India – Impact of Pakistani Military Operations in Waziristan

• In October 2009, the Pakistani military began operations to clear militant strongholds in South Waziristan. Though these operations seek to halt militant operations on Pakistani territory, they will have the unintended consequence of scattering numerous trained and experienced militant operatives to places outside of Pakistan.

• India is particularly vulnerable to attacks from these individuals given its close proximity to the region and the already established militant support networks in India and the Kashmir region.

Threats in Israel

Possibility of an Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear facilities

Israel – Possibility of Attack against Iran

Several Intelligence Questions:1. How close is Iran to producing

a deliverable nuclear weapon?

2. What is the “red line” that Israel will not allow Iran to cross?

3. Would the U.S. choose to participate in an attack against Iran?

Possible Responses to Israeli Attack against Iran

• Hamas rocket attacks and possible suicide attacks inside Israeli territory

• Hezbollah provocations in southern Lebanon and northern Israel

Israel – Possible Responses to an Attack against Iran

Possible Responses to an Israeli Attack against Iran

• Hezbollah attacks against Jewish targets worldwide.

• Because Hezbollah operatives frequently update their surveillance of potential targets around the world, attacks could be launched on short notice against a number of targets the group perceives to be Jewish.

Hezbollah Threat Matrix

Israel – Possibility of Backlash against U.S. Companies

• Companies operating in Israel could face backlash due to their perceived support of the Israeli government.

• American companies could also face backlash due to U.S. support of Israeli military programs.

• Backlash is especially likely in predominantly Muslim areas.

Threats in Mexico and on the U.S.-Mexico Border

• Continuing Cartel Wars for Dominance

• Border Squeeze• Cartel Income Squeeze• Spillover into the U.S.

Mexico – Continuation of the Cartel Wars

• As law enforcement efforts to clamp down on drugs moving from South America into the U.S., cartel routes and methods of moving drugs continue to change.

• Much cartel-related violence throughout Mexico stems from the need to protect the ability to move drugs among valuable through valuables routes and plazas in the area.

Mexico – Drug Cartel Territories

Mexico – Drug Cartel Supply Routes and Distribution Points

Mexico – Continuation of the Cartel Wars

• The areas of most violence are often the most valuable routes. A primary example is Juarez, where cartels battle to maintain control of one of the most valuable entry points into the U.S.

• As long as cartels have a supply of drugs and willing buyers inside the U.S., this situation is unlikely to change substantially, though the exact locations of confrontation can change frequently.

Cartel Violence

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Drug Related Deaths in Mexico

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U.S.-Mexico Border Squeeze

• The most serious violence is seen in border towns – areas that the cartels must control in order to most successfully move their products into the U.S.

• The analogy of squeezing a balloon is useful. As U.S. law enforcement authorities put pressure to halt the flow of drugs in some areas of the border using fences and other advanced interdiction techniques, the flow of drugs will substantially increase in areas of the border that are not as well-secured.

U.S.-Mexico Border Squeeze

Mexico – Cartel Income Troubles

• As U.S. and Mexican authorities clamp down on parts of the drug trade, cartels and individuals who depend on the drug traffic for profit are forced to find other sources of income.

• These individuals are already trained in various crimes and means of subversion. When drug incomes decrease, they are likely to turn to criminal activity to replace their former drug income.

• Increases in kidnapping, extortion, and murder-for-hire are likely as the cartels experience a decrease in drug income.

Drug Related Kidnapping – Mexico Case Study

• Fernando Marti, a 14-year old, was kidnapped in Mexico City on June 4, 2008. Marti was the son of a wealthy business owner.

• The kidnapping occurred as Marti was being driven to school by his chauffeur. A bodyguard was also in the car at the time of the attack. The car was stopped at a phony police checkpoint where the three individuals were abducted. His chauffeur and bodyguard were found dead the next day, stuffed into a car trunk.

Drug Related Kidnapping – Mexico Case Study

• The Marti family reportedly paid a $5 million ransom to a criminal gang related to the drug cartels to secure Fernando’s release.

• Fernando’s body was found in August, more than two months after his abduction.

• Three men, including a local police commander, have been arrested and charged with Marti’s murder. Mexico City authorities said as many as 14 other police officers — all from a unit operating at the Mexico City airport — were under investigation in connection with the death.

Mexico – Spillover Violence inside the U.S.

• These increases in crime are already being seen inside the U.S. in a type of spillover effect. More than 350 kidnappings were reported in Phoenix, Arizona in 2008, though many kidnappings in immigrant communities go unreported.

• Cartels also maintain influence inside Texas and California, where they have the ability to commit a number of crimes.

• Cartels are known to recruit American citizens, especially teenagers, to join their ranks, in an effort to decrease the problems of entering the U.S.

Mexico – Spillover violence inside the U.S.

Rosalio Reta – An American citizen and Texas resident, recruited at age 13 to become an assassin for the Los Zetas crime group.

--Photo courtesy of CNN

Spillover Violence in the U.S. – Case Study

• Austin, Texas – 5 year old Adrian Jaimes was kidnapped from his home in Austin on February 7, 2008.

• Four men driving a grey Volkswagen Jetta with tinted windows pulled up to the Jaimes home as Adrian was sitting in the backseat of his mother’s SUV.

• Police said Adrian’s 10-year old sister was the intended target of the kidnappers. A few weeks earlier, the sister had reported a suspicious car had followed her to school.

Cartel Related Kidnapping in Texas – Case Study

• The family received anonymous calls, demanding $300,000 for the child’s safe return.

• Adrian was found safe in Austin, the same night he was kidnapped.

• The man charged with the kidnapping was a relative.

• Police believe Adrian was kidnapped to coerce his father into paying a drug debt.

