wp4 – medium-term of forecasting food and water vulnerabilities and recommending relevant...
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WP4 – Medium-term of Forecasting food and water vulnerabilities and recommending relevant adaptation masuresEstablish a monitoring and forecasting warning system (based on ClimAfrica data) that produces prospective analyses about food insecurity and water crisis for the next 10 years.Integrate and harmonize ClimAfrica data with existing data and information to be used as inputs to develop improved vulnerability assessment and optimal adaptation options. - Natural Resources and Food Security – Systems at Risk (NaF-SAR) Integrate and harmonize ClimAfrica data with existing data and information to be used as inputs to develop improved vulnerability assessment and optimal adaptation options. A Risk framework is being used to provide a strategic context for the data and tools generated. The framework consists of 4 key stages: 1- Physiographic data related to hazard or environmental pressure; 2- Socio-economic data (people) 3- Risk assessment hot spotting based on (1) & (2) and the development of scenarios 4- Decision support
ClimAfrica: a new project for improving climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa
R.Valentini, A.Bombelli, E.GriecoEuromediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC)
Division of Climate Change Impacts on agriculture, forests and natural ecosystems (IAFENT)
CONTACTS - CLIMAFRICA COORDINATION OFFICE: Riccardo Valentini (project coordinator and Director of Division of Climate Change Impacts on agriculture, forests and natural ecosystems – IAFENT, [email protected] ) Antonio Bombelli (project manager, [email protected] ) Elisa Grieco ( [email protected] )WebSite: www.climafrica.net www.cmcc.it
The African ContextAfrica is probably the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, because of the combination of its low adaptive capacity with particular eco-climatic and socio-economic conditions (i.e. sea level rise, flooding, drought, desertification, land degradation, poverty, conflicts, migration, urbanization, population growth, diseases, etc.).African population mostly depend on the rural sector based on rain fed agriculture. Thus food production depends directly on climate making both the economy and livelihood significantly at risk by climate change.
WP2 - CMCC seasonal forecast and decadal prediction system• Seasonal retrospective forecast for 22 years (1989-2010). Four six-month-forecasts per
year, start dates 1st Feb, 1st May, 1st Aug, 1st Nov.• Decadal predictions. Twenty-year-simulations, start dates 1990-1995-2000-2005-2010,
November 1st. • Simulations are performed by means of a global climate model initialized with the best
observational products of ocean, land and atmosphere.
Outputs provided:• surface temperature• Precipitation• heat fluxes• winds• etc.
East Africa
WP6 – Case StudiesCharacterize the environmental and socio-economic conditions of 9 different Sub-Saharan African regions distributed along a wide climate gradient (Ghana, Burkina Faso, Togo, Malawi, Republic of Congo, Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia and Tanzania).The studies carried out in these regions will provide field data to other work packages for empirical model development and mechanistic model parametrization. In addition, the synergies developed with the existing actors (managers and policy-makers, NGO’s, local farmer’s organizations, women’s associations, etc.) during these studies will allow to test and validate both the individual model outputs and the Medium Term Warning System in these regions
Tchizalamou site, Congo
Project PartnershipThe ClimAfrica consortium is formed by 18 institutions, 9 from Europe, 8 from Africa, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). African countries directly involved are: Burkina Faso, Congo, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, Sudan and Togo.
Expected Results1) improved climate predictions over Africa2) evaluation of climate impacts on water resources and agriculture3) new adaptation strategies suited for Africa4) assessment of economic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation5) an operational medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system
Expected Results1) improved climate predictions over Africa2) evaluation of climate impacts on water resources and agriculture3) new adaptation strategies suited for Africa4) assessment of economic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation5) an operational medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system
ClimAfrica RationaleClimAfrica is conceived to respond to the urgent need for the most appropriate and up-to-date tools to better understand and predict climate change in Africa, assess its impact on African ecosystems and population, and develop suited adaptation strategies.
