wpa's weekly political brief 120420
TRANSCRIPT
Page 1
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief April 20, 2012
Page 2
WPA’s Key Weekend Charts
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political
environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates
every Friday.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• Romney’s position coming out of the primary
• Republican’s vice presidential preferences
Page 3
Weekly Summary
Obama’s approval has been split for months now, and most Americans continue to disapprove of his
handling of the economy. While Republicans and Democrats both decreased slightly on the generic
ballot, the Republican lead remains.
Talk and worry about the damaging and lengthy Republican primary seems to have been overblown
as Republicans rally around the standard bearer.
• Romney has shown steady increases in his ballot position since the middle of February,
while Obama has decreased and remains below 50%.
• Gallup’s most recent data show Romney with a five point lead overall, and he receives as
much support among Republicans as Obama does among Democrats.
• Nearly a quarter of Republican voters would like to see Condoleeza Rice as the vice
presidential candidate.
Page 4
Americans remain pessimistic about the direction of the country.
Source: Real Clear Politics
36%
29% 29%
20% 18%
30% 32%
57%
63% 63%
75%
64% 63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
Direction of the County
Approve Disapprove
Page 5
Obama continues to maintain his split image.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 49% 47%
Disapprove 46% 47%
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
48% 49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
48%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
Page 6
Gallup’s unadjusted unemployment rate declined to 8.2%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is not seasonally adjusted
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
March 8.2%
7.00% 7.50% 8.00% 8.50% 9.00% 9.50%
10.00% 10.50% 11.00% 11.50%
Gallup Data
April 8.2%
Page 7
$138,231
$1,323,671,758,256
$15,674,585,589,156
The national debt continues to escalate.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Taxpayer
Federal Budget Deficit
Page 8
While Obama’s economic rating has improved slightly since last fall, most Americans continue to disapprove of his economic performance.
Source: Pollster.com
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
4-F
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Obama Economic Approval
Approve Disapprove
54%
40%
Page 9
41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%
39%
46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
Both parties saw their generic vote drop slightly this week, though Republicans continue to lead.
Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains
49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%
45%
0%
50%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010
Previous Election Day Generic Ballots
R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats
Page 10
Romney clearly has momentum as he moves out of the Republican primary.
Source: Pollster.com
Page 11
Gallup’s most recent poll shows Romney with a five point lead. Gallup data from a similar time period shows Romney receiving at least as much support from Republicans as Obama receives from Democrats.
Source: Gallup 4/14-18
Romney 48%
Undecided/Other
9%
Obama 43%
Ballot Overall
90%
45%
6%
4%
16%
4%
6%
39%
90%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Repubicans Independents Democrats
Support by Party
Barack Obama
Other/DK/Ref
Mitt Romney
Page 12
Most Republicans are looking for a familiar face as their vice presidential candidate. Rick Santorum may have the recency bias working for him, but Condoleeza Rice is the top choice for Republicans.
Source: CNN/ORC 4/13-15
26%
21%
14%
14%
8%
5%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Rice
Santorum
Christie
Rubio
Ryan
Jindall
McDonnell
Vice Presidential Pick
Page 13
For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:
Bryon Allen Partner and COO
202.470.6300
E-mail:
Chris Perkins Partner
202.494.3084
E-mail:
Chris Wilson Partner and CEO
405.286.6500
E-mail:
Brian Smith Vice President
405.640.9517
Ryan Steusloff Vice President
202.470.6300