Jihadist Threat

• Though al Qaeda and other affiliated groups have failed to carry out attacks inside the U.S. since 2001, recent cases prove they maintain the intent to strike inside the U.S. Their capabilities inside the U.S. have been limited by interception of information regarding plots, leading to neutralization of operatives.

• Federal law enforcement authorities have increased their ability to detect and intercept these threats. However, these efforts may not be enough to prevent all attacks.

Jihadist Threat – Hotel Attacks

Hotels continue to be a favorite target of al Qaeda and its affiliated groups around the world:

1. July 17, 2009 – Suicide attackers detonated explosives in the lobby areas of the Ritz Carlton and J.W. Marriott hotels, leaving at least 8 dead and fifty others injured

2. November 26, 2008 - Mumbai – A group of armed attackers carried out several shootings and bombing attacks, eventually taking hostages at the Taj and Oberoi hotels. The attacks left at least 173 dead and 500 others injured.

3. June 9, 2009 – A group of armed attackers used a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device to break through a security checkpoint at the Pearl Continental hotel in Peshawar, Pakistan, leaving at least 16 dead.

Jihadist Threat – Hotel Attacks

• Hotels represent an economic target, attacking both tourism and business confidence in the region. Additionally, their nature requires that they be very accessible, making the target relatively easy to access and difficult to effectively secure.

• Business travelers should be trained to maintain situational awareness while in hotels, while also being aware of chokepoints inside the hotel and exit pathways in order to best respond to attacks of this sort.

Jihad in the U.S. – The Zazi Case

• Najibullah Zazi was in the final stages of carrying out an attack in September 2009 and traveled to New York City to carry out the final parts of the attack cycle.

• Zazi traveled to Pakistan in early 2009, where he attended al Qaeda training camps and allegedly learned how to create explosive devices using tri-acetone tri-peroxide, or “TATP”.

• Federal documents note that Zazi had already procured the materials needed to create TATP and was attempting to mix the ingredients needed to create TATP prior to his arrest.

• Zazi had apparently planned to carry out the attack in New York City on September 11, 2009.

Jihad in the U.S. – The Zazi Case

• Zazi, a 24-year old Afghan-born man who drove an airport shuttle in Denver, allegedly sought to leave explosive devices inside backpacks that would be detonated inside mass transportation centers in the New York City area, including Grand Central Station. The tactics used are similar to the March 2004 transportation attacks in Madrid, Spain and the June 2006 transportation attacks in Mumbai, India.

• Zazi was intercepted because federal authorities noted his travel to Pakistan. His activities were also being monitored by a confidential federal informant, an Imam in New York who was also later charged in the plot after it emerged that he informed Zazi of the federal surveillance.

Jihad in the U.S. – Dallas Case

• On September 24, 2009, FBI agents arrested Hosam Maher Hossein Smadi, a 19-year old Jordanian man. Smadi had parked an SUV that he believed was packed full of explosives outside Fountain Place, a 60-story skyscraper. He later attempted to use a cellular phone to detonate the device.

• Court documents note that Smadi actually procured the “explosives” from undercover federal agents and did not have direct contact with al Qaeda operatives at that time.

• While this individual was intercepted before he was able to obtain the necessary materials to carry out an attack, the case demonstrates the number of individuals who maintain the intent to strike inside the U.S. who are limited by their ability to procure explosive materials and create viable explosive devices.

Threat of Pandemic Swine Flu

• While the H1N1 virus doesn’t appear to be especially deadly, it is certainly extremely virulent and likely to cause widespread contamination in the coming months

• The politics of the WHO, CDC and other medical bodies when dealing with H1N1 should not be ignored

• Largest current threat is loss of productivity

• Possibility remains that H1N1 could mutate into a more deadly virus

Pandemic Swine Flu – Current Status

Threat of Pandemic Swine Flu

• Ukraine – Currently the most restrictive measures for dealing with swine flu. The Ukrainian Ministry of Health reports that 70 people have died of the virus to date.

• Ukraine reported more than 600,000 new cases of flu during the last week of October, prompting the government to close schools and ban public gatherings, including the cancelation of some election related events.

• The government has also announced it may delay January elections due to the threat of spreading the virus in polling places, raising the possibility that the flu is a convenient excuse to change the electoral environment.

Threat of Pandemic Swine Flu

• China – Travelers continue to be subject to screening upon arrival

• These restrictions do not appear to have a significant impact on commercial traffic

• The Chinese government is likely to implement more severe restrictions if the virus appears to be causing more problems, similar to their response to the late stages of the SARS situation

Threats against Jewish Targets inside the U.S.

• Law enforcement contacts continue to warn that synagogues, community centers and other targets perceived to be Jewish are under threat. The level of credibility and specificity of these threats is unclear.

• These threats come from a variety of groups, including:-Anti-semitic groups and individuals-White hate groups and individuals-Jihadist sympathizers-Black Muslim groups, including organizations like the Black Panthers

• STRATFOR has no specific information that attacks of this sort will be carried out against Dell facilities.

Threats against Jewish Targets – Case Study

• October 29, 2009 – Two individuals were shot and wounded in the parking lot of the Adat Yeshurun Valley Sephardic Synagogue in North Hollywood as they were arriving for morning prayers around 6:30am.

• Despite the presence of security cameras in the building, police have not made an arrest in the case.

• The suspected shooter is believed to be a black male in his early 20s who was wearing a hooded sweatshirt at the time of the attack.

• The motive of the attack is unclear, though police believe the attacker may have been motivated by a personal vendetta against one of the victims

Any Questions?

Fred BurtonSTRATFORVice President of Corporate

Security and Counterterrorismburton@stratfor.com(512)744-4300www.stratfor.com