“would you tell me, please, which way i ought to walk from here?” asked alice of the cheshire...
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Better Results for Citizens: Strategy, Planning & Implementation
Dr Roger WaiteProject Manager, Pathfinder Project; NZ Treasury
http://io.ssc.govt.nz/pathfinder
1 July 2003
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“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to walk from here?” asked Alice of the Cheshire Cat.
“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to” said the Cat.
“I don't much care where” said Alice.
“Then it doesn't matter which way you walk” said the Cat.
“--so long as I get somewhere” Alice added as an explanation.
“Oh, you're sure to do that” said the Cat, “if you only walk long enough!”
Outcomes: A Way of Walking
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Map of Presentation
• Making strategic choices: macro & micro• Continuous improvement models• Interventions: planning for performance• Demonstrating value• Building a better future: management & culture
“From not really knowing … to reasonable confidence” (J. Mayne) “It is better to roughly right, than perfectly ignorant” (H. Hatry)
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Why Focus on Outcomes?Why Focus on Outcomes? One Reason … Three Threads
1. Outcomes – by definition – matter to New Zealanders
2. Value to citizens, residents, people
3. Taonga – what the public treasures
Goal: Strengthen outcome-focussed, evidence-based Goal: Strengthen outcome-focussed, evidence-based governance, at all levels of Governmentgovernance, at all levels of Government
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Why Pathfinder ?
Build NZ Capability to Deliver Results - at Programme, Agency, Sector and ‘Joined Up’ Levels
PATHFINDER
Managing forOutcomes(SOI / MfO)
Value-for-Money(VfM)
DECISION MAKING SYSTEMS; TOOLBOX;CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGY,CAPABILITY,
PERFORMANCE
TRADE-OFFS,TRANSFERS
Review of the Centre(ROC)
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Pathfinder’s Raison D’etre
After 10+ yrs, output funding has delivered
Quantum gains requires modified approach
Keep what works (output focus), but …
Complete public sector management modelLink outcomes (through outputs) to inputs
Meet requirements of legislation, parliament, etc
Ensure we deliver to citizens, taxpayers, people
Develop capability & management approach
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1. Strategy, Policy & Planning Strategy links outcomes to actions & resources Build mgmt systems (not measurement systems) Five step continuous improvement model Robust intervention design & monitoring systems
Using performance data in case mgmt systems Faster course correction during implementation Improve information on likely impact vs. cost
2. Managing Interventions
Accentuate the positive - Eliminate the negative- - - - Mary Poppins School of Management - - - -
Using Evidence to Improve Outcomes
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Who Makes Strategic Choices?
• The Minister or Ministers?• The Boss of Bosses? • General Managers? • Managers? • Planners & Policy Wonks?• Delivery Staff?• Business Analysts & Evaluators?
Good operators should - in their areas of responsibility We also influence strategic choices made around us
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Organisational Models
Source: Department of Conservation, NZStratified Systems Theory - Jacques
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Pathfinder’s Building Blocks• Strategic Planning• State Indicators• Intervention Logic • Impact Assessment • Optimising the Intervention Mix• Benchmarking• Operational Decision-making• Working Across Agencies
Use Building Blocks to Build Management SystemsUse Building Blocks to Build Management Systems
Living documents:Summary & guidance on
http://io.ssc.govt.nz/pathfinder
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STRATEGIC PLANNING & CAPABILITYSTRATEGIC PLANNING & CAPABILITYCore Outcomes
of AgencyDefined
StateIndicators
ImpactMeasures
Risk-basedTargeting
Tools
StrategicPriorities &
Planning
Benchmarking& Best Practice
MaximisingBenefits from
Intervention Mix
BusinessProcess Design
ManagementApplications
Linked OutcomeMeasures
After a business model used by the Department of Corrections
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Strategic Decision Making in an MfO Envionment
ContinuousImprovement
EnvironmentalScan; Identify
Outcomes
Measure StateIndicators
AssessOutputs &
Impact
ID Options;Deliver 'Best'Interventions
ID Major Areasfor Change(& Goals)
Where are we?(Did we get there?)
Where do wewant to go?
How do weget there?
How did we do?
AKA - “The Five Step Continuous
Improvement Model”
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Where are we?Where do we go?
0
1
2
3
4
5
15-
19
20-
24
25-
29
30-
34
35-
39
40-
44
45-
49
50-
54
55-
59
60-
64
65-
69
70-
74
75-
79
Age of driver
Dri
ver
fata
litie
s p
er
10
0 m
illio
n k
m
1989/901997/98
? FOCUS AREAS ?
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Strategic Decision Making in an MfO Envionment
ContinuousImprovement
EnvironmentalScan; Identify
Outcomes
Measure StateIndicators
AssessOutputs &
Impact
ID Options;Deliver 'Best'Interventions
ID Major Areasfor Change(& Goals)
Where are we?(Did we get there?)
Where do wewant to go?
How do weget there?
How did we do?
