10/21/10 7:49 PMWriting for National Review Has Rotted Avik Roy's Brain - Grasping Reality with Both Hands

Page 1 of 8http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/09/writing-for-national-review-has-rotted-avik-roys-brain.html

Grasping Reality with Both HandsThe Semi-Daily Journal of Economist J. Bradford DeLong: Fair, Balanced, Reality-Based, and Even-HandedDepartment of Economics, U.C. Berkeley #3880, Berkeley, CA 94720-3880; 925 7080467; delong@econ.berkeley.edu.

Economics 210aWeblog ArchivesDeLong Hot on GoogleDeLong Hot on Google BlogsearchSeptember 23, 2010

Writing for National Review Has Rotted Avik Roy's Brain

Does he have no true friends? I think an intervention is called for. If we can get himout of the toxic intellectual environment of that culture of ignorance, perhaps he canstill be saved...

Avik Roy:

The Pledge to America on Health Care: [T]he Pledge says almost nothing about thebiggest and most difficult questions in health policy: Medicare and Medicaidreform. It criticizes PPACA’s “massive Medicare cuts” without offering analternative solution... promises that Republicans “will make the decisions that arenecessary to protect our entitlement programs for today’s seniors and futuregenerations. That means requiring a full accounting of Social Security, Medicare,and Medicaid, setting benchmarks for these programs and reviewing themregularly, and preventing the expansion of unfunded liabilities.” About as bracingas a glass of milk.

But perhaps it would have been unrealistic to expect more. Democrats haveengaged in their fair share of entitlement demagoguery, which is likely to intensifyas we get closer to the election. Up to this point, the President has not shown aserious interest in entitlement reform...

Let us look at Figure A-3 from the Congressional Budget Office's Long Term BudgetOutlook--the CBO's projections of what the budget balance will look like for the nextseventy years if the economic forecast is fulfilled and if congress sticks to PAYGO:

Dashboard Blog Stats Edit Post

10/21/10 7:49 PMWriting for National Review Has Rotted Avik Roy's Brain - Grasping Reality with Both Hands

Page 2 of 8http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/09/writing-for-national-review-has-rotted-avik-roys-brain.html

Back in 2009 the CBO projected the emergence after 2025 of a large structural gapbetween primary spending and revenues as the health programs grew to take over theworld, and projected a federal debt held by the public that hit 200% of GDP before2070--even if congress did nothing to violate PAYGO.

Today the CBO projects that the public debt will stay below a year's GDP until all of usnow full-grown are dead.

Why? Because of two "entitlement reforms" by Obama: the IPAB that puts a brake onthe growth of Medicare costs, and the excise tax on high-cost health plans that raiserevenue.

Rather than saying "the President has not shown a serious interest in entitlementreform," it would be closer to the truth for Avik Roy to say: "Obama did entitlementreform through the PPACA, and I did not notice."

Indeed, the fact that Avik Roy--and lots of other people--did not notice what currentlaw plus PAYGO implies is what leads Doug Elmendorf at the CBO to fear that the

10/21/10 7:49 PMWriting for National Review Has Rotted Avik Roy's Brain - Grasping Reality with Both Hands

Page 3 of 8http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/09/writing-for-national-review-has-rotted-avik-roys-brain.html

policies enacted in the PPACA will not stand, and leads him to present an AlternativeFiscal Scenario in which the cost-containing and revenue-raising portions of the billare repealed in fairly short order.

It is a fair criticism of Obama to say that his entitlement reforms may not last. It is nota fair criticism to claim that they were not done--or that he has "not shown a seriousinterest."

Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?

Brad DeLong on September 23, 2010 at 12:15 PM in Economics, Economics: FiscalPolicy, Economics: Health, Information: Better Press Corps/Journamalism, ObamaAdministration, Politics | Permalink

Reblog (0) |

Favorite

| Digg This | Save todel.icio.us | Tweet This!

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00e551f080038834013487a13253970cListed below are links to weblogs that reference Writing for National Review Has Rotted AvikRoy's Brain:

Comments

Robert Waldmann said...Yes Obama and the Democrats reformed entitlements, Roy didn't notice, and electedRepublicans screamed bloodless murder (by death panel). However, the baselineforecast is totally bogus. Obama and the Democrats also want to extend Bush tax cutson incomes under $250,000. That's not current law and not in the baseline and it'sobviously going to happen.

It looks like the tax cuts on income over $250,000 will be extended too (even after allthese years I am shocked and appalled by the Democrats fecklessness and theRepublicans ruthless dedication to tax cuts for the rich).

The change due to entitlement reform was huge, but you should have mentioned thefact that the baseline forecasts are useful for measuring that change but not useful forforecasting.

Reply September 23, 2010 at 12:37 PMJohn Howard Brown said...I love the Democratic Party very much, elected Democratic officials, not so much.Witness the news today that neither House nor Senate will take up tax cuts prior to theelection. Maybe we actually need two new parties, a replacement for both Ds and Rs.

Reply September 23, 2010 at 01:39 PMDrDick said...I think it is more accurate to say that your brain has to be decomposing before you are

10/21/10 7:49 PMWriting for National Review Has Rotted Avik Roy's Brain - Grasping Reality with Both Hands

Page 4 of 8http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/09/writing-for-national-review-has-rotted-avik-roys-brain.html

allowed to write at the Natinal Review.