ClimAfrica Work PlanThe work is organized in eight complementary work-packages:WP1: Past climate variabilityWP2: Modelling seasonal to decadal climate predictionsWP3: Climate impactsWP4: Medium-term warning system, vulnerability, adaptationWP5: Socio-economic implicationsWP6: Case studies in AfricaWP7: Project ManagementWP8: Dissemination
ClimAfrica Work PlanThe work is organized in eight complementary work-packages:WP1: Past climate variabilityWP2: Modelling seasonal to decadal climate predictionsWP3: Climate impactsWP4: Medium-term warning system, vulnerability, adaptationWP5: Socio-economic implicationsWP6: Case studies in AfricaWP7: Project ManagementWP8: Dissemination
WP3 – Analysis of climate impacts on key ecosystem services (water-agric.)Quantify the sensitivity of vegetation productivity and water resources to seasonal, interannual and decadal variability in weather and climate, using impact models on agriculture and water
Identify tradeoffs and areas of risk and vulnerability related to: a) water related hazardsb) agricultural and pastoral performancec) soil degradation
…using an agroDVMclimate simulation data from WP2; information on past yield and water resources from WP1 and WP6)
WP1 – Past Climate VariabilityCollection and synthesis of various data streams that diagnose the variability of the climate, in particular the water cycle, and the productivity of ecosystems in the past decades. The data streams range from ground based observations and satellite remote sensing to model simulations. WP1 aims at providing consolidated data to other WPs in ClimAfrica, and at analyzing the interactions between climate variability, water availability, and ecosystem productivity of Sub-Saharan Africa.
Recent trends in the water cycle of Africa
WP5 – Socio-economic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation measures in SSAEconomic assessment of agriculture and water sector based on a Computable General Equilibrium analysis (ICES) to produce the “inaction” and the adaptation scenarios, for direct climate change impacts on agricultural activity and on the direct cost and effectiveness of adaptation strategies. Moreover, the spatially explicit and dynamic economic modelling of vulnerability will have to accommodate bio-physical vulnerabilities.
Crop Model
CO2 emissions Climate Change
Land Use Change
Crop yield Water use
ClimAfrica Objectives1- Develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal climatic scales, especially relevant to Sub-Saharan Africa2- Assess climate impacts in key sectors of Sub-Saharan Africa livelihood and economy, especially water resources and agriculture3- Evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and civil population to inter-annual variations and longer trends (10 years) in climate4- Suggest and analyse new suited adaptation strategies5- Develop a new concept of medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system (for food security, risk management, civil protection) 6- Analyse the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and water resources in Sub-Saharan Africa and the cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation measures.
ClimAfrica Objectives1- Develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal climatic scales, especially relevant to Sub-Saharan Africa2- Assess climate impacts in key sectors of Sub-Saharan Africa livelihood and economy, especially water resources and agriculture3- Evaluate the vulnerability of ecosystems and civil population to inter-annual variations and longer trends (10 years) in climate4- Suggest and analyse new suited adaptation strategies5- Develop a new concept of medium term monitoring and forecasting warning system (for food security, risk management, civil protection) 6- Analyse the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture and water resources in Sub-Saharan Africa and the cost-effectiveness of potential adaptation measures.
Partners from left to right :CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Scarl ULUND - Lunds Universitet CEA - Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique MPG - Max Planck Gesellschaft zur Foerderung der Wissenschaften E.V. VUA - Vereniging voor Christelijk Hoger Onderwijs Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek en Patientezorg CTFC - Centre Tecnologic Forestal de Catalunya PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research CIRAD - Centre de Cooperation International en recherche Agronomique pour le Developpement FAO-GTOS - Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations FAO SOW-VU - Stichting Onderzoek Wereldvoedselvoorziening van de Vrije Universiteit UR2PI - Unitè de Recherche sur la Productivité des Plantations Industrielles UCT - University of Cape Town BCA - University of Malawi LBEV - University of Lomé ARC - Agricultural Research Corporation ICPAC - Igad Centre for Climate Prediction and Application CSIR-CRI - Council for Scientific and Industrial Research - Crops Research Institute CERPINEDD - Cerpinedd Centre d'Étude de Recherche et de Production en Information pour l'Environnement et le Developpement Durable
7° Framework Programme of European Commission