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Presentation to the 74th OECD Steel Committee Meeting
July 1~2, Paris
worldsteel Short Range Outlook 2013-2014
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worldsteel Short Range Outlook 2013-2014
Macroeconomic Background to the Forecast
Key global economic risks stabilizing
Global economy stuck in a soft patch in early 2013, but recovery expected
in 2013 H2
The Eurozone crisis, albeit stabilizing, still remains critical risk factor
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Source: IMF
IMF GDP Forecast Revisions Risk Premiums (Spread over 10 year German bunds)
Source: Haver Analytics
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Short Range Outlook – Global overview Apparent Steel Use, finished steel (SRO April 2013)
1 412.6 million tonnes, 1.2% growth
1 453.9 million tonnes, 2.9% growth
1 500.3 million tonnes, 3.2% growth
2012
2013 (forecasts)
2014 (forecasts)
SRO submissions cover 96% of the ASU world total (based on 2014 data)
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1 2181 219
1 140
1 3001 395 1 413
1 454 1 500
7.0
0.0
-6.5
14.0
7.3
1.2
2.9 3.2
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mt%
Mt y-o-y % growth
123.1*
Evolution of World Steel Demand (2007-2014) Apparent Steel Use, finished steel (SRO April 2013)
*) 2014 as % of 2007
6
4
6.8
5.0
2.1
3.6
1.2
6.0
5.4
1.7
3.2
0.7
2.5
4.0
1.9
5.0
6.0
Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13
2012 2013
World World w/o China China
Evolution of SRO Growth rate (%), Forecast for 2012 and 2013, World and China
2.93.2
4.5 4.34.5
4.8
2.4
3.33.5
3.1
4.04.0
Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Apr 13
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Regional Breakgown Apparent Steel Use, finished steel (SRO April 2013)
2012 2013 2014 12/11 13/12 14/132014 as
% of 2007
World 1 412.6 1 453.9 1 500.3 1.2 2.9 3.2 123.1
European Union (27) 140.1 139.5 144.1 -9.3 -0.5 3.3 72.4
Germany 37.7 38.2 39.6 -7.6 1.4 3.7 92.8
Spain 10.7 10.3 10.9 -18.5 -3.5 5.3 44.3
NAFTA 131.2 135.0 139.0 7.8 2.9 3.0 98.1
United States 96.7 99.3 102.2 8.4 2.7 2.9 94.4
Central & South America 46.9 49.8 52.0 2.6 6.2 4.3 126.8
Brazil 25.2 26.2 27.2 0.5 4.3 3.8 123.5
CIS 56.5 57.6 59.8 3.3 2.0 3.8 106.1
MENA 63.2 65.2 69.9 2.2 3.2 7.1 128.8
Turkey 28.5 30.6 31.9 5.7 7.5 4.2 134.2
Mt %
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SRO – Regional Overview II Apparent Steel Use, finished steel (SRO April 2013)
2012 2013 2014 12/11 13/12 14/132014 as
% of 2007
World 1 412.6 1 453.9 1 500.3 1.2 2.9 3.2 123.1
Asia 920.4 950.0 976.6 1.8 3.2 2.8 144.5
Developed Asia 142.7 141.8 143.3 -1.8 -0.6 1.0 89.0
China 646.2 668.8 685.5 1.9 3.5 2.5 163.8
India 71.6 75.8 81.1 2.6 5.9 7.0 157.6
Other Emerging Asia 60.0 63.6 66.7 9.6 6.0 4.9 147.8
Developed Economies 389.0 390.5 399.6 -1.9 0.4 2.3 84.3
Emerging & Developing
Economies excl. China377.4 394.6 415.1 3.6 4.5 5.2 127.4
Mt %
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Post-Crisis Evolution of Steel Demand Apparent Steel Use, finished steel (SRO April 2013)
10
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2007=100
World China Developed Economies Em. & Dev. Economies excl. China
Evolution of Steel Demand, 2007 = 100 Apparent Steel Use, finished steel
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Changing Industry Geography
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55.5%
57.7%
67.4%
64.8%
64.8%
65.2%
65.3%
65.1%
16.3%
15.1%
10.5%
11.1%
11.1%
9.9%
9.6%
9.6%
11.6%
10.7%
7.3%
8.6%
8.7%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
4.6%
4.1%
3.2%
3.7%
3.9%
4.0%
4.0%
4.0%
4.5%
4.8%
5.2%
4.7%
4.4%
4.5%
4.5%
4.7%
3.4%
3.6%
2.9%
3.4%
3.3%
3.3%
3.4%
3.5%
4.1%
4.0%
3.5%
3.7%
3.8%
3.8%
3.9%
3.9%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Asia EU (27) NAFTA CIS MENA Central & South America RoW
Regional Share in World Steel Demand Apparent Steel Use, finished steel
61.1%
63.4%
73.7%
71.3%
71.6%
72.5%
73.1%
73.4%
38.9%
36.6%
26.3%
28.7%
28.4%
27.5%
26.9%
26.6%
34.3%
36.7%
48.4%
45.2%
45.5%
45.7%
46.0%
45.7%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Emerging & Developing Economies Developed Economies China
Changing Industry Geography
Country ASU [Mt] Country ASU [Mt]
China 418.4 China 685.5