Reply September 23, 2010 at 03:04 PMLewismd13 said...I'm glad I'm not the only one who noticed that. I called him out on twitter for it, butI'm nobody, so I doubt he listened. I'm also annoyed that the very smart people over atThe Agenda constantly talk about the need to end the employer insurance tax break,but don't give Obama credit for the excise tax, which is a first step towards that.

Reply September 23, 2010 at 03:28 PMjony mark said...new website look greathttp://www.7ria.com/http://abraj.7ria.com/

thnx u

Reply September 23, 2010 at 03:44 PMmarcel said...Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?

Upton Sinclair provided 1 plausible explanation: "It is difficult to get a man tounderstand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!"

Reply September 23, 2010 at 04:04 PMmickster99 said...Let's go for a sort of Reagan/Greenspan 80's solution to Social Security solvencyissues: raise the income levels on which Federal Tax withholding tax is withheld andthen make it a progressive tax instead of regressive. Full disclosure: I got my SS cardin 1963 and paid the withholding taxes for 45 years.

Reply September 23, 2010 at 04:43 PMmickster99 said...Dr. De Long. One your biggest failings is your unrelenting reliance on facts and specificcharts that support your point of view. This is entirely ineffective on a certaindemographic that has an effective literacy rate well below that of the most struggling ofthird world economies. Have you considered something more effective like a chalkboard and maybe some big color pictures of George Washington and TommyJefferson?

Reply September 23, 2010 at 04:48 PMBob said...Avik is a typical intelligent Indian in America. Excessively arrogant, completely unableto grasp that he is a beneficiary of anti-white discrimination, desperate to conformwith fantastic and imaginary British aristocratic mannerisms, all combined with thesense of entitlement and decadence that comes with those who rode the top of themulticultural meritocratic dictatorship. Worse, his entire "career" was simply riding thepost dot com bubble as yet another agent of usury. You should have seen the cretin inthe year leading up to the crash - the worst kind of sociopathic neocon you canimagine.

Reply September 23, 2010 at 07:27 PMsave_the_rustbelt said...Does all of this PPACA (Obamacare) will actually work?

The odds of that Rube Goldberg monstrosity actually working are pretty slim.

10/21/10 7:49 PMWriting for National Review Has Rotted Avik Roy's Brain - Grasping Reality with Both Hands

Page 5 of 8http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/09/writing-for-national-review-has-rotted-avik-roys-brain.html

Reply September 23, 2010 at 08:43 PMManik said in reply to Bob...I am usually a passive follower of this blog, but I had to sign-in to respond to theIndophobic racialist lies and drivel posted by 'Bob'. I'd like to point out that Americansof Indian descent are NOT eligible for AA of any kind - nor do they need it. I'd also befar more careful in associating usury with ethnicity, considering that most banks andsimilar institutions are controlled by people of the melanin-deficient variety. Perhapspeople like 'Bob' and his ilk need to examine what feeds THEIR deep sense ofentitlement, their craving for dominance and control, their resentment and hostilitytoward successful dark-skinned people. I suspect it is because the 'Bobs' of this worldare discovering (to their anguish, evidently) that white-skin is no longer the free-lunchticket it was in the past.

Reply September 23, 2010 at 10:45 PMRW said in reply to save_the_rustbelt...You say this sort of thing a lot Rusty but never mention supporting facts nor contraryscenarios; e.g., if PPACA doesn't work then 40 million fellow citizens remain uninsuredwith more falling into the crack daily and the national debt increases dramatically overthe long haul (CBO estimates).

So why should anyone be (rather passively) concerned that PPACA "might not work"rather than actively engaged as a citizen in an effort to make it work?

Reply September 24, 2010 at 08:29 AMAlex said...Do you think it might have something to do with the fact that the extended-baselinescenario assumes that the Medicare physician payment cuts will be implemented undercurrent law?

Reply September 24, 2010 at 08:38 AMostap said..."after 2025" After 2025?!? At least 9 years after he leaves office? You believe that's"serious"? Why? Oh, why?

Reply September 24, 2010 at 09:44 AMrv said in reply to mickster99...Meritocratic dictatorship?

The mind reels at such a concept.

Reply September 26, 2010 at 08:23 PMComment below or sign in with TypePad Facebook Twitter and more...

10/21/10 7:49 PMWriting for National Review Has Rotted Avik Roy's Brain - Grasping Reality with Both Hands

Page 6 of 8http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/09/writing-for-national-review-has-rotted-avik-roys-brain.html

Me: Economists:

PaulKrugmanMark ThomaCowen andTabarrokChinn andHamiltonBrad Setser

Juicebox

Mafia:

Ezra KleinMatthewYglesiasSpencerAckermanDanaGoldsteinDanFroomkin

Moral

Philosophers:

Hilzoy andFriendsCrookedTimber ofHumanityMarkKleiman andFriendsEricRauchwayand FriendsJohn Holboand Friends

Post Preview

First, Kill all the PensionsThe Atlantic (blog) - Oct 19, 2010She may or may not have been the first major economics blogger, depending onwhether we are allowed to throw outlying variables such as Brad Delong out of ...Related Articles » « Previous Next »

economics DeLong

10/21/10 7:49 PMWriting for National Review Has Rotted Avik Roy's Brain - Grasping Reality with Both Hands

Page 7 of 8http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/09/writing-for-national-review-has-rotted-avik-roys-brain.html

10/21/10 7:49 PMWriting for National Review Has Rotted Avik Roy's Brain - Grasping Reality with Both Hands

Page 8 of 8http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/09/writing-for-national-review-has-rotted-avik-roys-brain.html