wpa polling memo

2
324 Second Street, SE •Washington, DC 20003 1005 Congress, Ste 495 • Austin, TX 78701 1319 Classen Drive • Oklahoma City, OK 73103 202.470.6300 • @wparesearch www.wparesearch.com Global Perspective. Innovative Research. Superior Results. POLLING MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FROM: WILSON PERKINS ALLEN OPINION RESEARCH SUBJECT: HILLARY CLINTON DATE: MARCH 17, 2015 The Hillary Clinton Email Scandal More than one third (36%) of respondents have a less favorable impression of Hillary Clinton based on what they have seen, read, and heard about the email scandal. o Two in five (40%) independents have a less favorable impression of Clinton based on what they have seen, read, and heard about the email scandal. “Thinking about a current political scandal, would you say what you have seen, read, or heard recently about Hillary Clinton and her use of an unsecure personal email address for communications as Secretary of State as well as deleting many of those emails has given you a more favorable impression of her, a less favorable impression of her this issue hasn't impacted your impression of her, or have you not seen that much recently about the email scandal?” Result Overall (100%) Democrat (32%) Independent (35%) More Favorable 5% 7% 4% Has Not Impacted Impression 40% 61% 39% Have Not Seen/Read/Heard 14% 15% 14% Less Favorable 36% 13% 40% DK/Refused 4% 4% 3% Is Hillary Clinton a Good Presidential Nominee? Nearly three in ten (29%) of the n=316 Democrats say that Hillary Clinton has too much baggage to be a good Presidential nominee and/or are actively exploring other candidates. o More than one in five (22%) conservative Democrats say that Clinton has too much baggage to be a good Presidential nominee. o More than one third (39%) of moderate Democrats say that Clinton has too much baggage to be a good Presidential nominee and/or are actively exploring other candidates. “As you may know, Hillary Clinton has been involved in a number of scandals ranging from Benghazi to improper email documentation to just being a dishonest politician. Thinking about the Presidential election in 2016 would you say that she has too much baggage to be a good Presidential nominee for Democrats, her baggage will weigh her down and Democrats should actively explore other candidates, or the scandals are just a distraction and Clinton is the best option Democrats have for the Presidential election?” Result Democrat (100%) Conservative Democrat (24%) Moderate Democrat (31%) Liberal Democrat (41%) Has too much baggage to be a good Presidential nominee for Democrats 12% 22% 12% 7% The baggage will weigh her down and Democrats should actively explore other candidates 17% 6% 27% 16% The scandals are just a distraction and Clinton is the best option Democrats have for the Presidential election 59% 57% 47% 67% DK/Refused 12% 15% 14% 9%

Upload: washington-free-beacon

Post on 03-Oct-2015

167 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

WPA Polling Memo

TRANSCRIPT

  • 324 Second Street, SE Washington, DC 20003 1005 Congress, Ste 495 Austin, TX 78701

    1319 Classen Drive Oklahoma City, OK 73103 202.470.6300 @wparesearch

    www.wparesearch.com

    Global Perspective. Innovative Research. Superior Results.

    POLLING MEMORANDUM

    TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

    FROM: WILSON PERKINS ALLEN OPINION RESEARCH

    SUBJECT: HILLARY CLINTON

    DATE: MARCH 17, 2015

    The Hillary Clinton Email Scandal

    More than one third (36%) of respondents have a less favorable impression of Hillary Clinton based on what they have seen, read, and heard about the email scandal.

    o Two in five (40%) independents have a less favorable impression of Clinton based on what they have seen, read, and heard about the email scandal.

    Thinking about a current political scandal, would you say what you have seen, read, or heard recently about Hillary Clinton and her use of an unsecure personal email address for communications as Secretary of State as well as

    deleting many of those emails has given you a more favorable impression of her, a less favorable impression of her

    this issue hasn't impacted your impression of her, or have you not seen that much recently about the email scandal?

    Result Overall

    (100%)

    Democrat

    (32%)

    Independent

    (35%)

    More Favorable 5% 7% 4%

    Has Not Impacted Impression 40% 61% 39%

    Have Not Seen/Read/Heard 14% 15% 14%

    Less Favorable 36% 13% 40%

    DK/Refused 4% 4% 3%

    Is Hillary Clinton a Good Presidential Nominee?