AKA - “The Five Step Continuous
Improvement Model”
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How Do We Get There?(Linking Outcomes to Funding Decisions)
Logic models provide a structured tool for working through an agencies intervention choices:
Which outcomes matter most Value of intervention options Define agency output mix ID poorly aligned effort / $$$
Individual interventions: Clarify objectives / design Identify & manage risk Gauge success
Outputs
Activities
Inputs
End/Final Outcomes
Intermediate Outcomes
Immediate Results
O2
A2
I2
O3
A3
I3
O4
A4
I4
IO
IR
Etc
Etc
Etc
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Planning for PerformancePlanning for Performance Policy … Design … Planning for Feedback … then Action
Plan(where do we want to go?)
Measures(how will we know when
we get there?)
Activities(to implement the plan)
Reports(did we reach our goal?)
The Policy Management Cycle: After Heather Daynard, Prospect Management Enterprises Inc, Canada
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Strategic Decision Making in an MfO Envionment
ContinuousImprovement
EnvironmentalScan; Identify
Outcomes
Measure StateIndicators
AssessOutputs &
Impact
ID Options;Deliver 'Best'Interventions
ID Major Areasfor Change(& Goals)
Where are we?(Did we get there?)
Where do wewant to go?
How do weget there?
How did we do?
AKA - “The Five Step Continuous
Improvement Model”
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Influence DiagramsMap problem chain (cause, effect & influences)
Logic ModelsIntervention design, ‘theory of impact’, risk
management & performance monitoring
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Logical Policy, Design & Monitoring
Outputs
Coverage
Near-term Results
Intermediate Outcomes
End Outcomes
To improve the lives of our people
Generate significant change …
Affect knowledge & behaviours …
Reaching intended areas & people …
Of integrity & right quantity …
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OUTPUT
IMMEDIATEIMPACT
INTERMEDIATEOUTCOME
ENDOUTCOME
thenif …
if …
if …
One Grand Hypothesis breaks into …
Three or more Mini-hypotheses (some of which can be tested)
then
then
From: Karen Baehler, Victoria University of Wellington
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Managing PerformanceManaging PerformanceOutputs … Coverage … Outcomes … Decision cycles
Time Delays
OUTPUTS OUTCOMES
QUANTITY& QUALITY
COVERAGENEAR-TERM
RESULTSINTERMEDIATE
OUTCOMESAGENCY ENDOUTCOMES
HIGH
LOW
MeasurementCosts
MeasurementChallenges
LINKAGE TOOUR ACTIONS
VALUE TOTHE NATION
RE
LA
TIV
E M
AG
NIT
UD
E
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Matching Measures to Uses
Long-Term Near-Term OutputsOutcomes Results
External UseAccountability to
Political Level
Program Advocacy
Budget Review
Public Communication
Internal UseStrategic Planning
Program Evaluation
Operational Planning
and Control
PerformanceAppraisal
Adapted by Heather Daynard & Roger Waite from: John R. Allen, Management Consultant
NZ
NZ
NZ
NZ
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Output Measures, Proxies, Predictors
(include with caveats)
Few Outcome
Measures Available
or Required
Ideal
Performance
Measures
Descriptive Statistics
(planning information)
LOW HIGH
HIGH
LOW
Degree of Control/Accountability
Degree of Measurabilit
y of Outcomes
From: Performance-Based Management at Forest Renewal BC
Measurability & Control
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Building a Better FutureBuilding a Better Future Focus effort … Demonstrate results … Learn & re-orientate
ContinuousImprovement
Measure StateIndicators
AssessOutputs &
Impact
ID Options;Deliver 'Best'Interventions
ID Major Areasfor Change(& Goals)
Where are we?(Did we get there?)
Where do we want to go?
How do we get there?How did we do?
• Manage cycles of change – not one-off gains
• Improve state indicators & targeting of effort
• Up-front policy / design – w. focus on monitoring
• Building evidence-base• Cultivation & weeding:
making hard decisions
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‘‘New’ Intervention ParadigmsNew’ Intervention Paradigms
• Changing the world (not just recipients of services)• Careful specification of problem chain • Balancing ‘what works’ vs. innovation• Ex ante design: outputs & getting performance info• Ex post analysis & redesign of interventions• Reallocation of resources
Policy staff / intervention designers responsibilities:
[a] Specify coherent intervention approach; & also [b] Designing systems to monitor key results
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Organisation & CultureAccentuating the Positive
Accept responsibility for achieving outcomes Renew intellectual capacity & agency creativity Integrated set of initiatives – backed by evidence (add
new initiatives to build on momentum / gains)
Analytical rigour / honesty, not mgmt. paraphernalia Reduce real complexity to ‘workable dimensions’ Active risk-taking, not passive risk avoidance
Build sector-wide knowledge, people, teams
From Tony Bliss, LTSA (NZ) & World Bank
Eliminating the negative
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Senior ManagementAccentuating the Positive
Strong leadership - Ambitious vision & targetsUnderstanding output-outcome links & the limits of
performance; set direction to surpass those limits (limits set by institutional & production frontiers)
Fund portfolio of investments & near-term outputsBacking evidence, esp. vs. conventional wisdomManaging productive multi-agency partnerships,
coordinated at senior levels (often CEO to CEO)
From Tony Bliss, LTSA (NZ) & World Bank
Systems that Build on Positive Results – and Eliminate the Negative
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Better Results for Citizens: Strategy, Planning & Implementation
Dr Roger WaiteProject Manager, Pathfinder Project; NZ Treasury
http://io.ssc.govt.nz/pathfinder
1 July 2003