United States 108.3 United States 102.2
Japan 81.2 India 81.1
South Korea 55.2 Japan 62.2
India 51.5 South Korea 55.3
Germany 42.7 Russia 44.6
Russia 40.4 Germany 39.6
Italy 35.9 Turkey 31.9
Spain 24.5 Brazil 27.2
Turkey 23.8 Italy 21.7
TOP 10 (2007) TOP 10 (2014)
Top 10 accounts for 81.3% of world ASU in 2014
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Top 10 Steel Using Countries : 2007 vs 2014
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SRO - Summary
In 2012, world steel industry saw slowest growth in the post-crisis
period
Weak recovery expected in 2013, but further pick up in 2014
China entering a slower growth phase with rebalancing and emerging
economies’ growth momentum weakened compared to the pre-crisis
Europe’s prospects remain weak with diverging gap
US growth momentum weakens in H1 2013 due to the fiscal
consolidation, but longer term outlook positive
Bright spots : Central & South America, MENA, developing Asia
excluding China
Some positive notes: risks in the global economy have abated
considerably. In 2014, almost all countries will show positive growth
Uncertainty continues to prevail; the Euro zone Crisis remains key risk
factor along, China’s new pace of growth adds to uncertainty
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worldsteel.org
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ISSF Report to
OECD Steel Committee
Paris
02 July 2013
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Stainless Steel Categories
Category Typical chemical Characteristic
composition
CrMn steels Cr ~ 16% - 19% nickel-reduced stainless steel,
(200 series) Mn ~ 5.5% - 10% austenitic structure
Ni ~ 0.5% - 6%
CrNi steels Cr ~ 16% - 20% standard chrome-nickel
(300 series) Ni ~ 8% - 22% stainless steel,
(Mo, Si, etc) austenitic structure
Cr steels Cr ~ 10.5% - 19% standard chrome nickel-free
(400 series) (Mo, Si, Mn, etc) stainless steel,
ferritic structure
Alternatives to high Ni containing steels?
CrMn steels
Duplex steels
Cr steels
Please note: no chrome = no stainless steel!
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1 mill mt
35.4 mill mt
1. Oil Crisis 2. Oil Crisis
Gulf War
Asian
Crises
2012p
Recession 2001
1950
Compound annual growth:
Original time series: 5.91%
Trend growth: 5.58%
World Stainless Crude Steel
Production 1950 – 2012p in million tons
World
Financial
Crises
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Stainless Steel Production
Similar Performance as Plastics –
but more volatile
Stainless Steel
Plastics
Index 1990 = 100
1980 2011
6.9 million mt
33.6 million mt
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Volatility of Nickel Creates Volatility of Stainless Steel
Prices and Initiates very high Stock Fluctuations
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Global S C R Stock Changes all Products
Agreed Models
2007 2008 2009 tons 2010 2011 2012
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Stainless Crude Steel by Categories (2012 preliminary)
Note: due to major corrections of Chinese figures since 2011 not fully comparable with 2010, for CrMn steels in particular
Search for Alternatives to
Replace Nickel:
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Stainless Crude Steel Production 2010, 2011e and 2012pe by Categories
EuroAfrica Asia Americas World %
Provided by ISSF
Note: due to major corrections of Chinese figures since 2011 not fully comparable with 2010, for CrMn steels in particular
… however with regional differences:
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Asia and China Dominating:
Regional Market Shares of Apparent Demand
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Stainless Crude Steel Production:
Shift to Asia and China
19,187 20,690
22,840 24,570 24,546
+7.6% -0.1% +10.4% +7.8% -1.0%
28,706
+16.9
28,146
-2.0%
26,218
-6.8% -5.0%
24,904
+24.9
31,094
33,621
+5.2
36,363
n/a
* Major correction of Chinese figure for 2011, therefore not comparable with previous years
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Apparent Stainless Steel Use Growth
in 2012p, 2013e and 2014e
2012p 2013 e 2014 e
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Apparent Stainless Steel Use Growth
in 2012p, 2013e and 2014e
2012p 2013 e 2014 e
14
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