    Nearly three in ten (29%) of the n=316 Democrats say that Hillary Clinton has too much baggage to be a good Presidential nominee and/or are actively exploring other candidates.

    o More than one in five (22%) conservative Democrats say that Clinton has too much baggage to be a good Presidential nominee.

    o More than one third (39%) of moderate Democrats say that Clinton has too much baggage to be a good Presidential nominee and/or are actively exploring other candidates.

    As you may know, Hillary Clinton has been involved in a number of scandals ranging from Benghazi to improper email documentation to just being a dishonest politician. Thinking about the Presidential election in 2016 would you say

    that she has too much baggage to be a good Presidential nominee for Democrats, her baggage will weigh her down

    and Democrats should actively explore other candidates, or the scandals are just a distraction and Clinton is the best

    option Democrats have for the Presidential election?

    Result Democrat

    (100%)

    Conservative

    Democrat

    (24%)

    Moderate

    Democrat

    (31%)

    Liberal

    Democrat

    (41%)

    Has too much baggage to be a good

    Presidential nominee for Democrats 12% 22% 12% 7%

    The baggage will weigh her down and

    Democrats should actively explore other

    candidates

    17% 6% 27% 16%

    The scandals are just a distraction and

    Clinton is the best option Democrats have

    for the Presidential election

    59% 57% 47% 67%

    DK/Refused 12% 15% 14% 9%

  • 2015 WPA Opinion Research

    Do not copy or distribute without permission

    Confidential Page 2 of 2 3/17/2015

    Conclusion

    More than one third of adults have a less favorable impression of Hillary Clinton based on what they have seen,

    read, and heard about the recent email scandal where Clinton has been using an unsecure personal email

    address for communications as Secretary of State as well as deleting many of those emails. While the scandal

    has not done much to alter Democrats impression of Clinton, forty percent of independents have a less favorable impression of her.

    Nearly thirty percent of Democrats say that Hillary Clinton has too much baggage to be a good Presidential

    nominee for Democrats or that her baggage will weigh her down and Democrats should actively explore other

    candidates. One in five conservative Democrats say that Hillary Clinton has too much baggage to be a good

    Presidential nominee while nearly three in ten moderate Democrats say that her baggage will weigh her down

    and Democrats should actively explore other candidates.

    Methodology

    Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research conducted a national study of adults. WPA selected a random sample of

    adults using Random Digit Dialing (RDD). The sample for this survey was stratified based on gender, age,

    ethnicity, and geography. This methodology allows us to minimize post-survey weighting which can reduce the reliability of survey results.

    Respondents were contacted by phone via a live telephone operator interview March 12th-15th, 2015. The first

    question has a sample size of 1,002 adults with a margin of error of 3.1% in 95 out of 100 cases. The second

    question has a sample size of 316 self-identified Democrats with a margin of error of 5.7% in 95 out of 100

    cases.

    About Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

    Since 1998, WPA Opinion Research has been a leading provider of political polling for campaigns from President

    to Governor and U.S. Senate to Mayor and City Council in all 50 states and several foreign countries. In the

    2013-2014 election cycle, 83% of WPA clients won, compared to 62% of GOP candidates in those same states.

    WPA clients' win ratio has exceeded the standard by double digits for four straight political cycles.

    In Texas, WPA is proud to be the pollster to Governor Greg Abbott, Senator Ted Cruz, six other statewide office

    holders and 34 Members of the State Legislature.

    WPA has been nationally recognized for providing cutting edge research to help our clients win. The American

    Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) awarded a Pollie to WPA for our Predictive Analytics and Adaptive Sampling techniques. The award highlighted these advanced methodologies which allowed us to buck national

    GOP polling trends and deliver industry-leading results.

    In addition to our political and policy research, WPA has conducted market research for more than 110 fortune

    500 corporations, donor research for more than 200 of the largest and most successful not-for-profit

    organizations around the country, and alumni research for dozens of colleges and universities.